
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Mike Smith had two shutouts in the series win to match Connor McDavid with a pool-leading 14 points. |
The Champa Bay Lightning are back. Their game seven triumph reminds us that the road to the Cup goes through the two-time champs. For the Leafs, it was an unfortunate draw after a good season and a strong round one performance. No need to blow up the team, but improvements are still needed.
The Leafs' defeat was the only significant one, with 308 picks eliminated affecting 129 entries, while the other seven losing teams combine for 284 picks. With all but one remaining teams over 100 picks (except St. Louis' 47), there is a strong field of entries with high scoring players for round two.
Overall, just 19.8% of all picks were eliminated, the fourth-lowest in the pool's 24 seasons.
Round 2 has two provincial tilts with big consequences: the Battle of Alberta has 700 picks in play (Calgary, 469 vs Edmonton, 231) while the Sunshine Series has 662 (Florida, 389 vs Tampa Bay, 273). These two series will likely be the most pivotal in this year's pool.
Stacey Hartley picked the top players still in the pool (Edmonton, Colorado) and the top players eliminated (Brad Marchand, Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews), earning her a record score that might stay in the books for years to come. It is also likely to earn Stacey a tumble in the round 2 standings (projected 11th).
Rishi Mistri is projected to rise from 9th into the top spot with 150 points, based on the projected standings below. See whether you are expected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same, below.
Only twice before this year had an entry collected 20 points in one night - in 2016, when Connor Brewster set a record with 21, and in 2018. May 3 was a high-scoring night for the ages as Andrew Wood set a new high of 22 while two others had 20 and one had 19. Four of the six highest point-getting nights in 24 years were on the same night.
For the second straight year, the pool collective has achieved the feat of having no one lose all nine players after Round 1. Last year was the first time since 2011 and this year marks a best-ever 332 entries without any wipeouts. Well done everyone! See the interesting chart below and feel a job well done.
| 1998 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 1999 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | 33 | 3 | 9.1 |
| 2001 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 39 | 1 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | 67 | 3 | 4.5 |
| 2004 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 104 | 2 | 1.9 |
| 2007 | 132 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 189 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 197 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 233 | 26 | 11.2 |
| 2013 | 247 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2014 | 214 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2015 | 273 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 261 | 5 | 1.9 |
| 2017 | 273 | 5 | 1.8 |
| 2018 | 350 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 349 | 139 | 39.8 |
| 2020 | 199 | 6 | 3 |
| 2021 | 287 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | 332 | 0 | 0 |
For the third time ever, over 100 entries were unscathed, losing no players. 128 unscathed entries is 39% of the pool, behind the 150 of 350 (43%) in the largest pool in 2018, and 108 of 205 (53%) in 2011.
How do you pick a bust when there is none? Toronto had the only eliminated players picked enough to be a bust, and they all performed admirably. We will see after round two.
(ed.: 2022 winner added after R2)
Biggest busts over the years: 2022 - Huberdeau; 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 117 picks; Marner, Tor, 84; Reilly, Tor, 58; Kaprizov, Min, 41; Marchand, Bos, 36, Crosby, Pit, 23; Pastrnak, Bos, 23; Campbell, Tor, 21.
You get a game Seven, You get a game Seven, You get a game Seven. That was the story of the first round as 5 of 8 series went the distance and two of the other three went six.
Colorado looked dominant sweeping the Nashville Predators and scored more than 5 goals in 3 of 4 games including scoring 7 twice.
I also have to address the elephant in the room: the Leafs losing again in 7 games a 2-1 Nick Paul masterclass loss was the decider.
Though not favourable for the Leafs, the second round matchups bring some pretty good matchups: a playoff Battle of Alberta and a Sunshine State Rivalry.
If I were to place a bet I would say Calgary, Tampa Bay, New York and Colorado will win. We'll see what actually happens though!
After going 6-for-8 in round one picks, missing only the Rangers and Blues, I'll take Tampa Bay, Carolina, Colorado and Calgary.
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Connor McDavid |
EDM |
14 |
114 |
| Carter Verhaege |
FLA |
12 |
0 |
| Mika Zibanejad |
NYR |
11 |
20 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
11 |
36 |
| Jake Guentzel |
PIT |
10 |
7 |
| Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
10 |
23 |
| David Perron |
STL |
9 |
3 |
| Evander Kane |
EDM |
9 |
7 |
| Leon Draisaitl |
EDM |
9 |
78 |
| Auston Matthews |
TOR |
9 |
117 |
| Sebastian Aho |
CAR |
7 |
90 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
7 |
109 |
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| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Adam Fox |
NYR |
10 |
53 |
| Cale Makar |
COL |
10 |
236 |
| Jaccob Slavin |
CAR |
8 |
4 |
| Anthony DeAngelo |
CAR |
8 |
22 |
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| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Mike Smith |
EDM |
14 |
7 |
| Jacob Markstrom |
CGY |
10 |
93 |
| Jake Oettinger |
DAL |
8 |
0 |
| Jonathan Quick |
LOS |
8 |
0 |
| Jack Campbell |
TOR |
8 |
21 |
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| Teams |
| Colorado | 695 | 103 |
| Calgary | 469 | 49 |
| Florida | 389 | 53 |
| Tampa Bay | 273 | 31 |
| Edmonton | 231 | 8 |
| NY Rangers | 173 | 12 |
| Carolina | 119 | 6 |
| St. Louis | 47 | 4 |
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| Toronto | 308 | 50 |
| Boston | 88 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 79 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | 54 | 1 |
| Washington | 26 | 3 |
| Nashville | 25 | 1 |
| Dallas | 9 | 1 |
| Los Angeles | 3 | 0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Nathan MacKinnon would get another 10 points, while Marc-Andre Fleury would again get four wins, a shutout, and an assist.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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