Round 3 Analysis

Tuukka Rask took over in round 3 with two shutouts and only two goals allowed in the series.

After nearing some record success rates for surviving picks, the elimination of the Pittsburgh Penguins took a big bite out of the pool and giving us a fairly typical number of picks alive entering the final round. But it also threw a changeup at the prospective final standings. The sudden emergence of poolies with Boston picks into the leaderboard sets us up for an interesting race to the finish by those trying to hang on to their position and those with extra Bruins players trying to overtake them.

There are 53 entries with at least one Boston player, including 14 with three. For Chicago, 217 of 247 entries have at least one Hawks player, with 159 having three. As a result it is the Boston players that will have more of an impact in terms of changes in the standings.

The final itself should be a classic, old-tyme hockey, original six matchup. Both teams are recent champions, both survived against the odds after staring down elimination, and both can dish it out. I'm sure Don Cherry is salivating! Without further ado, the pool contenders:

The contenders
As is usually the case, the pool outcome depends largely on which team wins the championship. The ten-point bonus is often the differentiator in close pools. But the race to the podium will be competitive regardless of who wins.

If Chicago wins: Marie Loop has the inside track for first place if the Hawks win, going in with a four point edge over Jacqui Snow. To catch Marie, Jacqui would need Jagr and Keith to get four more points than Hossa. Behind the two of them, the race for third will involve those who didn't pick Chicago to win. Kara Spedding - who did pick the Hawks - starts a point behind (including her Cup bonus) Cheyne Matheson, Dave Spedding, and Diego DeMarco, and Kara does have an extra player. But according to the projected standings (below), Evan Hoey, Aron Slipacoff and Brandon Poitras have a shot presuming that Boston gets a shutout along the way to Chicago's championship.

If Boston wins: Evan Hoey has essentially sewn up the pool championship in the event that Boston wins the Cup. With six players remaining including goalie Rask, a Boston win should see Evan continue the momentum he's had since round 1 and complete the rise from 167th to first. After Evan it would get interesting for the two remaining podium spots. The tied foursome of Matheson/D.Spedding/DeMarco/Loop will all fight with their different combination of three players; Cheyne Matheson should have the edge among them having picked Bergeron, the only Bruin from the group. Others would be in the fight but watch out for Brandon Poitras and Aron Slipacoff, both with six players remaining, to make a move up the standings - especially with a Rask shutout. Six points from their Boston players (easily possible) puts them in the game.

Chicago win				Boston win
Marie Loop	123 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Hossa		Evan Hoey	118 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Hossa,Rask,Seguin,Marchand
Jacqui Snow	119 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Keith,Jagr		Cheyne Matheson	123	Kane,Keith,Bergeron
Cheyne Matheson	123	Kane,Keith,Bergeron		Dave Spedding	123	Kane,Toews,Sharp
Dave Spedding	123	Kane,Toews,Sharp		Diego DeMarco	123	Toews,Hossa,Sharp
Diego DeMarco	123	Toews,Hossa,Sharp		Marie Loop	123	Kane,Toews,Hossa
Kara Spedding	112 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Crawford,Bergeron		Jacqui Snow	119	Kane,Toews,Keith,Jagr
Gabe Pretto	111 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Crawford		Brandon Poitras	117	Kane,Toews,Keith,Chara,Rask,Jagr
Carl Pledger	111 (+10)	Kane,Toews,Hossa		Aron Slipacoff	116	Kane,Toews,Keith,Chara,Rask,Bergeron

Pool attracts attention from Toronto's Finest
Last week driving the kids to school a member of the Toronto Police pulled up beside me as I was about to make a left turn, and buzzed me. Knowing I hadn't committed a traffic offence (except maybe setting my turn signal on a bit late), I opened the window. "Are you Mitch Wexler?" said the cop. Yes, I responded. "Do you run a hockey pool?" Yes... "I've played in it! That's the best hockey pool around!" Well I'm glad Toronto's finest (the Police Service, not the Leafs) enjoy the pool and for that I won't take offense to his running my license.

Goalie battle gets interesting again
We anticipated a heated goalie battle these playoffs and a number of different goalies making an impact on the standings. Then came Jonathan Quick in round 2 to take over and drive his poolies to the top of the standings. He was looking like the key to the pool but after another round, we're back into a battle. Tuukka Rask's two round 3 shutouts puts him right in the race and his 16 poolies have been on the rise. Corey Crawford and Rask both can impact the final standings with their play in the championship round.

Underappreciated
The top two scoring leaders were both denied much love from poolies. Boston pickers opted for others on that team instead of David Krejci (6 picks) and Nathan Horton (2). Krejci's top picker is Alan Eng, currently 11th but likely too far out to get on the podium. Horton's only two pickers were Noah Bloedow (168th) and Richard Ciano (245th). Yet both of these players performed admirably in the 2011 Bruins' Cup run. Next on Boston's list is Milan Lucic, who was picked only by Dave Quist (119th). Meanwhile for Chicago, Bryan Bickell is among the team's four scoring leaders with 13 points, and is now the top unpicked player in the pool.

Mitch's prediction
My hopes of going 10-5 in my picks went horribly astray in round 3 when I got both wrong. So I'm sitting at 7-7 hoping for a winning record... I was leaning towards Chicago for a few days but thinking about it more I'll take Boston to win. They have the "Boston Strong" karma from the marathon, they smothered the Pittsburgh offence, and they are getting the best goaltending at the moment.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Dennis Clayton	131 (198,67)		Laurena Clark	32
Laurena Clark	129 (180,51)		Dennis Clayton	32
Silvio Memme	105 (162,57)		Evan Hoey	31
Michael Stein	81 (129,48)		Scott Poitras	29
Jamie Duggan	69 (162,93)		Aron Slipacoff	29
			Lindsey Baldwin	29
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
Gary Morris	75 (58,133)		11 People with:	0
Todd Beaman	68 (65,133)
Jay Dart	67 (81,148)
Connor Brewster	66 (95,161)
Vince Galante	64 (113,177)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks David Krejci BOS 21 6 Nathan Horton BOS 17 2 Evgeni Malkin PIT 16 121 Sidney Crosby PIT 15 115 Patrick Sharp CHI 14 11 Marian Hossa CHI 14 35 Patrick Kane CHI 14 186 Bryan Bickell CHI 13 0 Milan Lucic BOS 13 1 Brad Marchand BOS 13 10 Jeff Carter LOS 13 13	Defense Team Pts Picks Kris Letang PIT 16 113 Slava Voynov LOS 13 3 Paul Martin PIT 11 3 Zdeno Chara BOS 11 24 Duncan Keith CHI 11 94 Goalies Team Pts Picks Jonathan Quick LOS 25 21 Tuukka Rask BOS 22 16 Corey Crawford CHI 17 56 Henrik Lundqvist NYR 15 24
Teams
IN Picks Cups Chicago 577 72 Boston 95 11	OUT Picks Cups Pittsburgh 545 94 Los Angeles 136 9

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4, not including the Cup winner bonus. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd4 Projection
167	39	6	1	Evan Hoey	118	6	BOS	143
34	39	8	2	Aron Slipacoff	116	6	PIT	142
4	26	7	3	Brandon Poitras	117	6	PIT	141
8	24	11	4	Alan Eng	112	6	PIT	136
8	1	1	5	Diego DeMarco	123	3	PIT	135
17	2	1	5	Marie Loop	123	3	CHI	135
23	4	1	5	Thomas Cheyne Matheson	123	3	LAK	135
17	2	1	5	Dave Spedding	123	3	PIT	135
230	77	19	9	Scott Poitras	109	6	PIT	133
65	6	5	10	Jacqui Snow	119	4	CHI	132
34	15	11	11	Kara Spedding	112	4	CHI	129
42	20	19	12	David Loop	109	5	PIT	128
91	81	21	13	Lindsey Baldwin	108	3	PIT	127
192	180	51	13	Laurena Clark	97	6	CHI	127
1	6	10	15	Samara McAdam	113	3	PIT	126
17	5	9	16	Nolan Sarner	114	3	PIT	125
130	162	57	16	Silvio Memme	96	6	BOS	125
203	54	13	18	Gabe Pretto	111	3	CHI	124
79	11	13	19	Carl Pledger	111	3	CHI	123
23	26	17	19	Andrea Phillips	110	3	CHI	123
2	15	24	19	Tyler Robinson	106	4	PIT	123
186	81	26	19	Dave Poitras	105	4	BOS	123
17	54	31	19	Peter Seemann	102	5	BOS	123
8	9	17	24	Blair Miller	110	3	CHI	121
91	12	21	25	Darcy Lavery	108	3	PIT	120
203	198	67	25	Dennis Clayton	94	6	CHI	120
52	10	13	27	Robin Martin	111	2	PIT	118
23	6	13	27	Sophie Wexler	111	2	LAK	118
8	39	31	27	James Yanyk	102	4	CHI	118
91	15	24	30	Greg Yaroff	106	3	PIT	117
4	15	26	30	Rob Phillips	105	3	PIT	117
117	12	21	32	Ian Bourke	108	2	PIT	115
65	21	29	32	Brett Kirkpatrick	103	3	CHI	115
42	35	31	32	Aaron Allard	102	3	CHI	115
4	26	35	32	George Crothers	101	3	CHI	115
34	35	35	32	Alvin Gainforth	101	3	CHI	115
52	46	44	32	Sam Moncada	99	4	CHI	115
117	129	48	32	Michael Stein	98	4	PIT	115
42	21	29	39	Judah Gould	103	3	PIT	114
8	31	35	39	Shane Firth	101	3	CHI	114
42	26	41	39	Jeff Lizotte	100	4	PIT	114
91	122	82	39	Brendan Hoey	91	6	NYR	114
79	46	35	43	Nanthan Ramachandran	101	3	PIT	113
34	35	41	43	Len Neglia	100	3	CHI	113
4	46	51	43	Matt Morrison	97	4	PIT	113
65	58	57	43	Sal Scarfone	96	4	PIT	113
23	24	35	47	Alexander Bondarenko	101	3	PIT	112
23	39	44	47	Nina Lozano	99	3	CHI	112
23	39	44	47	Corey Jocelyn	99	3	PIT	112
34	111	77	47	Brad MacDonald	92	4	CHI	112
8	15	28	51	Shane Kozlowich	104	2	NYR	111
65	65	41	51	Shannon Brewster	100	3	PIT	111
65	35	48	51	Andrea De Petrillo	98	3	CHI	111
34	39	48	54	Andrew Robichaud	98	3	WSH	110
42	54	51	54	Steve Corda	97	3	CHI	110
91	21	31	56	John Brownlee	102	2	PIT	109
79	26	35	56	Rhonda Morris	101	2	PIT	109
52	58	57	56	Ryan Slack	96	3	CHI	109
52	58	57	56	Jeff Wener	96	3	PIT	109
52	58	57	56	Andrew Ryan	96	3	CHI	109
106	58	64	56	Aaron Pretto	95	3	CHI	109
52	65	71	56	Allan Boynton	93	5	PIT	109
79	46	44	63	David Van Kula	99	2	LAK	108
106	39	51	63	Avery Spedding	97	3	CHI	108
52	46	51	63	Blair Phillips	97	3	CHI	108
79	77	64	63	Elena Noble	95	3	CHI	108
158	99	82	63	Paul Baran	91	4	CHI	108
216	158	93	63	Richard Gretzinger	90	4	PIT	108
186	187	119	69	Mathew Seemann	86	5	BOS	107
42	71	67	70	Jordan Ford	94	3	PIT	106
91	71	71	70	Dryden Craig	93	3	CHI	106
52	71	71	70	Stephen Craig	93	3	CHI	106
91	71	71	70	Graham Haines	93	3	PIT	106
17	77	77	70	Jordan Katz	92	3	PIT	106
23	81	77	70	Jonas Struthers	92	3	PIT	106
130	138	119	70	Dave Quist	86	6	BOS	106
8	46	67	77	Scott Anson	94	3	NYR	105
23	81	77	77	Matthew Taylor	92	3	CHI	105
106	81	82	77	Ian Winsor	91	3	CHI	105
144	162	93	77	Jamie Duggan	90	3	PIT	105
65	70	71	81	Andrew Hamilton	93	3	CHI	104
91	65	71	81	Harris Beder	93	3	PIT	104
79	99	82	81	Joan Coveny	91	3	PIT	104
158	81	82	81	Peter Hogg	91	3	CHI	104
34	46	57	85	Brendan Browne	96	2	CHI	103
130	99	93	85	Vince DiNucci	90	3	CHI	103
167	95	93	85	Russell Reed	90	3	CHI	103
130	99	93	85	Tim Smith	90	3	WSH	103
130	99	93	85	Kyle Hogg	90	3	PIT	103
117	46	64	90	Dwight Butler	95	2	PIT	102
91	71	82	90	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	91	3	PIT	102
79	81	82	90	Sean Smith	91	3	PIT	102
17	71	82	90	Douglas Wilkinson	91	3	PIT	102
79	81	93	90	Shawn Robichaud	90	3	PIT	102
177	99	105	90	David Lester	89	3	CHI	102
65	81	105	90	Mike De Petrillo	89	3	PIT	102
144	54	67	97	Andy Hotson	94	2	DET	101
130	81	82	97	Robert Joynes	91	2	PIT	101
130	111	93	97	Stephanie Robichaud	90	3	CHI	101
79	81	93	97	Joy Smith	90	3	WSH	101
203	138	93	97	Laura Speciale	90	3	WSH	101
117	151	128	97	Peter Holland	85	4	CHI	101
2	12	51	103	Jeff Hammond	97	1	PIT	100
8	81	105	103	Stacy Martin	89	3	PIT	100
52	99	105	103	Stefano Pileggi	89	3	PIT	100
106	99	110	103	Ava McAdam-Beder	88	3	CHI	100
197	113	114	103	Colin McSweeney	87	3	CHI	100
210	174	114	103	Azra Champsi	87	4	BOS	100
52	58	77	109	Larry Coole	92	2	PIT	99
144	95	82	109	Marilyn Beaulieu	91	3	DET	99
117	99	110	109	Barrett Boitson	88	3	PIT	99
91	99	110	109	Frank DiGirolomo	88	3	PIT	99
186	129	114	109	Adam Bloedow	87	3	PIT	99
42	81	114	109	Glenn Zyzanski	87	4	PIT	99
144	113	119	109	Kristie Hotson	86	4	PIT	99
79	65	82	116	Jordan Ungerman	91	2	PIT	98
23	99	114	116	Steve Vinette	87	3	PIT	98
106	113	119	116	Tracy Smith	86	3	CHI	98
144	113	119	116	Fred Slade	86	3	MTL	98
106	113	119	116	Thomas Jarman	86	3	PIT	98
177	132	119	116	Shane Davey	86	3	CHI	98
52	113	119	116	Keith Chappell	86	3	PIT	98
91	95	110	123	Marco Pazzano	88	3	WSH	97
106	122	128	123	Jaime Caeiro	85	3	PIT	97
158	122	133	123	Kevin Boomer	84	3	PIT	97
117	138	140	123	David Hart	82	4	PIT	97
52	31	57	127	Ron Wener	96	0	LAK	96
158	77	105	127	Nick Mechar	89	2	SJS	96
130	122	128	127	Stuart Klein	85	3	WSH	96
167	122	128	127	Brad Hotson	85	3	NYR	96
42	113	128	127	Sanjay Talwar	85	3	PIT	96
144	132	133	127	Frank Pileggi	84	3	PIT	96
91	158	139	127	Richard Tattersall	83	4	PIT	96
117	187	161	127	Brandon Kubis	78	5	CHI	96
158	158	148	135	Nick Van Kula	81	3	CHI	95
203	200	177	135	Paul Groba	75	6	WSH	95
225	169	119	137	Laura Tackaberry	86	2	LAK	93
42	122	140	137	Pasqi Porco	82	3	PIT	93
144	138	140	137	Mouli Ramani	82	3	MTL	93
144	138	140	137	Mitch Wexler	82	3	PIT	93
79	132	140	137	Martin Lefebvre	82	3	PIT	93
117	132	140	137	Mel McNulty	82	3	PIT	93
186	138	140	137	Dustin Hall	82	3	PIT	93
177	193	168	137	Craig Endicott	77	5	CHI	93
167	99	133	145	Ben Farias	84	3	PIT	92
158	138	148	145	Jason Feltz	81	3	PIT	92
106	138	148	145	Max Porebski	81	3	OTT	92
91	138	148	145	David Minuk	81	3	CHI	92
230	162	155	145	Sam Fielding	80	3	STL	92
79	158	160	145	Steve Feltz	79	3	TOR	92
91	113	133	151	Christine Wood	84	2	LAK	91
216	174	155	151	Mike Newbauer	80	3	WSH	91
167	151	155	151	Patrick Provost	80	3	CHI	91
106	151	155	151	Ben Wine	80	3	TOR	91
117	174	161	151	Frank Iusi	78	3	CHI	91
8	31	93	156	Darlene Boitson	90	0	PIT	90
130	31	93	156	Amy van Steendelaar	90	0	DET	90
130	169	161	156	Norrin Ripsman	78	3	PIT	90
186	174	161	156	Braeden Provost	78	3	CHI	90
65	122	140	160	Jack Brownlee	82	2	CHI	89
117	162	168	160	Noah Bloedow	77	3	PIT	89
144	187	174	160	Patrick Gill	76	3	ANA	89
144	132	148	163	Neil Poitras	81	2	CHI	88
158	138	155	163	Matt Seiler	80	2	CHI	88
117	180	168	163	Al Champsi	77	3	PIT	88
197	169	168	163	Scott Lee	77	3	PIT	88
23	58	133	167	Gary Morris	84	1	ANA	87
192	180	174	167	Duncan Campbell	76	3	TOR	87
158	180	174	167	Ryan Thompson	76	3	PIT	87
158	187	177	167	Ryan Chirnomas	75	3	CHI	87
42	138	161	171	Mark Brewster	78	2	PIT	86
130	162	168	171	Lee Beech	77	3	PIT	86
192	193	177	171	Lanny Cardow	75	3	WSH	86
117	208	195	171	Chris Smith	71	3	TOR	86
52	151	168	175	Dan Leggieri	77	2	PIT	85
177	151	161	175	Fraser Macdonald	78	3	PIT	85
197	174	177	175	Roger Savoie	75	3	TOR	85
177	193	188	175	Adam Jamieson	73	3	CHI	85
216	204	191	175	Carlie Mae	72	3	CHI	85
65	65	133	180	Todd Beaman	84	0	DET	84
167	193	186	180	Kristoff Porebski	74	2	CHI	84
167	222	191	180	John Spink	72	2	BOS	84
144	193	188	180	Kevin Hoey	73	3	NYR	84
210	204	195	184	Sharon Boitson	71	3	CHI	83
220	229	211	184	Della Santin	66	4	BOS	83
197	169	177	186	Mark Norman	75	2	VAN	82
177	174	177	186	Ron Soreanu	75	2	CHI	82
177	169	186	186	John Upper	74	3	CHI	82
186	208	195	186	Corby Fine	71	3	CHI	82
177	129	148	190	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	81	0	NYR	81
23	81	148	190	Jay Dart	81	0	PIT	81
210	200	191	192	Kovi Smolack	72	2	TOR	79
210	204	195	192	David Valenti	71	3	CHI	79
210	211	202	192	Zack O'Gorman	70	3	CHI	79
210	214	209	192	Terry Hoey	67	3	CHI	79
167	218	211	192	Sean Sargent	66	3	CHI	79
117	95	161	197	Connor Brewster	78	0	PIT	78
197	212	209	197	Dan Sullivan	67	3	VAN	78
225	217	214	197	Brenden Kennedy	65	3	CHI	78
91	180	202	200	Brandon Snow	70	2	PIT	76
167	180	202	200	Steve Sealy	70	2	PIT	76
203	226	217	200	Bryan Wood	63	3	CHI	76
65	113	177	203	Vincent Galante	75	0	ANA	75
144	162	177	203	Rachelle Gaudet	75	0	NYR	75
106	162	177	203	Brad Moulton	75	0	PIT	75
144	151	188	206	Marie Sealy	73	1	WSH	74
192	222	217	206	Joseph Roul	63	3	TOR	74
220	222	217	206	Becke Gainforth	63	3	OTT	74
220	198	205	209	Rick Hollingworth	69	1	PIT	73
65	132	191	210	Ted Kennedy	72	0	DET	72
65	138	195	211	Colin Kennedy	71	0	PIT	71
65	151	195	211	Emma and Andrew Fielding	71	0	WSH	71
34	138	195	211	Karen Savoie	71	0	PIT	71
220	200	207	211	Janine Pileggi	68	1	LAK	71
65	180	207	211	Allan Crisford	68	1	PIT	71
106	187	205	216	Samuel Wexler	69	0	PIT	69
203	204	214	216	Ron Ego	65	1	STL	69
230	234	226	216	Eli Hammerman	56	3	CHI	69
177	200	216	219	Ella Farias	64	2	PIT	68
197	222	222	219	Don Fudge	60	2	MTL	68
220	231	226	221	Martha Gill	56	3	CHI	67
144	187	211	222	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	66	0	VAN	66
167	212	220	222	Ruth Beder	62	1	PIT	66
225	232	232	222	Brent Morris	54	3	VAN	66
192	208	220	225	Jason Lin	62	1	SJS	65
130	218	225	225	Hank Shannon	58	1	MTL	65
230	232	230	227	Trish Robichaud	55	3	CHI	64
240	229	224	228	Eric Flint	59	2	NYR	62
203	214	222	229	Daryl McGee	60	0	SJS	60
240	241	235	230	Deric Chow	48	3	WSH	59
237	226	232	231	Ragulan Vathsalan	54	1	ANA	58
225	228	232	231	Mike van Steendelaar	54	2	NYR	58
243	243	238	233	Barbara Kennedy	46	3	MTL	57
225	218	226	234	Elizabeth Klein	56	0	VAN	56
130	214	226	234	Kevin Pinto	56	0	MTL	56
130	218	230	236	Mike Siegler	55	0	PIT	55
235	238	236	237	Whitt Newbauer	47	3	WSH	54
235	237	236	238	Elliott Silverstein	47	2	CHI	53
230	234	239	239	Chris Rougier	45	2	BOS	48
242	236	239	240	Richard van Steendelaar	45	2	LAK	47
244	241	239	241	Paula Santin	45	0	MTL	45
238	239	242	242	Sarah Hull	40	2	LAK	41
239	239	243	243	Siyeon Lee	39	0	STL	39
216	244	244	244	George Smith	35	0	TOR	35
247	245	245	245	Richard Ciano	27	2	BOS	33
246	245	246	246	Judy Bobka	21	0	TOR	21
245	247	247	247	David Schamma	20	0	VAN	20