
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
An exciting first round had only one upset, and although they were heavily favoured and wagered upon, many have known about the sad San Jose story from years past. Fewer people took them with their picks this year, but far more to win the Cup. Other than #12 Anaheim beating the #2 Sharks, the only other lower team to win was Chicago (#9) over Calgary (#7) which could be called an even match.
So despite the first round attrition rate going up this year over the past two - to 25.9% - most of it is from our new favourite losers from the west - 18.1% of the pool.
In another demonstration of good picking this year, no entries lost all of their players in the first round (there are usually at least a few), and only one that lost eight players. Well done everyone.
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Simeon Varlamov has upstaged Alex Ovechkin in the playoffs thus far. |
Judy Wood and Samuel Wexler are tied on top after round one. Sam led most of the round, which is a rarity for round one, as his picks held strong from the opening night to the end of the round. His Pittsburgh, Washington, and Vancouver picks are well positioned to continue on their pace through round two; the only thing that would have topped that off was for New Jersey to hang on for the last minute of game seven, so the Pens and Caps could meet in the third round.
Judy Wood's similar picks to Sam but with the inclusion of two Anaheim players positions her well to surge ahead. An Anaheim victory over Detroit would be big news here, but she will suffer along with her co-leader with the loss of either the Pens or Caps.
The odds-makers will likely give Martha Gill the inside chance if her teams, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Chicago go through to round three. Martha is only one point behind and is among the few who can get through to round three unscathed. The nearest other who can do this is Aron Slipacoff, eight points behind.
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The dubious but scientific Round 2 Projections are available below... see where you will ficticiously rank!
With San Jose as the only legitimate upset, most of the top-picked players in the pool are still alive. The most popular player to be eliminated was Joe Thornton, who was the second-ranked forward with 111 picks. Dan Boyle (62), Patrick Marleau (59), and Evgeny Nabokov (53) were the other key players to drop. Jarome Iginla (19) leads the rest of the eliminated players.
The remaining players are tightly bunched in the scoring department. Might we see a Johan Franzen-style round two surge this year?
Last year Martin Brodeur became the first multiple-winner of the Lord Stanley Biggest Bust award, but despite his last-minute implosion in game seven, he did not factor significantly enough to get the tag a third time. This year's candidates of course come from San Jose. Joe Thornton would have been an easy choice had it not been for his three-point game, five overall. The winner this year is: Evgeni Nabokov! Fifty-three people pegged him as their goaltender and to show for it, he got a scant two points. Well done.
Biggest busts over the years: 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Pavel Datsyuk, the third-ranked player in the pool, has but two points for 105 picks. As one of the best in the league much more is expected of him... so he'd better get it going in round two. Fortunately there is a lot of parity in the pool this year so it should only take a couple of big games to put him back in the thick of things.
This year darkhorse picks appear to be plentiful, with Ryan Getzlaf - 8 points, 6 picks, Michael Ryder (7, 4) and Ray Whitney (7, 6) leading the way. These are the difference-makers in the pool, who benefit a few owners a great deal because no one else has them. We don't, however, have a clear winner of the Hindsight Award for being the only poolie to pick a particular key player.
Equally interesting this year is the number of players not picked at all who are in the scoring hunt. Chad LaRose, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp, and the top three defensemen - Cam Barker, Tom Poti, and Brent Seabrook are all making a big impact. Four of those six are from Chicago.
With Evgeni Nabokov's disposal the battle will turn to Tim Thomas and Roberto Luongo as the pool's most wagered goalies. But perhaps the biggest story of the playoffs - and biggest missed opportunity in the pool - is the emergence of two unknown goaltenders to lead the pool overall and in the goaltending department. Anaheim's Jonas Hiller and Washington's Simeon Varlamov each had two shutouts and lead the league with 14 pool points. Of the two, Varlamov's the greater surprise because he started the playoffs on the bench and for good reason - he had played in only five and a half NHL games in his career. Of course Jose Theodore, who he replaced, was wisely avoided by all poolies.
Keen standings watchers may have noticed that last place recently became #185 instead of #186. Unfortunately this year like last year we have an individual who did not pay by the deadline and was disqualified. I never like to do it but rules are rules - and I need to make sure people pay early enough, before "choosing" not to pay if they realize they're not going to win. Thank you to the 185 who paid up and good luck the rest of the way! Grand prize: $1110. 2nd place: $555. 3rd: $185.
With Brodeur's last minute choke I was reduced to 5 for 8 correct picks in the first round (Bos, Was, Pit, Det, Van). So I certainly expect to win a clean sweep in round two. This round I will be a little more bold. My round 2 predictions: Carolina with the upset; Pittsburgh; Detroit; Vancouver.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Evgeni Malkin |
PIT |
9 |
70 |
Ryan Getzlaf |
ANA |
8 |
6 |
Alexander Semin |
WAS |
8 |
41 |
Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
8 |
65 |
Chad LaRose |
CAR |
7 |
0 |
Kris Versteeg |
CHI |
7 |
0 |
Michael Ryder |
BOS |
7 |
4 |
Ray Whitney |
CAR |
7 |
6 |
Three others with |
|
8 |
|
|
Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Cam Barker |
CHI |
6 |
0 |
Tom Poti |
WAS |
6 |
0 |
Brent Seabrook |
CHI |
6 |
0 |
|
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|
|
Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Jonas Hiller |
ANA |
14 |
0 |
Simeon Varlamov |
WAS |
14 |
0 |
Three goalies with |
|
9 |
|
|
Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
Detroit |
323 |
34 |
Washington |
300 |
8 |
Boston |
254 |
36 |
Pittsburgh |
176 |
18 |
Vancouver |
91 |
16 |
Carolina |
40 |
4 |
Chicago |
36 |
3 |
Anaheim |
14 |
2 |
|
OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
San Jose |
302 |
55 |
Calgary |
43 |
3 |
Philadelphia |
35 |
3 |
New Jersey |
34 |
4 |
Montreal |
8 |
0 |
St.Louis |
4 |
0 |
NY Rangers |
3 |
0 |
Columbus |
2 |
0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1, so Jonas Hiller and Simeon Varlamov would both get another two shutouts and 14 points (not likely!).
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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