Lord Stanley's Pool 2021 - Round 2 Analysis

After all the intrigue surrounding the division and playoff format this year, three of the four teams remaining have returned from last year's conference finals. We have a rematch of last year's conference finals in which Tampa Bay defeated the New York Islanders en route to their Cup victory, while Vegas will play Montreal instead of Dallas in hopes of making it through this time.

For the pool, with the Colorado collapse in round 2 following Toronto and Edmonton's first round knockouts, we also have a similar situation as last year with 75% of the picks eliminated after two rounds and a leader two will try to hold on for dear life.

Kevin Pinto leads the pool by 16 points - a margin greater than the pool's record margin of victory, 14, set way back in 2004. And had Boston and Colorado (or just one of them) won their series, that margin would have increased significantly and made Kevin's entry one for the record books.

Instead we will see if any challengers can overcome a gap that may still be insurmountable - or if they instead eke out the 2nd and 3rd spots on the podium.

The contenders
Here are the contenders:

Kevin Pinto - 126 pts - Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Stamkos, Tampa to win. Current leader by 16 pts.

Lucas Chua - 110 pts - Vasilevskiy, Point, Hedman, Tampa to win. Can he hold on to 2nd or 3rd?

Tyler Dominato - 100 pts - Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Hedman, Stone, Barzal, Tampa to win. Can two extra players give him enough to get to the podium?

Frank Pileggo - 98 pts - Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Stone, Pietrangelo, Theodore, Vegas to win. Last year's second-place finisher, with similar picks to last year, is a contender especially if Vegas makes it through.

Norrin Ripsman - 90 pts - With three each from Tampa, Vegas, and Islanders, Norrin has a full nine remaining, the only unscathed entry, while nobody else has more than 6 players.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: MacKinnon, Col, 169 picks; Makar, Col, 132; Rantanen, Col, 109; Grubauer, Col, 90; Marchand, Bos, 93; Aho, Car, 90; Hamilton, Car, 80; Pastrnak, Bos, 46.

Mitch's predictions
I'm 4-8 after two rounds, a very poor result even for me. Now I do think Tampa is going to win the Cup and it's also unwise to bet against Vegas. But because it would be so darn nice if it happened, I'm picking Montreal and the Islanders!

Kronis' Corner - notes from the pool's stats co-pilot Joel Kronis
The second round did not really go the way people expected, all four teams in the semifinals were underdogs in their series. The Islanders were the team no one expected to be here. They were in the toughest division with three legitimate Cup contenders and they kinda breezed through the Penguins and the Bruins without being in a win or go home situation. Speaking of that, neither did the Montreal Canadiens as they swept the injury-depleted (and Scheifele-suspended) Winnipeg Jets. The Canadiens looked in control and Carey Price has been Carey Price and looked very good including a shutout. The Canadiens now play the favourites for the cup Vegas. Vegas had the hardest assignment playing Colorado, the overall favourites. Colorado looked like they were going to cruise to the third round but the Knights came back winning four straight to go to the third round. I think they are gonna go to the stanley cup finals beating Montreal in 6. The other series Is Tampa vs. New York, Tampa has been not an underdog but not a favourite, beat very good teams in Florida and then Carolina. On one side you have Tampa who have been dominant over the past few years and New York who have been on a good run and have a legitimate chance. So I am going to go underdog New York in 7 but it could go both ways.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Kevin Pinto and Howie Kamen were the hottest poolies in round two, with Kevin collecting 65 points and stretching out a 16-point lead, and Howie jumping over 160 spots from 255th into the top 100. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Howie Kamen	163 (255,92)	Kevin Pinto	65
Cyril Beaman	160 (211,51)	Lucas Chua	55
Brandon Poitras	139 (167,28)	Paul Groba	52
Siyeon Lee	139 (267,128)	Allan Crisford	51
Andre Dube	137 (188,51)	Frank Pileggi	50

Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Ron Ego	154 (38,192)	Fraser Gallop	0
Joy Smith	131 (38,169)	Karen Savoie	2
Jay Dart	128 (29,157)	Campbell Clark-Smith	5
Dan Salerno	127 (135,262)	Tim Smith	5
Dave Spedding	124 (38,162)	Dan Salerno	5
Aaron Beder	124 (38,162)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Nikita Kucherov TAM 18 47

David Pastrnak BOS 15 46

Nathan MacKinnon COL 15 169

Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI 13 0

Gabriel Landeskog COL 13 8

Steven Stamkos TAM 13 12

Mikko Rantanen COL 13 109

Alex Killorn TAM 12 0

Brayden Point TAM 12 52

Brad Marchand BOS 12 93

Defense Team Pts Picks

Charles McAvoy BOS 12 10

Victor Hedman TAM 11 63

Cale Makar COL 10 132

Alex Pietrangelo VGK 8 11

Noah Dobson NYI 7 0

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Andrei Vasilevskiy TAM 18 57

Marc-Andre Fleury VGK 14 50

Cam Talbot MIN 13 0

Carey Price MON 13 2

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Vegas 283 52

Tampa Bay 242 20

NY Islanders 16 0

Montreal 10 2

OUT Picks Cups

Colorado 519 96

Carolina 242 16

Boston 227 18

Winnipeg 14 2

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2. So Vasilevskiy would earn another 4 wins and 1 shutout.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

4 1 1 Kevin Pinto 126 3 TBL 150
149 32 2 Norrin Ripsman 90 9 TBL 135
13 11 3 Tyler Dominato 100 5 TBL 132
21 2 4 Lucas Chua 110 3 TBL 130
6 3 4 Tom Nicholl 106 3 COL 130
79 14 4 Frank Pileggi 98 6 VGK 130
8 4 7 Jake Court 105 3 CAR 129
2 4 8 Ben Bangs 105 3 COL 128
2 6 9 Mike Johnson 104 3 COL 127
1 8 10 Adam Pileggi 102 3 COL 125
34 20 10 Scott Lee 94 5 TBL 125
66 11 12 Allan Crisford 100 3 TBL 124
8 13 13 Bobby Score 99 3 TBL 123
167 28 13 Brandon Poitras 91 6 BOS 123
21 15 15 Dylan Cosford 97 4 COL 122
49 8 16 Paul Groba 102 3 BOS 120
21 16 16 Tina Speciale 96 3 COL 120
21 16 16 Avery Spedding 96 3 COL 120
29 32 19 Cale Phibbs 90 5 VGK 119
38 20 20 Danny Cameron 94 4 TBL 118
29 69 20 Mike Cuddemi 83 6 VGK 118
16 20 22 Josh Martin 94 3 COL 117
16 20 22 Paul Martin 94 3 TOR 117
8 25 22 Rye Sawatzky 93 4 COL 117
121 36 22 Eli Hammerman 89 6 VGK 117
4 16 26 Christina Laronga 96 3 COL 116
211 51 26 Cyril Beaman 86 6 TBL 116
29 10 28 Scott Poitras 101 2 COL 115
66 27 28 Zayn Champsi 92 4 TBL 115
149 63 28 Hinz Chan 84 6 TBL 115
135 84 28 Herman Wood 80 6 VGK 115
26 7 32 Jerry Gluss 103 2 COL 114
8 20 32 Jesse Juranka 94 3 TOR 114
6 28 32 Martin Lefebvre 91 3 TOR 114
13 28 32 Tim Day 91 4 COL 114
34 28 36 Ron Wener 91 3 TBL 112
49 36 36 Phil Larade 89 3 TBL 112
121 99 36 Jamie Martin 78 6 VGK 112
66 49 39 Nicholas Nicodemo 87 4 PIT 111
29 32 40 Nathan Slack 90 3 TBL 110
49 92 40 Gary Brewster 79 5 TBL 110
8 36 42 Steve Sealy 89 3 COL 109
26 25 43 Cody Cabral 93 2 COL 108
21 32 43 Adam Marrus 90 2 COL 108
38 43 43 Michael Sinclair 88 3 TOR 108
38 43 43 Brenden Kennedy 88 3 COL 108
121 112 43 Stacy Martin 75 6 EDM 108
49 36 48 Muhammad Kazmi 89 4 COL 107
49 112 48 Francis Kennedy 75 6 VGK 107
135 112 48 Dennis Winkler 75 6 VGK 107
16 51 51 Samuel Wexler 86 3 EDM 106
49 57 51 Desmond Desrosier 85 3 EDM 106
49 36 53 Pierre Allard 89 3 VGK 104
135 43 54 Peta Allard 88 3 VGK 103
121 43 54 Dave Poitras 88 3 BOS 103
135 69 54 Doug Frazier 83 4 VGK 103
91 112 54 Shawn Glassford 75 5 PIT 103
38 75 58 Mike De Petrillo 82 3 COL 102
38 75 58 Diego DeMarco 82 3 COL 102
16 81 58 Steve Feltz 81 3 TOR 102
149 99 58 Wayne Kubis 78 3 TBL 102
211 134 58 Ruth Beder 71 6 VGK 102
38 36 63 Dan McGee 89 2 VGK 100
91 69 63 Ryan Chirnomas 83 3 COL 100
66 75 63 Ryan Courville 82 3 COL 100
66 84 63 Marie Loop 80 3 COL 100
26 57 67 Sam Raso 85 2 TOR 99
188 51 68 Andre Dube 86 3 COL 98
121 63 68 Brett Bowman 84 3 CAR 98
91 43 70 Jonah Rabinovitch 88 1 COL 97
66 51 70 Tyler Robinson 86 2 COL 97
49 51 70 Elaine Weidner 86 2 TOR 97
34 69 70 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 83 3 VGK 97
79 36 74 Francesco Varriano 89 2 COL 96
49 75 74 Edward Levens 82 3 CAR 96
79 134 74 Marc Ennis 71 4 VGK 96
108 19 77 Vince Pileggi 95 0 COL 95
108 63 77 Corey Messer 84 2 COL 95
66 63 77 Brian Bird 84 2 TOR 95
13 81 77 Mark Brewster 81 2 COL 95
79 57 81 Jack Walker 85 1 BOS 94
149 69 81 Will McGee 83 2 BOS 94
108 84 81 Steve Kent 80 3 VGK 94
224 99 81 Rachelle Gaudet 78 4 VGK 94
135 99 85 Kerry McShane 78 3 VGK 93
49 69 86 Sam Fielding 83 1 COL 92
91 84 86 Jeffrey Burke 80 3 TOR 92
211 99 86 Christopher Mossey 78 3 VGK 92
79 107 89 Dylan Montague 76 2 COL 91
121 157 89 Mark Matheson 67 3 STL 91
224 112 89 Della Santin 75 4 BOS 91
91 57 92 Jacqui Snow 85 1 COL 90
49 57 92 Al Champsi 85 1 COL 90
255 92 92 Howie Kamen 79 3 VGK 90
167 107 92 Adam Jamieson 76 3 VGK 90
49 43 96 John Thompson 88 0 COL 88
121 92 96 Adam Kazmi 79 2 COL 88
16 107 96 Azra Champsi 76 3 CAR 88
49 153 96 Daryl McGee 68 3 TBL 88
135 49 100 Donna Thompson 87 0 COL 87
149 112 100 Len Drewnowski 75 2 TOR 87
135 144 100 Ted Kennedy 69 2 EDM 87
108 51 103 Mike Hurley 86 0 CAR 86
121 112 103 Steve Vinette 75 2 CAR 86
66 112 103 Tyler Quigley 75 2 PIT 86
188 124 103 Sean Sargent 74 3 TOR 86
188 132 103 Shane Davey 72 3 VGK 86
79 183 103 Domenic DeMarco 64 4 VGK 86
108 57 109 Brandon Kubis 85 0 BOS 85
66 124 109 Michelle Heaphy 74 2 CAR 85
167 134 109 Karen Stern 71 3 VGK 85
66 63 112 David Lester 84 0 COL 84
121 63 112 Stephen Craig 84 0 COL 84
149 92 112 David Wong 79 1 TOR 84
188 106 112 Zack O'Gorman 77 2 VGK 84
267 128 112 Siyeon Lee 73 3 BOS 84
135 141 112 Marc De Sousa 70 3 VGK 84
135 84 118 Joel Greenstein 80 1 COL 83
135 84 118 Lizzy Freed 80 1 COL 83
167 141 118 Steve Kerlin 70 2 CAR 83
149 75 121 S Ripsman 82 0 COL 82
121 75 121 Phil Wiper 82 0 BOS 82
149 144 121 Mouli Ramani 69 3 MTL 82
167 153 121 Tracy Smith 68 3 TOR 82
135 203 121 Michael Varriano 62 3 TBL 82
211 207 121 Peter Seemann 61 4 VGK 82
167 81 127 Graham Haines 81 0 COL 81
108 144 127 Dan Meister 69 3 COL 81
242 153 127 Amina Champsi 68 3 COL 81
167 162 127 Andrea De Petrillo 66 3 VGK 81
262 169 127 John Walsh 65 3 TOR 81
167 84 132 Andrew Ryan 80 0 BOS 80
108 84 132 Matt Steeves 80 0 COL 80
108 203 132 Andrew Kichler 62 2 TOR 80
66 162 132 Ron Weidner 66 3 VGK 80
242 192 132 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 63 3 VGK 80
167 207 132 Simon Rabinovitch 61 3 TOR 80
49 92 138 Fraser Macdonald 79 0 TOR 79
211 92 138 Todd Foster 79 0 COL 79
121 92 138 Ariel Aziza 79 0 COL 79
91 124 138 Alistair Viegas 74 1 COL 79
135 169 138 Arely Marquez 65 3 VGK 79
211 169 138 Austin Neilson 65 3 COL 79
149 99 144 Greg Baca 78 0 COL 78
34 99 144 Shane Kozlowich 78 0 WPG 78
38 192 144 Ron Ego 63 3 TOR 78
149 107 147 Lori Winkler 76 1 WPG 77
167 112 147 Christopher Cito 75 1 CAR 77
91 157 147 David Gibbons 67 2 COL 77
255 183 147 Paula Santin 64 3 MTL 77
188 107 151 Samara McAdam 76 0 COL 76
211 128 151 Brett Babkirk 73 1 COL 76
277 169 151 Mark Norman 65 3 VGK 76
167 207 151 Daniel Levay 61 3 VGK 76
91 112 155 Andy Hotson 75 0 COL 75
167 112 155 Jeff Wood 75 0 COL 75
91 112 155 Jordan Ungerman 75 0 COL 75
188 207 155 Claudia Scarciolla-Winkler 61 3 EDM 75
108 214 155 Denise Allard 60 3 VGK 75
49 124 160 Anthony Bruno 74 0 TOR 74
242 219 160 Brock Larade 59 3 TOR 74
201 219 160 Tim Sowden 59 3 VGK 74
201 219 160 Aaron Allard 59 3 VGK 74
188 128 164 Dennis Clayton 73 0 COL 73
66 128 164 Douglas Wilkinson 73 0 COL 73
224 144 164 Geraldine Comeau 69 1 PIT 73
79 132 167 Sean Smith 72 0 COL 72
167 134 168 Theo & Dimitri Soudas 71 0 COL 71
91 134 168 Jonah Wood 71 0 COL 71
211 134 168 Neil Poitras 71 0 COL 71
91 134 168 Chiara DeMarco 71 0 TOR 71
167 183 168 Joel Kronis 64 2 COL 71
149 183 168 Andrew Ford 64 2 COL 71
280 223 168 Isaac Nielsen 58 3 VGK 71
38 141 175 Greg Seemann 70 0 COL 70
79 169 175 Dustin Hall 65 1 TOR 70
201 237 175 Brett Kirkpatrick 56 3 TOR 70
201 237 175 Cathy Bruno 56 3 VGK 70
121 144 179 Micheal Nguyen 69 0 COL 69
135 144 179 Daisy Marquez 69 0 COL 69
188 144 179 Sean Desjardins 69 0 COL 69
224 144 179 David Loop 69 0 BOS 69
234 144 179 Marc Dupuis 69 0 CAR 69
91 169 179 Ace Mandel 65 1 FLA 69
167 169 179 Stephanie Paquette 65 1 COL 69
211 192 179 James Smith 63 2 COL 69
167 203 179 Grant Gillan 62 2 VGK 69
149 223 179 Mathew Seemann 58 2 VGK 69
211 223 179 George Smith 58 3 TOR 69
234 153 190 Colby Foster 68 0 BOS 68
201 183 190 Sidney Gluss 64 1 COL 68
108 192 190 Kevin Douglas 63 1 TOR 68
188 230 190 Andrew MacIntyre 57 2 VGK 68
224 249 190 Lisa Slack 52 3 TOR 68
66 157 195 Ethan Craig 67 0 COL 67
29 157 195 Jay Dart 67 0 COL 67
167 157 195 Nolan Ash 67 0 CAR 67
149 192 195 Michael McShane 63 1 PIT 67
149 214 195 Kamerni Pillay 60 1 VGK 67
242 219 195 Graham Milner 59 2 VGK 67
234 237 195 David Schamma 56 3 TOR 67
224 249 195 Frank Iusi 52 3 TOR 67
91 162 203 David Hart 66 0 COL 66
38 162 203 Aaron Beder 66 0 TOR 66
91 162 203 John Coulton 66 0 COL 66
224 162 203 Nolan Sarner 66 0 CAR 66
38 162 203 Dave Spedding 66 0 COL 66
38 169 208 Joy Smith 65 0 COL 65
108 169 208 Russell Reed 65 0 TOR 65
49 169 208 Rachel Parent 65 0 TOR 65
108 169 208 Ava McAdam-Beder 65 0 COL 65
79 169 208 Larry Coole 65 0 CAR 65
108 169 208 Manny Amaral 65 0 TOR 65
49 169 208 Cooper Levens 65 0 TOR 65
234 214 208 Trevor Labrecque 60 1 BOS 65
211 254 208 Dave Michael 51 3 TOR 65
242 259 208 Shawn Morrison 50 3 VGK 65
242 259 208 Laura Speciale 50 3 VGK 65
121 183 219 Owen Thompson 64 0 PIT 64
91 183 219 Emily Clayton 64 0 FLA 64
121 183 219 Jeff Williams 64 0 CAR 64
279 183 219 Amy van Steendelaar 64 0 BOS 64
167 230 219 Jack Budd 57 2 VGK 64
149 237 219 Mike van Steendelaar 56 2 COL 64
211 192 225 Jessica Thompson 63 0 PIT 63
79 192 225 Vincent Galante 63 0 COL 63
79 192 225 Hugh MacPhie 63 0 COL 63
211 192 225 Blair Miller 63 0 COL 63
262 192 225 Michael Parak 63 0 EDM 63
79 192 225 Shannon Brewster 63 0 FLA 63
242 243 225 Barbara Kennedy 54 1 TBL 63
267 249 225 Mike Siegler 52 3 WSH 63
91 203 233 Amelia Thompson 62 0 COL 62
167 223 233 Thomas Smith 58 1 TOR 62
234 267 233 Dave Keystone 48 3 VGK 62
267 271 233 Estella Mae Charlotte Kennedy 47 3 VGK 62
91 207 237 Peter Tanner 61 0 COL 61
167 207 237 Bruce Bird 61 0 TOR 61
234 207 237 Alex Cleveland 61 0 TOR 61
255 262 237 Jonas Struthers 49 3 TOR 61
262 262 237 KC Swink 49 3 FLA 61
242 271 237 Rob Phillips 47 3 VGK 61
242 271 237 Judah Gould 47 3 TOR 61
201 214 244 Ryan Thompson 60 0 COL 60
201 214 244 Zackary Winkler 60 0 COL 60
188 223 246 Nolan Coole 58 1 CAR 59
188 249 246 Richard Gretzinger 52 2 TOR 59
262 267 246 Harper Christie-Allard 48 3 PIT 59
224 223 249 Carl Pledger 58 0 COL 58
149 223 249 Hugh McShane 58 0 COL 58
281 271 249 Erin Jones 47 3 PIT 58
281 230 252 Silvio Memme 57 0 BOS 57
149 230 252 Ryan Slack 57 0 TOR 57
149 230 252 Todd Beaman 57 0 COL 57
167 230 252 Tony Bruno 57 0 TOR 57
224 230 252 Harris Beder 57 0 TOR 57
201 247 252 Anna Kwan 53 1 TOR 57
281 277 252 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 45 3 VGK 57
285 278 259 Hugh Freedman 44 3 TOR 56
188 241 260 Steve Anderson 55 0 COL 55
201 241 260 Paul Ornstein 55 0 COL 55
201 243 260 Gareth Neilson 54 1 COL 55
272 267 260 Duncan Campbell 48 2 TOR 55
272 271 260 Connor Brewster 47 3 VGK 55
255 243 265 Paolo Scarciolla 54 0 PIT 54
255 243 265 Dan Cleveland 54 0 COL 54
224 247 267 Colin Kennedy 53 0 TOR 53
234 249 268 Andrew Wood 52 0 COL 52
242 254 269 Mitch Wexler 51 0 PIT 51
242 254 269 Jon Tafler 51 0 TOR 51
242 254 269 Tommy Juranka 51 0 TOR 51
255 254 269 Adam Bloedow 51 0 BOS 51
272 271 269 Miriam Pokorski 47 1 TOR 51
255 278 269 Katarina Ornstein 44 2 VGK 51
188 259 275 Phil Victor 50 0 CAR 50
135 262 276 Dan Salerno 49 0 TOR 49
267 262 276 Andrew Mckenzie 49 0 TOR 49
262 262 276 Dryden Craig 49 0 COL 49
285 285 276 Jeff Bangs 37 3 TBL 49
272 267 280 Eddie J W Kennedy 48 0 BOS 48
234 280 281 Tim Smith 42 0 TOR 42
281 286 281 Colin McSweeney 35 2 EDM 42
272 281 283 Chris Smith 39 0 TOR 39
277 282 284 Jeff Lucas 38 0 BOS 38
242 282 284 Karen Savoie 38 0 TOR 38
267 282 284 Campbell Clark-Smith 38 0 PIT 38
287 287 287 Fraser Gallop 23 1 EDM 23