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| Evgeni Malkin carries his MVP expectations into the pool as the most popular pick. |
Opening analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
The return of Sidney Crosby, added to a stacked Penguins roster that already includes scoring champ Evgeni Malkin, has made Pittsburgh the favourite to win the Cup and the most popular team in the pool. 102 of 234 entries (43.6%) picked the Penguins to win, with 494 player picks - just over 70 per cent of possible picks at three per team.
This was slightly less dominant than Vancouver last year (49% of Cup picks, 73.5% of players) but stronger than all others since the lockout.
The Canucks are a clear second with 358 picks, though poolies were not as confident to bet on them to win. Vancouver was picked 34 times to win the Cup, edged by the New York Rangers with 37 Cup picks. The Rangers have 239 player picks. Cup-defending Boston was also strong with 214 picks and 17 Cup picks.
Two teams with new found popularity this year are Nashville (8 Cup, 156 player picks) and St. Louis (11 Cup, 132 player picks).
Poolies seem to either love or hate the City of Brotherly Love. Philadelphia's 66 player picks is on the low side for a team with eight Cup picks. This is an indication that few people were willing to risk taking Flyers over Penguins players unless they are betting on the upset. Other teams pick up their share of picks from poolies not taking them to win the Cup, but not the Flyers - those who took them are betting on them to go the distance. Otherwise people are staying away.
Evgeni Malkin is the pool's most popular pick, on 170 of 234 entries (72.7%). This is the second time Malkin claims the honour (last time in 2008) and both times, Sidney Crosby has come second. Crosby was also second to Alex Ovechkin in 2010 and has never been the top pick, despite being the best player in the game (when playing).
Last year's top pick, Daniel Sedin, is taking his turn on the stars-with-concussions brigade, and the uncertainty has dropped him to 9th with 43 picks, behind teammate Ryan Kesler's 48. Brother Henrik Sedin, runner-up last year, is third this year with 129 picks.
This year's top-picked defenseman, Alexander Edler, was picked by only 30 per cent of the pool (71 picks), a record low for the top defenseman and only the second time top defender is on less than half of the entries (the other being Dan Boyle last year at 33 per cent). Unlike last year, however, the top teams in the pool have the top defensemen with Edler and Kris Letang (64 picks).
The increased parity means more defenders are in play as potential impact players in the pool. Close behind the leaders are Zdeno Chara (57 picks), Shea Weber (56), and Alex Pietrangelo (52) while six other players have a dozen picks or more.
Nicklas Lidstrom is 42 years old and was injured part of this season, obvious contributing factors to the future Hall of Famer not being among the top defense picks. Lidstrom has been in all 14 Lord Stanley's Pools and this is the first year he is not in the top five picked defensemen - and only the second time he's not in the top two.
This incredible run includes six years at #1 and six years at #2, stats that are unlikely to be matched for a very long time, if ever. And that of course would require me to be running the pool for another generation or more.
Still, at 22 picks and ranked 7th, Lidstrom is still a factor and likely would be again if he plays again next year.
Marc-Andre Fleury is the most popular goalie this year, with 61 picks, but at only 26% he has the third-lowest rating in the 14 years of the pool. Fleury edged Henrik Lundqvist (59) by two picks for the top spot, making both of the top two goalies from the Eastern Conference.
Pekka Rinne has 31 picks, the star behind Nashville's rise, and could be an impact player but only if he shuts down Detroit's offence. Defending Conn Smythe Trophy winner Tim Thomas is fourth with 26, leaving Roberto Luongo - last year's clear top pick - in fifth with 25.
Luongo's relatively low popularity for a top team is partly because of the strength of Vancouver's roster at all positions - even without Daniel Sedin - but it may also reflect the Canucks organization seemingly getting Cory Schneider ready in case Luongo falters. However nobody dared to take Schneider in the pool.
My predictions mean absolutely nothing, as past pools will show. So without further ado:
New York, Boston, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit. Those who know me will call travesty at my not taking the Sens over the Rangers but seriously, ask all the Leafs fans in this pool what happens when you bet with your heart and not your wallet (see 2004 in particular).
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.
F:
Evgeni Malkin, Pit (170 picks)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (153)
Henrik Sedin, Van (129)
Marian Gaborik, NYR (81)
Brad Richards, NYR (64)
Tyler Seguin, Bos (51)
D:
Alexander Edler, Van (71)
Kris Letang, Pit (64)
G:
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit (61)
Last year:
F:
Daniel Sedin, Van (151 picks)
Alexander Ovechkin, Was (127)
Henrik Sedin, Van (126)
Nicklas Backstrom, Was (77)
Patrick Marleau, San (67)
Corey Perry, Ana (63)
D:
Dan Boyle, SJ (69)
Nicklas Lidstrom, Det (68)
G:
Roberto Luongo, Van (85)
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