Lord Stanley's Pool 2013 - Round 2 Analysis

With the completion of round 2 and no additional upsets, the pool remains one of the strongest we have had in over 10 years. With only the exception being Washington, which was ranked third, the four remaining teams were the four top teams for both player picks and Cup picks. Only 28.4% of picks have been eliminated, the lowest after two rounds since 2001 (25.6%).

Such a strong pool means there is plenty of opportunity, still, for points and reasonable chances for some people to move up or down in the standings. But there is a dominant trend in the top dozen poolies: players from Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Los Angeles, and goaltender Jonathan Quick.. In fact, most of the 13 entries still with a full squad of nine (a new record) are already at or near the leaderboard meaning that it will really matter which players score, rather than which teams win, that will determine the changes over the next two rounds.

Defenseman Kris Letang led all skaters in points during round 2.

Great picks. Now what?
There's no guarantee a pool's most frequent picks will be at the top of the scoring race, nor that they will be essential to victory. But this year it appears that all of the most popular players are bringing respectable results. All five players with 100+ picks (Patrick Kane (186), Jonathan Toews (178), Evgeni Malkin (121), Sidney Crosby (115), and Kris Letang (113) are on nearly all of the leading entries in the pool. Some are missing on only one of the top entries, while others are on all 10. Combine them with Jonathan Quick, who is only on 21 entries but all of the contenders, and six of nine roster spots are the same for all of these entries. So congratulations on making the best picks, but now what? It looks like from here on out, with few exceptions, the performance of these players is largely irrelevant. It will be up to the other players from these entries to make the difference in the standings.

On the flip side, it seems that few people picked Boston players - at least, those making a difference - and the best Kings skaters are not the ones you might expect. Scoring leader David Krejci was only picked 6 times, the top of whom (Alan Eng) sits in 24th. Nathan Horton was picked only twice, and they sit in 168th and 245th. So congratulations to those who picked these players, but too bad they didn't conform to the rest of the pack for their other picks.

Goaltending battle already won?
This year's competitive and interesting goalie battle - with numerous goalies picked in relevant numbers - might already be over, with Jonathan Quick posting three shutouts and his poolies clustered at the top of the pool thanks to his 23 points. Henrik Lundqvist is eliminated and Marc-Andre Fleury flamed out, leaving Corey Crawford as the second-best goalie, but 10 points back. With Quick still going strong it is apparent already that he was a must-pick in this year's pool.

Final five teams were past five Cup champs
As mentioned on the front page, the final four teams were the last four Cup champions, an extreme improbability these days with 30 teams in the league and salary-cap parity. In fact, you can add Detroit to the list, being the last team eliminated from round 2; they were the Cup champs five years ago against Pittsburgh, the year before Crosby and company won their rematch. Now following this logic, we would see the last two champs - Boston and LA - in the finals with LA winning. I think the odds are against it...

Mitch's predictions
A 3-1 round two puts me at 7-5 on the year which is better than I usually do. Let's see if I can nail the last three and get to .667. I'm calling the Penguins to meet LA in an epic final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Scott Poitras might not quite be in the running to win the pool, but he has made a remarkable comeback to climb from 230th to 77th to sit in the top third of the pool. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Scott Poitras	153 (230,77)	Diego DeMarco	54
Gabe Pretto	149 (203,54)	Marie Loop	53
Evan Hoey	128 (167,39)	Dave Spedding	53
Ian Bourke	105 (117,12)	Jacqui Snow	51
Dave Poitras	105 (186,81)	Cheyne Matheson	51
Jim Dart	96 (172,76)	Blair Phillips	29

Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Allan Crisford	115 (65,180)	David Schamma	0
Karen Savoie	104 (34,138)	George Smith	0
Dan Leggieri	99 (52,151)	Judy Bobka	4
Mark Brewster	96 (42,138)	Richard Ciano	7
Chris Smith	91 (117,208)	Hank Shannon, Mike Siegler	9

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

David Krejci BOS 17 6

Evgeni Malkin PIT 16 121

Sidney Crosby PIT 15 115

Derick Brassard NYR 12 0

Nathan Horton BOS 12 2

Joe Pavelski SAN 12 2

Henrik Zetterberg DET 12 18

Jarome Iginla PIT 12 26
Patrick Sharp CHI 11 11

Logan Couture SAN 11 13

Marian Hossa CHI 11 35

Defense Team Pts Picks

Kris Letang PIT 16 113

Zdeno Chara BOS 11 24

Paul Martin PIT 9 3

Duncan Keith CHI 9 94

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Jonathan Quick LOS 23 21

Henrik Lundqvist NJD 15 24

Corey Crawford CHI 13 56

Jimmy Howard DET 12 8

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Chicago 577 72

Pittsburgh 545 94

Los Angeles 136 9

Boston 95 11

OUT Picks Cups

NY Rangers 90 9

Detroit 61 5

Ottawa 44 2

San Jose 43 3

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2, so Jonathan Quick should get one and a half shutouts.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

8 1 1 Diego DeMarco 110 9 PIT 165
17 2 2 Marie Loop 108 9 CHI 162
17 2 2 Dave Spedding 108 9 PIT 162
23 4 4 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 105 8 LAK 156
65 6 5 Jacqui Snow 101 9 CHI 151
17 5 6 Nolan Sarner 102 7 PIT 149
23 6 7 Sophie Wexler 101 8 LAK 148
52 10 8 Robin Martin 99 8 PIT 147
79 11 9 Carl Pledger 97 8 CHI 144
1 6 10 Samara McAdam 101 7 PIT 141
117 12 10 Ian Bourke 95 8 PIT 141
34 15 10 Kara Spedding 94 9 CHI 141
91 12 13 Darcy Lavery 95 7 PIT 140
91 15 14 Greg Yaroff 94 7 PIT 138
2 15 15 Tyler Robinson 94 7 PIT 137
8 24 16 Alan Eng 91 9 PIT 136
8 9 17 Blair Miller 100 6 CHI 135
42 20 17 David Loop 93 8 PIT 135
4 26 17 Brandon Poitras 90 9 PIT 135
23 26 17 Andrea Phillips 90 9 CHI 135
79 26 21 Rhonda Morris 90 8 PIT 134
4 15 22 Rob Phillips 94 7 PIT 133
8 15 23 Shane Kozlowich 94 7 NYR 131
167 39 24 Evan Hoey 87 9 BOS 130
34 39 24 Aron Slipacoff 87 9 PIT 130
4 26 26 George Crothers 90 6 CHI 129
52 31 26 Ron Wener 89 6 LAK 129
42 35 26 Aaron Allard 88 7 CHI 129
203 54 29 Gabe Pretto 85 9 CHI 127
91 21 30 John Brownlee 92 5 PIT 126
65 21 30 Brett Kirkpatrick 92 6 CHI 126
23 24 30 Alexander Bondarenko 91 6 PIT 126
8 31 30 Shane Firth 89 6 CHI 126
42 26 30 Jeff Lizotte 90 7 PIT 126
79 46 30 David Van Kula 86 7 LAK 126
34 35 36 Len Neglia 88 6 CHI 125
23 39 37 Nina Lozano 87 6 CHI 124
23 39 37 Corey Jocelyn 87 6 PIT 124
4 46 37 Matt Morrison 86 7 PIT 124
79 46 37 Nanthan Ramachandran 86 7 PIT 124
65 65 37 Shannon Brewster 83 9 PIT 124
65 35 42 Andrea De Petrillo 88 6 CHI 123
34 39 42 Andrew Robichaud 87 6 WSH 123
42 21 44 Judah Gould 92 6 PIT 122
42 54 44 Steve Corda 85 6 CHI 122
52 65 44 Allan Boynton 83 8 PIT 122
2 12 47 Jeff Hammond 95 4 PIT 121
34 35 47 Alvin Gainforth 88 6 CHI 121
52 58 47 Andrew Ryan 84 6 CHI 121
52 58 47 Ryan Slack 84 6 CHI 121
52 58 47 Jeff Wener 84 6 PIT 121
34 46 47 Brendan Browne 86 7 CHI 121
17 54 47 Peter Seemann 85 7 BOS 121
52 46 47 Sam Moncada 86 8 CHI 121
106 39 55 Avery Spedding 87 6 CHI 120
106 58 55 Aaron Pretto 84 6 CHI 120
230 77 55 Scott Poitras 80 9 PIT 120
42 71 58 Jordan Ford 81 8 PIT 119
52 46 59 Blair Phillips 86 6 CHI 118
91 65 59 Harris Beder 83 6 PIT 118
91 71 59 Graham Haines 81 6 PIT 118
91 71 59 Dryden Craig 81 6 CHI 118
8 39 63 James Yanyk 87 6 CHI 117
52 71 63 Stephen Craig 81 6 CHI 117
65 58 65 Sal Scarfone 84 6 PIT 116
91 71 65 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 81 6 PIT 116
8 46 67 Scott Anson 86 5 NYR 115
186 81 67 Dave Poitras 79 7 BOS 115
17 71 69 Douglas Wilkinson 81 6 PIT 114
106 81 69 Ian Winsor 79 6 CHI 114
158 81 69 Peter Hogg 79 6 CHI 114
79 81 69 Shawn Robichaud 79 7 PIT 114
79 81 69 Sean Smith 79 7 PIT 114
23 81 69 Matthew Taylor 79 7 CHI 114
158 99 69 Paul Baran 77 8 CHI 114
117 46 76 Dwight Butler 86 5 PIT 113
17 77 76 Jordan Katz 80 6 PIT 113
65 81 76 Mike De Petrillo 79 6 PIT 113
167 95 76 Russell Reed 78 6 CHI 113
42 81 76 Glenn Zyzanski 79 7 PIT 113
52 58 81 Larry Coole 84 5 PIT 112
65 70 81 Andrew Hamilton 82 6 CHI 112
91 81 81 Lindsey Baldwin 79 6 PIT 112
79 81 81 Joy Smith 79 6 WSH 112
177 99 81 David Lester 77 6 CHI 112
79 77 81 Elena Noble 80 7 CHI 112
79 99 81 Joan Coveny 77 7 PIT 112
106 99 81 Ava McAdam-Beder 77 7 CHI 112
52 99 81 Stefano Pileggi 77 7 PIT 112
23 81 90 Jonas Struthers 79 6 PIT 111
130 81 90 Robert Joynes 79 6 PIT 111
130 99 90 Vince DiNucci 77 6 CHI 111
130 99 90 Kyle Hogg 77 6 PIT 111
130 99 90 Tim Smith 77 6 WSH 111
23 58 95 Gary Morris 84 4 ANA 110
79 65 95 Jordan Ungerman 83 5 PIT 110
8 81 95 Stacy Martin 79 6 PIT 110
91 95 95 Marco Pazzano 78 6 WSH 110
144 113 95 Fred Slade 75 6 MTL 110
144 113 95 Kristie Hotson 75 7 PIT 110
8 31 101 Darlene Boitson 89 3 PIT 109
117 99 101 Barrett Boitson 77 6 PIT 109
197 113 101 Colin McSweeney 75 6 CHI 109
23 99 104 Steve Vinette 77 6 PIT 108
106 113 104 Tracy Smith 75 6 CHI 108
106 113 104 Thomas Jarman 75 6 PIT 108
144 54 107 Andy Hotson 85 5 DET 107
167 99 107 Ben Farias 77 6 PIT 107
52 113 107 Keith Chappell 75 6 PIT 107
130 31 110 Amy van Steendelaar 89 3 DET 106
34 111 110 Brad MacDonald 76 5 CHI 106
42 113 110 Sanjay Talwar 75 6 PIT 106
42 122 110 Pasqi Porco 74 6 PIT 106
106 122 110 Jaime Caeiro 74 6 PIT 106
158 122 115 Kevin Boomer 74 5 PIT 105
91 99 115 Frank DiGirolomo 77 6 PIT 105
130 111 115 Stephanie Robichaud 76 6 CHI 105
144 132 115 Frank Pileggi 72 6 PIT 105
186 129 115 Adam Bloedow 73 8 PIT 105
158 77 120 Nick Mechar 80 5 SJS 104
23 81 120 Jay Dart 79 5 PIT 104
130 122 120 Stuart Klein 74 6 WSH 104
117 138 120 David Hart 71 7 PIT 104
65 65 124 Todd Beaman 83 3 DET 103
79 132 124 Martin Lefebvre 72 6 PIT 103
144 138 124 Mouli Ramani 71 6 MTL 103
144 138 124 Mitch Wexler 71 6 PIT 103
186 138 124 Dustin Hall 71 6 PIT 103
91 113 129 Christine Wood 75 6 LAK 102
117 129 129 Michael Stein 73 6 PIT 102
203 138 129 Laura Speciale 71 6 WSH 102
91 138 129 David Minuk 71 6 CHI 102
117 95 133 Connor Brewster 78 3 PIT 101
65 122 133 Jack Brownlee 74 5 CHI 101
177 132 133 Shane Davey 72 6 CHI 101
117 132 133 Mel McNulty 72 6 PIT 101
177 151 133 Fraser Macdonald 70 6 PIT 101
167 151 133 Patrick Provost 70 6 CHI 101
130 138 133 Dave Quist 71 7 BOS 101
144 95 140 Marilyn Beaulieu 78 6 DET 100
91 122 140 Brendan Hoey 74 6 NYR 100
167 122 140 Brad Hotson 74 6 NYR 100
42 138 143 Mark Brewster 71 5 PIT 99
230 162 143 Sam Fielding 68 6 STL 99
91 158 143 Richard Tattersall 69 7 PIT 99
65 113 146 Vincent Galante 75 3 ANA 98
52 151 146 Dan Leggieri 70 5 PIT 98
197 169 146 Mark Norman 67 5 VAN 98
130 162 146 Silvio Memme 68 6 BOS 98
106 151 150 Ben Wine 70 5 TOR 97
177 129 150 Pierre Gainforth-Beech 73 6 NYR 97
158 138 150 Jason Feltz 71 6 PIT 97
106 162 150 Brad Moulton 68 6 PIT 97
130 169 150 Norrin Ripsman 67 6 PIT 97
225 169 150 Laura Tackaberry 67 6 LAK 97
144 132 156 Neil Poitras 72 5 CHI 96
216 158 156 Richard Gretzinger 69 6 PIT 96
144 162 156 Jamie Duggan 68 6 PIT 96
197 169 156 Scott Lee 67 6 PIT 96
186 174 156 Braeden Provost 66 6 CHI 96
210 174 156 Azra Champsi 66 7 BOS 96
130 162 162 Lee Beech 68 6 PIT 95
216 174 162 Mike Newbauer 66 6 WSH 95
79 158 164 Steve Feltz 69 5 TOR 94
192 180 164 Laurena Clark 65 6 CHI 94
158 158 166 Nick Van Kula 69 5 CHI 93
197 174 166 Roger Savoie 66 5 TOR 93
177 169 166 John Upper 67 6 CHI 93
158 180 166 Ryan Thompson 65 6 PIT 93
186 187 166 Mathew Seemann 64 6 BOS 93
144 151 171 Marie Sealy 70 5 WSH 92
158 138 172 Matt Seiler 71 4 CHI 91
106 138 172 Max Porebski 71 4 OTT 91
117 162 172 Noah Bloedow 68 5 PIT 91
34 138 175 Karen Savoie 71 3 PIT 90
117 180 175 Al Champsi 65 6 PIT 90
106 187 175 Samuel Wexler 64 6 PIT 90
65 138 178 Colin Kennedy 71 3 PIT 89
167 180 178 Steve Sealy 65 5 PIT 89
192 180 178 Duncan Campbell 65 5 TOR 89
220 198 178 Rick Hollingworth 62 6 PIT 89
117 174 182 Frank Iusi 66 4 CHI 87
65 180 182 Allan Crisford 65 4 PIT 87
158 187 182 Ryan Chirnomas 64 5 CHI 87
210 204 182 David Valenti 60 6 CHI 87
117 151 186 Peter Holland 70 4 CHI 86
177 174 186 Ron Soreanu 66 4 CHI 86
91 180 186 Brandon Snow 65 4 PIT 86
203 204 186 Ron Ego 60 4 STL 86
192 193 186 Lanny Cardow 63 5 WSH 86
203 198 186 Dennis Clayton 62 6 CHI 86
144 187 192 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 64 3 VAN 85
167 193 192 Kristoff Porebski 63 4 CHI 85
117 187 192 Brandon Kubis 64 5 CHI 85
203 200 192 Paul Groba 61 6 WSH 85
210 200 196 Kovi Smolack 61 5 TOR 84
186 208 196 Corby Fine 59 6 CHI 84
177 200 198 Ella Farias 61 5 PIT 83
210 211 198 Zack O'Gorman 58 6 CHI 83
65 151 200 Emma and Andrew Fielding 70 2 WSH 82
220 200 200 Janine Pileggi 61 4 LAK 82
216 204 200 Carlie Mae 60 4 CHI 82
177 193 203 Adam Jamieson 63 4 CHI 81
167 212 203 Ruth Beder 57 4 PIT 81
177 193 205 Craig Endicott 63 5 CHI 80
144 162 206 Rachelle Gaudet 68 3 NYR 78
144 187 206 Patrick Gill 64 3 ANA 78
144 193 208 Kevin Hoey 63 3 NYR 75
117 208 208 Chris Smith 59 3 TOR 75
130 214 208 Kevin Pinto 56 3 MTL 75
225 217 208 Brenden Kennedy 55 4 CHI 75
225 218 208 Elizabeth Klein 54 4 VAN 75
210 204 213 Sharon Boitson 60 3 CHI 73
65 132 214 Ted Kennedy 72 0 DET 72
192 208 214 Jason Lin 59 3 SJS 72
130 218 216 Hank Shannon 54 2 MTL 70
130 218 216 Mike Siegler 54 3 PIT 70
197 222 216 Don Fudge 53 3 MTL 70
197 212 219 Dan Sullivan 57 3 VAN 69
210 214 219 Terry Hoey 56 3 CHI 69
167 218 221 Sean Sargent 54 3 CHI 68
167 222 222 John Spink 53 3 BOS 67
203 214 223 Daryl McGee 56 3 SJS 66
220 222 224 Becke Gainforth 53 3 OTT 65
192 222 224 Joseph Roul 53 3 TOR 65
203 226 224 Bryan Wood 51 3 CHI 65
237 226 227 Ragulan Vathsalan 51 2 ANA 64
220 229 228 Della Santin 47 4 BOS 63
240 229 229 Eric Flint 47 5 NYR 62
225 232 230 Brent Morris 45 3 VAN 59
220 231 231 Martha Gill 46 3 CHI 58
230 234 231 Eli Hammerman 44 3 CHI 58
225 228 233 Mike van Steendelaar 48 4 NYR 57
230 234 234 Chris Rougier 44 4 BOS 56
242 236 235 Richard van Steendelaar 43 5 LAK 55
230 232 236 Trish Robichaud 45 3 CHI 53
240 241 237 Deric Chow 38 3 WSH 50
235 237 238 Elliott Silverstein 42 2 CHI 49
235 238 238 Whitt Newbauer 41 3 WSH 49
244 241 240 Paula Santin 38 3 MTL 48
243 243 240 Barbara Kennedy 36 3 MTL 48
238 239 240 Sarah Hull 39 4 LAK 48
239 239 243 Siyeon Lee 39 0 STL 39
216 244 244 George Smith 35 0 TOR 35
247 245 245 Richard Ciano 21 4 BOS 30
246 245 246 Judy Bobka 21 0 TOR 21
245 247 247 David Schamma 20 0 VAN 20