Round 3 Analysis

Ilya Kovalchuk leads all forwards and is the most-picked remaining player.

Every few years there are upsets that drive the character of the NHL playoffs, and this year it seemed to be every single series. No favourites were safe except for the Rangers, who ultimately fell in the third round anyway. This unprecedented attrition leaves us with just 116 picks over 233 entries. 94.5% of picks are eliminated, a new futility record entering the final round, edging out 2003 (94.0%). 179 of 233 entries have no picks remaining, 76.8% (by far a new record).

The futility, however, did not diminish what has still been a very close and competitive pool - it only meant fewer people in the middle of the pack could hold on. The leader has alternated most days through the end of round three, even with Stephen Craig being on top at the conclusion of each round and having the best shot to win. Now entering the final round, we are down to a select few contenders.

The contenders
In quite a different circumstance from last year when there were many scenarios for numerous contenders, this year there are only six people with a chance to grab the money positions in the top three spots. And there are only three people with a chance to win the big prize: Stephen Craig, Janine Webster, and Brendon Pretty.

If New Jersey wins: Current leader Stephen Craig has a virtual lock on the top prize if the Devils win. He starts in first, is the only one with six remaining players, and would get the ten point Cup bonus to boot. So the race is for second and third. Blair Phillips starts with a four point lead over third and a five point money buffer which looks to increase unless Parise is the difference maker or if Quick has a shutout along the way in a losing cause. Terry Hoey has two players to Sophie Wexler's three and a one point lead for third, but his two are Devils to Sophie's Kings. Janine Webster needs Quick to get shutouts. But the best chance for spoiler is Brendon Pretty who has five players remaining and will move up by getting points from both teams.

If Los Angeles wins: Janine Webster currently holds the lead including the Cup bonus, and will need to hang on without any contributions from Devils players. Brendon Pretty is two points back but can likely surpass Janine. The question is whether Stephen Craig - who starts tied with Brendon and two back from Janine - can cash in on having six players. He has Dustin Brown but no Jonathan Quick, and this is the LA win scenario. Stephen needs a ten-point buffer to offset the LA cup bonus and the projections (below) suggest it is possible. Blair Phillips and Sophie Wexler have outside chances at best and would likely not be cashing in.

New Jersey win				Los Angeles win
Stephen Craig	103 (+10)	Brodeur,Kovalchuk,Elias,Brown,Williams,Doughty		Janine Webster	95 (+10)	Quick,Kopitar,Richards
Blair Phillips	102	Kovalchuk,Kopitar,Richards,Carter		Brendon Pretty	93 (+10)	Quick,Brown,Richards,Kovalchuk,Parise
Terry Hoey	98	Kovalchuk,Parise		Stephen Craig	103	Brown,Williams,Doughty,Brodeur,Kovalchuk,Elias
Sophie Wexler	97	Kopitar,Richards,Carter		Blair Phillips	102	Kopitar,Richards,Carter,Kovalchuk
Janine Webster	95	Quick,Kopitar,Richards		Terry Hoey	98	Kovalchuk,Parise
Brendon Pretty	93	Kovalchuk,Parise,Quick,Brown,Richards		Sophie Wexler	97	Kopitar,Richards,Carter

As go the goalies
Goaltending is often the most important pick of the pool, and can make the difference between winning and losing. In low-scoring playoff years such as this one (despite a few scoring outbursts in early games) the goalies are often at the top of the points charts. This year the goalies for the four final teams are the top four pool producers so it will come as no surprise that the only three people who can win the pool, are the only three with either Martin Brodeur or Jon Quick. A shutout by either goalie could tip the balance in the final result.

Kovalchuk, Brown lead the offence
New Jersey's Ilya Kovalchuk has taken over the playoff points lead as he and Zach Parise lead the charge for the Devils. Kovalchuk is also the most popular remaining pick, on 48 entries while Parise is second with 21. The Kings' leader with 8 picks is Anze Kopitar while Dustin Brown - the team points leader and challenger to Kovalchuk overall - has 3. Meanwhile there are only seven total remaining defense picks and seven goalie picks.

Brodeur sets one for the ages
Despite Martin Brodeur's age and his reduced performance in the past few years, he is back in hall of fame form this season. Always a goalie able to move the puck, he has set what appears to be an NHL record for most assists by a netminder in the playoffs, with four. (see chart)

Mitch's prediction
Wrongly calling a Rangers win puts my record down to 6-8 so I'm guaranteed a losing record this year. So I'll go with Los Angeles to win over New Jersey, to complete a great story after they beat all three top seeds in the west as the #8 seed.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Ragulan Vathsalan	77 (177,100)		Brendon Pretty	30
Kristoff Porebski	53 (169,116)		Terry Hoey	29
Jamie Duggan	53 (134,81)		Sophie Wexler	28
Einar Gainforth-Beech	49 (134,85)		Blair Phillips	25
Brendan Hoey	49 (134,85)		Stephen Craig	25
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
James Smith	52 (29,81)		87 People with:	0
Mike Siegler	46 (63,109)
Jordan Ford	38 (31,69)
Aaron Vedder	36 (37,73)
Brad Hotson	36 (83,119)
Harris Beder	36 (83,119)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Ilya Kovalchuk NJD 18 42 Claude Giroux PHI 17 28 Dustin Brown LOS 16 3 Anze Kopitar LOS 15 8 Brad Richards NYR 15 64 Zach Parise NJD 14 21 Daniel Briere PHI 13 2 Travis Zajac NJD 12 0 Adam Henrique NJD 11 0 Justin Williams LOS 11 1 Mike Richards LOS 11 7 Marian Gaborik NYR 11 81	Defense Team Pts Picks Daniel Girardi NYR 12 0 Bryce Salvador NJD 11 0 Drew Doughty LOS 10 5 Michael Del Zotto NYR 10 20 Keith Yandle PHO 9 1 Goalies Team Pts Picks Mike Smith PHO 25 1 Henrik Lundqvist NYR 25 59 Jon Quick LOS 22 3 Martin Brodeur NJD 21 4
Teams
IN Picks Cups New Jersey 85 3 Los Angeles 31 2	OUT Picks Cups New York 239 37 Phoenix 5 0

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4, not including the Cup winner bonus. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd4 Projection
4	1	1	1	Stephen Craig	103	6	NJD	130
172	37	8	2	Brendon Pretty	93	5	LAK	120
11	3	2	3	Blair Phillips	102	4	PIT	119
21	5	6	4	Janine Pileggi	95	3	LAK	111
129	13	3	5	Terry Hoey	98	2	NYR	108
100	13	4	5	Sophie Wexler	97	3	NYR	108
5	3	5	7	Sam Moncada	96	1	STL	102
206	9	9	8	Judah Gould	91	2	NSH	101
31	7	6	9	Stuart Klein	95	1	PIT	100
68	20	11	10	Shane Kozlowich	90	1	NYR	96
42	11	14	10	Eli Hammerman	86	2	PHI	96
5	23	13	12	Brent Morris	88	1	VAN	94
138	63	46	13	Luke McEachnie	76	4	PIT	93
51	23	36	14	Nathan Kress	79	3	PIT	92
5	5	9	15	Juan Arango	91	0	VAN	91
42	61	46	15	Andrew Ryan	76	3	PIT	91
83	63	55	15	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	74	3	VAN	91
3	7	11	18	Norrin Ripsman	90	0	NYR	90
100	31	43	19	Martha Gill	77	3	PIT	89
83	37	46	20	Kevin Boomer	76	3	PIT	88
15	13	14	21	James Beder	86	0	NYR	86
21	13	14	21	Becke Gainforth	86	0	NYR	86
31	18	17	23	Douglas Wilkinson	85	0	VAN	85
51	1	17	23	Amy van Steendelaar	85	0	NYR	85
42	20	19	25	Sean Smith	84	0	PIT	84
42	20	19	25	Evan Hoey	84	0	DET	84
15	23	21	27	Oliver Porebski	83	0	NYR	83
51	23	21	27	Julian Pessole	83	0	NYR	83
68	72	73	27	Rachelle Gaudet	68	3	NJD	83
1	13	23	30	Jason Feltz	82	0	PIT	82
68	55	58	30	Marco Pazzano	72	2	PIT	82
83	76	69	30	Peter Clark	69	3	PIT	82
1	18	24	33	Frank DiGirolomo	81	0	NYR	81
15	31	24	33	David Hart	81	0	PIT	81
15	31	24	33	Siyeon Lee	81	0	NYR	81
15	31	24	33	Mike Melanson	81	0	NYR	81
59	58	62	33	Keith Chappell	71	2	PIT	81
206	134	85	33	Einar Gainforth-Beech	64	3	NJD	81
21	37	28	39	Blair Miller	80	0	VAN	80
21	37	28	39	Shane Davey	80	0	NYR	80
21	37	28	39	Don Colangelo	80	0	PIT	80
21	37	28	39	Brendan Browne	80	0	NYR	80
21	37	28	39	Stefano Pileggi	80	0	NYR	80
21	37	28	39	Tracy Smith	80	0	NYR	80
21	37	28	39	Joseph Roul	80	0	NYR	80
51	29	28	39	John Upper	80	0	NYR	80
31	31	36	47	Mouli Ramani	79	0	NYR	79
31	48	36	47	Scott Poitras	79	0	NYR	79
42	48	36	47	Laurena Clark	79	0	VAN	79
42	9	36	47	Mark Coatsworth	79	0	BOS	79
59	37	36	47	Richard Gretzinger	79	0	NYR	79
31	48	36	47	Kyle Hogg	79	0	NYR	79
100	90	80	53	Maxwell Brewster	66	3	PIT	78
31	48	43	54	Dustin Hall	77	0	NYR	77
59	11	43	54	Sean Sargent	77	0	NSH	77
113	98	81	54	Tommy Juranka	65	3	VAN	77
59	58	46	57	Kevin Hinch	76	0	NYR	76
11	55	46	57	James McAndrew	76	0	PIT	76
172	105	85	57	Allan Boynton	64	3	BOS	76
194	105	85	57	Paul Groba	64	3	BOS	76
83	23	51	61	Joel Borgida	75	0	PIT	75
151	58	51	61	Jeff Brinston	75	0	WSH	75
51	55	51	61	Dennis Clayton	75	0	PIT	75
83	23	51	61	Shawn Robichaud	75	0	PIT	75
42	90	62	61	Brandon Poitras	71	1	CHI	75
129	90	81	61	Pasqi Porco	65	2	PIT	75
11	48	55	67	Carl Pledger	74	0	PHI	74
83	63	55	67	Dan Sullivan	74	0	PIT	74
59	48	73	67	Patrick Bouchard	68	1	PIT	74
151	124	94	67	Pat Moncada	62	3	PIT	74
31	54	78	71	Len Neglia	67	1	VAN	73
194	128	96	71	Karla Webster Gill	61	3	VAN	73
214	128	96	71	Paula Santin	61	3	PHI	73
68	61	58	74	Della Santin	72	0	NYR	72
194	76	58	74	David Loop	72	0	NSH	72
172	76	58	74	Jim Dart	72	0	NYR	72
172	105	62	77	Jack Moncada	71	0	NYR	71
228	143	100	77	George Crothers	59	3	NSH	71
31	63	65	79	Andy Hotson	70	0	PIT	70
138	90	65	79	Kevin Hoey	70	0	NYR	70
138	90	65	79	George Smith	70	0	NYR	70
113	76	65	79	Jake Poitras	70	0	NYR	70
31	72	69	83	Whitt Newbauer	69	0	NYR	69
68	72	69	83	Laura Tackaberry	69	0	VAN	69
68	31	69	83	Jordan Ford	69	0	STL	69
59	98	73	86	Jeff Bangs	68	0	DET	68
68	76	73	86	Brandon Kubis	68	0	NYR	68
5	37	73	86	Aaron Vedder	68	0	STL	68
68	72	94	86	Ruth Beder	62	1	PIT	68
151	143	105	86	Ron Wener	58	2	PIT	68
182	115	78	91	Connor Brewster	67	0	NYR	67
11	76	96	91	Adam Bloedow	61	1	BOS	67
100	105	105	93	David Minuk	58	2	VAN	66
206	134	81	94	Jamie Duggan	65	0	BOS	65
68	29	81	94	James Smith	65	0	PHI	65
113	63	85	96	Frank Pileggi	64	0	PIT	64
113	63	85	96	Mitch Wexler	64	0	PIT	64
214	63	85	96	Dryden Craig	64	0	NYR	64
113	63	85	96	Graham Haines	64	0	VAN	64
172	134	85	96	Brendan Hoey	64	0	NYR	64
129	98	105	96	Shannon Brewster	58	1	VAN	64
113	98	105	96	Frank Iusi	58	1	VAN	64
100	115	93	103	Max Porebski	63	0	NYR	63
100	105	109	103	Vincent Galante	57	1	PIT	63
228	177	100	105	Ragulan Vathsalan	59	1	NYR	62
68	115	112	105	Shane Firth	56	1	PIT	62
138	134	119	105	Todd Beaman	54	2	PIT	62
83	76	99	108	Ryan Thompson	60	0	PIT	60
83	83	100	109	Jamie Robichaud	59	0	VAN	59
100	83	100	109	Roger Brouard	59	0	PIT	59
100	83	100	109	Dan Leggieri	59	0	VAN	59
138	158	124	109	Scott Morgan	53	1	PIT	59
83	134	124	109	Alex Barron	53	1	PIT	59
100	143	130	114	Mark Brewster	52	1	PIT	58
100	143	130	114	Mark Norman	52	1	VAN	58
113	105	109	116	Avery Spedding	57	0	PIT	57
83	63	109	116	Mike Siegler	57	0	VAN	57
113	90	112	118	Dwight Butler	56	0	PIT	56
113	105	112	118	Shadd Dales	56	0	VAN	56
113	90	112	118	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	56	0	PIT	56
100	83	116	121	Sam Fielding	55	0	NSH	55
83	83	116	121	Ray Amarsi	55	0	PIT	55
206	169	116	121	Kristoff Porebski	55	0	CHI	55
223	190	152	121	Tim Smith	47	2	CHI	55
113	105	119	125	Tyler Robinson	54	0	PIT	54
15	83	119	125	Harris Beder	54	0	BOS	54
83	115	119	125	Jeff Drisdelle	54	0	PIT	54
151	83	119	125	Brad Hotson	54	0	PHI	54
5	90	124	129	Cooper Levens	53	0	STL	53
129	98	124	129	Nick Mechar	53	0	NSH	53
129	115	124	129	Steven Kjellberg	53	0	PIT	53
194	128	124	129	Ryan Courville	53	0	STL	53
83	98	130	133	Ethan Craig	52	0	STL	52
42	105	130	133	Fraser Macdonald	52	0	PIT	52
172	134	130	133	Steven Hawley	52	0	VAN	52
5	98	130	133	Jerry Rynda	52	0	PIT	52
138	115	136	137	Rob Sutherland	51	0	NSH	51
151	134	136	137	Chris Vigna	51	0	PIT	51
83	105	136	137	Steve Feltz	51	0	PHI	51
83	143	139	140	Marc Dupuis	50	0	PIT	50
31	115	139	140	Ryan Chirnomas	50	0	VAN	50
68	115	139	140	Peter Holland	50	0	BOS	50
113	143	139	140	Brad MacDonald	50	0	BOS	50
59	115	139	140	Julian Vardy	50	0	PHI	50
68	124	144	145	Dave Spedding	49	0	PIT	49
100	152	144	145	Jacqui Snow	49	0	PIT	49
68	124	144	145	Aron Slipacoff	49	0	BOS	49
218	128	144	145	Mathew Seemann	49	0	BOS	49
31	124	144	145	Samara McAdam	49	0	BOS	49
138	158	149	150	Chris McCluskey	48	0	PIT	48
129	128	149	150	Brett Kirkpatrick	48	0	PIT	48
113	128	149	150	Carol Phillips	48	0	PIT	48
51	134	152	153	Paul Smits	47	0	PIT	47
194	162	152	153	Peter Hogg	47	0	PIT	47
83	134	152	153	Marilyn Beaulieu	47	0	DET	47
206	197	175	153	Steve Sealy	42	1	PIT	47
206	169	156	157	Brenden Kennedy	46	0	BOS	46
21	143	156	157	Patrick Gill	46	0	PIT	46
59	143	156	157	Mel McNulty	46	0	PIT	46
68	143	156	157	Alison Sargent	46	0	BOS	46
51	152	160	161	Ken Shuter	45	0	PIT	45
42	152	160	161	Dave Poitras	45	0	PIT	45
68	152	160	161	Dan Salerno	45	0	STL	45
151	152	160	161	Carter Reed	45	0	VAN	45
151	152	160	161	Campbell Clark-Smith	45	0	PIT	45
83	158	165	166	Sascha Bloedow	44	0	STL	44
151	158	165	166	Paula Brinston	44	0	WSH	44
182	184	165	166	Mike van Steendelaar	44	0	PIT	44
151	177	175	166	Diego DeMarco	42	1	PIT	44
138	162	168	170	David Schamma	43	0	PIT	43
138	162	168	170	Kara Spedding	43	0	PIT	43
51	162	168	170	Barrett Boitson	43	0	PIT	43
218	162	168	170	Darlene Boitson	43	0	STL	43
151	169	168	170	Beth Foster	43	0	PIT	43
182	162	168	170	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	43	0	PIT	43
138	162	168	170	Colin Laird	43	0	PHI	43
151	169	175	177	Colin McSweeney	42	0	PIT	42
172	177	175	177	Avie Flaherty	42	0	PIT	42
100	169	175	177	Randy Stewart	42	0	PIT	42
59	169	175	177	Russell Reed	42	0	BOS	42
129	169	175	177	Brad Moulton	42	0	PIT	42
113	169	175	177	Samuel Wexler	42	0	VAN	42
206	184	185	177	David Valenti	40	1	VAN	42
182	177	183	184	Alexander Bondarenko	41	0	VAN	41
138	177	183	184	Marie Loop	41	0	PIT	41
113	182	185	186	Deric Chow	40	0	STL	40
151	182	185	186	Fred Slade	40	0	STL	40
129	184	188	188	Rob Phillips	39	0	PIT	39
151	184	188	188	Lee Beech	39	0	PIT	39
218	184	188	188	Steve Lusk	39	0	VAN	39
172	184	188	188	Andrew Hamilton	39	0	VAN	39
172	190	192	192	Leo Gaudet	38	0	PIT	38
151	190	192	192	Adam Jamieson	38	0	PIT	38
206	190	192	192	Ava McAdam-Beder	38	0	PIT	38
138	190	192	192	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	38	0	PIT	38
113	190	192	192	Sanjay Talwar	38	0	PIT	38
182	190	192	192	Peter Seemann	38	0	PIT	38
194	197	198	198	Karen Savoie	37	0	PIT	37
151	197	198	198	Joy Smith	37	0	PIT	37
194	197	198	198	Aaron Pretto	37	0	PIT	37
129	197	198	198	Ian Winsor	37	0	VAN	37
224	226	212	198	David Van Kula	34	2	PIT	37
138	202	202	203	Scott Strachan	36	0	PIT	36
182	202	202	203	Rohit Chandra	36	0	PIT	36
151	204	204	205	Al Champsi	35	0	BOS	35
151	204	204	205	Azra Champsi	35	0	PIT	35
224	211	204	205	Aaron Allard	35	0	PIT	35
151	204	204	205	Mike De Petrillo	35	0	PIT	35
151	204	204	205	Jay Dart	35	0	PIT	35
228	204	204	205	Jeff Jacobs	35	0	WSH	35
151	204	204	205	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	35	0	PIT	35
151	204	204	205	Mike Newbauer	35	0	PIT	35
182	211	212	213	Gabe Pretto	34	0	PIT	34
226	211	212	213	Cheryl Wallace	34	0	VAN	34
233	211	212	213	Colin Kennedy	34	0	NSH	34
172	211	212	213	Craig Laird	34	0	CHI	34
194	211	212	213	Alvin Gainforth	34	0	PIT	34
182	217	218	218	Martin Lefebvre	33	0	PIT	33
182	217	218	218	Rhonda Morris	33	0	VAN	33
182	217	218	218	Nolan Sarner	33	0	PIT	33
182	217	218	218	Chris Smith	33	0	BOS	33
182	217	218	218	Ryan Slack	33	0	PIT	33
194	222	223	223	Laura Hoffer	32	0	VAN	32
194	222	223	223	Alan Eng	32	0	PIT	32
194	222	223	223	Jerry Daleez	32	0	PIT	32
194	222	223	223	Sharon Boitson	32	0	PIT	32
218	227	227	227	Noah Bloedow	30	0	VAN	30
214	227	227	227	Denis Melanson	30	0	PIT	30
214	227	227	227	Richard Tattersall	30	0	VAN	30
218	230	230	230	Stephanie Gawur	29	0	CHI	29
228	231	231	231	Ted Kennedy	28	0	VAN	28
232	232	232	232	Ron Ego	26	0	OTT	26
226	233	233	233	Cyril Beaman	25	0	BOS	25