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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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Mikko Rantanen and Kyle Connor provided the game 7 heroics, and lead the pool. |
Two late game seven comebacks to end round one had many pool hopes dashed one night and saved the next. The result: Colorado's 564 picks are out while Winnipeg's 517 stay in. The Avs' loss eliminates the two top picks, Cale Makar (226) and Nathan MacKinnon (208). Tampa Bay (435) was the only other favoured team to be upset, and the six bottom teams are all out.
With eight strong teams remaining, there are a record 90 entries with a full slate of 9 players, many with a legitimate chance to land on the podium.
Winnipeg | 517 | 97 |
Toronto | 510 | 93 |
Edmonton | 448 | 22 |
Vegas | 407 | 30 |
Washington | 228 | 16 |
Florida | 174 | 11 |
Dallas | 125 | 16 |
Carolina | 109 | 8 |
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Colorado | 564 | 62 |
Tampa Bay | 435 | 44 |
Los Angeles | 67 | 5 |
Montreal | 48 | 4 |
Ottawa | 31 | 3 |
St Louis | 22 | 1 |
Minnesota | 16 | 0 |
New Jersey | 7 | 0 |
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Winnipeg and Toronto, the top two in Cup picks (97-93) and now in players (517-510) betray the pool's Canadian pride, and entering round 2 hopes remain for their meeting in the Finals. It would be amazing indeed. With dark horse teams Florida and Dallas in the way, it won't be easy, and either of these teams winning can alter the tragectory of the pool. If both the Leafs and Jets lose this round, um, I might win the pool. Please don't hate me if that happens.
The stars of their teams' last minute comebacks, Mikko Rantanen on Saturday and Kyle Connor on Sunday, used their heroics to tie for the round one scoring lead with 12 points. Next their teams, Dallas and Winnipeg, will face off in round two. Connor's 152 picks are second only to Connor McDavid (176) among remaining players.
With 855 picks in play, the Edmonton-Vegas series has the most picks at stake. Connor McDavid (176 picks), Jack Eichel (152), and Leon Draisaitl (150) are all among the top players and no matter who wins, over 400 picks will be eliminated.
Blaire Golledge and Gabe Pretto lead after round 1 with 76 points. Losing the Avs however, will likely knock them down. Chris Bulpit is three back in third, but also lost a player. This leaves fourth-placed me as the top entry with a full nine (FLA-DAL-EDM), one point ahead of Zachary Winkler (TOR-DAL-EDM) and the five-entry bloc of Tim Smith, Dennis Clayton, Andrew Tompkins, Zack O'Gorman, Sean Sargent (WPG-TOR-EDM).
Where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same as round one? Check out the projection below.
A five-point playoff is not horrible compared to most first round busts. Indeed Cale Makar, who had a pool-leading 226 picks this year, had 5 points for 195 picks in 2023, when David Pastrnak had 5 for 229 picks and didn't get the prize. Tampa's Nikita Kucherov(4 pts, 155 picks) or Brayden Point (2, 74) could also "merit" this. But Makar was the top dog in the pool, making it a disappointing outcome. Greats like Crosby, Ovechkin, and Brodeur (3x) have earned this distinction, and now Makar has joined them.
Biggest busts over the years: 2025: Makar; 2024 - Hellebuyck; 2023 - Lindholm (should have said Pastrnak); 2022 - Huberdeau; 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Charlie Beder scores this award this year for being the only one to pick Cam Fowler. The Blues defenseman had 10 points to lead all D's including a five-point game. Unfortunately for Charlie, the Blues are done.
Major players on their way out: Makar, COL, 226 picks, MacKinnon, COL, 208; Kucherov, TBL, 155; Necas, COL, 84; Hedman, TBL, 82; Point, TBL, 74; Vasilevskiy, TBL, 66.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Mikko Rantanen |
DAL |
12 |
36 |
Kyle Connor |
WPG |
12 |
152 |
Connor McDavid |
EDM |
11 |
176 |
Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
11 |
208 |
Adrian Kempe |
LAK |
10 |
19 |
Leon Draisaitl |
EDM |
10 |
151 |
Kirill Kaprizov |
MIN |
9 |
7 |
Anze Kopitar |
LAK |
9 |
10 |
Dylan Strome |
WSH |
9 |
60 |
William Nylander |
TOR |
9 |
96 |
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Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Cam Fowler |
STL |
10 |
1 |
Evan Bouchard |
EDM |
7 |
106 |
Colton Parayko |
STL |
6 |
1 |
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Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Sergei Bobrovsky |
FLA |
9 |
31 |
Mackenzie Blackwood |
COL |
8 |
22 |
Linus Ullmark |
OTT |
7 |
5 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Mikko Rantanen and Kyle Connor would get another 12 points each.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.
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