Lord Stanley's Pool 2009 - Round 2 Analysis

Round two's offensive burst - in all four lengthy series but particularly Pittsburgh-Washington - provided a boost to numerous entries and has allowed this year's pool to smash previous second-round records. Mike Walsh collected 78 points in the round - a significant jump over the previous round two record of 56 set in 2001 - and also the record for any round (63 - Rd.1 2001). Mike's total score thus far also sets a record - widely trouncing the previous round two total of 107, also set in 2001. In total, 30 people bested both records.

This is no guarantee that the pool's high score will be broken, however. In 2001 most in the pool predicted a Colorado victory over New Jersey (giving Ray Bourque his Cup) while this season, many picks were lost after round two. Only Martha Gill and Andy Hotson are left with all nine picks still active.

Can Marc-Andre Fleury turn up his play and be the king-maker?

Can Marc-Andre Fleury turn up his play and be the pool's king-maker?

It's mostly Detroit and Pittsburgh from here
Last year at this point, most of the pool had both Detroit and Pittsburgh picks remaining, essentially nullifying the effect of the most important players. This year, we again have mostly Detroit and Pittsburgh remaining, however they were picked in smaller numbers and as a result, will indeed have an impact - particularly by those with Penguins on their entry.

Pavel Datsyuk is the only forward remaining who was on more than half of the entries - 105 - although he has only 5 points in these playoffs. Other forwards Evgeni Malkin (70), Henrik Zetterberg (69), and Sidney Crosby (65) are performing much better. These were the four most popular players last year. It will be up to Marian Hossa (35), Johan Franzen (10), and a handful of 'Canes and 'Hawks - led by Eric Staal (22) and Martin Havlat (9) to make the difference for their owners.

On defense, Nicklas Lidstrom (77 picks) is the only remaining top draw. Sergei Gonchar (16) and Brian Rafalski (14) are or have been injured and the only remaining player with more than a few picks is Brian Campbell (8).

Goaltending may prove an interesting story. Marc-Andre Fleury was picked 17 times while Cam Ward and Chris Osgood have 7 picks each. Nikolai Khabibulin was picked four times.

Change is not an option - contenders are coming from below
It's been a number of years since we've seen major turnover beyond the second round of the pool, and this year we are expecting nearly wholesale change from the folks who were competitive through round two (although you can argue that Martha Gill has been hovering near that group). Leader Mike Walsh, along with Judy Wood and Samuel Wexler - who were alternating the lead for most of the pool thus far - have all lost six or seven picks and are likely to drop right out of the top five, if not the top ten.

Martha Gill has a full slate of players and no nearby competitors with more than six picks, and she is projected to jump out to a significant lead after round three. Her ultimate success would be more assured if Carolina defeats Pittsburgh or of Chicago upsets Detroit. She is guaranteed to have at least three players in the last round.

Andy Hotson starts round three 17 points behind Martha but also has nine players - just the opposite of Martha with three from Detroit rather than Pittsburgh. A Detroit-Carolina final could help him close the gap and complete a surprising come-from-behind win.

Jerome Brouard and Ryan Slack are positioned well to challenge for the money with their Detroit and Pittsburgh picks - particularly if Detroit wins the Cup. Ryan starts three points behind Jerome but has Marc-Andre Fleury extra. Li Tan (significant other of last year's winner Bo Chen) and Karen Savoie (who challenged Bo to the finish) also have six from Detroit and Pittsburgh including Fleury, and picked the Penguins to win - with the 10 point bonus trumping their nine-point deficit.

And finally Jay Dart and Alex Walsh come from as far back as Andy but also have seven or eight players - they could challenge depending on the combination of players scoring.

Wonder Goalies reportedly playing wonderful golf
Round one saw the unexpected emergence of two young goalies as the stars of their respective teams. But in round two, Jonas Hiller of Anaheim and Simeon Varlamov of Washington took back seats to their team's efforts and although they made it to game seven, were both eliminated. We are left with the tried-and-true goalies - in fact there are few players at any position that are surprising enough to be considered dark-horse picks.

Mitch's predictions
I did pretty well in round two by calling three of the four series, bring my total this year to 8-4. For round three I'll add my voice to the chorus of people predicting a rematch in the Cup finals - Pittsburgh and Detroit.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Ted Kennedy	83 (170,87)	Mike Walsh	78
Nicholas Gafuik	65 (155,90)	Jerome Brouard	77
Haris Beder	62 (86,24)	Adam Bloedow	74
Steven Hawley	62 (86,24)	Ryan Slack	73
David Loop	60 (95,35)	Kyle Hogg	72
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Stephen Craig	116 (49,165)	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	3
Norrin Ripsman	93 (63,156)	Emma Fielding	8
George Roman	93 (41,134)	Richard Ciano	13
Kevin Hinch	89 (76,165)	Dan Sullivan	13
Blake Wood	80 (95,175)	Blake Wood	13
Renee Loubert	87 (19,106)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Sidney Crosby PIT 21 65

Alexander Ovechkin WAS 21 122

Evgeni Malkin PIT 19 70

Ryan Getzlaf ANA 18 6

John Franzen DET 15 10

Nicklas Backstrom WAS 15 38

Henrik Zetterberg DET 14 69

Corey Perry ANA 14 2

Alexander Semin WAS 41 2

Defense Team Pts Picks

Nicklas Lidstrom DET 11 77

Sergei Gonchar PIT 10 16

Chris Pronger ANA 10 1

Scott Niedermayer ANA 10 3

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Cam Ward CAR 18 7

Jonas Hiller ANA 17 0

Simeon Varlamov WAS 17 0

Chris Osgood DET 14 7

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Detroit 323 34

Pittsburgh 176 18

Carolina 40 4

Chicago 36 3

OUT Picks Cups

Washington 300 8

Boston 254 36

Vancouver 91 16

Anaheim 14 2

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2, so Chris Osgood would get half a shutout, half an assist, and four wins.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

3 7 1 Martha Gill 121 9 CAR 181
26 6 2 Ryan Slack 123 6 DET 162
33 3 3 Jerome Brouard 126 5 DET 161
6 1 4 Mike Walsh 135 3 PIT 159
14 3 5 Adam Bloedow 126 4 BOS 158
49 41 6 Andy Hotson 104 9 CAR 156
33 14 7 Li Tan 114 6 PIT 153
12 35 7 Jay Dart 105 7 DET 153
9 41 7 Alex Walsh 104 8 CAR 153
41 16 10 Karen Savoie 113 6 PIT 152
1 5 11 Samuel Wexler 125 3 PIT 150
1 2 12 Judy Wood 129 2 VAN 149
7 14 13 David Minuk 114 5 DET 146
41 26 13 Dwight Butler 109 5 BOS 146
12 11 15 Georgina Hubbard 118 4 SJS 145
33 20 15 Scott Hamilton 111 5 DET 145
49 28 15 Peter Holland 108 6 DET 145
49 60 15 Mike Melanson 100 7 PIT 145
41 8 19 Kyle Hogg 120 4 WSH 144
86 34 19 Al Champsi 106 6 DET 144
9 12 21 Rohit Chandra 115 4 PIT 143
14 10 22 Julian Vardy 119 4 ANA 142
4 8 23 Dennis Clayton 120 2 VAN 140
21 20 23 Candace Unterschute 111 5 VAN 140
33 26 23 Greg Yaroff 109 5 DET 140
41 41 23 Jo-Ann Fahey 104 5 PIT 140
33 41 27 Cassandra Jackaman 104 5 DET 138
26 31 27 John Upper 107 6 DET 138
21 52 27 Sean Smith 102 6 CAR 138
49 35 30 Patrick Bouchard 105 4 SJS 137
7 20 31 Aaron Allard 111 3 VAN 136
86 54 31 Brenden Kennedy 101 5 SJS 136
26 74 31 Keith Chappell 95 6 PIT 136
14 12 34 Peter Sadlier-Brown 115 2 BOS 135
95 35 34 David Loop 105 6 CHI 135
86 24 36 Harris Beder 110 4 BOS 133
26 28 36 Paul Synnott 108 4 BOS 133
14 35 36 Richard Doane 105 4 SJS 133
63 54 36 Lee Beech 101 6 BOS 133
49 77 36 Mike De Petrillo 93 6 PIT 133
86 83 36 Vincent Galante 92 6 SJS 133
63 41 42 Michael MacDonald 104 5 CHI 132
63 77 43 David Lester 93 7 PIT 131
21 35 44 Samara McAdam 105 3 SJS 130
95 90 44 Mark Fahey 90 6 PIT 130
112 90 44 Kristie Baran 90 6 SJS 130
112 90 44 Georgia Strachan 90 6 DET 130
76 17 48 George Smith 112 3 BOS 129
26 35 48 David Hood 105 3 PIT 129
49 48 48 Einar Gainforth-Beech 103 4 DET 129
63 60 48 Rob Phillips 100 4 SJS 129
26 17 52 Jen Reilly 112 3 BOS 128
21 48 52 Sharon Boitson 103 3 CGY 128
112 67 52 Fraser Macdonald 98 5 DET 128
4 31 55 Mouli Ramani 107 2 WSH 127
112 83 55 Steve Sealy 92 6 PIT 127
123 90 55 Marilyn Beaulieu 90 6 PIT 127
63 20 58 Bryan Wood 111 3 BOS 126
33 48 58 George Crothers 103 3 SJS 126
86 24 60 Steven Hawley 110 3 BOS 125
86 28 60 Barrett Boitson 108 3 BOS 125
63 54 60 Michael Clowater 101 3 PIT 125
14 54 60 Michael Patton 101 4 DET 125
14 48 64 Brent Morris 103 4 DET 124
41 54 65 Patrick Provost 101 3 SJS 123
33 54 65 Shane Kozlowich 101 3 SJS 123
9 67 67 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 98 3 SJS 119
76 127 68 Gabriel Strachan 82 6 DET 117
49 41 69 Chad McVean 104 2 BOS 116
63 41 70 Roger Brouard 104 3 BOS 115
112 60 70 Isa Boucher 100 3 BOS 115
112 65 72 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 99 3 BOS 114
41 83 72 Jeff Drisdelle 92 3 SJS 114
86 98 72 Ron Wener 89 3 SJS 114
63 77 75 Duncan Campbell 93 2 SJS 113
112 60 75 Gabe Pretto 100 3 DET 113
76 102 75 Patrick Gill 88 3 PIT 113
76 102 75 Brendan Browne 88 3 SJS 113
21 17 79 Wayne Wood 112 0 ANA 112
14 31 79 Aron Slipacoff 107 1 VAN 112
49 52 81 AJ Stais 102 2 VAN 111
95 67 81 Jeff Hammond 98 3 DET 111
63 67 83 Puya Vakili-Zad 98 2 BOS 110
49 72 83 Barry Potter 96 2 VAN 110
155 127 83 Steven Kjellberg 82 5 DET 110
166 144 83 Cheryl Wallace 77 5 PIT 110
95 127 83 Chris Kelley 82 6 DET 110
86 77 88 Lee McLeod 93 2 SJS 109
86 65 89 Daniel Wiseman 99 2 SJS 108
49 71 89 Becke Gainforth 97 3 WSH 108
76 77 91 April De Mello 93 2 SJS 107
76 72 92 Domenic Vendittelli 96 1 BOS 106
170 87 92 Ted Kennedy 91 3 WSH 106
33 90 92 Judah Gould 90 3 SJS 106
133 107 92 Grace DeSantis-Peragine 87 3 SJS 106
123 151 92 Marco Pazzano 76 5 PIT 106
63 77 97 Mary Sue Strickland 93 2 SJS 105
41 83 97 Rhonda Morris 92 2 SJS 105
155 90 97 Nicholas Gafuik 90 3 DET 105
95 98 100 Mitch Hatchett 89 2 BOS 104
123 98 100 Ashleigh Harrington 89 3 SJS 104
76 90 102 Ford Hatchett 90 2 BOS 103
95 74 103 Dan Salerno 95 3 BOS 102
155 127 103 Jordana Wexler 82 3 SJS 102
49 122 103 Nina Lozano 83 4 DET 102
143 159 106 Edwin NewmanJones 73 4 SJS 101
133 151 106 Mike van Steendelaar 76 5 BOS 101
26 60 108 Sean Sargent 100 0 VAN 100
123 87 108 Deric Chow 91 2 WSH 100
143 112 108 Laura Wood 85 3 SJS 100
143 112 108 Renee Loubert 85 3 SJS 100
112 116 108 Todd Beaman 84 3 DET 100
143 122 108 Roger Savoie 83 3 BOS 100
95 98 114 Jean-Yves Bouchard 89 2 SJS 99
133 116 114 Jeff Williams 84 3 SJS 99
112 116 116 David Van Kula 84 4 DET 98
112 90 117 Richard Gretzinger 90 1 VAN 97
95 102 117 Brian Labonte 88 2 SJS 97
123 102 117 Kevin Hoey 88 2 SJS 97
166 127 117 Della Santin 82 3 BOS 97
143 112 121 Adam Jamieson 85 3 BOS 96
49 74 122 Richard Rikkonen 95 0 VAN 95
95 107 122 Ryan Chirnomas 87 2 DET 95
95 110 122 Alvin Gainforth 86 2 BOS 95
170 141 122 Jonas Struthers 78 4 BOS 95
123 134 126 Mike Newbauer 81 3 DET 94
155 138 126 Shadd Dales 79 3 SJS 94
143 154 126 Red Macaw 75 4 BOS 94
95 116 129 Hank Shannon 84 1 VAN 93
133 116 129 Stuart Klein 84 2 SJS 93
63 122 131 Lindsay Adams 83 2 SJS 92
76 87 132 Sam Fielding 91 0 BOS 91
49 102 132 Paul Baran 88 1 VAN 91
133 122 132 Elliott Silverstein 83 2 BOS 91
166 151 132 Scott Strachan 76 3 SJS 91
95 144 136 Jean-Pierre Reilly 77 3 DET 90
155 116 137 Abraham McAllister 84 1 BOS 89
133 137 137 Jim Dart 80 2 SJS 89
133 156 137 Tim Smith 74 3 CHI 89
174 138 140 Joel Pollock 79 2 SJS 88
123 138 140 Joy Smith 79 3 SJS 88
133 144 140 Mitch Wexler 77 3 DET 88
155 144 140 Terry Hoey 77 3 SJS 88
95 107 144 Colin Kennedy 87 0 VAN 87
123 134 144 Ian Winsor 81 2 SJS 87
76 110 146 Andrew Hamilton 86 0 VAN 86
41 134 146 George Roman 81 1 PHI 86
155 141 146 Pierre Gainforth-Beech 78 2 SJS 86
143 144 146 James McAndrew 77 2 VAN 86
95 112 150 Tracy Smith 85 0 SJS 85
155 141 150 Paul Markowski 78 1 BOS 85
123 144 150 Brad Hotson 77 2 WSH 85
155 144 150 Bo Chen 77 2 SJS 85
95 122 154 Aaron Pretto 83 0 WSH 83
155 156 154 Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff 74 2 SJS 83
95 127 156 Russell Reed 82 0 SJS 82
63 127 156 John Crossingham 82 0 SJS 82
63 156 156 Norrin Ripsman 74 2 NJD 82
176 167 159 Alan Eng 68 3 SJS 81
143 167 159 Brendan Hoey 68 3 DET 81
170 161 161 Matthew Stiles 70 2 SJS 78
133 167 162 Jason Roy 68 2 DET 76
170 154 163 Stephen Kennedy 75 0 BOS 75
166 159 163 Craig Endicott 73 1 SJS 75
133 161 163 Ian Burrows 70 1 BOS 75
49 165 166 Stephen Craig 69 1 NJD 74
143 171 166 Ryan Spencer 59 3 NJD 74
143 171 166 Sophie Wexler 59 3 NJD 74
155 161 169 Gaston Bouchard 70 1 SJS 72
123 161 169 Vicki Lewis 70 1 PHI 72
178 173 171 Nam Nguyen 58 2 CGY 70
76 165 172 Kevin Hinch 69 0 WSH 69
112 167 173 Shawn Robichaud 68 0 SJS 68
181 178 174 Patrick Mitchell 54 3 SJS 67
143 178 174 Bill Hammond 54 3 SJS 67
180 181 176 Andrew Ryan 51 3 DET 66
181 182 177 Don Fudge 50 4 DET 64
143 180 178 Richard Ciano 52 3 DET 63
174 176 179 Chris Smith 55 3 BOS 61
178 174 180 Jerry Rynda 57 1 SJS 59
176 176 181 Carol Hatchett 55 1 BOS 57
95 175 182 Blake Wood 56 0 VAN 56
181 184 183 Emma and Andrew Fielding 37 2 PHI 43
184 183 184 Dan Sullivan 41 0 BOS 41
185 185 185 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 28 1 CGY 34