Lord Stanley's Pool 2021 - Opening Analysis

Lots of questions about how people view this year's intriguing division matchups have been answered. Now only the performance on the ice will tell the tale. Colorado or Vegas in the West? The answer is resoundingly Colorado, with 519 player picks and 96 Cups making them the clear favourites in the pool this year. But Vegas still has its supporters, ranking them 3rd with 283 players and 52 Cup picks.

Toronto or Edmonton in the vaunted one-year-only North division? Or more specifically, Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid? The answer here is clearly Toronto, with 415 picks and 55 Cups putting them 2nd while Edmonton is fourth with 246 picks - but only 8 Cup picks for the Oilers suggests that people truly wanted McDavid for his points, without having faith in the team.

Meanwhile the Central and East may have fewer picks, but they look extremely competitive and unpredictable and could hold the balance of the pool in its outcome.

Nathan MacKinnon, of Trailer Park Boys fame, is the top pick again for 2021.

In a first for Lord Stanley's Pool, Colorado has swept the top picks for forwards, defence, and goalie. Despite the domination of certain top teams in the past - such as 2019's ill-fated Tampa Bay squad and the 2001 champion Avalanche - no team has managed to secure the most popular pick at all three positions until this year. So while Colorado is not the prohibitive favourite, it underlines the confidence people have in picking them this year.

For the second straight year, Nathan MacKinnon (169 picks, 59% of entries) is the top forward pick and top pick overall, while Cale Makar (132, 46%) is the top defenseman.

While MacKinnon was the top pick by a wide margin last year, it was a different story this year with Auston Matthews (165, 57%) just four picks off the pace. Matthews' Leafs teammate Mitchell Marner(137, 48%) is third while Connor McDavid (127, 44%), Mikko Rantanen (109, 38%), and Mark Stone (107, 37%) also received over 100 picks.

Makar leads Carolina's Dougie Hamilton (80, 28%) by a significant margin, with perennial favourites Victor Hedman (63, 22%) and Shea Theodore (63, 22%) also getting their share.

With more teams opting for tandems and with Colorado the favourite by participants this year, Philipp Grubauer (94, 33%) is the top picked goalie. If he stays healthy, Colorado could be in for a long run. If not... well we saw what happened last year.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (57, 20%), who tied for most-picked goalie in 2020, is there for the Lightning's Cup defense while Marc-Andre Fleury (50, 17%) is still trusted to make an impact. Even with Vegas potentially going tandem with Robin Lehner, poolies took Fleury 50 times to Lehner's 1. Then again, Fleury has twice disrupted the top of the pool standings after missing a full series or more, so watch out for this if Vegas can make it through.

Tampa Bay (242 picks) vs Florida (87) has the greatest minimum impact, while Boston (227) vs Washington (59) will also cause some hurt. But the matchups we are all waiting for are potentially there in round 2: Colorado (519) vs Vegas (283) and Toronto (415) vs Edmonton (246) will shake up the pool significantly if indeed they materialize.

Kronis' Corner - notes from the pool's stats co-pilot Joel Kronis
Picks are in and today starts the first day of the pool. Though this year's hockey season has been different (only playing 56 games, single divisions) it's playoff time. There should be a lot of very interesting series, including The Leafs vs The Canadiens. With the physical presence of the Canadiens and the leafs not passing the first round since 2002 as well as not being a very physical team, we could potentially see an upset. Still, with the playoff format guaranteeing a spot in the final four, could this be the year for a Canadian team to make it through?

Another series that should be a good one is Minnesota vs. Vegas. Though it doesn't look close on paper (you would see Vegas winning it easily) if you look at the season series Minnesota has gotten a point in all but one of their nine games against Vegas, led by Kril Kaprizov the young Wild forward who seems destined for the Calder Trophy. But Vegas' goaltending and team just feels too good to throw in this pressure situation.

There's one last series that should be a very good set of games. Boston vs. Washington and in fact that entire east mini tournament should be great. Whoever wins Boston-Washington feels like they're probably going to get into the reseeding to go to the Stanley cup finals. Though Pittsburgh has been hot and has been a dynasty over the last few years, I think Washington or Boston would both beat Pittsburgh. Overall This should be a very good playoffs and we could see many series go deep with good games.

Series predictions
Here are Mitch's usually-wrong series predictions. I'm picking Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Colorado, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Washington to win their first round series.

Common Player Card:
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.

F:
Nathan MacKinnon, Col (169 picks)
Auston Matthews, Tor (165)
Mitchell Marner, Tor (137)
Connor McDavid, Edm (127)
Mikko Rantanen, Col (109)
Mark Stone, VGK (107)
D:
Cale Makar, Col (132)
Dougie Hamilton, Car (80)
G:
Philipp Grubauer, Col (94)
Team to win:
Colorado (96)

Last year:
F:
Nathan MacKinnon, Col (133 picks)
Mark Stone, VGK (79)
David Pastrnak, Bos (77)
Mikko Rantanen, Col (69)
Nikita Kucherov, Tam (64)
Alex Ovechkin, Was / Brad Marchand, Bos (59)
D:
Cale Makar, Col (96)
Shea Theodore, VGK (50)
G:
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tam / Carter Hart, Phi (39)
Team to win:
Colorado (53)