Round 3 Analysis

WHO'S HOT, WHO'S NOT

Hot Vince Brescia Ron Wener Sam Fielding Wally Mikulski Crawford Dedman Russell Reed Not David Reilly Tim Crockford Steve Tivey Peter Sadlier-Brown Ian Winsor Barb Ferrier

Pos. Gain (R2,R3) +8 (18,10) +7 (13,6) +6 (18,12) +4 (8,4) +4 (15,11) +4 (22,18) Pos. Loss (R2,R3) -12 (13,25) -8 (1,9) -6 (7,13) -5 (9,14) -5 (11,16) -5 (15,20)

Hot B.L.T. Vince Galante Ron Wener Vince Brescia Wally Mikulski Not Aron Slipacoff Julian Vardy Kevin Floether Tim Smith Mouli Ramani

R3 Pts 46 44 42 40 40 R3 Pts 0 12 13 14 15

Dominik Hasek's two shutouts at the end of Round 3 was likely the "TSN Turning Point" of this year's pool. The extra twelve points separated the final round contenders -- Vince Galante and B.L.T. -- from the also-rans and knocked Colorado's 78 picks from the pool to boot. Most poolies will find there is little, if any, leverage between them and their rivals at this point in the game.

Deadly duo
Not surprisingly, two of the three entries with both Hasek and Peter Forsberg sit at the top of the pool. Hasek's 38 points after two rounds are already a pool record for goalies, as is Forsberg's 27 for forwards. Forsberg could very well win the playoff scoring race without even playing in the final.

Hopes crushed
With Colorado's loss, the hopes for Tim Crockford and George Smith have been crushed. Crockford led the pool after both of the first two rounds and would have been a shoo-in had the Avalanche won the Cup. Smith, who won the Shoot for Gold olympic hockey pool, hadn't lost a player until Toronto was eliminated, and now has lost 6.

THE CONTENDERS
Here's a look at the factors that will decide the pool:
1st Place/2nd Place
Vince Galante and B.L.T. both have Lidstrom and Hasek, so they are non-factors. The only factor will be Brendan Shanahan vs. Sergei Fedorov. Vince has Shanahan, and a one-point lead on B.L.T. and Fedorov.

3rd Place
Tony Ruffolo (132), George Smith (131) and Wally Mikulski (131) will battle it out for third. All have Shanahan, so he's a non-factor. It will come down to offence vs. defense... if Hasek gets a shutout, George is out of the running and it's between Tony's Fedorov and Wally's Yzerman. But if offence prevails, George has both Fedorov and Hull.

Longshot chances
Three poolies (Richard Gretzinger, Mohan Krisnamoorthy and Ron Wener) have longshot chances, starting three points behind. But they need Lidstrom to pour in more points than other forwards, making this a very slim possibility.

Projected Round 4 Standings (not that this matters much now...):

Name: Vince Galante B.L.T. Wally Mikulski Tony Ruffolo Ron Wener Richard Gretzinger Mohan Krishnamoorthy George Smith Vince Brescia Crawford Dedman Tim Crockford Sam Fielding Christian Pitcher Russell Reed Andrew Ryan Peter Sadlier-Brown Steve Tivey Danthrax Mitch Wexler Ian Winsor Brendan Browne Barb Ferrier Karen Patterson Mike Howard Keith Riddell Dane Clatney Altaf Champsi John Menary David Reilly Paul Hanna Max Slipacoff Joel Cornberg Rohit Chandra Snow Princess Mouli Ramani Kevin Floether Tim Smith Julian Vardy Aron Slipacoff

R4 Projection: 164 163 155 155 151 150 150 146 144 143 141 140 134 133 131 128 126 125 123 122 122 119 119 118 116 116 115 109 106 103 100 96 93 92 88 83 77 66 40

Pts. after R3: 142 141 131 132 128 128 128 131 122 121 126 118 112 111 108 114 116 103 111 112 112 109 109 104 106 106 99 95 106 89 86 81 88 92 79 83 77 62 40

Rank: 1 2 4 3 6 6 6 4 10 11 9 12 15 18 22 14 13 27 18 16 16 20 20 26 23 23 28 29 25 31 33 35 32 30 36 34 37 38 39