Round 3 Analysis

Niemi's finals performance will likely determine the outcome of the pool.

The playoffs went predictably enough in the West, but not at all as expected in the East, and we are left with what should be an exciting final between Chicago and Philadelphia. Both teams haven't won in a long, long time (Chicago since 1961, Flyers since 1975); both teams have dynamic young players who were not yet born when these teams last won.

For the pool, where there was little drama in round three and only slightly more expected in the final, that's how it goes sometimes. If we all had crystal balls, then... um, insert your own punchline here.

The contenders
Although there won't be too much movement at the top of the standings, there are a few scenarios that would change the results, most notably if Antti Niemi can get a shutout or two. A small battle will be Duncan Keith against Brent Seabrook, while Claude Giroux is the only Flyer in the mix. Jonathan Toews is on all contenders' entries while Patrick Kane is on all but one. Let's examine who's in the running.

If Chicago wins: Current leader Sean Hammond has the inside track should Chicago win the Cup. His is the top entry with the Hawks to win and would leapfrog Aaron Allard by five points. Coming from behind with a chance to break in are Blair Miller and Mike van Steendelaar. Starting only two points behind Aaron (with Chicago's bonus factored in), a Niemi shutout would lift them in. Blair's Niemi vs. Keith or Mike's Niemi and Giroux vs. Kane provides the most potential drama for the final round. Brendan Hoey can also make it in but would need three shutouts, not so likely to happen.

If Philadelphia wins: Aaron Allard, who has led since late in round two, should cruise to victory with his current five point margin if the Flyers win. Depending on Keith vs. Seabrook, Sean Hammond would be next and Ruth Beder would have a chance to climb into third. If Seabrook stays even with or better than Keith, Mike Melanson would hold on to second, with Sean third and leaving Ruth on the outside looking in.

Chicago win				Philadelphia win
Sean Hammond	136 (+10)	Toews, Kane, Keith		Aaron Allard	141	Toews, Kane, Keith
Aaron Allard	141	Toews, Kane, Keith		Sean Hammond	136	Toews, Kane, Keith
Mike van Steendelaar	129 (+10)	Toews, Keith, Niemi, Giroux		Mike Melanson	136	Toews, Kane, Seabrook
Blair Miller	129 (+10)	Toews, Kane, Niemi		Ruth Beder	134	Toews, Kane, Keith
Mike Melanson	136	Toews, Kane, Seabrook		Mike van Steendelaar	129	Toews, Keith, Niemi, Giroux
Brendan Hoey	125 (+10)	Toews, Kane, Niemi

Third time the charm for Hossa?
Marian Hossa was the subject of scorn after signing with Chicago after turning down offers by Detroit and Pittsburgh, yet he picked well and is being rewarded with a third chance in a row to win the Cup. Hossa of course lost in the finals with Pittsburgh two years ago, then jumped to Detroit and lost with them last year. Although he hasn't been the top player for the Hawks, one would think he will be extra motivated to avoid the dubious distinction of losing the finals three straight years with three different teams.

The one from the East
Plenty of people picked Chicago players but only one pick is present from the East: Claude Giroux. Mike van Steendelaar was the only one to do so, and with three points Giroux would pass Michael Cammalleri as the best darkhorse pick. As such Mike is the only entry with four players in the final round.



Mitch's prediction
Despite my wishes I picked both Round 3 series to even up my record on the year to 7-7. For the final it's a question of which curse is more dire, Hossa's losing string or the curse of the conference trophy. Philly planned in advance to pick up the Wales trophy in spite of the curse, but they will indeed be bitten - and haunted by that Lindros Wales snub while the third time is indeed the charm for Hossa. Oh, and Chicago's better.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Lee Beech	78 (145,67)		Lee Beech	28
Mark Fahey	67 (101,34)		Georgia Strachan	28
Georgia Strachan	66 (79,13)		Sean Smith	24
Sean Smith	66 (150,84)		Blair Miller	23
Harris Beder	54 (101,47)		Mark Fahey	23
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
2 People:	-49 (59,108)		40 People with:	0
4 People:	-49 (52,101)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Jonathan Toews CHI 26 57 Mike Richards PHI 21 0 Patrick Kane CHI 20 96 Michael Cammalleri MON 19 1 Sidney Crosby PIT 19 118 Daniel Briere PHI 18 0 Johan Franzen DET 18 19 Claude Giroux PHI 17 1 Joe Pavelski SAN 17 1 Patrick Sharp CHI 16 7	Defense Team Pts Picks Chris Pronger PHI 14 0 Dan Boyle SAN 14 39 Dennis Wideman BOS 12 0 Sergei Gonchar PIT 12 42 Goalies Team Pts Picks Antti Niemi CHI 22 7 Michael Leighton PHI 15 0 Evgeni Nabokov SAN 13 26 Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 12 33
Teams
IN Picks Cups Chicago 283 29 Philadelphia 1 0	OUT Picks Cups San Jose 199 21 Montreal 6 1

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd4 Projection
44	1	1	1	Aaron Allard	141	3	PIT	159
8	3	2	2	Sean Hammond	136	3	CHI	154
12	2	2	2	Mike Melanson	136	3	PIT	154
18	18	6	2	Mike van Steendelaar	129	4	CHI	154
107	7	4	5	Ruth Beder	134	3	PIT	152
67	24	6	6	Blair Miller	129	3	CHI	151
72	9	5	7	Karen Savoie	130	3	PIT	148
12	13	10	8	Brendan Hoey	125	3	CHI	147
117	79	13	9	Georgia Strachan	123	3	CHI	145
67	13	8	10	Ryan McLennan	128	2	PIT	143
18	8	9	11	Sanjay Talwar	126	2	PIT	141
44	13	14	11	Alusha Morris	122	3	PIT	141
56	24	14	13	Avery Spedding	122	3	WSH	140
28	21	11	14	Brenden Kennedy	124	2	PIT	139
56	27	18	15	Peter Hogg	120	3	PIT	138
56	27	18	15	Fraser Macdonald	120	3	WSH	138
56	27	18	15	Barrett Boitson	120	3	PIT	138
56	27	18	15	Brendan Browne	120	3	PIT	138
56	27	18	15	Keith Chappell	120	3	PIT	138
56	27	18	15	Mitch Wexler	120	3	PIT	138
25	39	31	21	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	117	3	CHI	136
88	59	18	22	Frank DiGirolomo	120	2	CHI	135
130	36	14	22	Kevin Boomer	122	3	PIT	135
25	12	14	24	Dan Leggieri	122	2	VAN	134
102	23	18	25	Russell Bobbie	120	3	CHI	133
18	5	11	26	Marco Pazzano	124	1	PIT	132
18	13	18	26	Steve Sealy	120	2	VAN	132
165	101	34	26	Mark Fahey	114	3	WSH	132
28	27	32	29	Jesse Otto	116	2	PIT	131
107	59	36	29	Shadd Dales	113	3	CHI	131
72	48	41	29	Lindsay Adams	112	3	WSH	131
28	18	18	32	Danny Chirnomas	120	2	WSH	130
18	48	36	32	Jason Roy	113	3	VAN	130
125	68	41	32	Jerry Daleez	112	3	WSH	130
78	68	41	32	Kaylee Lim	112	3	WSH	130
78	76	47	36	Mary Sue Strickland	111	3	WSH	129
102	101	47	36	Harris Beder	111	3	WSH	129
78	83	52	38	Michael Patton	109	3	CHI	127
107	90	62	39	Andrea De Petrillo	108	3	CHI	126
154	90	62	39	Blake Wood	108	3	NJD	126
154	90	62	39	John Upper	108	3	CHI	126
3	24	36	42	Adam Jamieson	113	2	CHI	125
191	145	67	42	Lee Beech	107	3	CHI	125
3	10	29	44	David Lester	118	1	DET	124
49	18	33	45	Stefano Pileggi	115	1	PIT	123
142	123	73	45	Samara McAdam	105	3	NJD	123
145	123	77	45	Mike Walsh	104	3	NJD	123
8	39	41	48	Aaron Pretto	112	2	WSH	122
88	83	50	48	Jamie Spilchuk	110	2	CHI	122
44	52	52	48	Shane Firth	109	3	WSH	122
138	109	67	48	Becke Gainforth	107	3	SJS	122
49	59	62	52	Jo-Ann Fahey	108	3	CHI	121
56	46	50	53	Brad MacDonald	110	2	PIT	120
117	68	67	53	Cheryl Wallace	107	3	VAN	120
197	150	84	53	Sean Smith	102	3	SJS	120
107	113	84	53	Shawn Robichaud	102	3	WSH	120
173	113	84	53	April De Mello	102	3	PIT	120
107	113	84	53	Les Endes	102	3	WSH	120
5	4	28	59	Ryan Thompson	119	0	PIT	119
107	48	36	59	Rica French	113	1	PIT	119
67	59	52	59	Mark Roeder	109	2	SJS	119
88	68	52	59	Brad Moulton	109	2	SJS	119
88	68	52	59	Kevin Hoey	109	2	SJS	119
18	39	52	59	Ryan Courville	109	2	WSH	119
5	5	29	65	Flo Handfield	118	0	VAN	118
28	27	41	65	Matt Seiler	112	1	DET	118
67	79	73	65	Braeden Provost	105	3	CHI	118
18	13	34	68	Li Tan	114	1	PIT	117
49	59	67	68	Andrew Tompkins	107	2	VAN	117
56	68	67	68	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	107	2	SJS	117
173	129	101	68	Dan Sullivan	99	3	CHI	117
38	68	72	72	Duncan Campbell	106	2	CHI	116
98	90	80	72	Douglas Wilkinson	103	3	CHI	116
117	129	101	72	Patrick Mitchell	99	3	WSH	116
25	36	52	75	Sarah Stewart-Browne	109	1	VAN	115
28	10	36	76	Janine Pileggi	113	0	VAN	113
138	129	94	76	Rhonda Morris	100	3	WSH	113
98	36	41	78	Lawren Smith	112	0	PIT	112
130	145	123	78	Patrick Gill	94	3	OTT	112
72	21	47	80	Ron Wener	111	0	PIT	111
145	76	77	80	Chris Handfield	104	2	PIT	111
117	99	77	82	Jason Lin	104	1	SJS	110
78	101	94	82	Samuel Wexler	100	2	VAN	110
12	59	52	84	Andrew Ryan	109	0	WSH	109
8	42	52	84	Frank Pileggi	109	0	WSH	109
56	59	52	84	Pette Chappell	109	0	PIT	109
49	68	62	87	Nina Lozano	108	0	WSH	108
98	101	108	87	Colin Kennedy	98	2	CHI	108
102	107	108	87	Brent Morris	98	2	NJD	108
149	123	118	87	Gabriel Strachan	95	3	CHI	108
28	76	91	91	Adam Bloedow	101	1	CHI	107
88	129	123	91	Barry Potter	94	3	CHI	107
188	153	139	91	Richard Gretzinger	90	3	BUF	107
154	157	141	91	Russell Reed	89	3	WSH	107
154	157	141	91	Terry Hoey	89	3	NJD	107
154	157	141	91	Peter Holland	89	3	CHI	107
5	52	80	97	Bo Chen	103	1	WSH	106
49	42	73	98	Dwight Butler	105	0	SJS	105
1	27	73	98	Jay Dart	105	0	DET	105
130	123	118	98	Eli Hammerman	95	2	PHX	105
149	138	123	101	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	94	2	WSH	104
173	169	158	101	Blair Phillips	86	3	CHI	104
173	169	158	101	Kevin Hinch	86	3	WSH	104
44	99	80	104	Todd Beaman	103	0	SJS	103
49	79	80	104	Tracy Smith	103	0	PIT	103
78	90	94	104	Patrick Provost	100	1	SJS	103
78	90	94	104	Vincent Galante	100	1	SJS	103
165	153	130	104	Richard Rikkonen	93	2	SJS	103
192	157	147	104	Angie Lockett	88	3	OTT	103
8	42	84	110	Ryan Slack	102	0	PIT	102
1	42	84	110	Dennis Clayton	102	0	WSH	102
49	52	84	110	Alan Eng	102	0	SJS	102
102	83	101	110	Marilyn Beaulieu	99	1	PIT	102
171	155	148	110	Tammy Comeau	87	3	CHI	102
38	46	91	115	Gabe Pretto	101	0	PIT	101
88	109	91	115	Gary Margolis	101	0	WSH	101
78	83	108	115	Maxwell Brewster	98	1	WSH	101
125	138	134	115	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	91	2	WSH	101
56	90	94	119	Andy Hotson	100	0	PIT	100
88	48	94	119	George Crothers	100	0	WSH	100
38	83	94	119	Ian Winsor	100	0	SJS	100
184	178	162	119	Stephen Craig	82	3	NJD	100
38	52	101	123	Jeff Wener	99	0	WSH	99
28	52	101	123	Patrick Fahey	99	0	PIT	99
12	52	101	123	Richard Ciano	99	0	WSH	99
28	52	101	123	Kyle Hogg	99	0	WSH	99
12	59	108	127	David Loop	98	0	WSH	98
12	59	108	127	Marie-José LeBlanc	98	0	WSH	98
117	121	108	127	Mark Brewster	98	0	PIT	98
181	172	161	127	Matthew Stiles	83	3	NJD	98
102	106	123	131	Jerome Brouard	94	1	NJD	97
165	169	148	131	Sam Fielding	87	2	CHI	97
184	173	162	131	AJ Stais	82	3	WSH	97
107	135	114	134	Shane Kozlowich	96	0	SJS	96
125	109	114	134	Mike Newbauer	96	0	NJD	96
117	135	114	134	Deric Chow	96	0	WSH	96
117	135	114	134	Patrick Bouchard	96	0	SJS	96
193	184	169	134	Jeff Hammond	78	3	WSH	96
88	109	118	139	Ryan Chirnomas	95	0	WSH	95
38	79	118	139	Al Champsi	95	0	WSH	95
165	113	118	139	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	95	0	DET	95
72	121	133	139	Tim Smith	92	1	WSH	95
72	113	123	143	Vicki Lewis	94	0	SJS	94
28	83	123	143	Sharon Boitson	94	0	WSH	94
28	83	123	143	Rachelle Gaudet	94	0	VAN	94
154	150	134	143	Dave Spedding	91	1	WSH	94
38	90	130	147	Mike De Petrillo	93	0	WSH	93
44	90	130	147	Eric Sorenson	93	0	WSH	93
107	123	134	149	Bryan Wood	91	0	WSH	91
78	123	134	149	Abraham McAllister	91	0	WSH	91
67	101	134	149	Chris McCluskey	91	0	PIT	91
154	142	139	152	Laura Wood	90	0	SJS	90
78	107	141	153	Jonas Struthers	89	0	WSH	89
130	152	141	153	Chris Smith	89	0	VAN	89
88	138	141	153	George Roman	89	0	WSH	89
107	113	148	156	Sophie Wexler	87	0	BUF	87
149	145	148	156	Rob Phillips	87	0	SJS	87
130	129	148	156	Joel Pollock	87	0	WSH	87
154	145	148	156	Darryl Jessop	87	0	SJS	87
130	143	148	156	Steven Hawley	87	0	WSH	87
72	113	148	156	Emma and Andrew Fielding	87	0	PHX	87
145	145	148	156	Keith Beaulieu	87	0	VAN	87
98	113	148	156	Roger Brouard	87	0	NJD	87
154	175	170	156	David Hart	77	2	WSH	87
154	175	170	156	Ford Hatchett	77	2	NJD	87
107	129	160	166	Joy Smith	85	0	MTL	85
138	161	162	166	Hussein Champsi	82	1	WSH	85
142	167	168	166	Jeff Jacobs	79	1	WSH	85
154	161	167	169	David Minuk	80	1	WSH	83
78	138	162	170	Sascha Bloedow	82	0	PIT	82
195	193	185	170	George Smith	67	3	CHI	82
125	143	166	172	Ted Kennedy	81	0	VAN	81
130	161	170	173	Shannon Brewster	77	1	VAN	80
188	191	185	173	Scott Strachan	67	3	OTT	80
188	191	185	173	Julian Vardy	67	3	BUF	80
173	187	185	176	Jordana Wexler	67	3	NJD	78
88	155	173	177	Jeff Drisdelle	75	0	WSH	75
178	181	174	178	Camillo Cipriano	74	0	WSH	74
178	187	175	179	Brett Kirkpatrick	73	0	WSH	73
130	161	175	179	Ashleigh Harrington	73	0	VAN	73
125	161	175	179	Ragulan Vathsalan	73	0	WSH	73
142	161	175	179	Dan Salerno	73	0	DET	73
180	187	179	183	Ethan Craig	72	0	SJS	72
149	167	179	183	Bill Hammond	72	0	DET	72
181	190	181	185	Ian Duke	71	0	WSH	71
184	182	181	185	Brad Hotson	71	0	BUF	71
165	173	183	187	Norrin Ripsman	69	0	NJD	69
184	193	189	187	Alvin Gainforth	66	1	WSH	69
138	175	184	189	Aron Slipacoff	68	0	VAN	68
145	179	189	190	Andrew Hamilton	66	0	VAN	66
117	179	189	190	Jessie Phillips	66	0	DET	66
149	182	192	192	Martha Gill	64	0	DET	64
171	184	193	193	Siyeon Lee	63	0	WSH	63
165	186	194	194	Ron Ego	61	0	WSH	61
181	193	195	195	Dave Sturgis	56	0	VAN	56
193	196	196	196	Einar Gainforth-Beech	47	0	DET	47
195	197	197	197	Dryden Craig	37	0	NJD	37