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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Round 1 Analysis
An exciting first round had only one upset, and although they were heavily favoured and wagered upon, many have known about the sad San Jose story from years past. Fewer people took them with their picks this year, but far more to win the Cup. Other than #12 Anaheim beating the #2 Sharks, the only other lower team to win was Chicago (#9) over Calgary (#7) which could be called an even match.

So despite the first round attrition rate going up this year over the past two - to 25.9% - most of it is from our new favourite losers from the west - 18.1% of the pool.

In another demonstration of good picking this year, no entries lost all of their players in the first round (there are usually at least a few), and only one that lost eight players. Well done everyone.

Simeon Varlamov
Simeon Varlamov has upstaged Alex Ovechkin in the playoffs thus far.
Early line
Judy Wood and Samuel Wexler are tied on top after round one. Sam led most of the round, which is a rarity for round one, as his picks held strong from the opening night to the end of the round. His Pittsburgh, Washington, and Vancouver picks are well positioned to continue on their pace through round two; the only thing that would have topped that off was for New Jersey to hang on for the last minute of game seven, so the Pens and Caps could meet in the third round.

Judy Wood's similar picks to Sam but with the inclusion of two Anaheim players positions her well to surge ahead. An Anaheim victory over Detroit would be big news here, but she will suffer along with her co-leader with the loss of either the Pens or Caps.

The odds-makers will likely give Martha Gill the inside chance if her teams, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago go through to round three. Martha is only one point behind and is among the few who can get through to round three unscathed. The nearest other who can do this is Aron Slipacoff, eight points behind.

. The dubious but scientific Round 2 Projections are available below... see where you will ficticiously rank!

Most top players alive
With San Jose as the only legitimate upset, most of the top-picked players in the pool are still alive. The most popular player to be eliminated was Joe Thornton, who was the second-ranked forward with 111 picks. Dan Boyle (62), Patrick Marleau (59), and Evgeny Nabokov (53) were the other key players to drop. Jarome Iginla (19) leads the rest of the eliminated players.

The remaining players are tightly bunched in the scoring department. Might we see a Johan Franzen-style round two surge this year?

Biggest Bust
Last year Martin Brodeur became the first multiple-winner of the Lord Stanley Biggest Bust award, but despite his last-minute implosion in game seven, he did not factor significantly enough to get the tag a third time. This year's candidates of course come from San Jose. Joe Thornton would have been an easy choice had it not been for his three-point game, five overall. The winner this year is: Evgeni Nabokov! Fifty-three people pegged him as their goaltender and to show for it, he got a scant two points. Well done.

Biggest busts over the years: 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Light a fire under this guy
Pavel Datsyuk, the third-ranked player in the pool, has but two points for 105 picks. As one of the best in the league much more is expected of him... so he'd better get it going in round two. Fortunately there is a lot of parity in the pool this year so it should only take a couple of big games to put him back in the thick of things.

Numerous darkhorse picks to get that edge
This year darkhorse picks appear to be plentiful, with Ryan Getzlaf - 8 points, 6 picks, Michael Ryder (7, 4) and Ray Whitney (7, 6) leading the way. These are the difference-makers in the pool, who benefit a few owners a great deal because no one else has them. We don't, however, have a clear winner of the Hindsight Award for being the only poolie to pick a particular key player.

Equally interesting this year is the number of players not picked at all who are in the scoring hunt. Chad LaRose, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp, and the top three defensemen - Cam Barker, Tom Poti, and Brent Seabrook are all making a big impact. Four of those six are from Chicago.

Unknown goaltender's duel
With Evgeni Nabokov's disposal the battle will turn to Tim Thomas and Roberto Luongo as the pool's most wagered goalies. But perhaps the biggest story of the playoffs - and biggest missed opportunity in the pool - is the emergence of two unknown goaltenders to lead the pool overall and in the goaltending department. Anaheim's Jonas Hiller and Washington's Simeon Varlamov each had two shutouts and lead the league with 14 pool points. Of the two, Varlamov's the greater surprise because he started the playoffs on the bench and for good reason - he had played in only five and a half NHL games in his career. Of course Jose Theodore, who he replaced, was wisely avoided by all poolies.

One entry disqualified
Keen standings watchers may have noticed that last place recently became #185 instead of #186. Unfortunately this year like last year we have an individual who did not pay by the deadline and was disqualified. I never like to do it but rules are rules - and I need to make sure people pay early enough, before "choosing" not to pay if they realize they're not going to win. Thank you to the 185 who paid up and good luck the rest of the way! Grand prize: $1110. 2nd place: $555. 3rd: $185.

Round 2 predictions
With Brodeur's last minute choke I was reduced to 5 for 8 correct picks in the first round (Bos, Was, Pit, Det, Van). So I certainly expect to win a clean sweep in round two. This round I will be a little more bold. My round 2 predictions: Carolina with the upset; Pittsburgh; Detroit; Vancouver.

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Evgeni Malkin PIT 9 70
Ryan Getzlaf ANA 8 6
Alexander Semin WAS 8 41
Sidney Crosby PIT 8 65
Chad LaRose CAR 7 0
Kris Versteeg CHI 7 0
Michael Ryder BOS 7 4
Ray Whitney CAR 7 6
Three others with 8
Defense Team Pts Picks
Cam Barker CHI 6 0
Tom Poti WAS 6 0
Brent Seabrook CHI 6 0
       
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Jonas Hiller ANA 14 0
Simeon Varlamov WAS 14 0
Three goalies with 9
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups 
Detroit 323 34
Washington 300 8
Boston 254 36
Pittsburgh 176 18
Vancouver 91 16
Carolina 40 4
Chicago 36 3
Anaheim 14 2
OUT Picks Cups
San Jose 302 55
Calgary 43 3
Philadelphia 35 3
New Jersey 34 4
Montreal 8 0
St.Louis 4 0
NY Rangers 3 0
Columbus 2 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1, so Jonas Hiller and Simeon Varlamov would both get another two shutouts and 14 points (not likely!).

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
11Samuel Wexler12060000.0%PIT
11Judy Wood12060000.0%VAN
33Martha Gill11859000.0%CAR
64Mike Walsh11457000.0%PIT
45Dennis Clayton11258146.9%VAN
76David Minuk10756158.9%DET
47Mouli Ramani1045831220.7%WSH
147Julian Vardy10452000.0%ANA
147Aron Slipacoff10452000.0%VAN
710Aaron Allard103562916.1%VAN
910Alex Walsh10354159.3%CAR
910Rohit Chandra10354159.3%PIT
2113Candace Unterschute10251000.0%VAN
2113Sean Smith10251000.0%CAR
2113Wayne Wood10251000.0%ANA
1216Georgina Hubbard10153159.4%SJS
2617Jen Reilly10050000.0%BOS
2617Sean Sargent10050000.0%VAN
2617John Upper10050000.0%DET
2617Ryan Slack10050000.0%DET
1421Brent Morris9952159.6%DET
1421Adam Bloedow9952159.6%BOS
3323Jerome Brouard9849000.0%DET
1224Jay Dart97532917.0%DET
925Mohan Krishnamoorthy965431222.2%SJS
1425Richard Doane96522815.4%SJS
1425Michael Patton96522815.4%DET
3325Greg Yaroff9649124.1%DET
4125Kyle Hogg9648000.0%WSH
1430Peter Sadlier-Brown95522917.3%BOS
2630Paul Synnott95501510.0%BOS
4932Barry Potter9447000.0%VAN
4932Andy Hotson9447000.0%CAR
4932Becke Gainforth9447000.0%WSH
4932Einar Gainforth-Beech9447000.0%DET
4932AJ Stais9447000.0%VAN
2137Sharon Boitson93513917.6%CGY
4137Jo-Ann Fahey9348136.3%PIT
2139Samara McAdam925131019.6%SJS
3339Li Tan92491612.2%PIT
6339Bryan Wood9246000.0%BOS
6339Roger Brouard9246000.0%BOS
6339Lee Beech9246000.0%BOS
3344Scott Hamilton91492714.3%DET
4144Karen Savoie91481510.4%PIT
4946Peter Holland9047148.5%DET
7646George Smith9045000.0%BOS
2648David Hood895031122.0%PIT
3348Cassandra Jackaman89492918.4%DET
4948Richard Rikkonen89471510.6%VAN
4948Chad McVean89471510.6%BOS
4948Paul Baran89471510.6%VAN
2653Keith Chappell885031224.0%PIT
4153Dwight Butler88482816.7%BOS
6353David Lester8846148.7%PIT
8653Steven Hawley8844000.0%BOS
8653Al Champsi8844000.0%DET
8653Harris Beder8844000.0%BOS
8653Barrett Boitson8844000.0%BOS
3360Shane Kozlowich874931122.4%SJS
3360George Crothers874931122.4%SJS
6360Michael MacDonald87461510.9%CHI
7660Sam Fielding8745136.7%BOS
7660Domenic Vendittelli8745136.7%BOS
9565Jeff Hammond8643000.0%DET
9565David Loop8643000.0%CHI
9565Dan Salerno8643000.0%BOS
3368Judah Gould854931326.5%SJS
4168Patrick Provost854831122.9%SJS
4968Mike Melanson85472919.1%PIT
4171Rhonda Morris844831225.0%SJS
4971Patrick Bouchard844731021.3%SJS
11271Richard Gretzinger8442000.0%VAN
11271Gabe Pretto8442000.0%DET
6375Michael Clowater83462919.6%PIT
4976Mike De Petrillo824731225.5%PIT
4976Nina Lozano824731225.5%DET
9576Hank Shannon8243349.3%VAN
4179George Roman814841531.3%PHI
6379Rob Phillips814631123.9%SJS
6379Mary Sue Strickland814631123.9%SJS
9579Chris Kelley81431511.6%DET
6383John Crossingham804631226.1%SJS
7683Brendan Browne804531022.2%SJS
7683April De Mello804531022.2%SJS
7683Patrick Gill804531022.2%PIT
11283Steve Sealy8042149.5%PIT
4188Jeff Drisdelle794841735.4%SJS
8688Daniel Wiseman79442920.5%SJS
9588Colin Kennedy79432716.3%VAN
11288Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff79421511.9%BOS
11288Fraser Macdonald79421511.9%DET
11288Isa Boucher79421511.9%BOS
12388Marilyn Beaulieu7941137.3%PIT
7695Gabriel Strachan784531226.7%DET
7695Andrew Hamilton784531226.7%VAN
8695Lee McLeod784431022.7%SJS
8695Ron Wener784431022.7%SJS
8695Brenden Kennedy784431022.7%SJS
8695Vincent Galante784431022.7%SJS
9595Aaron Pretto78433818.6%WSH
9595Alvin Gainforth78432818.6%BOS
63103Duncan Campbell774641532.6%SJS
63103Puya Vakili-Zad774631532.6%BOS
76103Ford Hatchett774531328.9%BOS
112103Todd Beaman77423716.7%DET
95107Mitch Hatchett764331023.3%BOS
95107Mark Fahey764331023.3%PIT
95107Russell Reed764331023.3%SJS
95107Tracy Smith764331023.3%SJS
123107Deric Chow76412614.6%WSH
95112Jean-Yves Bouchard754331125.6%SJS
112112David Van Kula75422921.4%DET
95114Brian Labonte744331227.9%SJS
112114Georgia Strachan744231023.8%DET
112114Kristie Baran744231023.8%SJS
133114Jason Roy74402615.0%DET
95118Ryan Chirnomas734331330.2%DET
123118Ashleigh Harrington73413922.0%SJS
133118Elliott Silverstein73402717.5%BOS
155118Steven Kjellberg7338137.9%DET
166118Della Santin7337112.7%BOS
63123Lindsay Adams724642043.5%SJS
123123Vicki Lewis724131024.4%PHI
123123Brad Hotson724131024.4%WSH
123123Joy Smith724131024.4%SJS
133123Ian Burrows72403820.0%BOS
170123Ted Kennedy7236000.0%WSH
123129Mike Newbauer714131126.8%DET
123129Kevin Hoey714131126.8%SJS
123129Ian Winsor714131126.8%SJS
133129Mike van Steendelaar71402922.5%BOS
143129Red Macaw71392717.9%BOS
123134Marco Pazzano704131229.3%PIT
133134Jeff Williams704031025.0%SJS
133134Jim Dart704031025.0%SJS
143134Adam Jamieson70392820.5%BOS
133138Stuart Klein694031127.5%SJS
133138Grace DeSantis-Peragine694031127.5%SJS
133138Mitch Wexler694031127.5%DET
143138Roger Savoie69393923.1%BOS
143138James McAndrew69392923.1%VAN
143143Laura Wood683931025.6%SJS
143143Renee Loubert683931025.6%SJS
155145Nicholas Gafuik67382923.7%DET
133146Tim Smith664041435.0%CHI
143146Brendan Hoey663941230.8%DET
155146Pierre Gainforth-Beech663831026.3%SJS
155146Terry Hoey663831026.3%SJS
155146Bo Chen663831026.3%SJS
155146Paul Markowski663821026.3%BOS
170146Jonas Struthers66362616.7%BOS
49153Stephen Craig654762961.7%NJD
76153Kevin Hinch654562555.6%WSH
95153Jean-Pierre Reilly654342148.8%DET
155153Abraham McAllister653831128.9%BOS
63157Norrin Ripsman644652860.9%NJD
166157Cheryl Wallace643741027.0%PIT
155157Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff643831231.6%SJS
155157Jordana Wexler643831231.6%SJS
155157Shadd Dales643831231.6%SJS
166162Scott Strachan623731232.4%SJS
170162Matthew Stiles623631027.8%SJS
95164Blake Wood614362558.1%VAN
112164Shawn Robichaud614262354.8%SJS
143164Edwin NewmanJones613951743.6%SJS
166167Craig Endicott603741437.8%SJS
174167Chris Smith603531028.6%BOS
143169Bill Hammond593951948.7%SJS
155169Gaston Bouchard593841744.7%SJS
174169Joel Pollock593531131.4%SJS
170172Stephen Kennedy563641644.4%BOS
176172Carol Hatchett563441235.3%BOS
176172Alan Eng563431235.3%SJS
178175Nam Nguyen513351545.5%CGY
181175Don Fudge51293724.1%DET
143177Richard Ciano493962974.4%DET
143177Ryan Spencer493962974.4%NJD
143177Sophie Wexler493962974.4%NJD
181180Patrick Mitchell482941034.5%SJS
178181Jerry Rynda463352060.6%SJS
180182Andrew Ryan413162167.7%DET
184183Dan Sullivan402861657.1%BOS
181184Emma and Andrew Fielding372962172.4%PHI
185185Hanna-Marea Kennedy292281568.2%CGY







Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.