Lord Stanley's Pool 2010 - Round 2 Analysis

Another round, another shocking upset... and a remarkable comeback. This year's pool may have lost an inordinate number of picks early, but the story this year is not of who's winning and losing this contest - it is the drama in the Eastern Conference. This is an historic playoff year that will be remembered for many years to come - and the story might not be finished yet.

Montreal's two monumental upsets - over runaway top seed Washington and then over defending Cup champion Pittsburgh, as the 16th-ranked team - suggest that the spirits of the old Forum may have finally moved in to the Bell Centre just as the Molson family took back ownership, and as the team celebrated its 100th birthday. Philadelphia's comeback from a 3-0 deficit, the first such comeback since 1975 (the year the Flyers last won the Cup) and third ever in the NHL - made more improbable by a comeback from 3-0 to win 4-3 in game seven - had to endure another Flyer goaltending injury, several other star players out, and was only cliched due to a Boston too-many-men penalty that must have been deja vu for Don Cherry all over again.

And now the 7th and 8th seeds, both of which only qualified for the playoffs on the last day of the season, meet in the conference final where one will advance to play for the Cup.

The story in the West? Perhaps that there is no story. All the favourites have won, and the only surprise might be that the Sharks don't appear ready to choke despite a perfect excuse to do so when Dan Boyle scored the OT goal against his team in round 1.

Michael Richards might not quite be the Pocket Rocket, but he is gunning for the Habs' and NHL playoff goal records.

San Jose-Chicago is where the pool action is
With 482 picks playing in the Western series (and 50 Cup picks) but only 7 in the East, all eyes will be on the series between top two seeds San Jose and Chicago. The Hawks have more picks, 283 than the Sharks, 199 but most of the poolies in the top half of the pool have players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and defenseman Duncan Keith. Ignoring those players lets us see who has an opportunity to move up in the standings. San Jose's players were sometimes picked by entries with Chicago picks as well - making these people the contenders to move up. Players to watch for standings changes include both goaltenders, Evgeni Nabokov and Antti Niemi, as well as San Jose's "big guns" Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton, and Patrick Marleau (even though they haven't been the top Sharks players).

Look out above
Some significant position gains were made in round 2, and these entries appear to be the main contenders for the big money. Ruth Beder rose 100 positions from 107th to 7th and projections (below) show her in second after round 3. Ruth needs Heatley and Thornton to pick up 11 points before the end of the tournament to overtake the leader and possibly win. If Chicago wins the Cup, she'd need an extra five points (ie. 16 this round only) to stay ahead of Sean Hammond and his Cup pick. Karen Savoie is making her third consecutive run as a contender, after finishing in the money last year and being first until the final game two years ago. Karen needs a good 8 to 10 points from Thornton. Other fast risers including Russell Bobbie and Kevin Boomer still have six players left and look to break into the top ten - and can continue to rise if the Sharks prevail.

The projected leader after next round is Blair Miller, who can certainly make that come true with a shutout or two from Antti Niemi even though he'd be shutting down his own Sharks players in the process.

It took guts, and should be recognized
It certainly took guts, and possibly a lot of heart, to bet on Montreal or some other dark horse picks. Indeed the people who did should be recognized here because unfortunately, their other picks didn't come through for them and they all rank in the hundreds. Joy Smith took three Habs including wonder boy Michael Cammalleri. Hanna-Marea Kennedy took two Canadiens while Laura Wood picked Andrei Markov who has been sitting out with injury. Meanwhile Richard Gretzinger had a great pick with Joe Pavelski and Mike van Steendelaar, the only one in this group with a decent standing, is the only one benefitting from picking Flyer Claude Giroux.

Mitch's predictions
There's something to be said for going 0-for-4 in my second round predictions. Ok there, I've said it. Not sure why I went against my own pool picks in taking Vancouver to win. So this time I'll stick to the plan: Chicago over San Jose, and just so I don't jinx the bleu blanc et rouge, I'll say Philadelphia over Montreal and hope that my 5-for-12 record only improves to 6-for 14.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Ruth Beder	100 (107,7)	Aaron Allard	59
Kevin Boomer	94 (130,36)	Ruth Beder	58
Russell Bobbie	79 (102,23)	Mike Melanson	52
Chris Handfield	69 (145,76)	Karen Savoie	51
John Upper	64 (154,90)	Kevin Boomer	49
Blake Wood	64 (154,90)
Mark Fahey	64 (165,101)
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Jeff Drisdelle	67 (88,155)	Dryden Craig	0
Jessie Phillips	62 (117,179)	Einar Gainforth-Beech	8
Sascha Bloedow	60 (78,138)	Jessie Phillips	9
Todd Beaman	55 (44,99)	Ron Ego	12
Sharon Boitson	55 (28,83)	Dave Sturgis	12
Rachelle Gaudet	55 (28,83)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Jonathan Toews CHI 20 57

Sidney Crosby PIT 19 118

Michael Cammalleri MON 18 1

John Franzen DET 18 19

Michael Richards PHI 17 0

Daniel Briere PHI 15 0

Mikael Samuelsson VAN 15 0
Joe Pavelski SAN 15 1

Henrik Zetterberg DET 15 48

Patrick Kane CHI 15 96

Defense Team Pts Picks

Dennis Wideman BOS 12 0

Sergei Gonchar PIT 12 42

Chris Pronger PHI 11 0

Brian Rafalski DET 11 13

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Antti Niemi CHI 18 7

Evgeni Nabokov SAN 13 26

Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 12 33

Brian Boucher PHI 11 0

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Chicago 283 29

San Jose 199 21

Montreal 6 1

Philadelphia 1 0

OUT Picks Cups

Pittsburgh 266 35

Detroit 175 9

Vancouver 158 18

Boston 0 0

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2, so Antti Niemi would get one shutout, Joe Pavelski would get a pile of points and Duncan Keith would continue to suck.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

67 24 1 Blair Miller 106 6 CHI 148
107 7 2 Ruth Beder 116 5 PIT 147
44 1 3 Aaron Allard 126 3 PIT 146
12 2 4 Mike Melanson 124 3 PIT 145
8 3 5 Sean Hammond 121 3 CHI 141
72 9 6 Karen Savoie 114 4 PIT 140
102 23 6 Russell Bobbie 107 6 CHI 140
56 24 8 Avery Spedding 106 5 WSH 138
67 13 9 Ryan McLennan 110 4 PIT 137
12 13 10 Brendan Hoey 110 3 CHI 136
18 18 10 Mike van Steendelaar 109 4 CHI 136
130 36 12 Kevin Boomer 104 6 PIT 135
117 79 12 Georgia Strachan 95 6 CHI 135
18 8 14 Sanjay Talwar 115 2 PIT 132
44 13 14 Alusha Morris 110 3 PIT 132
154 90 14 John Upper 93 6 CHI 132
28 18 17 Danny Chirnomas 109 4 WSH 131
28 21 18 Brenden Kennedy 108 3 PIT 130
18 5 19 Marco Pazzano 118 1 PIT 128
165 101 20 Mark Fahey 91 6 WSH 127
25 12 21 Dan Leggieri 112 2 VAN 125
56 27 21 Fraser Macdonald 105 3 WSH 125
56 27 21 Peter Hogg 105 3 PIT 125
56 27 21 Mitch Wexler 105 3 PIT 125
56 27 21 Keith Chappell 105 3 PIT 125
56 27 21 Brendan Browne 105 3 PIT 125
56 27 21 Barrett Boitson 105 3 PIT 125
25 39 21 Pierre Gainforth-Beech 103 3 CHI 125
88 68 21 Brad Moulton 97 5 SJS 125
88 68 21 Kevin Hoey 97 5 SJS 125
18 13 31 Steve Sealy 110 2 VAN 123
107 48 31 Rica French 100 4 PIT 123
88 59 31 Frank DiGirolomo 98 4 CHI 123
28 27 34 Jesse Otto 105 2 PIT 122
72 48 34 Lindsay Adams 100 3 WSH 122
67 59 36 Mark Roeder 98 4 SJS 121
138 109 36 Becke Gainforth 88 6 SJS 121
3 10 38 David Lester 113 1 DET 120
3 24 38 Adam Jamieson 106 2 CHI 120
5 4 40 Ryan Thompson 119 0 PIT 119
49 18 40 Stefano Pileggi 109 1 PIT 119
72 21 40 Ron Wener 108 2 PIT 119
98 36 40 Lawren Smith 104 3 PIT 119
49 42 40 Dwight Butler 102 3 SJS 119
18 48 40 Jason Roy 100 3 VAN 119
56 68 40 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 97 4 SJS 119
5 5 47 Flo Handfield 118 0 VAN 118
28 27 47 Matt Seiler 105 2 DET 118
8 42 47 Frank Pileggi 102 3 WSH 118
107 59 47 Shadd Dales 98 3 CHI 118
78 68 51 Kaylee Lim 97 3 WSH 117
125 68 51 Jerry Daleez 97 3 WSH 117
145 123 51 Mike Walsh 85 5 NJD 117
49 52 54 Alan Eng 99 3 SJS 116
78 76 54 Mary Sue Strickland 96 3 WSH 116
102 101 54 Harris Beder 91 4 WSH 116
145 76 54 Chris Handfield 96 5 PIT 116
18 39 58 Ryan Courville 103 2 WSH 115
117 99 58 Jason Lin 92 4 SJS 115
44 52 60 Shane Firth 99 3 WSH 114
78 83 60 Michael Patton 94 3 CHI 114
28 10 62 Janine Pileggi 113 0 VAN 113
18 13 62 Li Tan 110 1 PIT 113
8 39 62 Aaron Pretto 103 2 WSH 113
49 59 62 Jo-Ann Fahey 98 3 CHI 113
107 90 62 Andrea De Petrillo 93 3 CHI 113
154 90 62 Blake Wood 93 3 NJD 113
78 90 62 Patrick Provost 93 4 SJS 113
78 90 62 Vincent Galante 93 4 SJS 113
191 145 62 Lee Beech 79 6 CHI 113
197 150 62 Sean Smith 78 6 SJS 113
12 59 72 Andrew Ryan 98 3 WSH 112
117 68 72 Cheryl Wallace 97 3 VAN 112
25 36 74 Sarah Stewart-Browne 104 1 VAN 111
56 46 74 Brad MacDonald 101 2 PIT 111
49 68 74 Nina Lozano 97 3 WSH 111
49 79 77 Tracy Smith 95 3 PIT 110
67 79 77 Braeden Provost 95 3 CHI 110
88 83 77 Jamie Spilchuk 94 3 CHI 110
38 83 77 Ian Winsor 94 3 SJS 110
142 123 77 Samara McAdam 85 4 NJD 110
149 138 77 Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff 82 5 WSH 110
98 101 83 Colin Kennedy 91 3 CHI 109
117 129 83 Patrick Mitchell 84 4 WSH 109
49 59 85 Andrew Tompkins 98 2 VAN 108
98 90 85 Douglas Wilkinson 93 3 CHI 108
38 68 87 Duncan Campbell 97 2 CHI 107
173 113 87 April De Mello 87 3 PIT 107
107 113 87 Les Endes 87 3 WSH 107
107 113 87 Shawn Robichaud 87 3 WSH 107
56 59 91 Pette Chappell 98 2 PIT 106
44 99 91 Todd Beaman 92 3 SJS 106
1 27 93 Jay Dart 105 0 DET 105
165 113 94 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 87 3 DET 104
173 129 94 Dan Sullivan 84 3 CHI 104
192 157 94 Angie Lockett 74 6 OTT 104
28 76 97 Adam Bloedow 96 1 CHI 103
56 90 97 Andy Hotson 93 2 PIT 103
125 109 97 Mike Newbauer 88 3 NJD 103
72 113 97 Vicki Lewis 87 3 SJS 103
138 129 97 Rhonda Morris 84 4 WSH 103
188 153 97 Richard Gretzinger 76 4 BUF 103
1 42 103 Dennis Clayton 102 0 WSH 102
8 42 103 Ryan Slack 102 0 PIT 102
5 52 103 Bo Chen 99 1 WSH 102
102 83 103 Marilyn Beaulieu 94 2 PIT 102
165 153 103 Richard Rikkonen 76 5 SJS 102
38 46 108 Gabe Pretto 101 0 PIT 101
78 101 108 Samuel Wexler 91 2 VAN 101
88 109 108 Gary Margolis 88 3 WSH 101
72 121 108 Tim Smith 86 3 WSH 101
130 123 108 Eli Hammerman 85 3 PHX 101
88 48 113 George Crothers 100 0 WSH 100
149 123 113 Gabriel Strachan 85 3 CHI 100
107 129 113 Joy Smith 84 3 MTL 100
38 52 116 Jeff Wener 99 0 WSH 99
28 52 116 Patrick Fahey 99 0 PIT 99
12 52 116 Richard Ciano 99 0 WSH 99
28 52 116 Kyle Hogg 99 0 WSH 99
102 107 116 Brent Morris 89 2 NJD 99
117 121 116 Mark Brewster 86 3 PIT 99
88 129 116 Barry Potter 84 3 CHI 99
130 145 116 Patrick Gill 79 3 OTT 99
12 59 124 David Loop 98 0 WSH 98
12 59 124 Marie-Jos� LeBlanc 98 0 WSH 98
88 109 124 Ryan Chirnomas 88 2 WSH 98
171 155 124 Tammy Comeau 75 4 CHI 98
78 83 128 Maxwell Brewster 94 1 WSH 97
154 142 128 Laura Wood 81 4 SJS 97
107 123 130 Bryan Wood 85 3 WSH 96
117 135 130 Patrick Bouchard 83 3 SJS 96
117 135 130 Deric Chow 83 3 WSH 96
107 135 130 Shane Kozlowich 83 3 SJS 96
38 79 134 Al Champsi 95 0 WSH 95
130 129 134 Joel Pollock 84 2 WSH 95
130 143 134 Steven Hawley 80 3 WSH 95
154 150 134 Dave Spedding 78 4 WSH 95
28 83 138 Sharon Boitson 94 0 WSH 94
28 83 138 Rachelle Gaudet 94 0 VAN 94
149 145 138 Rob Phillips 79 3 SJS 94
154 145 138 Darryl Jessop 79 3 SJS 94
154 157 138 Terry Hoey 74 3 NJD 94
154 157 138 Peter Holland 74 3 CHI 94
154 157 138 Russell Reed 74 3 WSH 94
38 90 145 Mike De Petrillo 93 0 WSH 93
44 90 145 Eric Sorenson 93 0 WSH 93
102 106 145 Jerome Brouard 90 1 NJD 93
154 161 145 David Minuk 73 4 WSH 93
181 172 145 Matthew Stiles 70 4 NJD 93
88 138 150 George Roman 82 2 WSH 92
125 138 150 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 82 2 WSH 92
184 173 150 AJ Stais 69 4 WSH 92
67 101 153 Chris McCluskey 91 0 PIT 91
173 169 153 Blair Phillips 71 3 CHI 91
173 169 153 Kevin Hinch 71 3 WSH 91
165 169 153 Sam Fielding 71 4 CHI 91
78 107 157 Jonas Struthers 89 0 WSH 89
130 152 157 Chris Smith 77 3 VAN 89
78 123 159 Abraham McAllister 85 1 WSH 88
145 145 159 Keith Beaulieu 79 2 VAN 88
98 113 161 Roger Brouard 87 0 NJD 87
72 113 161 Emma and Andrew Fielding 87 0 PHX 87
107 113 161 Sophie Wexler 87 0 BUF 87
184 178 161 Stephen Craig 67 3 NJD 87
125 143 165 Ted Kennedy 80 1 VAN 85
142 167 165 Jeff Jacobs 72 2 WSH 85
193 184 167 Jeff Hammond 63 3 WSH 83
78 138 168 Sascha Bloedow 82 0 PIT 82
138 161 169 Hussein Champsi 73 2 WSH 80
178 181 170 Camillo Cipriano 65 3 WSH 79
154 175 171 David Hart 68 2 WSH 78
154 175 171 Ford Hatchett 68 2 NJD 78
130 161 173 Shannon Brewster 73 1 VAN 76
88 155 174 Jeff Drisdelle 75 0 WSH 75
125 161 175 Ragulan Vathsalan 73 1 WSH 74
142 161 176 Dan Salerno 73 0 DET 73
130 161 176 Ashleigh Harrington 73 0 VAN 73
184 182 176 Brad Hotson 64 2 BUF 73
178 187 176 Brett Kirkpatrick 60 3 WSH 73
180 187 176 Ethan Craig 60 3 SJS 73
173 187 176 Jordana Wexler 60 3 NJD 73
195 193 176 George Smith 56 3 CHI 73
149 167 183 Bill Hammond 72 0 DET 72
181 190 183 Ian Duke 59 3 WSH 72
188 191 183 Scott Strachan 57 3 OTT 72
188 191 183 Julian Vardy 57 3 BUF 72
165 173 187 Norrin Ripsman 69 0 NJD 69
138 175 188 Aron Slipacoff 68 0 VAN 68
145 179 189 Andrew Hamilton 66 0 VAN 66
117 179 189 Jessie Phillips 66 0 DET 66
149 182 191 Martha Gill 64 0 DET 64
171 184 192 Siyeon Lee 63 0 WSH 63
184 193 193 Alvin Gainforth 56 2 WSH 62
165 186 194 Ron Ego 61 0 WSH 61
181 193 195 Dave Sturgis 56 0 VAN 56
193 196 196 Einar Gainforth-Beech 47 0 DET 47
195 197 197 Dryden Craig 37 0 NJD 37