Lord Stanley's Pool 2013 - Round 1 Analysis

After the 2012 pool when most of the pool was eliminated in the first round, it is a welcome change to have most of the pool intact for Round 2. In fact while the 2nd and 3rd seeds in both conferences went down, only Washington and Anaheim were among the top favourites (and Anaheim, in fact, had fewer Cup picks than many beneath them). The survival of Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles and the parity among remaining teams means that there will be plenty to watch in the second round.

In total 632 player picks and 42 Cup picks were eliminated in the first round. That translates to 28% of player picks and 17% of Cup picks, with both of those numbers being in the middle of the pack compared to other pool years.

First round lead
Congratulations to Samara McAdam on her first round lead with 60 points. Samara surged with 34 of these points in the last seven days, and held the lead for the last three. In contrast, Douglas Wilkinson, one of the initial leaders, had only 14 points over that same stretch. Samara can expect to stay on or near the leaderboard along with others who still have a full roster of nine players.

With most of the picks still in the game, the pool is far from over - though we will definitely see some swings as people who bet on Washington, Anaheim, and other losing teams lose ground. See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Unscathed or wiped out
In contrast to last year when only two of 233 entries did not lose a player in round 1, while 26 entries were completely wiped out (both futility records), this year we are back to normal levels. Only two entries were wiped out, while forty-two entries have survived round 1 unscathed (17%). The record for most unscathed entries was set two years ago, when 108 (53%) advanced with all 9 players.

Krejci and mates the offensive story of Round 1
David Krejci's 13 points to lead all skaters in playoff scoring, caught many off guard - just as Claude Giroux did last year. However it has not translated into much impact in the pool thus far. Of Krejci's 6 picks, only two are in the top 50 and one, Alan Eng is in the top 10. Krejci's Boston teammate Zdeno Chara (8 pts, 24 picks) is the top defenseman while other underappreciated Bruins, Milan Lucic and Nathan Horton, have surprisingly been among the offensive leaders.

Questions in goal
Parity in the goaltending picks this year has certainly saved a lot of people. With both Marc-Andre Fleury and Corey Crawford having 56 picks the spotlight is on them but there were question marks for goalies on nearly every team. Fleury and Crawford both had first round shutouts and their teams advanced but Fleury is now taking a back seat to Tomas Vokoun, leaving those 56 picks in limbo. In the end it was the the one goalie with no questions about his hold on the job - Rangers' Henrik Lundquist (24 picks) who surged to the top of the player stats with two straight shutouts at the end of Round 1.

Ovie busted some heads... gets Biggest Bust award
After Alex Ovechkin had 13 hits but only one shot on goal in Washington's losing game 7, he said that it's ok if he doesn't score, as long as the team wins. Well in this pool, it's not ok not to score, especially if the team doesn't win. Ovie's 2 points for 96 picks were the the worst investment in the pool this year. This is assuming Jonathan Toews can get on the board in round 2 (2 pts for 178 but still in the playoffs).

Biggest busts over the years: 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight Award
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. The Hindsight Award this year goes to Dave Quist for being the only one to pick Boston forward Milan Lucic, who has 9 points and counting going into round 2. Honourable mention goes to Brandon Kubis, who took Anaheim goalie Jonas Hiller - who also had 9 points but was eliminated. Other surprises include San Jose's Joe Pavelski (8 points, 2 picks), Boston's Nathan Horton (7 points, 2 picks) and of course scoring leader David Krejci (13 points, 6 picks). With all these players still alive, we may need to update this award next round.

Round 2 predictions
You get some right and some wrong, and I was right and wrong in equal measure in Round 1, for a 4-4 record. For round two, I'm taking the Penguins (though cheering for those pesky Sens), Chicago, Los Angeles, and... umm... not sure between Boston and Rangers... Well goaltending is key so I'll say Rangers.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Ovechkin, Was, 96 picks; Getzlaf, Ana, 55; Green, Was, 45; Subban, Mon, 40; Backstrom, Was, 35; Perry, Ana, 32; H.Sedin, Van, 31; Kessel, Tor, 25; D.Sedin, Van, 24.

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards	Team	Pts	Picks
David Krejci	BOS	13	6
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	11	121
Derick Brassard	NYR	9	0
Milan Lucic	BOS	9	1
Jarome Iginla	PIT	9	26
Sidney Crosby	PIT	9	115
Joe Pavelski	SAN	8	2
Logan Couture	SAN	8	13
Henrik Zetterberg	DET	8	18
4 players		7

Defense	Team	Pts	Picks
Zdeno Chara	BOS	8	24
Paul Martin	PIT	6	3
Cody Franson	TOR	6	3
Francois Beauchemin	ANA	6	19
Erik Karlsson	OTT	6	23
Kris Letang	PIT	6	113
Goalies	Team	Pts	Picks
Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	14	24
Jonas Hiller	ANA	9	1
Jonathan Quick	LOS	9	21
Corey Crawford	CHI	9	56

Teams

IN	Picks	Cups
Chicago	577	72
Pittsburgh	545	94
Los Angeles	136	9
Boston	95	11
NY Rangers	90	9
Detroit	61	5
Ottawa	44	2
San Jose	43	3

OUT	Picks	Cups
Washington	205	13
Anaheim	124	4
Toronto	90	0
Montreal	85	7
Vancouver	78	6
St. Louis	38	3
NY Islanders	11	0
Minnesota	1	0

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Brodeur would get another 11 points while Shea Weber would only get 2.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank	Proj. Rank	Name	R2 Projection	R1 Pts.	Lost	IMP	IMP%	Cup
1	1	Samara McAdam	120	60	0	0	0.0%	PIT
4	2	Rob Phillips	114	57	0	0	0.0%	PIT
4	2	Brandon Poitras	114	57	0	0	0.0%	PIT
4	4	Matt Morrison	112	57	1	2	3.5%	PIT
8	4	James Yanyk	112	56	0	0	0.0%	CHI
8	4	Blair Miller	112	56	0	0	0.0%	CHI
8	4	Shane Kozlowich	112	56	0	0	0.0%	NYR
8	4	Darlene Boitson	112	56	0	0	0.0%	PIT
8	4	Diego DeMarco	112	56	0	0	0.0%	PIT
8	4	Alan Eng	112	56	0	0	0.0%	PIT
17	11	Marie Loop	110	55	0	0	0.0%	CHI
17	11	Dave Spedding	110	55	0	0	0.0%	PIT
2	13	Tyler Robinson	108	58	2	8	13.8%	PIT
23	13	Jay Dart	108	54	0	0	0.0%	PIT
23	13	Andrea Phillips	108	54	0	0	0.0%	CHI
2	16	Jeff Hammond	106	58	2	10	17.2%	PIT
23	16	Thomas Cheyne Matheson	106	54	1	2	3.7%	LAK
34	16	Brendan Browne	106	53	0	0	0.0%	CHI
34	16	Aron Slipacoff	106	53	0	0	0.0%	PIT
34	16	Kara Spedding	106	53	0	0	0.0%	CHI
8	21	Scott Anson	104	56	2	8	14.3%	NYR
42	21	Judah Gould	104	52	0	0	0.0%	PIT
42	21	Jeff Lizotte	104	52	0	0	0.0%	PIT
42	21	David Loop	104	52	0	0	0.0%	PIT
34	25	Alvin Gainforth	103	53	1	3	5.7%	CHI
4	26	George Crothers	102	57	3	12	21.1%	CHI
17	26	Nolan Sarner	102	55	2	8	14.5%	PIT
23	26	Sophie Wexler	102	54	1	6	11.1%	LAK
42	26	Glenn Zyzanski	102	52	1	2	3.8%	PIT
52	26	Blair Phillips	102	51	0	0	0.0%	CHI
52	26	Allan Boynton	102	51	0	0	0.0%	PIT
52	26	Sam Moncada	102	51	0	0	0.0%	CHI
34	33	Len Neglia	101	53	2	5	9.4%	CHI
23	34	Matthew Taylor	100	54	2	8	14.8%	CHI
34	34	Brad MacDonald	100	53	2	6	11.3%	CHI
42	34	Jordan Ford	100	52	1	4	7.7%	PIT
52	34	Robin Martin	100	51	1	2	3.9%	PIT
65	34	Brett Kirkpatrick	100	50	0	0	0.0%	CHI
65	34	Andrew Hamilton	100	50	0	0	0.0%	CHI
65	34	Shannon Brewster	100	50	0	0	0.0%	PIT
65	34	Jacqui Snow	100	50	0	0	0.0%	CHI
8	42	Shane Firth	98	56	3	14	25.0%	CHI
17	42	Peter Seemann	98	55	2	12	21.8%	BOS
23	42	Alexander Bondarenko	98	54	2	10	18.5%	PIT
42	42	Aaron Allard	98	52	2	6	11.5%	CHI
17	46	Jordan Katz	97	55	3	13	23.6%	PIT
23	46	Gary Morris	97	54	3	11	20.4%	ANA
34	46	Karen Savoie	97	53	3	9	17.0%	PIT
8	49	Stacy Martin	96	56	3	16	28.6%	PIT
17	49	Douglas Wilkinson	96	55	3	14	25.5%	PIT
23	49	Nina Lozano	96	54	3	12	22.2%	CHI
23	49	Corey Jocelyn	96	54	3	12	22.2%	PIT
79	49	Rhonda Morris	96	49	1	2	4.1%	PIT
79	49	Carl Pledger	96	49	1	2	4.1%	CHI
79	49	Jordan Ungerman	96	49	1	2	4.1%	PIT
91	49	Brendan Hoey	96	48	0	0	0.0%	NYR
91	49	Christine Wood	96	48	0	0	0.0%	LAK
42	58	Pasqi Porco	95	52	3	9	17.3%	PIT
52	58	Stefano Pileggi	95	51	2	7	13.7%	PIT
23	60	Steve Vinette	94	54	3	14	25.9%	PIT
23	60	Jonas Struthers	94	54	3	14	25.9%	PIT
42	60	Steve Corda	94	52	3	10	19.2%	CHI
65	60	Jack Brownlee	94	50	2	6	12.0%	CHI
65	60	Sal Scarfone	94	50	1	6	12.0%	PIT
79	60	Elena Noble	94	49	1	4	8.2%	CHI
106	60	Avery Spedding	94	47	0	0	0.0%	CHI
52	67	Stephen Craig	93	51	3	9	17.6%	CHI
52	67	Jeff Wener	93	51	3	9	17.6%	PIT
52	67	Ron Wener	93	51	3	9	17.6%	LAK
52	67	Ryan Slack	93	51	3	9	17.6%	CHI
52	67	Andrew Ryan	93	51	3	9	17.6%	CHI
91	67	Harris Beder	93	48	2	3	6.3%	PIT
34	73	Andrew Robichaud	92	53	3	14	26.4%	WSH
42	73	Sanjay Talwar	92	52	3	12	23.1%	PIT
52	73	Keith Chappell	92	51	3	10	19.6%	PIT
65	73	Colin Kennedy	92	50	3	8	16.0%	PIT
79	73	Joan Coveny	92	49	2	6	12.2%	PIT
79	73	David Van Kula	92	49	2	6	12.2%	LAK
91	73	John Brownlee	92	48	1	4	8.3%	PIT
117	73	Dwight Butler	92	46	0	0	0.0%	PIT
117	73	Peter Holland	92	46	0	0	0.0%	CHI
65	82	Todd Beaman	91	50	3	9	18.0%	DET
91	82	Darcy Lavery	91	48	2	5	10.4%	PIT
42	84	Mark Brewster	90	52	4	14	26.9%	PIT
52	84	Larry Coole	90	51	3	12	23.5%	PIT
91	84	Graham Haines	90	48	3	6	12.5%	PIT
91	84	Dryden Craig	90	48	3	6	12.5%	CHI
79	84	Shawn Robichaud	90	49	2	8	16.3%	PIT
79	84	Sean Smith	90	49	2	8	16.3%	PIT
91	84	Greg Yaroff	90	48	2	6	12.5%	PIT
106	84	Jaime Caeiro	90	47	2	4	8.5%	PIT
91	84	Frank DiGirolomo	90	48	1	6	12.5%	PIT
117	84	Ian Bourke	90	46	1	2	4.3%	PIT
52	94	Dan Leggieri	89	51	4	13	25.5%	PIT
65	94	Mike De Petrillo	89	50	3	11	22.0%	PIT
79	94	Martin Lefebvre	89	49	3	9	18.4%	PIT
91	97	David Minuk	88	48	3	8	16.7%	CHI
79	97	Nanthan Ramachandran	88	49	2	10	20.4%	PIT
91	97	Richard Tattersall	88	48	2	8	16.7%	PIT
106	97	Ava McAdam-Beder	88	47	2	6	12.8%	CHI
117	97	David Hart	88	46	2	4	8.7%	PIT
130	97	Amy van Steendelaar	88	45	1	2	4.4%	DET
144	97	Andy Hotson	88	44	0	0	0.0%	DET
144	97	Rachelle Gaudet	88	44	0	0	0.0%	NYR
144	97	Marilyn Beaulieu	88	44	0	0	0.0%	DET
130	106	Dave Quist	87	45	1	3	6.7%	BOS
65	107	Emma and Andrew Fielding	86	50	3	14	28.0%	WSH
91	107	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	86	48	3	10	20.8%	PIT
106	107	Ian Winsor	86	47	3	8	17.0%	CHI
106	107	Max Porebski	86	47	2	8	17.0%	OTT
158	107	Nick Mechar	86	43	0	0	0.0%	SJS
65	112	Ted Kennedy	85	50	3	15	30.0%	DET
79	112	Joy Smith	85	49	3	13	26.5%	WSH
106	112	Thomas Jarman	85	47	3	9	19.1%	PIT
106	112	Brad Moulton	85	47	3	9	19.1%	PIT
106	112	Tracy Smith	85	47	3	9	19.1%	CHI
117	112	Noah Bloedow	85	46	2	7	15.2%	PIT
91	118	Lindsey Baldwin	84	48	3	12	25.0%	PIT
117	118	Connor Brewster	84	46	3	8	17.4%	PIT
130	118	Norrin Ripsman	84	45	3	6	13.3%	PIT
167	118	Brad Hotson	84	42	0	0	0.0%	NYR
167	118	Evan Hoey	84	42	0	0	0.0%	BOS
65	123	Andrea De Petrillo	83	50	3	17	34.0%	CHI
106	123	Samuel Wexler	83	47	3	11	23.4%	PIT
144	123	Fred Slade	83	44	3	5	11.4%	MTL
144	123	Kristie Hotson	83	44	2	5	11.4%	PIT
158	123	Nick Van Kula	83	43	1	3	7.0%	CHI
158	123	Paul Baran	83	43	1	3	7.0%	CHI
65	129	Vincent Galante	82	50	5	18	36.0%	ANA
91	129	Marco Pazzano	82	48	3	14	29.2%	WSH
106	129	Aaron Pretto	82	47	3	12	25.5%	CHI
130	129	Silvio Memme	82	45	3	8	17.8%	BOS
144	129	Frank Pileggi	82	44	3	6	13.6%	PIT
177	129	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	82	41	0	0	0.0%	NYR
130	135	Vince DiNucci	81	45	3	9	20.0%	CHI
130	135	Kyle Hogg	81	45	3	9	20.0%	PIT
130	135	Tim Smith	81	45	3	9	20.0%	WSH
144	135	Mouli Ramani	81	44	3	7	15.9%	MTL
144	135	Mitch Wexler	81	44	3	7	15.9%	PIT
65	140	Allan Crisford	80	50	5	20	40.0%	PIT
117	140	Barrett Boitson	80	46	3	12	26.1%	PIT
144	140	Neil Poitras	80	44	3	8	18.2%	CHI
158	140	Kevin Boomer	80	43	3	6	14.0%	PIT
186	140	Adam Bloedow	80	40	0	0	0.0%	PIT
79	145	Steve Feltz	79	49	4	19	38.8%	TOR
106	145	Ben Wine	79	47	4	15	31.9%	TOR
117	147	Michael Stein	78	46	3	14	30.4%	PIT
117	147	Al Champsi	78	46	3	14	30.4%	PIT
117	147	Mel McNulty	78	46	3	14	30.4%	PIT
158	147	Jason Feltz	78	43	2	8	18.6%	PIT
117	151	Frank Iusi	77	46	4	15	32.6%	CHI
130	151	Stuart Klein	77	45	3	13	28.9%	WSH
158	151	Peter Hogg	77	43	3	9	20.9%	CHI
158	151	Ryan Thompson	77	43	3	9	20.9%	PIT
167	151	Patrick Provost	77	42	3	7	16.7%	CHI
130	156	Lee Beech	76	45	3	14	31.1%	PIT
144	156	Jamie Duggan	76	44	3	12	27.3%	PIT
144	156	Patrick Gill	76	44	3	12	27.3%	ANA
167	156	Russell Reed	76	42	3	8	19.0%	CHI
177	156	Shane Davey	76	41	2	6	14.6%	CHI
177	156	Craig Endicott	76	41	1	6	14.6%	CHI
167	162	Ruth Beder	75	42	5	9	21.4%	PIT
130	162	Robert Joynes	75	45	3	15	33.3%	PIT
144	162	Marie Sealy	75	44	3	13	29.5%	WSH
177	162	David Lester	75	41	3	7	17.1%	CHI
186	162	Mathew Seemann	75	40	3	5	12.5%	BOS
167	162	Ben Farias	75	42	2	9	21.4%	PIT
144	168	Kevin Hoey	74	44	3	14	31.8%	NYR
177	168	Fraser Macdonald	74	41	3	8	19.5%	PIT
186	168	Braeden Provost	74	40	3	6	15.0%	CHI
186	168	Dustin Hall	74	40	3	6	15.0%	PIT
192	168	Lanny Cardow	74	39	2	4	10.3%	WSH
203	168	Gabe Pretto	74	37	0	0	0.0%	CHI
130	174	Kevin Pinto	73	45	6	17	37.8%	MTL
91	174	Brandon Snow	73	48	5	23	47.9%	PIT
130	174	Stephanie Robichaud	73	45	3	17	37.8%	CHI
158	174	Matt Seiler	73	43	3	13	30.2%	CHI
186	174	Dave Poitras	73	40	2	7	17.5%	BOS
186	179	Corby Fine	72	40	3	8	20.0%	CHI
197	179	Scott Lee	72	38	2	4	10.5%	PIT
197	181	Mark Norman	71	38	4	5	13.2%	VAN
192	181	Laurena Clark	71	39	3	7	17.9%	CHI
117	183	Brandon Kubis	70	46	4	22	47.8%	CHI
177	183	Ron Soreanu	70	41	3	12	29.3%	CHI
197	183	Colin McSweeney	70	38	3	6	15.8%	CHI
130	186	Hank Shannon	69	45	7	21	46.7%	MTL
130	186	Mike Siegler	69	45	6	21	46.7%	PIT
216	186	Richard Gretzinger	69	35	1	1	2.9%	PIT
158	189	Ryan Chirnomas	68	43	4	18	41.9%	CHI
197	189	Dan Sullivan	68	38	3	8	21.1%	VAN
167	191	Steve Sealy	67	42	4	17	40.5%	PIT
177	191	John Upper	67	41	3	15	36.6%	CHI
210	191	David Valenti	67	36	3	5	13.9%	CHI
210	191	Sharon Boitson	67	36	3	5	13.9%	CHI
210	191	Terry Hoey	67	36	3	5	13.9%	CHI
117	196	Chris Smith	66	46	6	26	56.5%	TOR
144	196	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	66	44	6	22	50.0%	VAN
167	196	Kristoff Porebski	66	42	5	18	42.9%	CHI
197	196	Don Fudge	66	38	5	10	26.3%	MTL
203	196	Ron Ego	66	37	5	8	21.6%	STL
177	196	Ella Farias	66	41	4	16	39.0%	PIT
177	196	Adam Jamieson	66	41	3	16	39.0%	CHI
210	196	Azra Champsi	66	36	2	6	16.7%	BOS
203	204	Laura Speciale	65	37	3	9	24.3%	WSH
197	205	Roger Savoie	64	38	4	12	31.6%	TOR
210	205	Zack O'Gorman	64	36	3	8	22.2%	CHI
230	205	Scott Poitras	64	32	0	0	0.0%	PIT
192	208	Jason Lin	63	39	4	15	38.5%	SJS
192	209	Duncan Campbell	62	39	4	16	41.0%	TOR
220	209	Della Santin	62	34	4	6	17.6%	BOS
216	209	Mike Newbauer	62	35	3	8	22.9%	WSH
216	209	Carlie Mae	62	35	2	8	22.9%	CHI
230	209	Chris Rougier	62	32	1	2	6.3%	BOS
203	214	Daryl McGee	61	37	3	13	35.1%	SJS
203	214	Paul Groba	61	37	3	13	35.1%	WSH
220	214	Rick Hollingworth	61	34	3	7	20.6%	PIT
220	214	Becke Gainforth	61	34	3	7	20.6%	OTT
225	214	Mike van Steendelaar	61	33	2	5	15.2%	NYR
167	219	John Spink	60	42	6	24	57.1%	BOS
203	219	Dennis Clayton	60	37	3	14	37.8%	CHI
225	219	Laura Tackaberry	60	33	3	6	18.2%	LAK
203	222	Bryan Wood	59	37	5	15	40.5%	CHI
167	223	Sean Sargent	58	42	6	26	61.9%	CHI
210	223	Kovi Smolack	58	36	4	14	38.9%	TOR
220	223	Janine Pileggi	58	34	4	10	29.4%	LAK
230	223	Sam Fielding	58	32	3	6	18.8%	STL
192	227	Joseph Roul	57	39	5	21	53.8%	TOR
230	227	Trish Robichaud	57	32	3	7	21.9%	CHI
225	229	Elizabeth Klein	54	33	5	12	36.4%	VAN
225	230	Brenden Kennedy	51	33	5	15	45.5%	CHI
242	231	Richard van Steendelaar	50	25	0	0	0.0%	LAK
225	232	Brent Morris	49	33	6	17	51.5%	VAN
239	232	Siyeon Lee	49	27	3	5	18.5%	STL
230	234	Eli Hammerman	48	32	6	16	50.0%	CHI
220	235	Martha Gill	46	34	6	22	64.7%	CHI
235	235	Elliott Silverstein	46	31	5	16	51.6%	CHI
237	235	Ragulan Vathsalan	46	30	5	14	46.7%	ANA
240	235	Eric Flint	46	26	1	6	23.1%	NYR
238	239	Sarah Hull	43	29	4	15	51.7%	LAK
235	240	Whitt Newbauer	38	31	6	24	77.4%	WSH
240	240	Deric Chow	38	26	6	14	53.8%	WSH
244	242	Paula Santin	37	22	3	7	31.8%	MTL
243	243	Barbara Kennedy	36	24	6	12	50.0%	MTL
216	244	George Smith	35	35	9	35	100.0%	TOR
246	245	Judy Bobka	26	17	5	8	47.1%	TOR
247	245	Richard Ciano	26	14	5	2	14.3%	BOS
245	247	David Schamma	20	20	9	20	100.0%	VAN