Lord Stanley's Pool 2014 - Round 2 Analysis

The pool saw a big turn of events in round 2. After a quiet first round with only two minor and no major upsets, the conference semi-finals saw three major teams defeated, including heavy favourite Boston. Only one of the top four teams (Chicago) remains. 73.2% of the pool's picks have been eliminated - 81.2% of Cup picks - the fifth highest rate in the 16 years of the pool. Last year only 28.4% of picks had been knocked out at this point.

Nobody has a full squad of nine players, or even eight, though 52 of you have no players left. Jay Dart, ranked in 39th, is the only entry with seven players remaining while another 22 have six. This will limit the number of people who have a credible chance to enter the leaderboard, but there will be plenty of movement in the standings and the outcome is far from determined at this point. Only seven of the 23 people with six or seven players are in the top 25 of the standings, so there will still be some volatility and the Cup winner bonus may yet play a role in the determining the winners.

Getting his hopes up
I have to admit that Samuel Wexler is getting his hopes up, leading by five points and still with six players intact. This may be a parental lesson about managing expectations. He will need to have a good lead after round 3 since he will lose at least two players at the end of this round. The projections below have him taking a 14-point lead by the end of the round while others with five or six players climb the ladder and replace those with fewer. But projections are never come completely true and some surprises - like Chicago losing, Kings players not scoring enough, some big nights by Rangers players - can change the story.

Poolies such as Paul Martin who picked the Habs, David Loop - the hottest entry in round 2 - who picked the Kings, and Frank Pileggi who picked the Hawks will all challenge for a spot on the leaderboard while Scott Lee, second place after round 2, will try to hang on for a second straight pool in the money. The others currently tied for second, Brandon Kubis, Bill Garrity and Judah Gould have all lost their Cup pick and are in tough. The top Rangers picker is Brendan Hoey in 143, projected to rise to 77th.

Kopitar dominant
Anze Kopitar (35 picks) is the clear scoring leader these playoffs with 19 points after two rounds - a four point lead over teammate Marian Gaborik (9 picks). Both can set career highs for playoff points with a couple more in round 3. PK Subban (22 picks) now leads all defensemen with 12 points. The pool leader has all three of these players; Kopitar was picked by nine of the top 10.

Biggest Bust
Held over from round 1, the Biggest Bust Award is now hereby awarded to David Krejci! After destroying the field last year with 26 points for only 6 picks - and 23 points in 2011 - he was a major disappointment with only 4 points for 129 picks this year. Of course he only had three in 2012, so given this pattern next year should be his year again...

Biggest busts over the years: 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

That hurts
Boston's elimination was the second-largest hit after two rounds in the pool's history, behind only 2010's colossal failure by the Washington Capitals. The Bruins' 103 Cup picks were the most ever from a single team eliminated by round 2 - a pool record they shouldn't be proud of.

Goaltending battle takes on new meaning
With Tuukka Rask (122 picks) out of the way, the goalie battle now becomes a relevant part of the pool. 16 picks for Jonathan Quick, 12 each for Corey Crawford and Carey Price, and 6 for Henrik Lundqvist give 46 poolies an extra shot, especially if any of them nab a shutout.

Mitch's predictions
A 2-2 round two puts me at 9-3 on the year which might just be my best ever record thus far. Hooray for me! Let's see if I can nail the last three and get to .750. I'm calling the Hawks and the Habs. I might be wrong.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
David Loop was the hottest poolie in round two, jumping from 147th to 17th and topping the list with 51 points - and at this pace could crack the top three if all goes well in round 3. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
David Loop	130 (147,17)	David Loop	51
Michael Sheahan	111 (173,62)	Bill Garrity	50
Evan Hoey	101 (147,46)	Samuel Wexler	48
Fred Slade	90 (147,57)	Paul Martin	47
Shane Kozlowich	89 (135,46)	Karen Savoie	47
Paula Santin	88 (210,122)	Scott Lee	47

Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Todd Beaman	127 (61,188)	Myeongja Kim	0
Zack O'Gorman	109 (72,181)	Steve Feltz	7
Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff	99 (50,149)	Todd Beaman	9
Shawn Robichaud	88 (61,149)	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	12
Matteo de Brienne	85 (85,170)	Sohee Kim	12

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Anze Kopitar LOS 19 35

Marian Gaborik LOS 15 9

Ryan Getzlaf ANA 15 90

Zach Parise MIN 14 1

Evgeni Malkin PIT 14 54

Justin Williams LOS 11 1

Marian Hossa CHI 11 9

Jeff Carter LOS 11 11

Corey Perry ANA 11 83

Jonathan Toews CHI 10 44

Patrick Kane CHI 10 63

3 others with (ELIM) 10

Defense Team Pts Picks

PK Subban MON 12 22

Brent Seabrook CHI 11 2

Torey Krug BOS 10 10

Matt Niskanen PIT 9 21

Drew Doughty LOS 9 37

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Tuukka Rask BOS 18 122

Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 17 10

Corey Crawford CHI 13 12

Carey Price MON 13 12

Jonathan Quick LOS 13 16

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Chicago 294 17

Los Angeles 116 12

Montreal 68 8

NY Rangers 43 4

OUT Picks Cups

Boston 473 103

Pittsburgh 327 12

Anaheim 212 19

Minnesota 1 0

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2. So all four goalies should four wins, right?

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

3 1 1 Samuel Wexler 108 6 CHI 146
20 7 2 Paul Martin 101 5 MTL 132
147 17 3 David Loop 93 6 LAK 130
50 13 4 Frank Pileggi 95 6 CHI 129
15 2 5 Scott Lee 103 4 LAK 128
8 10 5 Stephen Craig 97 6 BOS 128
1 2 7 Brandon Kubis 103 4 ANA 126
20 14 8 Joan Coveny 94 6 BOS 125
72 39 8 Jay Dart 88 7 CHI 125
28 2 10 Bill Garrity 103 3 PIT 121
61 23 10 Peter Seemann 91 6 MTL 121
100 23 10 Craig Endicott 91 6 BOS 121
8 8 13 David Valenti 99 3 BOS 118
5 2 14 Judah Gould 103 2 ANA 117
15 39 14 Diego DeMarco 88 5 BOS 117
20 46 14 Jessica Thompson 87 5 LAK 117
85 31 14 Mouli Ramani 89 6 MTL 117
37 31 18 Julian Vardy 89 5 BOS 116
37 31 18 Ryan Thompson 89 5 BOS 116
135 74 18 Stephen Kennedy 83 6 MTL 116
5 14 21 Aaron Allard 94 3 BOS 115
85 74 22 Nolan Sarner 83 6 LAK 114
17 12 23 David Stemmler 96 3 BOS 113
173 62 23 Michael Sheahan 85 6 MTL 113
135 79 25 Steve Sealy 82 5 LAK 112
8 10 26 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 97 3 BOS 111
8 21 26 Dave Poitras 92 4 BOS 111
100 82 26 Ryan McLennan 81 6 LAK 111
8 31 29 Laura Tackaberry 89 3 LAK 109
20 17 29 Allan Boynton 93 4 BOS 109
147 57 29 Fred Slade 86 5 MTL 109
17 6 32 Karen Savoie 102 1 BOS 108
8 14 32 Peter Hogg 94 2 BOS 108
72 21 32 Sharon Boitson 92 3 MTL 108
37 105 35 Emma and Andrew Fielding 77 5 DET 107
61 99 35 Les Endes 78 6 CHI 107
37 39 37 Jessica Pigeon 88 4 BOS 105
50 68 37 Lindsey Baldwin 84 4 BOS 105
33 82 37 Ava McAdam-Beder 81 4 LAK 105
61 26 40 Luke McEachnie 90 3 BOS 104
37 46 40 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 87 4 BOS 104
20 31 42 Angela Yanyk 89 3 BOS 103
3 31 42 James Yanyk 89 3 BOS 103
197 114 42 Peta Allard 75 6 CHI 103
8 9 45 Scott Poitras 98 1 BOS 102
37 17 45 Alexander Bondarenko 93 2 BOS 102
5 17 45 Don Colangelo 93 2 BOS 102
20 26 45 Tommy Juranka 90 3 BOS 102
20 26 45 Max Porebski 90 3 ANA 102
85 31 45 Patrick Gill 89 3 BOS 102
61 39 45 Ryan Chirnomas 88 3 ANA 102
85 82 45 David Schamma 81 3 STL 102
2 46 53 Mitch Wexler 87 2 BOS 101
85 99 53 Mike Melanson 78 5 CHI 101
85 99 53 Graham Haines 78 6 BOS 101
61 26 56 Kristoff Porebski 90 2 ANA 100
50 39 56 Russell Reed 88 3 BOS 100
50 57 56 Todd Nemisz 86 3 BOS 100
37 57 56 Dennis Clayton 86 3 BOS 100
33 93 56 Mike Newbauer 80 3 STL 100
168 105 56 Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff 77 6 ANA 100
210 122 56 Paula Santin 73 6 MTL 100
147 128 56 Dave Michael 72 6 SJS 100
100 138 56 Chris McCluskey 70 6 DET 100
147 46 65 Evan Hoey 87 3 PIT 99
33 46 65 Terry Hoey 87 3 BOS 99
135 46 65 Shane Kozlowich 87 3 PIT 99
85 46 65 Brad Nemisz 87 3 BOS 99
72 46 65 Pette Chappell 87 3 BOS 99
28 23 70 Scott Anson 91 2 BOS 98
121 57 70 Elena Noble 86 3 BOS 98
61 98 70 Tim Sowden 79 5 BOS 98
28 39 73 Adam Bloedow 88 1 BOS 97
72 62 73 Harper Christie-Allard 85 3 CHI 97
85 62 73 Edward Levens 85 3 BOS 97
72 62 73 Siyeon Lee 85 3 BOS 97
37 31 77 Larry Coole 89 2 BOS 96
17 46 77 Scot Cowger 87 2 PIT 96
110 68 77 Jordan Ford 84 3 BOS 96
157 143 77 Brendan Hoey 69 6 NYR 96
50 82 81 Vince Pileggi 81 3 PIT 95
72 82 81 Ruth Beder 81 3 CHI 95
110 82 81 Amy van Steendelaar 81 3 BOS 95
110 79 84 Colin McSweeney 82 3 BOS 94
147 82 84 Ryan Dempsey 81 3 BOS 94
50 93 84 Pasqi Porco 80 3 BOS 94
157 132 84 Donna Thompson 71 3 LAK 94
157 122 84 Marie Loop 73 6 BOS 94
100 109 89 Brad MacDonald 76 4 BOS 93
110 99 90 Shane Davey 78 3 BOS 92
184 161 90 Trish Robichaud 66 6 CHI 92
85 68 92 Neil Poitras 84 2 BOS 91
110 68 92 Mark Brewster 84 2 BOS 91
85 26 94 Ryan Slack 90 0 BOS 90
28 109 94 John Thompson 76 3 BOS 90
110 156 94 Stephanie Robichaud 67 5 CHI 90
37 93 97 Matthew Warner 80 2 BOS 89
50 99 97 Blair Miller 78 2 BOS 89
147 109 97 Brad Hotson 76 3 BOS 89
110 122 97 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 73 3 CHI 89
85 39 101 Andrew Robichaud 88 0 BOS 88
20 68 101 Sal Scarfone 84 1 ANA 88
72 82 101 Krista Bensette 81 2 BOS 88
179 128 101 Ken Wilcox 72 4 BOS 88
72 46 105 Tyler Robinson 87 0 PIT 87
72 46 105 Aron Slipacoff 87 0 BOS 87
72 128 105 Martha Gill 72 3 CHI 87
135 57 108 Kristie Baran 86 0 PIT 86
173 116 108 Kyle Hogg 74 3 BOS 86
110 116 108 Randy Stewart 74 3 BOS 86
121 116 108 Sophie Wexler 74 3 BOS 86
157 116 108 Connor Brewster 74 3 ANA 86
168 138 108 Andrew Hart 70 3 CHI 86
179 138 108 Richard Gretzinger 70 3 SJS 86
100 62 115 Barrett Boitson 85 0 BOS 85
61 62 115 Eric Flint 85 0 ANA 85
33 82 115 Jason Feltz 81 1 BOS 85
85 170 115 Matteo de Brienne 64 4 CHI 85
28 68 119 Cooper Levens 84 0 BOS 84
37 93 119 Andrew Rudy 80 1 ANA 84
61 149 119 Shawn Robichaud 68 3 BOS 84
37 74 122 Della Santin 83 0 BOS 83
85 74 122 Mathew Seemann 83 0 BOS 83
37 74 122 Pierre Allard 83 0 BOS 83
168 173 122 Duncan Campbell 63 4 CHI 83
61 79 126 Nick Mechar 82 0 BOS 82
168 178 126 Paul Groba 62 3 LAK 82
121 82 128 Molly McNulty 81 0 BOS 81
50 82 128 Harris Beder 81 0 ANA 81
135 143 128 Vincent Galante 69 3 SJS 81
50 93 131 Ruth Haaima 80 0 BOS 80
121 122 131 Colin Sutherland 73 2 BOS 80
100 132 131 Roger Rooney 71 2 BOS 80
135 149 131 Aaron Pretto 68 3 BOS 80
121 149 131 Dave Spedding 68 3 BOS 80
37 114 136 David Lester 75 1 BOS 79
157 166 136 Mike Siegler 65 3 CHI 79
121 185 136 David Hart 59 3 LAK 79
157 99 139 Scott Munnoch 78 0 ANA 78
85 116 139 Brad Moulton 74 1 PIT 78
72 143 139 Shane Firth 69 2 BOS 78
179 143 139 Sanjay Talwar 69 2 ANA 78
192 143 139 Becke Gainforth 69 3 NYR 78
121 161 139 S Ripsman 66 3 BOS 78
121 105 145 Joy Smith 77 0 PIT 77
50 105 145 Alvin Gainforth 77 0 BOS 77
135 166 145 Carl Pledger 65 3 BOS 77
121 109 148 Vince DiNucci 76 0 SJS 76
100 109 148 Lanny Cardow 76 0 BOS 76
110 132 150 Christopher Mossey 71 1 BOS 75
173 132 150 Tim Smith 71 1 PIT 75
147 149 150 John Orsini 68 2 SJS 75
121 161 150 Thomas Jarman 66 2 SJS 75
121 116 154 Jake Poitras 74 0 BOS 74
173 132 154 Doug Graham 71 1 ANA 74
157 138 154 Ian Winsor 70 1 PIT 74
61 122 157 Brett Kirkpatrick 73 0 BOS 73
121 122 157 Tim O'Gorman 73 0 ANA 73
135 128 159 Chris Smith 72 0 BOS 72
50 149 159 Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff 68 1 SJS 72
100 132 161 David Minuk 71 0 BOS 71
135 156 161 Ron Wener 67 1 PIT 71
135 138 163 Janine Pileggi 70 0 BOS 70
157 161 163 Rob Phillips 66 1 BOS 70
135 161 163 Mark Norman 66 1 BOS 70
110 170 163 Jeff Snow 64 1 SJS 70
135 173 163 Frank DiGirolomo 63 2 SJS 70
147 183 163 Sean Sargent 60 3 NYR 70
110 193 163 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 57 3 DET 70
85 143 170 Keith Chappell 69 0 COL 69
147 173 170 Ron Ego 63 1 PHI 69
121 173 170 Dustin Hall 63 2 BOS 69
61 188 170 Todd Beaman 58 3 NYR 69
203 207 170 Mike van Steendelaar 49 5 LAK 69
72 149 175 George Smith 68 0 BOS 68
100 149 175 Jordan Reznick 68 0 SJS 68
192 173 175 Ted Kennedy 63 2 ANA 68
100 156 178 Andy Hotson 67 0 BOS 67
147 156 178 Fraser Macdonald 67 0 BOS 67
197 156 178 Jack Brownlee 67 0 ANA 67
157 188 178 Silvio Memme 58 3 BOS 67
173 193 178 Andrea De Petrillo 57 3 SJS 67
187 170 183 Kovi Smolack 64 1 BOS 66
157 166 184 Mike De Petrillo 65 0 BOS 65
197 166 184 Kevin Pinto 65 0 ANA 65
206 199 184 Pascal de Brienne 55 2 BOS 65
179 185 187 Brenden Kennedy 59 1 STL 63
208 202 187 Aaron Beder 53 3 SJS 63
121 178 189 Colin Laird 62 0 COL 62
184 178 189 Paul Smits 62 0 BOS 62
187 208 189 Sohee Kim 48 3 CHI 62
197 181 192 Gabe Pretto 61 0 ANA 61
72 181 192 Zack O'Gorman 61 0 SJS 61
187 193 192 Samara McAdam 57 1 SJS 61
173 183 195 Sam Fielding 60 0 PHI 60
192 202 195 Kevin Boomer 53 2 SJS 60
197 185 197 Brandon Poitras 59 0 BOS 59
179 201 197 Dave Quist 54 1 BOS 59
192 188 199 Andrew Ryan 58 0 SJS 58
157 188 199 Mel McNulty 58 0 SJS 58
197 188 199 Shannon Brewster 58 0 STL 58
213 209 202 Norrin Ripsman 47 3 STL 57
206 196 203 Avery Spedding 56 0 STL 56
184 196 203 Matthew Taylor 56 0 STL 56
192 196 203 Joel Borgida 56 0 COL 56
168 199 203 Douglas Wilkinson 55 1 BOS 56
212 211 207 Eli Hammerman 44 5 PHI 54
208 202 208 Laura Speciale 53 0 STL 53
187 205 209 Lee Beech 50 0 BOS 50
187 205 209 Stacy Martin 50 0 COL 50
211 210 211 Colin Kennedy 46 1 SJS 49
203 212 212 Stefano Pileggi 42 0 SJS 42
203 213 213 Desmond Desrosier 33 0 SJS 33
214 214 214 Steve Feltz 29 0 STL 29