Round 3 Analysis

Will Hossa play spoiler - in the Finals and in the pool?

Repeat! For the first time in 25 years we have a rematch in the Stanley Cup Finals. Last time, the young guns got their revenge. Of course, last time Jari Kurri hadn't gone to play for the Islanders. We shall see what effect Marian Hossa's move will have.

Congratulations to those who picked six players from Pittsburgh and Detroit this year. Six of the top 20 did so... by contrast, 17 of the top 20 after round three last year had done so. Like last year (and most), this year's competitive pool will come down to who wins the Cup.

Repeat... Pool Winners?
A very interesting story (or, coincidence) is shaping up at the top of the standings. Last year, when Detroit defeated Pittsburgh, Bo Chen claimed the top prize by a wide margin, defeating challenger Karen Savoie who had picked the Pens and ended out of the money. Had the Pens won, Bo would have won the pool by one point over Karen. This year, with the same two teams in the finals, we have a similar possibility. If Pittsburgh wins, Li Tan - whose beau is Bo - may cash in with Karen locked in one point behind her. In the pool's history (not including Shoot for Gold contests) no money winners have been in the top three two years in a row. Only Vince Brescia has won two pools - 1999 and 2001 when there were fewer participants.

The contenders
All of the remaining contenders have many of the same players, in particular Malkin and Crosby who are on all of these entries and are thus factored out of the equation entirely. Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Lidstrom are on many of the contenders as well as Marc-Andre Fleury. On the other hand, Marian Hossa and Chris Osgood could be the difference-makers. Let's examine the contenders.

If Pittsburgh wins: Mike Walsh emerged at the end of round two and built a strong lead through round three - most importantly against fellow Pittsburgh pickers. He hopes to hang on despite not having any players that his opponents do not. Li Tan, and Karen Savoie one point behind her, have Zetterberg, Lidstrom, and Datsyuk and need 15 points to overcome the leader. They only need a few points more than Samuel Wexler (who only has Gonchar in his corner) to push him out of the money. Ryan Slack would finish tied with Karen and split either the second and third prizes, or just the third prize.

If Detroit wins: Ryan Slack, who climbed into second place in round three, is almost assured the victory if Detroit wins the Cup. He would only drop to second if Hossa gets a dozen more points than Lidstrom, or if Osgood gets a string of shutouts. Jerome Brouard, who finished one point out of the money last year, is hoping to hang on this time and is likely to do so unless Fleury gets a string of shutouts but still loses the series. Third place would be interesting: Mike Walsh could hold on but only has Fleury and a seven point lead over Peter Holland, John Upper, and David Minuk who have a bunch of Red Wings including Hossa, Datsyuk, Osgood, and Zetterberg.

Pittsburgh win				Detroit win
Mike Walsh	155	Fleury		Ryan Slack	151	Fleury, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk
Samuel Wexler	143	Gonchar		Jerome Brouard	150	Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk
Li Tan	142	Fleury, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk		Mike Walsh	155 (-10)	Fleury
Karen Savoie	141	Fleury, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk		Peter Holland	139	Fleury, Hossa, Zetterberg, Datsyuk
Ryan Slack	151 (-10)	Fleury, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Datsyuk		John Upper	139	Fleury, Hossa, Rafalski, Datsyuk
				Martha Gill	149 (-10)	Gonchar
				Scott Hamilton	138	Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Rafalski
				David Minuk	138	Osgood, Kronwall, Datsyuk
				Adam Bloedow	148 (-10)	Zetterberg, Datsyuk

Leaving the arena before the game was done...
Many people in the Trash Talk Forum - and yours truly in various reports and analysis - anointed Martha Gill the winner with her darkhorse Carolina and Chicago picks. Judging from the state of the forum it seems that these people all left the building before the end of the game, and aren't even aware that the score had changed. Well, with both Conference Finals series running short and the losing teams underperforming, Martha received nothing but a lot of press. Good job, and better luck next year.



Mitch's prediction
My prediction record now stands at 10-4 this year, and if only my own picks had matched that success I would be doing much better! Well I've had an awful record predicting the finals, having selected losers Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary the past four seasons. So this year since I'm hoping for the Penguins to win, I'll say Detroit in seven. Especially after that ill-advised move to pick up the Prince of Wales trophy. Let's hope I'm wrong yet again.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Marco Pazzano	61 (151,90)		David Lester	33
Cheryl Wallace	54 (144,90)		John Upper	31
Mark Fahey	48 (90,42)		Mark Fahey	31
David Lester	46 (77,31)		Mike De Petrillo	31
Mike De Petrillo	43 (77,31)		Peter Holland, Marilyn Beaulieu	30
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
Wayne Wood	50 (17,67)		16 People with:	0
Aron Slipacoff	40 (31,71)
Jen Reilly	38 (17,55)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Sidney Crosby PIT 28 65 Evgeni Malkin PIT 28 70 Alexander Ovechkin WAS 21 122 Johan Franzen DET 19 10 Ryan Getzlaf ANA 18 6 Henrik Zetterberg DET 18 69 Martin Havlat CHI 15 9 Eric Staal CAR 15 22 Nicklas Backstrom WAS 15 38	Defense Team Pts Picks Niklas Lidstrom DET 13 77 Brent Seabrook CHI 12 0 Sergei Gonchar PIT 12 16         Goalies Team Pts Picks Chris Osgood DET 18 7 Cam Ward CAR 18 7 Jonas Hiller ANA 17 0 Simeon Varlamov WAS 17 0
Teams
IN Picks Cups Detroit 323 34 Pittsburgh 176 18	OUT Picks Cups Carolina 40 4 Chicago 36 3

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd4 Projection
26	6	2	1	Ryan Slack	151	6	DET	186
33	3	3	2	Jerome Brouard	150	5	DET	181
6	1	1	3	Mike Walsh	155	3	PIT	177
14	3	5	3	Adam Bloedow	148	4	BOS	177
33	14	8	3	Li Tan	142	6	PIT	177
41	16	9	6	Karen Savoie	141	6	PIT	176
49	28	10	7	Peter Holland	139	6	DET	174
12	35	18	8	Jay Dart	135	6	DET	172
3	7	4	9	Martha Gill	149	3	CAR	171
26	31	10	10	John Upper	139	6	DET	170
86	34	18	10	Al Champsi	135	6	DET	170
33	20	12	12	Scott Hamilton	138	5	DET	169
7	14	12	13	David Minuk	138	5	DET	167
41	26	22	14	Dwight Butler	133	5	BOS	166
1	5	7	15	Samuel Wexler	143	3	PIT	165
49	60	25	15	Mike Melanson	130	6	PIT	165
21	20	16	17	Candace Unterschute	136	5	VAN	164
1	2	6	18	Judy Wood	145	2	VAN	163
12	11	12	18	Georgina Hubbard	138	4	SJS	163
33	26	21	18	Greg Yaroff	134	5	DET	163
9	41	22	21	Alex Walsh	133	5	CAR	161
49	77	36	21	Mike De Petrillo	124	6	PIT	161
9	12	18	23	Rohit Chandra	135	4	PIT	160
41	8	15	24	Kyle Hogg	137	4	WSH	159
63	77	30	25	David Lester	127	6	PIT	158
95	90	44	25	Mark Fahey	121	6	PIT	158
86	83	44	25	Vincent Galante	121	6	SJS	158
49	35	30	28	Patrick Bouchard	127	4	SJS	156
86	54	34	28	Brenden Kennedy	125	5	SJS	156
123	90	44	28	Marilyn Beaulieu	121	6	PIT	156
41	41	27	31	Jo-Ann Fahey	128	4	PIT	155
4	8	16	32	Dennis Clayton	136	2	VAN	154
112	83	44	32	Steve Sealy	121	6	PIT	154
7	20	26	34	Aaron Allard	129	3	VAN	151
33	41	32	34	Cassandra Jackaman	126	4	DET	151
112	90	63	34	Kristie Baran	116	6	SJS	151
112	90	63	34	Georgia Strachan	116	6	DET	151
14	35	34	38	Richard Doane	125	4	SJS	150
14	12	24	39	Peter Sadlier-Brown	131	2	BOS	149
26	35	32	39	David Hood	126	3	PIT	149
86	24	27	39	Harris Beder	128	4	BOS	149
63	60	42	39	Rob Phillips	122	4	SJS	149
112	67	52	43	Fraser Macdonald	120	5	DET	147
33	48	36	44	George Crothers	124	3	SJS	146
21	52	36	44	Sean Smith	124	3	CAR	146
21	35	39	44	Samara McAdam	123	3	SJS	146
26	28	39	47	Paul Synnott	123	4	BOS	145
63	54	44	48	Michael Clowater	121	3	PIT	143
21	48	44	48	Sharon Boitson	121	3	CGY	143
26	74	52	50	Keith Chappell	120	3	PIT	142
4	31	39	51	Mouli Ramani	123	2	WSH	141
14	48	44	51	Brent Morris	121	4	DET	141
33	54	54	53	Shane Kozlowich	119	3	SJS	140
14	54	57	53	Michael Patton	118	4	DET	140
41	54	57	55	Patrick Provost	118	3	SJS	138
76	17	42	56	George Smith	122	3	BOS	136
14	10	27	57	Julian Vardy	128	1	ANA	134
166	144	89	57	Cheryl Wallace	103	5	PIT	134
49	41	44	59	Andy Hotson	121	3	CAR	133
63	54	54	60	Lee Beech	119	3	BOS	132
86	28	57	60	Barrett Boitson	118	3	BOS	132
123	151	89	60	Marco Pazzano	103	5	PIT	132
63	20	54	63	Bryan Wood	119	3	BOS	131
49	48	66	63	Einar Gainforth-Beech	115	3	DET	131
41	83	71	63	Jeff Drisdelle	110	3	SJS	131
86	24	57	66	Steven Hawley	118	3	BOS	130
95	35	57	66	David Loop	118	3	CHI	130
86	98	79	66	Ron Wener	107	3	SJS	130
76	102	83	69	Patrick Gill	106	3	PIT	128
76	102	83	69	Brendan Browne	106	3	SJS	128
63	41	63	71	Michael MacDonald	116	2	CHI	127
63	77	72	71	Duncan Campbell	109	2	SJS	127
9	67	69	73	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	111	2	SJS	124
63	41	67	74	Roger Brouard	113	3	BOS	123
112	60	69	74	Gabe Pretto	111	3	DET	123
95	67	72	76	Jeff Hammond	109	3	DET	121
49	72	79	77	Barry Potter	107	2	VAN	120
112	60	76	77	Isa Boucher	108	3	BOS	120
49	71	76	79	Becke Gainforth	108	3	WSH	119
112	65	79	79	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	107	3	BOS	119
133	107	92	79	Grace DeSantis-Peragine	102	3	SJS	119
26	17	57	82	Jen Reilly	118	0	BOS	118
49	52	72	83	AJ Stais	109	2	VAN	117
76	90	86	83	Ford Hatchett	104	2	BOS	117
143	159	120	83	Edwin NewmanJones	92	4	SJS	117
95	74	79	86	Dan Salerno	107	3	BOS	116
63	77	86	87	Mary Sue Strickland	104	2	SJS	115
86	77	92	87	Lee McLeod	102	2	SJS	115
63	67	86	89	Puya Vakili-Zad	104	2	BOS	114
76	77	92	89	April De Mello	102	2	SJS	114
49	122	101	89	Nina Lozano	97	4	DET	114
14	31	72	92	Aron Slipacoff	109	1	VAN	113
86	65	85	92	Daniel Wiseman	105	2	SJS	113
95	98	96	92	Mitch Hatchett	100	2	BOS	113
21	17	68	95	Wayne Wood	112	0	ANA	112
76	72	89	95	Domenic Vendittelli	103	1	BOS	112
41	83	95	95	Rhonda Morris	101	2	SJS	112
155	127	105	95	Jordana Wexler	95	3	SJS	112
170	87	98	99	Ted Kennedy	99	3	WSH	111
95	127	101	99	Chris Kelley	97	3	DET	111
155	90	99	101	Nicholas Gafuik	98	3	DET	110
123	98	101	102	Ashleigh Harrington	97	3	SJS	109
49	41	76	103	Chad McVean	108	0	BOS	108
112	116	110	103	Todd Beaman	94	3	DET	108
112	116	99	105	David Van Kula	98	3	DET	107
155	127	105	105	Steven Kjellberg	95	3	DET	107
76	127	110	107	Gabriel Strachan	94	3	DET	106
123	87	101	108	Deric Chow	97	2	WSH	105
143	112	116	108	Laura Wood	93	3	SJS	105
143	112	116	108	Renee Loubert	93	3	SJS	105
143	122	123	108	Roger Savoie	91	3	BOS	105
143	112	110	112	Adam Jamieson	94	3	BOS	104
133	116	120	112	Jeff Williams	92	3	SJS	104
123	134	120	112	Mike Newbauer	92	3	DET	104
95	98	105	115	Jean-Yves Bouchard	95	2	SJS	103
95	116	116	116	Hank Shannon	93	1	VAN	102
123	102	110	116	Kevin Hoey	94	2	SJS	102
95	102	110	116	Brian Labonte	94	2	SJS	102
170	141	126	116	Jonas Struthers	90	3	BOS	102
26	60	96	120	Sean Sargent	100	0	VAN	100
112	90	110	120	Richard Gretzinger	94	1	VAN	100
95	144	130	120	Jean-Pierre Reilly	88	3	DET	100
155	144	130	123	Terry Hoey	88	3	SJS	99
133	144	130	123	Mitch Wexler	88	3	DET	99
155	138	136	123	Shadd Dales	87	3	SJS	99
133	116	126	126	Stuart Klein	90	2	SJS	98
49	102	116	127	Paul Baran	93	1	VAN	97
95	107	123	127	Ryan Chirnomas	91	2	DET	97
63	122	129	127	Lindsay Adams	89	2	SJS	97
123	138	130	127	Joy Smith	88	3	SJS	97
143	154	141	127	Red Macaw	86	3	BOS	97
166	151	146	132	Scott Strachan	84	3	SJS	96
33	90	105	133	Judah Gould	95	0	SJS	95
49	74	105	133	Richard Rikkonen	95	0	VAN	95
133	151	136	133	Mike van Steendelaar	87	2	BOS	95
133	137	136	133	Jim Dart	87	2	SJS	95
123	134	130	137	Ian Winsor	88	2	SJS	94
133	122	136	138	Elliott Silverstein	87	2	BOS	93
174	138	144	138	Joel Pollock	85	2	SJS	93
95	110	126	140	Alvin Gainforth	90	1	BOS	92
76	87	123	141	Sam Fielding	91	0	BOS	91
176	167	157	141	Alan Eng	79	3	SJS	91
143	167	157	141	Brendan Hoey	79	3	DET	91
155	116	141	144	Abraham McAllister	86	1	BOS	90
166	127	130	145	Della Santin	88	0	BOS	88
155	141	149	145	Paul Markowski	82	1	BOS	88
155	141	149	145	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	82	2	SJS	88
155	156	156	145	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	80	2	SJS	88
95	107	136	149	Colin Kennedy	87	0	VAN	87
41	134	147	149	George Roman	83	1	PHI	87
123	144	153	149	Brad Hotson	81	2	WSH	87
155	144	153	149	Bo Chen	81	2	SJS	87
76	110	141	153	Andrew Hamilton	86	0	VAN	86
95	112	144	154	Tracy Smith	85	0	SJS	85
63	156	159	155	Norrin Ripsman	78	2	NJD	84
95	122	147	156	Aaron Pretto	83	0	WSH	83
143	144	153	156	James McAndrew	81	1	VAN	83
95	127	149	158	Russell Reed	82	0	SJS	82
63	127	149	158	John Crossingham	82	0	SJS	82
170	161	163	160	Matthew Stiles	74	2	SJS	80
143	171	171	161	Ryan Spencer	67	3	NJD	79
143	171	171	161	Sophie Wexler	67	3	NJD	79
133	167	164	163	Jason Roy	72	2	DET	78
133	156	160	164	Tim Smith	77	0	CHI	77
166	159	161	164	Craig Endicott	75	1	SJS	77
181	178	173	164	Patrick Mitchell	65	3	SJS	77
133	161	164	167	Ian Burrows	72	1	BOS	76
170	154	161	168	Stephen Kennedy	75	0	BOS	75
123	161	164	169	Vicki Lewis	72	1	PHI	74
155	161	164	169	Gaston Bouchard	72	1	SJS	74
49	165	164	171	Stephen Craig	72	0	NJD	72
178	173	173	172	Nam Nguyen	65	1	CGY	71
174	176	175	172	Chris Smith	64	3	BOS	71
143	180	177	172	Richard Ciano	61	3	DET	71
180	181	178	172	Andrew Ryan	59	3	DET	71
76	165	169	176	Kevin Hinch	69	0	WSH	69
181	182	180	176	Don Fudge	57	4	DET	69
112	167	170	178	Shawn Robichaud	68	0	SJS	68
143	178	175	179	Bill Hammond	64	1	SJS	66
178	174	178	180	Jerry Rynda	59	1	SJS	61
95	175	181	181	Blake Wood	56	0	VAN	56
176	176	182	182	Carol Hatchett	55	0	BOS	55
181	184	183	183	Emma and Andrew Fielding	44	2	PHI	50
184	183	184	184	Dan Sullivan	41	0	BOS	41
185	185	185	185	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	30	0	CGY	30