Opening analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
With a Presidents' Trophy and the likely Vezina winner for their regular season dominance, the Boston Bruins are the odds-on favourite to win the Cup according to the participants in Lord Stanley's Pool. With 103 Cup picks - a new record for the pool - and 48.1% of all entries, Boston is the only team people could confidently call a contender. For the first time ever (in 16 playoff pools) no other team broke the 10% mark for Cup picks. San Jose is second with 20 - or 9.35% - and four other teams (Anaheim, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles) have more than 5% but Boston is really the only consensus choice when it comes to the Cup. Not that 48% of entries is exceptional - there have been more dominant teams - but aside from the Bruins, it appears to be quite wide open.
Far more competitive is the distribution of player picks. Boston leads with 473, 73.7% of possible picks, which is fairly typical of the leading team. Pittsburgh and Chicago are next with 327 and 294 respectively, despite having fewer Cup picks than Anaheim and San Jose.
Dark horse teams like St. Louis, Montreal and Colorado could make a difference with over 60 picks each. Is it too much to ask for a Montreal-Colorado final to welcome Patrick Roy to the NHL coaching ranks?
On the flip side, for a team with over 100 points during the season, Tampa Bay was not at all popular in the pool. Nobody picked them to win and they have only 13 player picks.
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| No goalie has dominated Lord Stanley's Pool picks in the past like Tuukka Rask this year. |
Following the regular pattern of the likely Hart Trophy winner getting the most picks in the pool, Sidney Crosby led all players with 145 picks, 68.1% of all entries. This is the lowest total for the leading player since 2009, as there is more parity among the player picks this year - which should lead to some more interesting stories in the pool standings.
Surprisingly, this is the first time Crosby has led the pool picks. He has been the runner-up three times (2008, 2010, 2012) while Ovechkin and Malkin have led twice each.
David Krejci - who has twice led playoff scoring (2011 Cup win, 2013 finals) - is second with 129 picks (60.6%) followed by a pair of Ducks, Ryan Getzlaf (90 picks) and Corey Perry (83).
There is an even spread from Patrice Bergeron's 66 picks down; 18 forwards have more selected more than 20 times, creating an interesting parity that should result in a competitive and unpredictable pool. Last year's top picks, Patrick Kane (63) and Jonathan Toews (44), are ranked 6th and 10th among forwards, while San Jose's top player, Joe Pavelski (47), is ranked ninth despite the Sharks having the second-most Cup picks.
There is only one thing to be said about the goaltending picks in this pool: Tuukka Rask. No other goalie has dominated Lord Stanley's Pool picks like he has this year. His 122 picks easily beats the previous goalie high of 85 (Luongo, 2011), and as a percentage of total entries his 57% is second only to Brodeur's aberrant 67.5% in 2001. More impressively, he leads the second place goalie Jonathan Quick by a margin of 106 picks - crushing the previous record of 52 (Nabokov vs Price in 2008). Quick has 16 picks for 7.5% of entries, the lowest runner-up in pool history.
Other goalies making a mild impact include Corey Crawford, Carey Price, and Antti Niemi, each with 12 picks. Marc-Andre Fleury, after being a co-leader with Crawford last year with 56 picks, and the leader the year before, has 10 this pool.
Following the trend started four years ago, leading defenseman Duncan Keith (102 picks, 47.9%) was picked on less than 50% of entries, but we are seeing year to year consistency. Keith was second last year as well as in 2010. Boston's Zdeno Chara (73 picks) makes the jump to second this year after being third in 2011 and 2012 while last year's leader and 2012 runner-up Kris Letang (48) is third after a miraculous recovery from a stroke earlier this year.
Also returning among prominent defensemen are Drew Doughty (37), Alex Pietrangelo (28), and P.K. Subban (22).
A slightly smaller pool this year than the last two - so I will simply chalk it up to the Leafs missing the playoffs. It would have been nice to have the single-minded (and blinded) Leafs fans back in the pool if only to pad the pool winnings - given that their picks don't pan out - but alas it was not to be. (Yes I'm making this up but it's a better excuse than "I was too busy to promote the pool much this year.")
I'd love to be taking Montreal all the way to the final, but unfortunately this will be the only round they win. My soft spot will run into a hard wall next round against Boston. My predictions mean absolutely nothing of course, as past pools will show, so without further ado:
Boston, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Rangers, Colorado, Chicago, Anaheim, Los Angeles.
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.
F:
Sidney Crosby, Pit (145 picks)
David Krejci, Bos (129)
Ryan Getzlaf, Ana (90)
Corey Perry, Ana (83)
Patrice Bergeron, Bos (66)
Patrick Kane, Chi (63)
D:
Duncan Keith, Chi (102)
Zdeno Chara, Bos (73)
G:
Tuukka Rask, Bos (122)
Last year:
F:
Patrick Kane, Chi (186 picks)
Jonathan Toews, Chi (178)
Evgeni Malkin, Pit (121)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (115)
Alex Ovechkin, Was (96)
Chris Kunitz, Pit (56)
D:
Kris Letang, Pit (113)
Duncan Keith, Chi (94)
G:
Corey Crawford, Chi / Marc-Andre Fleury, Pit (56)
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| Boston | 473 | 103 |
| Pittsburgh | 327 | 12 |
| Chicago | 294 | 17 |
| Anaheim | 212 | 19 |
| San Jose | 142 | 20 |
| Los Angeles | 116 | 12 |
| St. Louis | 84 | 9 |
| Montreal | 68 | 8 |
| Colorado | 61 | 4 |
| Philadelphia | 44 | 3 |
| NY Rangers | 43 | 4 |
| Detroit | 27 | 3 |
| Dallas | 16 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 13 | 0 |
| Columbus | 5 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 0 |
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