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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Claude Giroux
Claude Giroux had superstar numbers playing against the Penguins' superstars.

Round 1 Analysis
Devastating and unfathomed first-round upsets will be the story of this pool. Futility records have been smashed, and many people are left watching the playoffs with no picks to cheer. An astonishing 26 entries are left with no picks after round 1, something only 11 entries have done in total over the first 13 seasons of the pool! (3 in 2003; 2 in '06, '07, '08; 1 in '10 and '02). Only two poolies are left unscathed and only 10 have more than six picks remaining. This leaves plenty of opportunity for some poolies to make a big jump up the standings but for most, they will be watching their rank drop slowly and surely.

Pool takes record first-round losses
We have seen favourites go down before, but never quite so many. Pittsburgh's elimination was second only to Washington's 2010 flameout in terms of biggest pool favourites - by player picks. But the Pens were far and away the heaviest Cup favourite to fall, with over 43% of Cup picks, destroying the Capitals' 2010 record of 31%.

Add Vancouver to the mix (top-10 futility in its own right), and 2012 smashed the record for first-round futility. 64% of the pool's picks are gone after round 1 (well above 2003's record 58.5%) and 69% of Cup picks - only the second time the pool has broken 50% for that measure. This comes only one year after we set a record for fewest picks eliminated in round one.

Scarier still was the real possibility that New York and New Jersey could have been knocked out in game 7 - this would have raised these numbers to 78% of player picks and 86% of Cup picks.

So let's revisit our Worst First-Round Upsets chart from 2010:

Player Picks Lost R1, One TeamCup Picks Lost R1, One Team
YearTot.PicksTeamLostPercentage
(max 33.33)
20101773Washington44425.04
20122097Pittsburgh49123.41
2003603Detroit13322.06
2003603Colorado13121.72
2006936Detroit19420.73
20091665San Jose30218.14
2000297St. Louis5217.51
20122097Vancouver35616.97
1998144New Jersey2215.28
1999162New Jersey2213.58
YearEntriesTeamLostPercentage
 
2012233Pittsburgh10143.35
2010197Washington6130.96
2009185San Jose5529.73
2006104Detroit2725.96
200367Detroit1725.37
200367Colorado1623.88
200367Toronto1522.39
199816New Jersey318.75
200033St. Louis618.18
2012233Vancouver3414.59
Worst first-round upsets in pool history (top 10)

Player Picks Lost R1, YearCup Picks Lost R1, Year
YearEntriesTot.PicksLostPercentage
20122332097135264.47
20036760335358.54
1998161447250.00
200610493644447.44
2010197177368538.64
20023935111031.34
2000332979030.30
200410297824927.12
2009185166543125.89
1999181623924.07
2008189170138722.75
2007132118823619.87
2001403606417.78
2011205184527114.69
YearEntriesLostPercentage
2003674871.64
201223316169.10
20061044644.23
20101978442.64
20091856535.14
199816531.25
200033721.21
20081893619.05
20041021817.65
20071322115.91
200239615.38
199918211.11
2011205136.34
20014012.50
First round performance by year

First round lead
Congratulations to Frank DiGirolomo and Jason Feltz on their joint first round lead with 54 points. This nearly set a record low for first-round leaders (2007 - 53 pts) despite the 80's style scores in the Pitt-Philly series. Frank held the lead or a share of it since day six (ten days) with Jason always not far behind. However they enter round 2 having lost most of their picks and are being chased by four entries with six or seven picks left.

Given that most entries have lost half or more of their picks, we are likely to see a lot of movement in the standings as the new pool contenders try to take advantage. See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Unscathed! Smart or crazy?
Only two poolies have managed to emerge from round 1 with all of their picks: James Smith, with a very strong looking Philly-Nashville-St.Louis card, and Judah Gould, projected to rise from 206th to 57th with the Rangers-Nashville-Devils/Blues. Both could yet stay intact into round three. James and Judah may have been crazy to pick Nashville and not Pittsburgh and Vancouver but they are looking awfully smart now.

Giroux stakes huge lead
Claude Giroux had a monstrous performance with 14 points in round one, leading the league by a wide margin. With 28 picks he can carry a decent number of poolies up the standings if he continues his pace. The nearest active player is St. Louis' Andy McDonald (8 picks) with 8 points along with a group of Flyers teammates including Daniel Briere (2 picks). While the favourite players at every position were knocked out (Malkin, Crosby, H.Sedin, Seguin, Edler, Letang, Fleury), most of the remaining top performers will benefit a few select entries.

Brodeur's resurgence
Martin Brodeur (4 picks) is by far the goalie taken the most in pool history and it has paid off some years, but more recently he has delivered his share of playoff busts. This year after a one-season absence from the playoffs, the Devils first round victory included a shutout and two assists by the legendary goalie, giving him 11 points to lead all goalies and proving that he's back... for this pool at least.

Only two goalie favourites remain in action - Henrik Lundqvist (59 picks) and Pekka Rinne (30 picks) while three others were knocked out.

Tough call for this year's Biggest Bust
The biggest bust usually gets picked for their own futility rather than circumstances beyond their control. That's why it's a difficult choice this year. Both Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa had no points, with 25 and 32 picks respectively. Typically it would go to the one with more picks but in this case we're giving the dubious distinction to Luongo. Hossa was injured; Luongo was pulled even though he played well. But goalies are an important pick and Luongo was a bigger let-down as a result. Next year he can play for a team with no playoff hopes: like Toronto!

Biggest busts over the years: 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight Award
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. The Hindsight Award this year goes to Blair Phillips for being the only one to pick Phoenix goalie Mike Smith, who has 10 points and counting going into round 2. Honourable mentions to Sasha Bloedow, who took Jordan Staal (9 points, out) and to Amy van Steendelaar who's Jakob Voracek pick is still going strong (7 points after round 1).

Round 2 predictions
Redeemed in the end by getting the right call in the final two series (Rangers, Devils), I still had a dismal 3-5 prediction record in round 1. Of course it could have been 1-7. For round two, I'm taking the Rangers (Caps always lose round 2), Philadelphia, Nashville, Los Angeles (tough call, Quick makes the difference).

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Malkin, Pit, 169 picks; Crosby, Pit, 152; H.Sedin, Van, 128; Edler, Van, 71; Letang, Pit, 63; Fleury, Pit, 61; Chara, Bos, 57; Seguin, Bos, 51; Kesler, Van, 48; Datsyuk, Det, 48; D.Sedin, Van, 42; Neal, Pit, 36; Bergeron, Pit, 36; Hossa, Chi, 32; Zetterberg, Det, 31; Keith, Chi, 28; Thomas, Bos, 26; Luongo, Van, 25.

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Claude Giroux PHI 14 28
Jordan Staal PIT 9 1
Daniel Briere PHI 8 2
Andy McDonald STL 8 8
Sidney Crosby PIT 8 152
Evgeni Malkin PIT 8 169
Patrik Berglund STL 7 0
Jakub Voracek PHI 7 1
Jaromir Jagr PHI 7 3
8 players 6
Defense Team Pts Picks
Keith Yandle PHO 5 1
Brian Campbell FLA 5 3
Kris Letang PIT 5 63
7 players   4  
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Martin Brodeur NJD 11 4
Mike Smith PHO 10 1
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups 
New York R 239 37
Nashville 153 8
St. Louis 131 11
New Jersey 85 3
Philadelphia 66 8
Washington 35 3
Los Angeles 31 2
Phoenix 5 0
OUT Picks Cups
Pittsburgh 491 101
Vancouver 356 34
Boston 214 17
Chicago 117 5
Detroit 117 3
Ottawa 28 1
San Jose 24 0
Florida 5 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Brodeur would get another 11 points while Shea Weber would only get 2.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
51Juan Arango89493918.4%VAN
211Janine Pileggi8946136.5%LAK
53Sam Moncada874921122.4%STL
424Eli Hammerman8544136.8%PHI
515Amy van Steendelaar8443124.7%NYR
116Carl Pledger834841327.1%PHI
17Jason Feltz825452648.1%PIT
687James Smith8241000.0%PHI
19Frank DiGirolomo805462851.9%NYR
429Evan Hoey80444818.2%DET
39Norrin Ripsman805132243.1%NYR
319Douglas Wilkinson804531022.2%VAN
413Stephen Craig795032142.0%NJD
6814Jordan Ford76412614.6%STL
4215Mark Coatsworth744431431.8%BOS
516Aaron Vedder734952551.0%STL
8316Mike Siegler73403717.5%VAN
5916Richard Gretzinger734221126.2%NYR
1119Blair Phillips724842450.0%PIT
12919Terry Hoey7237125.4%NYR
5921Jeff Bangs714251331.0%DET
2122Becke Gainforth704632247.8%NYR
8322Ethan Craig704031025.0%STL
6824Della Santin694151331.7%NYR
8324Steve Feltz694031127.5%PHI
15124Jeff Brinston6935112.9%WSH
527Brent Morris684963061.2%VAN
1527James Beder684742655.3%NYR
3127Stuart Klein684532248.9%PIT
6830Brandon Kubis674161536.6%NYR
1530Oliver Porebski674752757.4%NYR
8332Marilyn Beaulieu664061435.0%DET
3132Mouli Ramani664542453.3%NYR
6832Shane Kozlowich664141639.0%NYR
4232Sean Smith664432250.0%PIT
1136James McAndrew654863164.6%PIT
8336Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff654051537.5%VAN
5136Julian Pessole654332148.8%NYR
5936Keith Chappell654231945.2%PIT
1540David Hart644763063.8%PIT
1540Mike Melanson644763063.8%NYR
1540Siyeon Lee644763063.8%NYR
5140John Upper644332251.2%NYR
544Jerry Rynda634983571.4%PIT
2144Joseph Roul634662963.0%NYR
2144Stefano Pileggi634662963.0%NYR
2144Don Colangelo634662963.0%PIT
2144Shane Davey634662963.0%NYR
2144Brendan Browne634662963.0%NYR
2144Tracy Smith634662963.0%NYR
2144Blair Miller634662963.0%VAN
5944Julian Vardy634262150.0%PHI
4244Laurena Clark634452556.8%VAN
12944Shannon Brewster633751129.7%VAN
5944Sean Sargent634232150.0%NSH
15144Brad Hotson63353720.0%PHI
3157Ryan Chirnomas624572862.2%VAN
3157Kyle Hogg624562862.2%NYR
3157Scott Poitras624562862.2%NYR
3157Len Neglia624552862.2%VAN
5157Nathan Kress624342455.8%PIT
5957Patrick Bouchard624232252.4%PIT
10057Sophie Wexler623931641.0%NYR
17257Brendon Pretty62343617.6%LAK
20657Judah Gould6231000.0%NSH
6866Marco Pazzano614142151.2%PIT
567Cooper Levens604973877.6%STL
17267Jim Dart60343823.5%NYR
1569Harris Beder594763574.5%BOS
3169Andy Hotson594563168.9%PIT
3169Dustin Hall594563168.9%NYR
4269Brandon Poitras594462965.9%CHI
4269Andrew Ryan594462965.9%PIT
5969Kevin Hinch594262559.5%NYR
6869Rachelle Gaudet594162356.1%NJD
13869Colin Laird593661336.1%PHI
8369Kevin Boomer594032152.5%PIT
8378Shawn Robichaud584032255.0%PIT
8378Joel Borgida584032255.0%PIT
3180Whitt Newbauer574573373.3%NYR
5180Paul Smits574362967.4%PIT
5180Dennis Clayton574362967.4%PIT
8380Dan Sullivan574062357.5%PIT
6880Ruth Beder574152561.0%PIT
8380Sascha Bloedow574052357.5%STL
17280Jack Moncada573431132.4%NYR
3187Samara McAdam564563475.6%BOS
6887Laura Tackaberry564152663.4%VAN
10087Martha Gill563932256.4%PIT
19487David Loop56323825.0%NSH
18291Alexander Bondarenko553361133.3%VAN
8391Jeff Drisdelle554052562.5%PIT
21493Paula Santin54303620.0%PHI
1194Adam Bloedow534884389.6%BOS
6894Dan Salerno534162970.7%STL
8394Jamie Robichaud534062767.5%VAN
13894George Smith533661952.8%NYR
13894Kevin Hoey533661952.8%NYR
10094Sam Fielding533952564.1%NSH
21894Darlene Boitson53293517.2%STL
68101Dave Spedding524163073.2%PIT
68101Aron Slipacoff524163073.2%BOS
113101Jake Poitras523862463.2%NYR
138101Luke McEachnie523642055.6%PIT
100105Max Porebski513972769.2%NYR
68105Peter Holland514163175.6%BOS
83105Peter Clark514062972.5%PIT
83105Ryan Thompson514062972.5%PIT
206105Einar Gainforth-Beech513161135.5%NJD
172105Allan Boynton513441750.0%BOS
214105Dryden Craig51303930.0%NYR
100112Maxwell Brewster503962871.8%PIT
100112Roger Brouard503962871.8%PIT
100112Dan Leggieri503962871.8%VAN
172112Brendan Hoey503461852.9%NYR
182112Connor Brewster503361648.5%NYR
206112David Valenti503161238.7%VAN
113112Mohan Krishnamoorthy503852668.4%PIT
194112Paul Groba503231443.8%BOS
68120Shane Firth494173380.5%PIT
83120Ray Amarsi494063177.5%PIT
100120David Minuk493962974.4%VAN
113120Frank Iusi493862771.1%VAN
113120Tommy Juranka493862771.1%VAN
100120Vincent Galante493952974.4%PIT
83126Alex Barron484073280.0%PIT
68126Alison Sargent484163482.9%BOS
113126Frank Pileggi483862873.7%PIT
113126Graham Haines483862873.7%VAN
113126Carol Phillips483862873.7%PIT
113126Mitch Wexler483862873.7%PIT
129126Nick Mechar483752670.3%NSH
129126Pasqi Porco483752670.3%PIT
42134Fraser Macdonald474484193.2%PIT
113134Avery Spedding473862976.3%PIT
113134Deric Chow473862976.3%STL
206134Jamie Duggan473161548.4%BOS
182134Hanna-Marea Kennedy473341957.6%PIT
21139Patrick Gill4646946100.0%PIT
42139Dave Poitras464484295.5%PIT
51139Ken Shuter464384093.0%PIT
113139Brad MacDonald463873078.9%BOS
113139Shadd Dales463873078.9%VAN
113139Dwight Butler463863078.9%PIT
151139Pat Moncada463562468.6%PIT
151139Chris Vigna463552468.6%PIT
194139Karla Webster Gill463251856.3%VAN
228139George Crothers4624328.3%NSH
83149Marc Dupuis454083587.5%PIT
138149Todd Beaman453662775.0%PIT
138149Kara Spedding453662775.0%PIT
138149Chris McCluskey453662775.0%PIT
151149Paula Brinston453562571.4%WSH
151149Campbell Clark-Smith453562571.4%PIT
151149Carter Reed453562571.4%VAN
138149Rob Sutherland453652775.0%NSH
100157Jacqui Snow443983487.2%PIT
100157Mark Norman443983487.2%VAN
100157Mark Brewster443983487.2%PIT
100157Randy Stewart443973487.2%PIT
151157Ron Wener443572674.3%PIT
129157Brad Moulton443763081.1%PIT
194157Ryan Courville443252062.5%STL
51164Barrett Boitson4343943100.0%PIT
113164Samuel Wexler433883386.8%VAN
113164Tyler Robinson433873386.8%PIT
206164Kristoff Porebski433171961.3%CHI
129164Brett Kirkpatrick433763183.8%PIT
138164Marie Loop433662980.6%PIT
172164Leo Gaudet433462573.5%PIT
59171Russell Reed4242942100.0%BOS
59171Mel McNulty4242842100.0%PIT
129171Steven Kjellberg423773286.5%PIT
138171Pierre Gainforth-Beech423673083.3%PIT
138171David Schamma423673083.3%PIT
172171Steven Hawley423472676.5%VAN
151171Colin McSweeney423562880.0%PIT
129178Rob Phillips413773389.2%PIT
138178Scott Morgan413673186.1%PIT
182178Mike van Steendelaar413372575.8%PIT
151178Diego DeMarco413562982.9%PIT
172178Andrew Hamilton413462779.4%VAN
194178Peter Hogg413262371.9%PIT
218178Mathew Seemann412941758.6%BOS
151185Fred Slade403563085.7%STL
206185Brenden Kennedy403162271.0%BOS
218185Steve Lusk402961862.1%VAN
228185Ragulan Vathsalan40244833.3%NYR
113189Sanjay Talwar3838938100.0%PIT
151189Joy Smith383583291.4%PIT
151189Beth Foster383583291.4%PIT
151189Lee Beech383563291.4%PIT
194189Karen Savoie383262681.3%PIT
206189Ava McAdam-Beder383162477.4%PIT
129195Ian Winsor3737937100.0%VAN
172195Avie Flaherty373483191.2%PIT
182195Peter Seemann373372987.9%PIT
228195Jeff Jacobs372461145.8%WSH
138199Scott Strachan3636936100.0%PIT
151199Adam Jamieson363583497.1%PIT
151201Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff3535935100.0%PIT
151201Jay Dart3535935100.0%PIT
151201Mike De Petrillo3535935100.0%PIT
151201Al Champsi3535935100.0%BOS
151201Azra Champsi3535935100.0%PIT
151201Mike Newbauer3535935100.0%PIT
182201Gabe Pretto353383193.9%PIT
194201Alvin Gainforth353282990.6%PIT
206201Steve Sealy353182787.1%PIT
172210Craig Laird3434934100.0%CHI
182210Rohit Chandra343383297.0%PIT
194210Aaron Pretto343273093.8%PIT
223210Tim Smith342872278.6%CHI
182214Martin Lefebvre3333933100.0%PIT
182214Rhonda Morris3333933100.0%VAN
182214Nolan Sarner3333933100.0%PIT
182214Chris Smith3333933100.0%BOS
182214Ryan Slack3333933100.0%PIT
226214Cheryl Wallace332561768.0%VAN
194220Laura Hoffer3232932100.0%VAN
194220Alan Eng3232932100.0%PIT
194220Sharon Boitson3232932100.0%PIT
194220Jerry Daleez3232932100.0%PIT
218224Noah Bloedow312982793.1%VAN
214225Denis Melanson3030930100.0%PIT
214225Richard Tattersall3030930100.0%VAN
224225Aaron Allard302782488.9%PIT
233225Colin Kennedy30195842.1%NSH
218229Stephanie Gawur2929929100.0%CHI
228229Ted Kennedy292481979.2%VAN
224229David Van Kula292772592.6%PIT
232232Ron Ego272161571.4%OTT
226233Cyril Beaman2525925100.0%BOS







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