
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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Claude Giroux had superstar numbers playing against the Penguins' superstars. |
Devastating and unfathomed first-round upsets will be the story of this pool. Futility records have been smashed, and many people are left watching the playoffs with no picks to cheer. An astonishing 26 entries are left with no picks after round 1, something only 11 entries have done in total over the first 13 seasons of the pool! (3 in 2003; 2 in '06, '07, '08; 1 in '10 and '02). Only two poolies are left unscathed and only 10 have more than six picks remaining. This leaves plenty of opportunity for some poolies to make a big jump up the standings but for most, they will be watching their rank drop slowly and surely.
We have seen favourites go down before, but never quite so many. Pittsburgh's elimination was second only to Washington's 2010 flameout in terms of biggest pool favourites - by player picks. But the Pens were far and away the heaviest Cup favourite to fall, with over 43% of Cup picks, destroying the Capitals' 2010 record of 31%.
Add Vancouver to the mix (top-10 futility in its own right), and 2012 smashed the record for first-round futility. 64% of the pool's picks are gone after round 1 (well above 2003's record 58.5%) and 69% of Cup picks - only the second time the pool has broken 50% for that measure. This comes only one year after we set a record for fewest picks eliminated in round one.
Scarier still was the real possibility that New York and New Jersey could have been knocked out in game 7 - this would have raised these numbers to 78% of player picks and 86% of Cup picks.
So let's revisit our Worst First-Round Upsets chart from 2010:
Player Picks Lost R1, One Team | Cup Picks Lost R1, One Team |
Year | Tot.Picks | Team | Lost | Percentage (max 33.33) |
2010 | 1773 | Washington | 444 | 25.04 |
2012 | 2097 | Pittsburgh | 491 | 23.41 |
2003 | 603 | Detroit | 133 | 22.06 |
2003 | 603 | Colorado | 131 | 21.72 |
2006 | 936 | Detroit | 194 | 20.73 |
2009 | 1665 | San Jose | 302 | 18.14 |
2000 | 297 | St. Louis | 52 | 17.51 |
2012 | 2097 | Vancouver | 356 | 16.97 |
1998 | 144 | New Jersey | 22 | 15.28 |
1999 | 162 | New Jersey | 22 | 13.58 |
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Year | Entries | Team | Lost | Percentage |
2012 | 233 | Pittsburgh | 101 | 43.35 |
2010 | 197 | Washington | 61 | 30.96 |
2009 | 185 | San Jose | 55 | 29.73 |
2006 | 104 | Detroit | 27 | 25.96 |
2003 | 67 | Detroit | 17 | 25.37 |
2003 | 67 | Colorado | 16 | 23.88 |
2003 | 67 | Toronto | 15 | 22.39 |
1998 | 16 | New Jersey | 3 | 18.75 |
2000 | 33 | St. Louis | 6 | 18.18 |
2012 | 233 | Vancouver | 34 | 14.59 |
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Worst first-round upsets in pool history (top 10)
Player Picks Lost R1, Year | Cup Picks Lost R1, Year |
Year | Entries | Tot.Picks | Lost | Percentage |
2012 | 233 | 2097 | 1352 | 64.47 |
2003 | 67 | 603 | 353 | 58.54 |
1998 | 16 | 144 | 72 | 50.00 |
2006 | 104 | 936 | 444 | 47.44 |
2010 | 197 | 1773 | 685 | 38.64 |
2002 | 39 | 351 | 110 | 31.34 |
2000 | 33 | 297 | 90 | 30.30 |
2004 | 102 | 978 | 249 | 27.12 |
2009 | 185 | 1665 | 431 | 25.89 |
1999 | 18 | 162 | 39 | 24.07 |
2008 | 189 | 1701 | 387 | 22.75 |
2007 | 132 | 1188 | 236 | 19.87 |
2001 | 40 | 360 | 64 | 17.78 |
2011 | 205 | 1845 | 271 | 14.69 |
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Year | Entries | Lost | Percentage |
2003 | 67 | 48 | 71.64 |
2012 | 233 | 161 | 69.10 |
2006 | 104 | 46 | 44.23 |
2010 | 197 | 84 | 42.64 |
2009 | 185 | 65 | 35.14 |
1998 | 16 | 5 | 31.25 |
2000 | 33 | 7 | 21.21 |
2008 | 189 | 36 | 19.05 |
2004 | 102 | 18 | 17.65 |
2007 | 132 | 21 | 15.91 |
2002 | 39 | 6 | 15.38 |
1999 | 18 | 2 | 11.11 |
2011 | 205 | 13 | 6.34 |
2001 | 40 | 1 | 2.50 |
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First round performance by year
Congratulations to Frank DiGirolomo and Jason Feltz on their joint first round lead with 54 points. This nearly set a record low for first-round leaders (2007 - 53 pts) despite the 80's style scores in the Pitt-Philly series. Frank held the lead or a share of it since day six (ten days) with Jason always not far behind. However they enter round 2 having lost most of their picks and are being chased by four entries with six or seven picks left.
Given that most entries have lost half or more of their picks, we are likely to see a lot of movement in the standings as the new pool contenders try to take advantage. See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
Only two poolies have managed to emerge from round 1 with all of their picks: James Smith, with a very strong looking Philly-Nashville-St.Louis card, and Judah Gould, projected to rise from 206th to 57th with the Rangers-Nashville-Devils/Blues. Both could yet stay intact into round three. James and Judah may have been crazy to pick Nashville and not Pittsburgh and Vancouver but they are looking awfully smart now.
Claude Giroux had a monstrous performance with 14 points in round one, leading the league by a wide margin. With 28 picks he can carry a decent number of poolies up the standings if he continues his pace. The nearest active player is St. Louis' Andy McDonald (8 picks) with 8 points along with a group of Flyers teammates including Daniel Briere (2 picks).
While the favourite players at every position were knocked out (Malkin, Crosby, H.Sedin, Seguin, Edler, Letang, Fleury), most of the remaining top performers will benefit a few select entries.
Martin Brodeur (4 picks) is by far the goalie taken the most in pool history and it has paid off some years, but more recently he has delivered his share of playoff busts. This year after a one-season absence from the playoffs, the Devils first round victory included a shutout and two assists by the legendary goalie, giving him 11 points to lead all goalies and proving that he's back... for this pool at least.
Only two goalie favourites remain in action - Henrik Lundqvist (59 picks) and Pekka Rinne (30 picks) while three others were knocked out.
The biggest bust usually gets picked for their own futility rather than circumstances beyond their control. That's why it's a difficult choice this year. Both Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa had no points, with 25 and 32 picks respectively. Typically it would go to the one with more picks but in this case we're giving the dubious distinction to Luongo. Hossa was injured; Luongo was pulled even though he played well. But goalies are an important pick and Luongo was a bigger let-down as a result. Next year he can play for a team with no playoff hopes: like Toronto!
Biggest busts over the years: 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. The Hindsight Award this year goes to Blair Phillips for being the only one to pick Phoenix goalie Mike Smith, who has 10 points and counting going into round 2. Honourable mentions to Sasha Bloedow, who took Jordan Staal (9 points, out) and to Amy van Steendelaar who's Jakob Voracek pick is still going strong (7 points after round 1).
Redeemed in the end by getting the right call in the final two series (Rangers, Devils), I still had a dismal 3-5 prediction record in round 1. Of course it could have been 1-7. For round two, I'm taking the Rangers (Caps always lose round 2), Philadelphia, Nashville, Los Angeles (tough call, Quick makes the difference).
Major players on their way out: Malkin, Pit, 169 picks; Crosby, Pit, 152; H.Sedin, Van, 128; Edler, Van, 71; Letang, Pit, 63; Fleury, Pit, 61; Chara, Bos, 57; Seguin, Bos, 51; Kesler, Van, 48; Datsyuk, Det, 48; D.Sedin, Van, 42; Neal, Pit, 36; Bergeron, Pit, 36; Hossa, Chi, 32; Zetterberg, Det, 31; Keith, Chi, 28; Thomas, Bos, 26; Luongo, Van, 25.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Claude Giroux |
PHI |
14 |
28 |
Jordan Staal |
PIT |
9 |
1 |
Daniel Briere |
PHI |
8 |
2 |
Andy McDonald |
STL |
8 |
8 |
Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
8 |
152 |
Evgeni Malkin |
PIT |
8 |
169 |
Patrik Berglund |
STL |
7 |
0 |
Jakub Voracek |
PHI |
7 |
1 |
Jaromir Jagr |
PHI |
7 |
3 |
8 players |
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6 |
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Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Keith Yandle |
PHO |
5 |
1 |
Brian Campbell |
FLA |
5 |
3 |
Kris Letang |
PIT |
5 |
63 |
7 players |
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4 |
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Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Martin Brodeur |
NJD |
11 |
4 |
Mike Smith |
PHO |
10 |
1 |
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Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
New York R |
239 |
37 |
Nashville |
153 |
8 |
St. Louis |
131 |
11 |
New Jersey |
85 |
3 |
Philadelphia |
66 |
8 |
Washington |
35 |
3 |
Los Angeles |
31 |
2 |
Phoenix |
5 |
0 |
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OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
Pittsburgh |
491 |
101 |
Vancouver |
356 |
34 |
Boston |
214 |
17 |
Chicago |
117 |
5 |
Detroit |
117 |
3 |
Ottawa |
28 |
1 |
San Jose |
24 |
0 |
Florida |
5 |
0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Brodeur would get another 11 points while Shea Weber would only get 2.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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