Round 1 Analysis
A record high in pool scoring and a surprisingly low attrition rate was going to be the story of the first round... until at the last moment the titan fell. Washington's elimination was so massive, a quarter of the pool's picks were unexpectedly knocked out early. New Jersey's 142 was the only other reasonably large group to fall. So what would have been a record low 13.6% player dropout turned into a significant drop of 38.6%. The ratio of Cup picks eliminated would have been the lowest since 2001. The turn of events will for obvious reasons affect how the pool plays out and places particular importance on the Round 2 Western matchups.

Washington's loss in perspective
To put Washington's loss in perspective, only three teams in the history of Lord Stanley's Pool had their players picked more than Washington's 25% (of a possible 33.3%). Detroit had 25.6% of picks in 2002 and won the championship; Colorado had 30% and New Jersey 27% in 2001 when the Avs beat the Devils in the finals. Here is a chart of the worst first-round upsets in pool history, in terms of player picks and Cup picks. Poolies living in Washington, DC may print this out and post it on the fridge.

Player Picks	Cup Picks
Year Tot.Picks Team Lost Percentage 2010 1773 Washington 444 25.04 2003 603 Detroit 133 22.06 2003 603 Colorado 131 21.72 2006 936 Detroit 194 20.73 2009 1665 San Jose 302 18.14	Year Entries Team Lost Percentage 2010 197 Washington 61 30.96 2009 185 San Jose 55 29.73 2006 104 Detroit 27 25.96 2003 67 Detroit 17 25.37 2003 67 Colorado 16 23.88

Worst first-round upsets in pool history

Antti Niemi leads the pool after posting two shutouts.

The harder they fall
While we're doling out the nebulous honours, Alex Ovechkin now has the distinction of being the highest-ranked player eliminated in the first round. Ovie's 157 picks (easily a record) was picked by 79.7% of all poolies, edging out Peter Forsberg's 79.1% (53 of 69) in 2003. Only Joe Sakic in 2001 was picked by a greater percentage of all Lord Stanley's Pool entries - 38 of 40, 95% - but he won the championship. Mike Green is second all-time among defensemen falling in the first round, with 65% (128/197) trailing only Nicklas Lidstrom's famous flameout of 2006, eliminated from 69% of entries (72/104) with only two points.

First round glory is soon an old story
Some people are content with being on top at the conclusion of a round - for posterity sake they'll have a "1" under Round 1 Rank. But history has shown that more often than not, first-round leaders will quickly be old news as they slide down the standings.

For now it's Dennis Clayton and Jay Dart tied for first, smashing a first round points record with 78, and a three point lead over third. David Lester and Adam Jamieson are tied for third with 75. But all of these people have lost players, giving the advantage to a new group of poolies who are thus far unscathed. Flo Handfield, Ryan Thompson and Sean Hammond have nine players each while Mike Melanson and Li Tan are within striking distance with eight players.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Upsets in East lead to unexpected pairings
The upsets of the three Eastern division champs - #1 Washington, #2 New Jersey, and #3 Buffalo - have resulted in an improbable 6 vs 7 matchup where either Boston or Philadelphia will advance to the conference finals. But perhaps the biggest impact is the clear path for Pittsburgh straight to the Cup final. We should never say never, especially after the first round upsets, but somehow Montreal, Boston and Philly do not seem as daunting as the Caps, Devis, and Sabres. Unfortunately we will not see the matchup everyone in the hockey world wanted to see, a Pens-Caps conference final. With the way Sidney Crosby is playing, it is doubtful anyone can stop the march of the Penguins.

Focus shifts West
The drama's gone in the East, with Pittsburgh's 266 picks versus 7 total for the other three teams. As a result the intriguing matchups for the pool will be in the West. Chicago's 283 against Vancouver's 158 will likely impact the result of the pool more than any other series this year. Many of the current contenders have either of these teams along with Detroit and the Pens, and this series will determine who is likely in for some money. San Jose's 199 against Detroit's 175 will either uplift the current contenders (if the Wings win) or give the Sharks bettors a chance to come from behind. Despite San Jose having 199 picks, most are on entries already suffering from the loss of Washington or other teams.

Top goalie, biggest bust... of all time?
We seem to talk about Martin Brodeur every pool, whether it's being in the running for (and sometimes "winning") the biggest bust award or being the scapegoat for a Canadian loss. It is a testament to his Hall of Fame credentials that people continue to rely on him in great numbers. But while 48 people picked Brodeur this pool - the most of any goalie - he was only able to post a single win. This makes him without question the Biggest Bust for 2010, his third time getting the honour.

Brodeur's 1-for-48 is arguably the worst in the history of the pool. Putting aside players with no points (both Curtis Joseph and Alexei Yashin in 1999 had no points but only 11 picks) Brodeur has the worst points-to-picks ratio ever, edging out Mike Green this year (3 pts, 128 picks) and the aforementioned Nicklas Lidstrom in 2006 (2 pts, 72 picks). Lidstrom also has a case for worst ever considering his 72 picks were out of a pool of 104.

Biggest busts over the years: 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Joy to the darkhorse
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year Joy Smith picked two of them. Michael Cammalleri has 10 points and Tomas Plekanec seven, and both were picked only by Joy, this year's winner of the Hindsight Award. The other notable darkhorse after one round is Joe Pavelski with 8 points for Richard Gretzinger and leading the Sharks.

Top unpicked players are Mikael Samuelsson of Vancouver, tie for second in the scoring race with 11 points (and first in goals with seven), Brian Boucher in net for Philly (9 pts), and Ryane Clowe (SJ) and Mike Richards (Phi) with 8. Matt Cullen also had 8 points for now-eliminated Ottawa.

Hollywood defence
While the famed defensemen were scoring on themselves or just plain sucking, Los Angeles' pair of Drew Doughty (2 picks) and Jack Johnson shared their team lead with 7 points and led all defensemen. Ottawa's Erik Karlsson (3 picks) had six, giving him something to talk about with his LA counterparts on the golf course.

Nabby's year?
The best goaltending performance thus far has come from Antti Niemi of Chicago, with two shutouts and 14 points, with only seven people picking him due to the season-long tandem in the 'Hawks net. But with the Sharks surviving to round 2 and Evgeni Nabokov collecting a shutout and nine points, could this be his magical year? He was the most popular goalie in 2008 and 2009 but was knocked out early both times (and was the biggest bust last year). This year with fewer picks and perhaps lower expectations, he is off to a good start and the team has rallied in response to Dan Boyle's own-goal.

Light a fire under these guys
Duncan Keith (92 picks) was in biggest bust territory until finally breaking the seal in game six. Still in the playoffs, Keith has a chance to redeem himself and his Norris trophy nomination with a strong second round performance. Meanwhile Sharks stars Dany Heatley (54 picks, 4 pts), Joe Thornton (43 picks, 3 pts), and injured Patrick Marleau (31 picks, 3 pts) need to start pulling their weight.

Round 2 predictions
In round 1 I was 4-for-4 in the west but only got Pittsburgh right in the east for a score of 5/8. The second round will be harder with only one "easy" one. My round 2 predictions: Pittsburgh in a walk; Boston over injury-depleted Philly; Detroit with the "upset" over SJ; and Vancouver gets their revenge on Chicago.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Ovechkin, WAS, 157 picks; Green, WAS, 128; Backstrom, WAS, 115; Parise, NJ, 49; Brodeur, NJ, 48; Semin, WAS, 33; Kovalchuk, NJ, 32; Miller, BUF, 24.

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Sidney Crosby PIT 14 118 Mikael Samuelsson VAN 11 0 Henrik Zetterberg DET 11 48 Michael Cammalleri MON 10 1 Daniel Sedin VAN 10 47 Alex Ovechkin WAS 10 157 Nicklas Backstrom WAS 9 115 Nine players with 8	Defense Team Pts Picks Jack Johnson LOS 7 0 Drew Doughty LOS 7 2 Five players with 6         Goalies Team Pts Picks Antti Niemi CHI 14 7 Brian Boucher PHI 9 0 Jimmy Howard DET 9 14 Evgeni Nabokov SAN 9 26
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups  Chicago 283 29 Pittsburgh 266 35 San Jose 199 21 Detroit 175 9 Vancouver 158 18 Montreal 6 1 Philadelphia 1 0 Boston 0 0	OUT Picks Cups Washington 444 61 New Jersey 142 14 Buffalo 55 4 Ottawa 24 3 Phoenix 14 2 Los Angeles 5 0 Colorado 1 0 Nashville 0 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, so Antti Niemi would get another two shutouts and 14 points.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank	Proj. Rank	Name	R2 Projection	R1 Pts.	Lost	IMP	IMP%	Cup
5	1	Flo Handfield	148	74	0	0	0.0%	VAN
5	1	Ryan Thompson	148	74	0	0	0.0%	PIT
8	3	Sean Hammond	146	73	0	0	0.0%	CHI
3	4	David Lester	137	75	2	13	17.3%	DET
28	5	Janine Pileggi	136	69	1	2	2.9%	VAN
1	6	Dennis Clayton	134	78	3	22	28.2%	WSH
1	6	Jay Dart	134	78	3	22	28.2%	DET
12	6	Mike Melanson	134	72	1	10	13.9%	PIT
44	6	Aaron Allard	134	67	0	0	0.0%	PIT
38	10	Gabe Pretto	133	68	2	3	4.4%	PIT
18	11	Mike van Steendelaar	132	71	2	10	14.1%	CHI
18	11	Li Tan	132	71	1	10	14.1%	PIT
18	13	Marco Pazzano	130	71	2	12	16.9%	PIT
25	13	Dan Leggieri	130	70	1	10	14.3%	VAN
12	15	Brendan Hoey	129	72	3	15	20.8%	CHI
18	15	Sanjay Talwar	129	71	2	13	18.3%	PIT
3	17	Adam Jamieson	128	75	3	22	29.3%	CHI
8	18	Aaron Pretto	127	73	2	19	26.0%	WSH
25	18	Sarah Stewart-Browne	127	70	2	13	18.6%	VAN
5	20	Bo Chen	126	74	3	22	29.7%	WSH
72	20	Ron Wener	126	63	0	0	0.0%	PIT
12	22	Richard Ciano	125	72	3	19	26.4%	WSH
28	22	Matt Seiler	125	69	2	13	18.8%	DET
8	24	Ryan Slack	124	73	3	22	30.1%	PIT
8	24	Frank Pileggi	124	73	3	22	30.1%	WSH
28	26	Jesse Otto	123	69	3	15	21.7%	PIT
28	26	Adam Bloedow	123	69	3	15	21.7%	CHI
18	26	Steve Sealy	123	71	2	19	26.8%	VAN
67	26	Mark Roeder	123	64	2	5	7.8%	SJS
12	30	Andrew Ryan	122	72	3	22	30.6%	WSH
12	30	David Loop	122	72	3	22	30.6%	WSH
12	30	Marie-José LeBlanc	122	72	3	22	30.6%	WSH
44	33	Alusha Morris	121	67	2	13	19.4%	PIT
18	34	Ryan Courville	120	71	3	22	31.0%	WSH
18	34	Jason Roy	120	71	3	22	31.0%	VAN
25	36	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	119	70	3	21	30.0%	CHI
28	36	Danny Chirnomas	119	69	2	19	27.5%	WSH
49	36	Andrew Tompkins	119	66	2	13	19.7%	VAN
56	39	Pette Chappell	118	65	2	12	18.5%	PIT
102	39	Russell Bobbie	118	59	0	0	0.0%	CHI
28	41	Kyle Hogg	117	69	3	21	30.4%	WSH
49	41	Stefano Pileggi	117	66	3	15	22.7%	PIT
67	41	Chris McCluskey	117	64	3	11	17.2%	PIT
98	41	Lawren Smith	117	60	1	3	5.0%	PIT
28	45	Brenden Kennedy	116	69	3	22	31.9%	PIT
28	45	Rachelle Gaudet	116	69	3	22	31.9%	VAN
28	45	Patrick Fahey	116	69	3	22	31.9%	PIT
28	45	Sharon Boitson	116	69	3	22	31.9%	WSH
38	49	Al Champsi	115	68	3	21	30.9%	WSH
56	49	Andy Hotson	115	65	3	15	23.1%	PIT
67	49	Ryan McLennan	115	64	2	13	20.3%	PIT
98	49	Douglas Wilkinson	115	60	2	5	8.3%	CHI
38	53	Jeff Wener	114	68	3	22	32.4%	WSH
38	53	Duncan Campbell	114	68	3	22	32.4%	CHI
38	53	Mike De Petrillo	114	68	3	22	32.4%	WSH
117	53	Cheryl Wallace	114	57	0	0	0.0%	VAN
44	57	Todd Beaman	113	67	3	21	31.3%	SJS
72	57	Lindsay Adams	113	63	3	13	20.6%	WSH
44	59	Shane Firth	112	67	3	22	32.8%	WSH
44	60	Eric Sorenson	111	67	4	23	34.3%	WSH
49	61	Tracy Smith	110	66	3	22	33.3%	PIT
49	61	Alan Eng	110	66	3	22	33.3%	SJS
49	61	Jo-Ann Fahey	110	66	3	22	33.3%	CHI
49	61	Dwight Butler	110	66	3	22	33.3%	SJS
49	61	Nina Lozano	110	66	3	22	33.3%	WSH
130	61	Kevin Boomer	110	55	0	0	0.0%	PIT
72	67	Emma and Andrew Fielding	109	63	4	17	27.0%	PHX
38	68	Ian Winsor	108	68	4	28	41.2%	SJS
56	68	Mitch Wexler	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Brendan Browne	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Keith Chappell	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Barrett Boitson	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Brad MacDonald	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Fraser Macdonald	108	65	3	22	33.8%	WSH
56	68	Peter Hogg	108	65	3	22	33.8%	PIT
56	68	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	108	65	3	22	33.8%	SJS
56	68	Avery Spedding	108	65	3	22	33.8%	WSH
78	78	Samuel Wexler	107	62	3	17	27.4%	VAN
88	78	Ryan Chirnomas	107	61	3	15	24.6%	WSH
88	78	Frank DiGirolomo	107	61	3	15	24.6%	CHI
102	78	Brent Morris	107	59	3	11	18.6%	NJD
102	78	Jerome Brouard	107	59	3	11	18.6%	NJD
107	78	Sophie Wexler	107	58	3	9	15.5%	BUF
72	78	Karen Savoie	107	63	2	19	30.2%	PIT
98	85	Roger Brouard	106	60	4	14	23.3%	NJD
67	85	Blair Miller	106	64	3	22	34.4%	CHI
67	85	Braeden Provost	106	64	3	22	34.4%	CHI
107	85	Ruth Beder	106	58	1	10	17.2%	PIT
98	89	Colin Kennedy	105	60	3	15	25.0%	CHI
107	89	Joy Smith	105	58	3	11	19.0%	MTL
107	91	Rica French	104	58	2	12	20.7%	PIT
145	91	Chris Handfield	104	52	0	0	0.0%	PIT
78	93	Abraham McAllister	103	62	4	21	33.9%	WSH
78	93	Jonas Struthers	103	62	3	21	33.9%	WSH
78	95	Patrick Provost	102	62	3	22	35.5%	SJS
78	95	Vincent Galante	102	62	3	22	35.5%	SJS
78	95	Maxwell Brewster	102	62	3	22	35.5%	WSH
78	98	Michael Patton	101	62	4	23	37.1%	CHI
78	98	Kaylee Lim	101	62	4	23	37.1%	WSH
78	98	Mary Sue Strickland	101	62	4	23	37.1%	WSH
88	98	George Crothers	101	61	3	21	34.4%	WSH
102	98	Marilyn Beaulieu	101	59	3	17	28.8%	PIT
107	98	Shadd Dales	101	58	3	15	25.9%	CHI
72	104	Tim Smith	100	63	4	26	41.3%	WSH
72	104	Vicki Lewis	100	63	4	26	41.3%	SJS
88	104	Kevin Hoey	100	61	3	22	36.1%	SJS
88	104	Brad Moulton	100	61	3	22	36.1%	SJS
88	104	Gary Margolis	100	61	3	22	36.1%	WSH
88	104	Jamie Spilchuk	100	61	3	22	36.1%	CHI
88	110	Barry Potter	99	61	4	23	37.7%	CHI
117	110	Jason Lin	99	57	3	15	26.3%	SJS
117	110	Mark Brewster	99	57	3	15	26.3%	PIT
117	110	Georgia Strachan	99	57	3	15	26.3%	CHI
78	114	Sascha Bloedow	98	62	5	26	41.9%	PIT
125	115	Jerry Daleez	97	56	3	15	26.8%	WSH
125	115	Mike Newbauer	97	56	3	15	26.8%	NJD
102	117	Harris Beder	96	59	4	22	37.3%	WSH
107	118	Andrea De Petrillo	95	58	4	21	36.2%	CHI
117	118	Patrick Mitchell	95	57	4	19	33.3%	WSH
107	118	Bryan Wood	95	58	3	21	36.2%	WSH
138	118	Rhonda Morris	95	54	3	13	24.1%	WSH
165	118	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	95	49	2	3	6.1%	DET
88	123	George Roman	93	61	5	29	47.5%	WSH
107	123	Shane Kozlowich	93	58	4	23	39.7%	SJS
125	123	Ragulan Vathsalan	93	56	2	19	33.9%	WSH
117	126	Patrick Bouchard	92	57	3	22	38.6%	SJS
117	126	Deric Chow	92	57	3	22	38.6%	WSH
130	128	Chris Smith	91	55	3	19	34.5%	VAN
149	128	Gabriel Strachan	91	51	3	11	21.6%	CHI
154	128	Blake Wood	91	50	3	9	18.0%	NJD
142	131	Samara McAdam	90	53	4	16	30.2%	NJD
173	131	April De Mello	90	47	3	4	8.5%	PIT
88	133	Jeff Drisdelle	89	61	6	33	54.1%	WSH
107	133	Les Endes	89	58	5	27	46.6%	WSH
107	133	Shawn Robichaud	89	58	5	27	46.6%	WSH
125	133	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	89	56	4	23	41.1%	WSH
173	133	Dan Sullivan	89	47	3	5	10.6%	CHI
125	138	Ted Kennedy	87	56	4	25	44.6%	VAN
130	139	Joel Pollock	86	55	4	24	43.6%	WSH
138	139	Becke Gainforth	86	54	3	22	40.7%	SJS
154	139	Laura Wood	86	50	2	14	28.0%	SJS
130	142	Eli Hammerman	85	55	4	25	45.5%	PHX
138	142	Hussein Champsi	85	54	4	23	42.6%	WSH
145	142	Keith Beaulieu	85	52	3	19	36.5%	VAN
154	142	John Upper	85	50	3	15	30.0%	CHI
130	146	Steven Hawley	84	55	4	26	47.3%	WSH
145	146	Mike Walsh	84	52	4	20	38.5%	NJD
117	148	Jessie Phillips	83	57	6	31	54.4%	DET
154	148	Darryl Jessop	83	50	4	17	34.0%	SJS
130	150	Ashleigh Harrington	82	55	5	28	50.9%	VAN
130	151	Shannon Brewster	81	55	5	29	52.7%	VAN
149	151	Rob Phillips	81	51	3	21	41.2%	SJS
142	153	Dan Salerno	79	53	6	27	50.9%	DET
165	153	Mark Fahey	79	49	3	19	38.8%	WSH
145	155	Andrew Hamilton	76	52	6	28	53.8%	VAN
149	155	Martha Gill	76	51	6	26	51.0%	DET
149	155	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	76	51	4	26	51.0%	WSH
154	155	Dave Spedding	76	50	4	24	48.0%	WSH
138	159	Aron Slipacoff	75	54	6	33	61.1%	VAN
149	160	Bill Hammond	74	51	6	28	54.9%	DET
165	160	Richard Rikkonen	74	49	4	24	49.0%	SJS
188	162	Richard Gretzinger	73	42	4	11	26.2%	BUF
130	163	Patrick Gill	72	55	6	38	69.1%	OTT
171	163	Siyeon Lee	72	48	6	24	50.0%	WSH
165	165	Ron Ego	71	49	6	27	55.1%	WSH
191	165	Lee Beech	71	41	3	11	26.8%	CHI
142	167	Jeff Jacobs	70	53	6	36	67.9%	WSH
154	168	David Minuk	68	50	5	32	64.0%	WSH
165	168	Sam Fielding	68	49	5	30	61.2%	CHI
184	168	Brad Hotson	68	43	5	18	41.9%	BUF
154	171	Russell Reed	67	50	6	33	66.0%	WSH
154	171	Terry Hoey	67	50	6	33	66.0%	NJD
154	171	Peter Holland	67	50	6	33	66.0%	CHI
154	171	David Hart	67	50	6	33	66.0%	WSH
154	171	Ford Hatchett	67	50	6	33	66.0%	NJD
171	171	Tammy Comeau	67	48	5	29	60.4%	CHI
181	177	Dave Sturgis	66	44	6	22	50.0%	VAN
192	177	Angie Lockett	66	40	3	14	35.0%	OTT
165	179	Norrin Ripsman	65	49	6	33	67.3%	NJD
173	180	Blair Phillips	64	47	6	30	63.8%	CHI
173	180	Kevin Hinch	64	47	6	30	63.8%	WSH
181	180	Matthew Stiles	64	44	5	24	54.5%	NJD
184	183	AJ Stais	63	43	5	23	53.5%	WSH
197	184	Sean Smith	62	35	3	8	22.9%	SJS
173	185	Jordana Wexler	61	47	6	33	70.2%	NJD
184	186	Stephen Craig	60	43	6	26	60.5%	NJD
178	187	Brett Kirkpatrick	59	46	6	33	71.7%	WSH
188	188	Julian Vardy	58	42	6	26	61.9%	BUF
188	188	Scott Strachan	58	42	6	26	61.9%	OTT
193	188	Einar Gainforth-Beech	58	39	6	20	51.3%	DET
180	191	Ethan Craig	57	45	6	33	73.3%	SJS
178	192	Camillo Cipriano	56	46	6	36	78.3%	WSH
181	192	Ian Duke	56	44	6	32	72.7%	WSH
184	192	Alvin Gainforth	56	43	6	30	69.8%	WSH
193	192	Jeff Hammond	56	39	6	22	56.4%	WSH
195	196	George Smith	53	37	6	21	56.8%	CHI
195	197	Dryden Craig	37	37	9	37	100.0%	NJD