Lord Stanley's Pool 2015 - Round 2 Analysis

The undramatic outcomes continued into round 2, with all the pool favourites winning their series. The Rangers' comeback from Washington's 3-1 series lead, and their victory in game 7 overtime, were dramatic to watch, if not surprising in the end.

So after two rounds we still had only St. Louis eliminated from the top teams and we will have classic matchups in the Conference Finals with four of the top five teams in the pool.

While some poolies are sadly out of the running, and the pool leaders have some breathing room, anything can happen both in this round and ultimately after two of these four top teams go down.

Good picking
Twenty-four entries remain unscathed after round 2, with all nine of their players going into round 3. At 8.8% of the pool, that is a new record high, beating the 7.5% in 2001 when everyone picked Colorado and New Jersey and watched Ray Bourque lift the Cup.

Leader strengthens hold
Sarah Wardell - who took the lead on the final night of round 1 - has slowly padded her lead and now has a somewhat comfortable five-point margin, with 103 points. Harper Christie-Allard is in second with 98 while Donna Thompson climbed from 43rd to tie Michael Sinclair for third.

Eight poolies in the top 20 have a full roster of nine players, and will all have a shot to challenge for pool victory, but all of them will lose at least three players at the conclusion of the round. Challengers include Sherri Rowe, Evie Christie, Dave Spedding, Pierre Maxime Gravelle (who climbed from 169th into 13th), and Maria De Marco.

Habs loss hurt on defense, goaltending
Montreal wasn't in the top five teams picks-wise, though they were for Cup picks, and a couple of their players were prominent. P.K. Subban was the top pick on defense (88 entries) while Corey Price was the #2 goalie (60 picks). Washington's Braden Holtby, with 19 picks was also in the top five for goaltending.

Both of those categories still have round 1 stars featuring prominently despite their elimination. Petr Mrazek with 13 points, is second on the goaltending rankings only a point behind Ben Bishop while Kevin Shattenkirk's 8 points is tied with Subban and only two behind leader Duncan Keith.

Biggest Bust
As noted in the round 1 analysis, I would have loved to give either Rick Nash (148 picks) or Steven Stamkos (138) the biggest bust award after round 1, when they had only 4 and 3 points respectively, but they didn't bust in round 2. So the award remains Alex Pietrangelo's, who had only 2 points for 39 poolies. See the Round 1 Analysis for more on this and the list of biggest busts over the years.

Mitch's predictions
I was right about the Capitals this time, but too bad about the Habs. 3/4 in round 2 puts me at 10-2 with some hard choices to make for round 3. I'm concerned about both Tampa Bay and Anaheim - both look stronger than anticipated. But I can't stand to watch cities with those names win the Cup (along with Carolina and Dallas), so even though I never like the Rangers I will stick with Chicago and New York in the final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Pierre Maxime Gravelle was the hottest poolie in round two, jumping from 169th to 13th and topping the list with 50 points. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Andrew Rudy	175 (202,27)	Pierre Maxime Gravelle	50
Janine Pileggi	175 (218,43)	Donna Thompson	49
Owen Thompson	167 (218,51)	Andrew Rudy	49
Pierre Maxime Gravelle	156 (169,13)	Janine Pileggi	48
Jessica Thompson	142 (169,27)	Sarah Wardell	48
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Nancy Hotson	191 (37,228)	Ron Ego	0
Mark Norman	158 (43,201)	Daryl James	0
Vincent Galante	137 (43,180)	Hanna-Marea Kenedy	5
Angela Yanyk, Rob Schonberger	135 (98,233)	Three poolies	8

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Corey Perry ANA 15 84

Patrick Kane CHI 13 87

Tyler Johnson TAM 12 60

Ryan Getzlaf ANA 12 117

Jakob Silfverberg ANA 11 2

Nikita Kucherov TAM 11 13

Jonathan Toews CHI 11 116

Zach Parise MIN 7 12

Steven Stamkos TAM 10 138

6 players with 9

Defense Team Pts Picks

Duncan Keith CHI 10 76

Kevin Shattenkirk STL 8 32

PK Subban MON 7 88

Kris Russell CGY 7 0

Dennis Wideman CGY 7 10

Sami Vatanen ANA 7 14

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Ben Bishop TAM 14 27

Petr Mrazek DET 13 1

Frederik Andersen ANA 12 9

Braden Holtby WAS 12 19

Teams

IN Picks Cups

NY Rangers 447 79

Chicago 340 41

Tampa Bay 296 25

Anaheim 251 18

OUT Picks Cups

Montreal 228 36

Washington 187 15

Calgary 41 3

Minnesota 29 2

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2. So all four goalies should four wins, right?

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

1 1 1 Sarah Wardell 103 9 ANA 154
4 2 2 Harper Christie-Allard 98 9 TBL 147
43 3 3 Donna Thompson 95 9 ANA 142
16 5 4 Sherri Rowe 92 9 CHI 138
43 9 5 Erin Jones 90 9 NYR 135
2 3 6 Michael Sinclair 95 7 CHI 133
169 13 6 Pierre Maxime Gravelle 89 9 CHI 133
43 13 6 Maria De Marco 89 9 ANA 133
10 13 6 Dave Spedding 89 9 TBL 133
43 24 10 Ken Wilcox 86 9 NYR 129
6 5 11 Aron Slipacoff 92 6 TBL 127
169 27 11 Jessica Thompson 85 9 CHI 127
202 27 11 Andrew Rudy 85 9 NYR 127
37 27 11 Norrin Ripsman 85 9 TBL 127
98 27 11 Blair Miller 85 9 NYR 127
16 5 16 Blair Phillips 92 6 ANA 126
6 13 16 Aaron Allard 89 7 TBL 126
79 21 16 Eric Flint 87 8 CHI 126
79 35 16 David Loop 84 9 NYR 126
6 9 20 Pasqi Porco 90 7 NYR 125
62 27 20 David Stemmler 85 8 NYR 125
43 18 22 John Thompson 88 7 ANA 124
140 18 22 David Hart 88 7 CHI 124
98 18 22 Kevin Boomer 88 7 NYR 124
37 35 22 Dave Crowley 84 8 NYR 124
218 43 22 Janine Pileggi 83 9 CHI 124
140 43 22 Patrick Mitchell 83 9 NYR 124
43 9 28 Ryan Slack 90 6 ANA 123
22 8 29 Tim Smith 91 6 WSH 122
37 35 30 Al Champsi 84 8 NYR 121
79 35 30 Edward Levens 84 8 NYR 121
29 47 30 Kento Onishi 82 8 TBL 121
218 51 30 Owen Thompson 81 9 CHI 121
62 24 34 Jim Doucette 86 7 NYR 120
79 43 34 Michael Sheahan 83 8 ANA 120
123 43 34 Moishe Wallach 83 8 MTL 120
98 62 34 Ron Wener 80 9 NYR 120
98 62 34 Ethan Craig 80 9 NYR 120
182 62 34 Kevin Hoey 80 9 NYR 120
43 47 40 Bill Garrity 82 8 CHI 119
37 9 41 Dave Michael 90 5 MTL 117
29 21 41 Cooper Levens 87 6 CHI 117
123 77 41 Carl Pledger 78 9 CHI 117
79 27 44 Tim Sowden 85 6 CHI 116
169 35 45 Mike Melanson 84 6 TBL 115
62 51 45 Anthony Fernando 81 7 NYR 115
169 51 45 Avery Spedding 81 7 NYR 115
98 62 45 Joy Smith 80 7 NYR 115
182 82 45 David Van Kula 77 9 NYR 115
16 24 50 Matthew Warner 86 5 NYR 114
37 47 50 Todd Nemisz 82 7 NYR 114
98 51 50 Peta Allard 81 7 NYR 114
140 62 50 Rachelle Gaudet 80 7 NYR 114
202 87 50 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 76 9 NYR 114
16 51 55 Colin Kennedy 81 5 TBL 112
98 62 55 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 80 7 NYR 112
43 62 55 Doug Crockett 80 7 NYR 112
10 27 58 Brendan Browne 85 5 MTL 111
62 35 58 Elizabeth Klein 84 6 WSH 111
43 47 58 Scott Anson 82 6 NYR 111
6 21 61 Don Fudge 87 4 MTL 110
43 62 61 Brock Vandrick 80 6 STL 110
79 74 61 Sean McCormick 79 7 NYR 110
123 102 61 David Lester 74 8 CHI 110
29 13 65 Alexander Bondarenko 89 3 MTL 109
169 62 65 Gareth Neilson 80 6 MTL 109
140 62 65 Scott Poitras 80 6 ANA 109
98 82 65 Brandon Kubis 77 7 ANA 109
218 94 65 Jason Elfaks 75 8 NYR 109
62 35 70 Marko Groesch 84 4 MTL 108
2 51 70 Glenn Zyzanski 81 5 TBL 108
22 62 70 Shane Davey 80 6 NYR 108
154 82 70 Azra Champsi 77 7 CHI 108
154 117 70 Frank Pileggi 72 9 CHI 108
43 35 75 Ross Brennan 84 5 NYR 107
182 51 75 Laura Speciale 81 6 WSH 107
79 51 75 Mel McNulty 81 6 WSH 107
98 94 75 Stefano Pileggi 75 6 ANA 107
10 27 79 Todd Foster 85 4 NYR 106
43 74 79 Ava McAdam-Beder 79 6 CHI 106
10 51 81 Nolan Sarner 81 4 STL 105
62 51 81 David Valenti 81 5 NYR 105
79 109 81 Andrea Phillips 73 6 OTT 105
43 74 84 Stefano Picone 79 5 MTL 104
43 77 84 Dustin Hall 78 6 CHI 104
123 87 84 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 76 6 WSH 104
98 87 84 Daniel Steinberg 76 6 CHI 104
140 102 84 Lee Beech 74 6 CHI 104
79 51 89 Austin Neilson 81 4 MTL 103
98 117 89 Scott Lee 72 7 NYR 103
154 87 91 Molly McNulty 76 6 NYR 102
98 102 91 Jaime Caeiro 74 6 NYR 102
218 109 91 Terry Hoey 73 6 NYR 102
182 145 91 Ryan Dempsey 69 6 TBL 102
140 125 91 Allan Curtis 71 7 NYR 102
79 125 91 Brenden Kennedy 71 7 NYR 102
169 62 97 Dave Poitras 80 4 WSH 101
79 94 97 Vince DiNucci 75 5 CHI 101
98 102 97 Brandon Poitras 74 6 TBL 101
199 125 97 Ruth Haaima 71 6 ANA 101
98 125 97 Patrick Gill 71 6 OTT 101
231 145 102 Brendan Hoey 69 7 NYR 100
29 94 103 Don Colangelo 75 5 CHI 99
169 117 103 Samuel Wexler 72 6 CHI 99
123 87 105 Duncan Campbell 76 4 CHI 98
123 102 105 Joel Greenstein 74 6 TBL 98
140 136 105 Rob Phillips 70 6 STL 98
169 136 108 Mark Brewster 70 5 TBL 97
123 125 108 Sam Fielding 71 6 NYR 97
202 158 108 Randy Murray 67 7 NYR 97
10 77 111 Shannon Brewster 78 3 MTL 96
62 77 111 Jonathan Carter 78 3 MTL 96
43 94 111 Judah Gould 75 4 ANA 96
98 109 111 Zack O'Gorman 73 4 NSH 96
154 87 111 Mike Coates 76 5 MTL 96
62 117 111 Silvio Memme 72 6 MTL 96
182 125 111 Andy Hotson 71 6 NYR 96
22 136 111 James Yanyk 70 6 NYR 96
218 136 111 Ian Winsor 70 6 ANA 96
140 136 111 Sean Smith 70 6 NYR 96
123 149 111 Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff 68 6 VAN 96
169 125 122 Kyle Hogg 71 6 CHI 95
22 125 122 Jessica Pigeon 71 6 NYR 95
231 136 122 Daryl McGee 70 6 CHI 95
256 158 122 Laura Tackaberry 67 7 ANA 95
16 77 126 Andrea Ford 78 3 MTL 94
98 94 126 Paul Martin 75 4 MTL 94
62 117 126 Amy van Steendelaar 72 4 ANA 94
262 149 126 Chris Crawford 68 5 CHI 94
29 82 130 Ryan Chirnomas 77 3 MTL 93
22 145 130 Jim Lindsay 69 5 TBL 93
154 158 130 Krista Bensette 67 6 STL 93
202 170 130 Sal Scarfone 66 6 NYR 93
182 94 134 Stacy Martin 75 3 CHI 92
4 94 134 Paula Brinston 75 3 CHI 92
256 136 134 Noah Bloedow 70 4 CHI 92
202 170 134 Mark Coatsworth 66 6 TBL 92
154 180 134 Colin McSweeney 64 6 NYR 92
244 170 134 Larry Coole 66 7 NYR 92
10 102 140 Matt MacDougall 74 3 CHI 91
182 109 140 David Schamma 73 3 WSH 91
22 102 140 Andrew Mckenzie 74 4 NYR 91
22 109 140 Alexandre Lavoie 73 4 STL 91
29 117 140 Mouli Ramani 72 4 MTL 91
140 158 140 Andrew Ryan 67 6 STL 91
79 158 140 Allan Boynton 67 6 NYR 91
140 180 140 Douglas Wilkinson 64 6 NYR 91
231 190 140 Nolan Coole 63 6 NYR 91
182 190 140 Mike van Steendelaar 63 7 CHI 91
202 82 150 Fred Slade 77 2 MTL 90
98 87 150 Brad Moulton 76 3 STL 90
43 109 150 Joan Coveny 73 3 STL 90
98 109 150 Campbell Clark-Smith 73 3 MTL 90
29 117 150 Fraser Macdonald 72 3 TBL 90
79 136 150 Matt Hartley 70 4 MTL 90
202 178 150 Natalie MacDonell 65 4 OTT 90
182 180 150 Cooper Levens 64 6 CHI 90
140 158 158 Elena Noble 67 5 NYR 89
79 149 158 Brad Hotson 68 6 MIN 89
182 180 158 Tyler Robinson 64 6 TBL 89
202 180 158 Pierre Allard 64 6 STL 89
140 180 158 Corby Fine 64 6 NYR 89
98 125 163 Jeff Brinston 71 3 WSH 88
140 136 163 Lindsey Baldwin 70 4 CHI 88
154 158 163 Andrew MacIntyre 67 4 CHI 88
244 198 163 Craig Endicott 62 6 NYR 88
169 149 167 Randy Stewart 68 4 NYR 87
123 158 167 Samara McAdam 67 5 NYR 87
218 198 167 Russell Reed 62 6 NYR 87
256 201 167 Jacqui Snow 61 6 NYR 87
154 201 167 Mitch Wexler 61 6 OTT 87
62 149 172 Martin Lefebvre 68 3 NYI 86
244 180 172 Marie Loop 64 6 CHI 86
154 190 172 Diego DeMarco 63 6 NYR 86
244 201 172 Patrizia Locondro 61 6 NYR 86
262 212 172 Matthew Pledger 60 6 NYR 86
62 158 177 Brett Kirkpatrick 67 3 TBL 85
29 158 177 Steve Sealy 67 3 TBL 85
244 201 177 George Crothers 61 6 NYR 85
43 109 180 Jordan Ungerman 73 2 WSH 84
123 117 180 Graham Haines 72 3 WSH 84
123 149 180 Mike Newbauer 68 3 STL 84
123 149 180 George Smith 68 3 MTL 84
79 170 180 Desmond Desrosier 66 3 TBL 84
182 170 180 Lanny Cardow 66 4 NYR 84
199 180 180 Scott Munnoch 64 4 NSH 84
154 201 180 Christopher Mossey 61 5 TBL 84
231 212 180 Stephen Craig 60 6 NYR 84
182 218 180 Becke Gainforth 59 6 OTT 84
98 158 190 Gabe Pretto 67 3 STL 83
62 178 190 Jeff Snow 65 3 TBL 83
182 190 190 Della Santin 63 3 ANA 83
62 149 190 Nigel Fowler 68 4 MIN 83
43 180 190 Vincent Galante 64 4 STL 83
202 212 190 Chris Thombs 60 6 NYR 83
256 212 190 Ryan Thompson 60 6 STL 83
62 125 197 Dave Quist 71 3 MTL 82
16 145 197 Stuart Klein 69 3 TBL 82
123 170 197 Kevin Pinto 66 3 CHI 82
262 222 197 Shane Kozlowich 58 5 WPG 82
218 222 197 Mike De Petrillo 58 6 STL 82
62 180 202 Kenneth Glonek 64 3 MTL 79
140 198 203 Jamie Sarner 62 3 OTT 78
98 201 203 Kelby Miles 61 3 MTL 78
123 201 203 Adam Jamieson 61 4 ANA 78
154 222 203 Martha Gill 58 4 TBL 78
202 228 203 Jimmy Harpell 57 5 CHI 78
244 201 208 Gavin Bailey 61 4 NYR 77
79 125 209 Paula Santin 71 1 MTL 76
62 170 209 Connor Brewster 66 2 WSH 76
202 212 209 Ted Kennedy 60 3 OTT 76
98 233 212 Angela Yanyk 56 5 NYR 75
98 149 213 Chad Evans 68 1 MTL 74
154 190 213 Stacey Hartley 63 2 STL 74
202 222 213 Peter Hogg 58 4 NYR 74
154 228 213 Alvin Gainforth 57 5 NYR 74
182 190 217 Matthew Brenner 63 2 STL 73
262 222 217 Evan Hoey 58 4 NYR 73
256 218 219 Dan Andreae 59 3 WSH 72
202 222 220 Alex Cho-Kee 58 2 STL 71
169 218 220 Barrett Boitson 59 3 CGY 71
218 239 220 Todd Beaman 54 4 OTT 71
123 239 223 Rylee Hartley 54 3 CHI 70
123 218 224 Matt Seiler 59 2 STL 69
231 233 224 Richard Gretzinger 56 3 NSH 69
218 237 226 Dan Leggieri 55 2 STL 68
231 253 226 Mike Siegler 50 3 TBL 68
202 241 226 Liz Yorke 53 5 MTL 68
62 158 229 Keith Chappell 67 0 MTL 67
218 212 229 Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff 60 2 WSH 67
169 233 229 Cindy Chen 56 3 NYR 67
231 245 229 Sophie Wexler 52 3 CHI 67
231 247 229 Aaron Pretto 51 3 ANA 67
98 170 234 Dennis Clayton 66 0 STL 66
43 201 234 Mark Norman 61 1 VAN 66
98 233 236 Rob Schonberger 56 2 STL 65
266 257 236 Luke McEachnie 49 3 NSH 65
79 190 238 Jonas Struthers 63 0 MTL 63
79 190 238 Eli Hammerman 63 0 STL 63
218 201 238 Emma and Andrew Fielding 61 1 WSH 63
231 237 238 Denis Valente 55 2 MTL 63
231 241 238 Michael Lau 53 2 MTL 63
37 228 238 Nancy Hotson 57 3 NYR 63
244 258 238 Whitt Newbauer 48 3 CHI 63
268 264 238 Hugh Freedman 46 6 CHI 63
169 228 246 Stuart MacIntyre 57 1 STL 62
123 228 246 Shawn Glassford 57 1 STL 62
218 241 246 Dryden Craig 53 3 STL 62
79 201 249 Pat Entably 61 0 CGY 61
231 253 249 Aidan Hoey 50 3 NYR 61
266 247 251 Jay Dart 51 3 NYR 60
202 247 251 Ruth Beder 51 3 STL 60
244 253 251 Harris Beder 50 3 NYR 60
269 267 251 Kovi Smolack 43 4 WPG 60
182 247 255 Chris Smith 51 3 MTL 59
244 253 255 Siyeon Lee 50 3 STL 59
154 247 257 Adam Bloedow 51 1 OTT 57
202 260 257 Darlene Boitson 47 2 OTT 57
270 258 257 Barry Potter 48 3 MTL 57
244 260 260 Barbara Kennedy 47 3 NYR 56
182 241 261 Leif Malling 53 0 VAN 53
199 245 262 Chris Aubin 52 0 STL 52
154 247 263 Peter Tanner 51 0 MTL 51
231 268 264 Karen Savoie 42 1 OTT 48
256 260 265 Sean Sargent 47 0 WSH 47
244 260 265 S Ripsman 47 0 MTL 47
182 264 267 Sharon Boitson 46 0 CGY 46
231 266 267 Elliott Silverstein 44 1 MTL 46
271 270 269 Vince Pileggi 35 3 STL 45
218 269 270 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 40 0 DET 40
273 272 271 Paul Groba 28 3 OTT 36
244 271 272 Ron Ego 33 0 STL 33
272 273 273 Daryl McGee 25 0 WPG 25