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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final Round 1 Analysis
The biggest surprise in round one may be that no major upsets took place, in contrast to each of the last few seasons. Last year, for example, all of the top four seeds in the West were knocked out. While #5 in the West and #6 in the East won their series this year, neither can be considered upsets and in fact more poolies bet on San Jose and NY Rangers than Nashville and Atlanta. The only case where the "pool favourite" was knocked out - and the only team with a sizeable number of picks - is Pittsburgh, which had a 109-96 edge over Ottawa. Calculated risk Conventional wisdom says that you should not pick players from both teams in the same series (especially in round one). But in this pool, a calculated risk was taken by 12 people - including round one leader Keith Chappell - who took Ottawa players and Sidney Crosby. Was it the irresistable urge to take Crosby no matter what? Or a calculated risk that even if Pittsburgh lost, Sid the Kid would get enough points either way? Regardless of the answer, these poolies will need to be satisfied with Crosby's 5 points. Not a wasted pick, but not a difference-maker, either. Tampa Bay forwards the only real impact The offence in round one didn't really come from where it was expected - Ottawa, Buffalo, Detroit - but it did come from NY Rangers and Tampa Bay. The Lightning's elimination is the only one that knocks out players that made much difference on the scoresheet. The trio of Martin St.Louis (8 points), Brad Richards (8), and Vincent Lecavalier (7) were at the top of the player charts and they account for 24 picks in total. Everything else being equal in round two, this impacts most on Jason Collette - projected to drop 75 places - and Duncan Campbell - 37 places. In contrast there are numerous people slated to jump about 24 places. Projected round 2 scores are listed at the bottom of the page. Biggest Bust With everyone performing reasonably as expected and no major picks getting shut out and knocked out, it is not so easy to identify a Biggest Bust for 2007. The natural choice would be Teemu Selanne's two points for 61 picks, but he's still playing. Sidney Crosby got five points for 57 entries which is not exactly a bust - he's the only player knocked out with more than 20 picks. So I reserve the right to change this after round 2 if something exceptional happens, but from the slim pickings available, it must be Paul Kariya who had one point for the 13 people who picked him. Biggest busts over the years: 2007 - Kariya (?); 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik. Best dark horse picks The best picks taken by few people are goalie Henrik Lundqvist, with 9 points for Tim Smith, and his teammate Michael Nylander, with 8 points for Becke Gainforth and David Loop. Brad Richards also scored 8 points for only Duncan Campbell but Richards has been eliminated so he can't exactly be a dark horse anymore. The best pick not taken by anyone was Marty Turco. Round 2 predictions Team and Player Stats:
Projected Round 2 Standings Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1, so Scott Gomez would get another 9 points and Ray Emery another shutout. |
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