
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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Petr Mrazek's two shutouts made him the top player in round 1 - too bad he lost the series. |
For the second year in a row we have had a relatively low impact on the pool after round one eliminations. 638 picks were eliminated, or 26% of the pool, up from 20% last year due to the parity in the picks this year. 54 Cup picks, 19%, were knocked out.
St. Louis was the only team in the top five, and the only favourite, to go down - 302 picks and 30 Cup selections. The Blues comprised half of the picks and Cups knocked out in round one. Ottawa's 90 was the next biggest team but they were up against a Habs team with more than double the picks.
Congratulations to Sarah Wardell on her first round lead with 55 points, rising to claim the honour at the last moment of the last game. Michael Sinclair and Glenn Zyzanski are in second place, one point back while Harper Christie-Allard and Paula Brinston, with 53 points, round out the top five in a tight race. However, Glenn has lost three players while Michael and Paul have lost two each, suggesting a retreat for these poolies in the second round.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
The first round leader has only 55 points, the lowest since 2012 and third-lowest ever. The record-low 53 was set in 2007. Despite low scoring overall in the first round and in particular by the top players, there were also few shutouts to pad poolies' performance.
There were 71 unscathed entries this year (26% of the total entries), not quite as high as last year's 37%, but still in the normal range. Two entries were completely wiped out in round 1 this year, also in the normal range.
Every year we pick the biggest bust, the player heavily bet on who delivered the least. There have been some pretty huge busts in years past. This year all the favourites performed adequately, if not stellarly, making it very difficult to pick a bust. Top picks Rick Nash and Steven Stamkos didn't light it up, with 4 and 3 points respectively, but they have advanced to the next round - if they get shut out (and eliminated) we may revisit this.
So the award goes to Alex Pietrangelo of the St. Louis Blues, with 2 points for 39 picks. Not the worst performance ever, just the worst for this year.
Biggest busts over the years: 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out.
In the "Good While It Lasted" category, Petr Mrazek was the top player in round 1, collecting two shutouts against Tampa Bay but ultimately losing the series. His 13 points led all players by far - and only Hanna-Marea Kennedy picked him.
I know not to bet on Washington or San Jose - ever - so their win was the only blemish on my round 1 picks. I'll take my 7-1 record into round 2 with these picks: Montreal, Rangers, Chicago, Anaheim.
Major players on their way out: Tarasenko, StL, 116 picks; Steen, StL, 45; Karlsson, Ott, 41; Pietrangelo, StL, 39; Tavares, NYI, 37; Shattenkirk, StL, 32; Schwartz, StL, 26; Stone, Ott, 22; Byfuglien, Wpg, 19; Backes, StL, 18; D.Sedin, Van, 17; H.Sedin, Van, 16; Crosby, Pit, 15; Weber, Nas, 15; Hammond, Ott, 13.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Jonathan Toews |
CHI |
8 |
116 |
Zach Parise |
MIN |
7 |
12 |
Tyler Johnson |
TAM |
7 |
60 |
Corey Perry |
ANA |
7 |
84 |
Patrick Kane |
CHI |
7 |
87 |
Vladimir Tarasenko |
STL |
7 |
116 |
Johnny Goudreau |
CGY |
6 |
9 |
Filip Forsberg |
NAS |
6 |
10 |
Jiri Hudler |
CGY |
6 |
13 |
John Tavares |
NYI |
6 |
37 |
Nicklas Backstrom |
WAS |
6 |
47 |
|
Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Kevin Shattenkirk |
STL |
8 |
32 |
Duncan Keith |
CHI |
7 |
76 |
Nick Leddy |
NYI |
5 |
3 |
Sami Vatanen |
ANA |
5 |
14 |
11 players |
|
4 |
|
Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Petr Mrazek |
DET |
13 |
1 |
Ben Bishop |
TAM |
10 |
27 |
Devan Dubnyk |
MIN |
9 |
3 |
Carey Price |
MON |
9 |
60 |
|
Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
NY Rangers |
447 |
79 |
Chicago |
340 |
41 |
Tampa Bay |
296 |
25 |
Anaheim |
251 |
18 |
Montreal |
228 |
36 |
Washington |
187 |
15 |
Calgary |
41 |
3 |
Minnesota |
29 |
2 |
|
OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
St. Louis |
302 |
30 |
Ottawa |
90 |
12 |
NY Islanders |
56 |
1 |
Winnipeg |
51 |
3 |
Nashville |
47 |
4 |
Vancouver |
38 |
3 |
Detroit |
27 |
1 |
Pittsburgh |
27 |
0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Ben Bishop would get another 10 points while Stamkos would only get 3.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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