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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Mike Smith
Mike Smith had two shutouts in the series win to match Connor McDavid with a pool-leading 14 points.

Round 1 Analysis
The Champa Bay Lightning are back. Their game seven triumph reminds us that the road to the Cup goes through the two-time champs. For the Leafs, it was an unfortunate draw after a good season and a strong round one performance. No need to blow up the team, but improvements are still needed.

The Leafs' defeat was the only significant one, with 308 picks eliminated affecting 129 entries, while the other seven losing teams combine for 284 picks. With all but one remaining teams over 100 picks (except St. Louis' 47), there is a strong field of entries with high scoring players for round two.

Overall, just 19.8% of all picks were eliminated, the fourth-lowest in the pool's 24 seasons.

Round 2 has two provincial tilts with big consequences: the Battle of Alberta has 700 picks in play (Calgary, 469 vs Edmonton, 231) while the Sunshine Series has 662 (Florida, 389 vs Tampa Bay, 273). These two series will likely be the most pivotal in this year's pool.

First round leader turns in a record performance
Stacey Hartley picked the top players still in the pool (Edmonton, Colorado) and the top players eliminated (Brad Marchand, Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews), earning her a record score that might stay in the books for years to come. It is also likely to earn Stacey a tumble in the round 2 standings (projected 11th).

Rishi Mistri is projected to rise from 9th into the top spot with 150 points, based on the projected standings below. See whether you are expected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same, below.

Record high single-night scoring
Only twice before this year had an entry collected 20 points in one night - in 2016, when Connor Brewster set a record with 21, and in 2018. May 3 was a high-scoring night for the ages as Andrew Wood set a new high of 22 while two others had 20 and one had 19. Four of the six highest point-getting nights in 24 years were on the same night.

Unscathed or wiped out
For the second straight year, the pool collective has achieved the feat of having no one lose all nine players after Round 1. Last year was the first time since 2011 and this year marks a best-ever 332 entries without any wipeouts. Well done everyone! See the interesting chart below and feel a job well done.

Year  EntriesWipeoutsWipeout %
19981600
19991800
20003339.1
20014000
20023912.6
20036734.5
200410200
200610421.9
200713221.5
200818921.1
200918500
201019710.5
201120500
20122332611.2
201324720.8
201421410.5
201527320.7
201626151.9
201727351.8
201835010.3
201934913939.8
202019963
202128700
202233200

For the third time ever, over 100 entries were unscathed, losing no players. 128 unscathed entries is 39% of the pool, behind the 150 of 350 (43%) in the largest pool in 2018, and 108 of 205 (53%) in 2011.

Biggest Bust award
How do you pick a bust when there is none? Toronto had the only eliminated players picked enough to be a bust, and they all performed admirably. We will see after round two.

(ed.: 2022 winner added after R2)
Biggest busts over the years: 2022 - Huberdeau; 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 117 picks; Marner, Tor, 84; Reilly, Tor, 58; Kaprizov, Min, 41; Marchand, Bos, 36, Crosby, Pit, 23; Pastrnak, Bos, 23; Campbell, Tor, 21.

Kronis' Corner - notes from the pool's stats co-pilot Joel Kronis
You get a game Seven, You get a game Seven, You get a game Seven. That was the story of the first round as 5 of 8 series went the distance and two of the other three went six. Colorado looked dominant sweeping the Nashville Predators and scored more than 5 goals in 3 of 4 games including scoring 7 twice. I also have to address the elephant in the room: the Leafs losing again in 7 games a 2-1 Nick Paul masterclass loss was the decider. Though not favourable for the Leafs, the second round matchups bring some pretty good matchups: a playoff Battle of Alberta and a Sunshine State Rivalry. If I were to place a bet I would say Calgary, Tampa Bay, New York and Colorado will win. We'll see what actually happens though!

Round 2 predictions
After going 6-for-8 in round one picks, missing only the Rangers and Blues, I'll take Tampa Bay, Carolina, Colorado and Calgary.

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Connor McDavid EDM 14 114
Carter Verhaege FLA 12 0
Mika Zibanejad NYR 11 20
Brad Marchand BOS 11 36
Jake Guentzel PIT 10 7
Sidney Crosby PIT 10 23
David Perron STL 9 3
Evander Kane EDM 9 7
Leon Draisaitl EDM 9 78
Auston Matthews TOR 9 117
Sebastian Aho CAR 7 90
Mikko Rantanen COL 7 109
Defense Team Pts Picks
Adam Fox NYR 10 53
Cale Makar COL 10 236
Jaccob Slavin CAR 8 4
Anthony DeAngelo CAR 8 22
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Mike Smith EDM 14 7
Jacob Markstrom CGY 10 93
Jake Oettinger DAL 8 0
Jonathan Quick LOS 8 0
Jack Campbell TOR 8 21
Teams
INPicksCups
Colorado695103
Calgary46949
Florida38953
Tampa Bay27331
Edmonton2318
NY Rangers17312
Carolina1196
St. Louis474
OUTPicksCups
Toronto30850
Boston884
Minnesota796
Pittsburgh541
Washington263
Nashville251
Dallas91
Los Angeles30

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Nathan MacKinnon would get another 10 points, while Marc-Andre Fleury would again get four wins, a shutout, and an assist.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
91Rishi Mistry15075000.0%EDM
102Hugh McShane14874000.0%EDM
102Nolan Ash14874000.0%CGY
144Brett Kirkpatrick14673000.0%NYR
144Paul Ornstein14673000.0%CGY
196Graham Haines14472000.0%EDM
196Zai Hammerman14472000.0%TBL
196Jeff Wener14472000.0%COL
249Isaac Nielsen14271000.0%TBL
249Jamie Martin14271000.0%TBL
111Stacey Hartley1408533035.3%FLA
1411Ava McAdam-Beder14073168.2%COL
213Allan Crisford1398132328.4%COL
213Paul Martin1398132328.4%TOR
213Frank Pileggi1398132328.4%COL
4416Azra Champsi13869000.0%NYR
4416Bruce Bird13869000.0%EDM
5418Zack O'Gorman13668000.0%TBL
5418Douglas Wilkinson13668000.0%NYR
2420Zayn Champsi134711811.3%TBL
7220Tyler Dominato13467000.0%COL
7220Colby Foster13467000.0%COL
7220Steve Vinette13467000.0%COL
7220Scott Lee13467000.0%COL
7220Manny Amaral13467000.0%TBL
526Jonas Struthers1337932531.6%TOR
726Justin Gritten1337631925.0%CGY
2428Geraldine Comeau1327121014.1%MIN
9028Brett Bowman13266000.0%COL
9028Tyler Robinson13266000.0%COL
9028Andrew Rudy13266000.0%FLA
9028Leo Gaudet13266000.0%TBL
9028Mike Cuddemi13266000.0%CGY
3534Ronan Walsh131701912.9%COL
2435Micheal Nguyen1307121216.9%TBL
10835John Thompson13065000.0%TBL
10835Brett Bowman13065000.0%CGY
10835Tim Smith13065000.0%TBL
10835Christina Laronga13065000.0%COL
10835Mark Norman13065000.0%COL
4441Tom Nicholl129691913.0%COL
2442Paul Markowski1287121419.7%CGY
4442Shannon Brewster1286911014.5%CGY
5442Michael McShane128681811.8%CAR
5442Adam Kazmi128681811.8%CGY
11942Dylan Montague12864000.0%FLA
11942Stacy Martin12864000.0%EDM
11942Daisy Marquez12864000.0%TBL
11942Ace Mandel12864000.0%CGY
11942Dave Spedding12864000.0%CGY
11942Nolan Sarner12864000.0%CGY
11942Mark Brewster12864000.0%COL
11942Ryan Chirnomas12864000.0%CGY
11942Jerry Gluss12864000.0%TBL
9055Ted Kennedy12766157.6%NYR
3556Frank Peragine1267021420.0%CGY
13556Cooper Levens12663000.0%COL
13556Colin McSweeney12663000.0%CGY
13556Paul Groba12663000.0%COL
13556Lizzy Freed12663000.0%COL
13556Lucas Chua12663000.0%COL
1062Jack Budd1257432331.1%CGY
2462Joel Kronis1257121723.9%COL
2462Crystal Smalldon1257121723.9%FLA
3562Shawn Morrison1257021521.4%CGY
5462Erin Ash1256811116.2%TBL
5462Muhammad Kazmi1256811116.2%CGY
7262Ford Hatchett125671913.4%CGY
9069Kamerni Pillay124661812.1%COL
15269Marie Loop12462000.0%NYR
15269Jessica Thompson12462000.0%FLA
15269Karen Stern12462000.0%COL
15269Marc Dupuis12462000.0%CAR
15269Aaron Allard12462000.0%NYR
15269Peta Allard12462000.0%COL
15269Andrew Daszczynski12462000.0%FLA
15269Claudia Scarciolla-Winkler12462000.0%CGY
4478Amy van Steendelaar1236921521.7%NYR
11979Trish Robichaud12264169.4%COL
16779Jake Court12261000.0%COL
16779Chris Daigle12261000.0%COL
16779Al Champsi12261000.0%COL
16779Dennis Winkler12261000.0%TBL
16779Eric Marquez12261000.0%TBL
785Zackary Winkler1217643140.8%TOR
1985Trevor Harding1217232331.9%COL
3585Matt Hartley1217021927.1%COL
9085Jack Walker1216611116.7%COL
10885Neil Poitras121651913.8%COL
9090Connor Brewster1206621218.2%TBL
18190Mouli Ramani12060000.0%FLA
18190Lindsay Reid12060000.0%COL
18190Shawn Robichaud12060000.0%COL
18190Jamie Sarner12060000.0%NYR
18190Paul Smits12060000.0%CGY
18190Shain Griffin12060000.0%COL
697Samuel Wexler1197753545.5%EDM
2497Josh Martin1197132332.4%TOR
3599Julian Vardy1187032231.4%CGY
13599Michael Varriano118631812.7%TBL
13599Ben Bangs118631812.7%CGY
13599Shane Kozlowich118631812.7%NYR
19299Corby Fine11859000.0%COL
19299Todd Foster11859000.0%COL
19299Kerrieann Helland11859000.0%CGY
19299Mike Johnson11859000.0%TBL
19299Sam Kozlowich11859000.0%COL
19299Adam Marrus11859000.0%FLA
19299David Loop11859000.0%CGY
19299Mary Morrison11859000.0%COL
19299Dan Meister11859000.0%COL
19299Tim Sowden11859000.0%FLA
19299KC Swink11859000.0%CGY
19299Steve Sealy11859000.0%COL
19299Blair Miller11859000.0%FLA
19299Russell Reed11859000.0%COL
19299Scott Poitras11859000.0%COL
19299Matthew Pledger11859000.0%CGY
19299Vince Pileggi11859000.0%COL
19299Cathy Bruno11859000.0%CGY
19299Pierre Allard11859000.0%NYR
14122Colin Kennedy1177342939.7%TOR
24122Nathan Slack1177132535.2%TOR
54122James Smith1176831927.9%COL
72122Garen Roukhkian1176721725.4%TOR
135122Joffre Pharand117631914.3%TBL
19127Campbell Clark-Smith1167242838.9%TOR
90127Craig Endicott1166621624.2%CGY
221127Chris Daszczynski11658000.0%FLA
221127Edward Levens11658000.0%CAR
221127Erin Jones11658000.0%NYR
35132Simon Rabinovitch1157032535.7%TOR
44132Thomas Smith1156932333.3%COL
44132Sajjad Champsi1156932333.3%FLA
44132Alan Eng1156932333.3%TOR
72132Nick Goodchild1156731928.4%COL
72132Stephen Chamberlain1156731928.4%TOR
72132Jonah Rabinovitch1156731928.4%FLA
152132Angela West115621914.5%FLA
152132Sean Desjardins115621914.5%COL
44141Andrew Wood1146932434.8%CGY
192141Michael Parak11459146.8%EDM
231141Ruth Beder11457000.0%COL
231141Rob Phillips11457000.0%COL
231141Andrew Ryan11457000.0%FLA
231141Thomas Cheyne Matheson11457000.0%STL
54147Dave Michael1136832333.8%TOR
54147Fraser Macdonald1136832333.8%TOR
54147Stacy Robichaud1136832333.8%COL
54147Aaron Pretto1136832333.8%COL
54147Tina Speciale1136832333.8%TOR
54147Marc Ennis1136832333.8%COL
54147Ron Ego1136832333.8%STL
108147Evan Brooker1136521726.2%TOR
119147Zoe Rabinovitch1136421523.4%COL
167147Adam Jamieson113611914.8%FLA
54157Michael Sinclair1126832435.3%TOR
54157Harris Beder1126832435.3%TOR
72157Jeff Wood1126732232.8%COL
72157Brandon Poitras1126732232.8%COL
72157Phil Victor1126732232.8%COL
119157George Wandziak1126421625.0%CGY
119157Richard Gretzinger1126421625.0%FLA
240157Denise Allard11256000.0%COL
240157Alex Cleveland11256000.0%TBL
240157Ethan Craig11256000.0%COL
240157Ron Weidner11256000.0%FLA
240157Norrin Ripsman11256000.0%COL
240157Tom Sheahan11256000.0%COL
240157Ajumi Marquez11256000.0%FLA
240157Samara McAdam11256000.0%FLA
240157Austin Neilson11256000.0%COL
240157Doug Frazier11256000.0%CGY
10174Adam Pileggi1117463750.0%TOR
54174Ryan Slack1116832536.8%TOR
72174Iver Dart1116732334.3%TOR
72174Dave Bagnell1116732334.3%TOR
72174Joel Greenstein1116732334.3%CGY
14179Alistair Viegas1107343649.3%COL
152179Cale Phibbs1106221422.6%COL
258179Laura Tackaberry11055000.0%COL
35182Luke McEachnie1097053144.3%TOR
72182Daniel Levay1096732537.3%TOR
90182Anthony Bruno1096632334.8%TOR
90182Gwen Clark-Smith1096632334.8%TOR
90182Jon Tafler1096632334.8%TOR
90182George Smith1096632334.8%TOR
90182Andrew Robichaud1096632334.8%TOR
90182Andrew MacIntyre1096632334.8%COL
35190Andre Dube1087043245.7%BOS
90190Joe Laronga1086632436.4%TOR
90190Mike De Petrillo1086632436.4%COL
262190Jeff Williams10854000.0%COL
262190Domenic DeMarco10854000.0%FLA
262190Andrew Hurst10854000.0%COL
262190Mohan Krishnamoorthy10854000.0%COL
135197Brian Dumble1076341930.2%TOR
108197Kevin Douglas1076532335.4%TOR
192197Wayne Kubis1075911118.6%FLA
119200Silvio Memme1066432234.4%TBL
167200Katarina Ornstein1066131626.2%CGY
221200Ryan Helland1065831017.2%MIN
273200Gary Brewster10653000.0%FLA
108204Caesar Wener1056532538.5%TOR
152204Jeff West1056231930.6%CGY
24206Duncan Campbell1047153853.5%TOR
119206Toni Laronga1046432437.5%COL
181206Hanna-Marea Kennedy1046031626.7%NYR
279206Danny Glassford10452000.0%CGY
279206Paula Santin10452000.0%CGY
279206Owen Thompson10452000.0%TBL
279206Christopher Mossey10452000.0%STL
135213Aaron Beder1036332336.5%COL
135213Daryl McGee1036332336.5%TBL
192213Wesley Frew1035921525.4%CGY
192213George Roman1035921525.4%CGY
240213Rebecca Gaudreau103561916.1%CGY
108218Peter Tanner1026542843.1%CGY
135218Sean Smith1026332438.1%COL
152218Jean-François Tibo1026232235.5%COL
221218Tom Baker1025831424.1%FLA
287218Lanny Cardow10251000.0%FLA
287218Tim Day10251000.0%TBL
287218Laura Speciale10251000.0%COL
287218David Gibbons10251000.0%COL
287218Shailyn Griffin10251000.0%FLA
287218Paul Morrison10251000.0%COL
287218S Ripsman10251000.0%CAR
181229Chris Bulpit1016031931.7%COL
192229Alex Kurgatnikov1015931728.8%COL
221229Dave Keystone1015831525.9%TBL
221229Brock Whalley1015821525.9%FLA
135233Sean Sargent1006332641.3%COL
152233Mary Beth Parent1006232438.7%FLA
262233Stephanie Paquette100541814.8%COL
297233Stephen Craig10050000.0%FLA
152237Tony Bruno996232540.3%TOR
167237Dennis Clayton996132337.7%CGY
240237Mitch Wexler995621323.2%TBL
258237Jim Mehan995511120.0%FLA
262237Phil Crawford99541916.7%COL
273237Amina Champsi99531713.2%COL
44243Adam Bloedow986954058.0%BOS
167243Rachelle Gaudet986132439.3%TOR
167243Matt Steeves986132439.3%FLA
297243Angela Gibbons9850124.0%CGY
301243Harper Christie-Allard9849000.0%COL
301243Desmond Desrosier9849000.0%CAR
301243Ron Wener9849000.0%CGY
301243Ryan Thompson9849000.0%FLA
167251Dustin Hall976132541.0%TOR
273251Sloane Smith97531917.0%FLA
192253Kevin Pinto965932237.3%TBL
306253Jay Dart9648000.0%FLA
306253Todd Beaman9648000.0%COL
35256Karen Savoie957064564.3%TOR
135256Vincent Laronga956353149.2%PIT
181256Mark Lenarcic956032541.7%TOR
192256Mike Siegler955932339.0%TOR
192256Steven Hawley955932339.0%COL
240256Mark Matheson955621730.4%COL
258256Jean Glassford955521527.3%FLA
119263Fraser Gallop946453453.1%EDM
221263Carl Pledger945832237.9%FLA
297263Lori Garrah94501612.0%COL
192266Les Endes935942542.4%TOR
192266Chris Smith935932542.4%TOR
240266David Lester935631933.9%FLA
258266Judah Gould935521730.9%COL
135270Andrea De Petrillo926353454.0%TOR
135270Dan McGee926353454.0%MIN
231270Dave Poitras925732238.6%COL
231270Anna Kwan925732238.6%FLA
312270Tim Logue9246000.0%CGY
72275Stephanie Robichaud916764364.2%TOR
240275James Burnand915632137.5%TOR
273275Arely Marquez915331528.3%FLA
231278Cyril Beaman905732442.1%FLA
231278Ryan McLennan905732442.1%BOS
279278Diego DeMarco905231426.9%CGY
312278Kyle Moore9046124.3%COL
316278Joy Smith9045000.0%COL
316278Martin Lefebvre9045000.0%FLA
108284Barbara Kennedy896564163.1%CGY
231284Andrew Mckenzie895732543.9%COL
287284Glenn Zyzanski895131325.5%MIN
240287Hugh Freedman885632442.9%TOR
240287Chiara DeMarco885632442.9%CGY
279287Jeff Jacobs885231630.8%WSH
279287Brandon Kubis885221630.8%COL
181291Vincent Galante876053355.0%TOR
181291Francesco Varriano876043355.0%COL
54293Dan Cleveland866865073.5%COL
262293Siyeon Lee865432240.7%FLA
262293Della Santin865432240.7%BOS
309293Milton Howe86471817.0%CGY
321293Donna Thompson8643000.0%TBL
167298David Schamma856163760.7%CGY
221298Lori Winkler855863153.4%WSH
167300Darcy Keene846163862.3%TOR
262300Gareth Neilson845432444.4%COL
240302Scott Sellers835642951.8%TBL
273302Frank Iusi835332343.4%COL
323304Eli Hammerman8241000.0%COL
279305Danny Thompson815232344.2%FLA
262306Mike Griffin805442851.9%COL
273306Noah Bloedow805342649.1%FLA
287306Dryden Craig805132243.1%FLA
309306Fred Slade804731429.8%MIN
325306Amelia Thompson8040000.0%FLA
309311Erica Jeffery794721531.9%COL
319311Chad Evans79441920.5%FLA
297313Duncan MacDonald785042244.0%FLA
287313David Hart785132447.1%FLA
312315Mark MacDonald774641532.6%FLA
312316Elaine Weidner764631634.8%TBL
221317Shannon Lindensmith755864170.7%COL
167318Brenden Kennedy746164878.7%STL
306318Shane Davey744832245.8%COL
316320Will McGee734531737.8%FLA
262321Corey Messer725463666.7%COL
301322Claudine Lukawesky714952755.1%TOR
319323Jesse Pharand704451840.9%FLA
323324Howie Kamen644141843.9%MIN
328324Mike van Steendelaar64351617.1%TBL
329326Keith Weidner6031126.5%FLA
327327Paula Kozlowich573851950.0%WSH
330328Laurena Clark53304723.3%CAR
322329Jacqui Snow504273481.0%TOR
326330Donald Glassford453953384.6%TOR
331331Tracy Smith402641246.2%DAL
332332Jeff Bangs33183316.7%NSH







Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.