Lord Stanley's Pool 2014 - Round 1 Analysis

It wouldn't exactly do round one justice to say that nothing much of significance happened. One division leader (Colorado, 61 picks) was eliminated in game seven overtime, and the epic Sharks-Kings battle was going to knock out over 100 picks either way. But compared to what we have been used to in recent years, the lack of upsets made things seem a little bit quiet, at least for the pool. That will make the real crunch time happen in about a week when we shrink from eight to four teams.

In total 392 player picks and 39 Cup picks were eliminated in the first round. That translates to 28% of player picks and 17% of Cup picks, with both of those numbers being in the middle of the pack compared to other pool years.

First round lead
Congratulations to Brandon Kubis on his first round lead with 62 points. Brandon had 33 of these points in the last seven days, outpacing Mitch Wexler, second place with 61 points, and Samuel Wexler and James Yanyk in third with 60 points. Mitch, however, lost three players while James lost one leaving Brandon and Samuel unscathed along with numerous challengers ready to make a charge in round 2. See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Unscathed or wiped out
There were 79 unscathed entries this year (37% of the total entries), second only to the 108 perfect records after round 1 in 2011. In contrast to last year when only two of 233 entries did not lose a player in round 1, while 26 entries were completely wiped out (both futility records), this year we are back to normal levels. Only one entry was completely wiped out in round 1 this year.

Colorado's top line the offensive story of Round 1 - until it all ended
Top scorers in this round had only 10 points, which is quite a bit lower than recent years, but the story throughout the round was the performance of Colorado's 18-year-old Nathan MacKinnon (8 picks) and linemate Paul Stastny (4 picks). MacKinnon seems to have no fear, scoring key goals including overtime winners and driving Colorado's success... until they lost in Game 7 in overtime. This unfortunately means no Patrick Roy Classic in the finals.

Late in the round MacKinnon and Stastny were joined by series opponent Zach Parise and LA's Anze Kopitar to lead scorers with 10 points. Pittsburgh pair Paul Martin (no picks, not even pool participant Paul Martin) and Matt Niskanen (21 picks) led all defensemen.

No advantage yet in goal
Tuukka Rask may have been the dominant pick in the pool (122 entries), he has only a one point advantage over Corey Crawford (12 picks) and Jonathan Quick (16 picks). This story has yet to play out.

Stay tuned for Biggest Bust award
We'll need to stay tuned until round 2 to award the Biggest Bust award, since all of the popular players have advanced. But the biggest disappointments so far have been David Krejci (2 points for 129 picks) and Zdeno Chara (1 point for 73 picks). Boston had better pick up its offensive output, or at least these guys better start producing or there will be many people not picking them again next year.

Biggest busts over the years: 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight Award
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. The Hindsight Award this year goes to James Yanyk for being the only one to pick Minnesota's Zach Parise, tied for the scoring lead with 10 points and counting going into round 2. Honourable mention goes to Brendan Hoey, who took Columbus defenseman Jack Johnson - who had 7 points but was eliminated.

Round 2 predictions
Oh so close to a perfect round, it came to Game 7 Overtime when Minnesota scored and ruined my picks. 7/8 isn't bad but that last one hurt! For round two, I'm taking Boston (though I'm cheering on the Habs), Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Los Anglees. I'm predicting a repeat final four as last year.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Pavelski, San, 47; Thornton, San, 29 picks; Pietrangelo, StL, 28; Giroux, Phi, 21; Marleau, San, 21; Landeskog, Col, 16; Boyle, San, 15; Reilly, Col, 14; Steen, StL, 14; Niemi, San, 12.

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards	Team	Pts	Picks
Zach Parise	MIN	10	1
Paul Stastny	COL	10	4
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	10	8
Anze Kopitar	LOS	10	35
Patrick Marleau	SAN	7	21
Jonathan Toews	CHI	7	44
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	7	54
Corey Perry	ANA	7	83
Ryan Getzlaf	ANA	7	90
14 players		6

Defense	Team	Pts	Picks
Paul Martin	PIT	8	0
Matt Niskanen	PIT	8	21
Jack Johnson	COB	7	1
Drew Doughty	LOS	7	37
Duncan Keith	CHI	7	102
Brent Seabrook	CHI	6	2
Goalies	Team	Pts	Picks
Tuukka Rask	BOS	10	122
Corey Crawford	CHI	9	12
Jonathan Quick	LOS	9	16

Teams

IN	Picks	Cups
Boston	473	103
Pittsburgh	327	12
Chicago	294	17
Anaheim	212	19
Los Angeles	116	12
Montreal	68	8
NY Rangers	43	4
Minnesota	1	0

OUT	Picks	Cups
San Jose	142	20
St. Louis	84	9
Colorado	61	4
Philadelphia	44	3
Detroit	27	3
Dallas	16	0
Tampa Bay	13	0
Columbus	5	0

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Rask would get another 10 points while David Krejci would only get 2.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank	Proj. Rank	Name	R2 Projection	R1 Pts.	Lost	IMP	IMP%	Cup
1	1	Brandon Kubis	124	62	0	0	0.0%	ANA
3	2	Samuel Wexler	120	60	0	0	0.0%	CHI
5	3	Don Colangelo	116	58	0	0	0.0%	BOS
5	3	Judah Gould	116	58	0	0	0.0%	ANA
3	5	James Yanyk	114	60	1	6	10.0%	BOS
8	5	David Valenti	114	57	0	0	0.0%	BOS
8	5	Scott Poitras	114	57	0	0	0.0%	BOS
8	5	Stephen Craig	114	57	0	0	0.0%	BOS
8	5	Thomas Cheyne Matheson	114	57	0	0	0.0%	BOS
8	5	Dave Poitras	114	57	0	0	0.0%	BOS
15	11	Scott Lee	112	56	0	0	0.0%	LAK
15	11	Diego DeMarco	112	56	0	0	0.0%	BOS
17	13	Karen Savoie	110	55	0	0	0.0%	BOS
17	13	David Stemmler	110	55	0	0	0.0%	BOS
20	15	Jessica Thompson	108	54	0	0	0.0%	LAK
20	15	Angela Yanyk	108	54	0	0	0.0%	BOS
20	15	Max Porebski	108	54	0	0	0.0%	ANA
20	15	Joan Coveny	108	54	0	0	0.0%	BOS
20	15	Allan Boynton	108	54	0	0	0.0%	BOS
20	15	Paul Martin	108	54	0	0	0.0%	MTL
20	15	Tommy Juranka	108	54	0	0	0.0%	BOS
28	22	Bill Garrity	106	53	0	0	0.0%	PIT
8	23	Peter Hogg	105	57	2	9	15.8%	BOS
20	23	Sal Scarfone	105	54	1	3	5.6%	ANA
33	25	Terry Hoey	104	52	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Jessica Pigeon	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Dennis Clayton	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Alexander Bondarenko	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Ryan Thompson	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	26	Julian Vardy	102	51	0	0	0.0%	BOS
17	32	Scot Cowger	101	55	2	9	16.4%	PIT
5	33	Aaron Allard	100	58	2	16	27.6%	BOS
28	33	Cooper Levens	100	53	1	6	11.3%	BOS
28	33	Scott Anson	100	53	1	6	11.3%	BOS
50	33	Russell Reed	100	50	0	0	0.0%	BOS
50	33	Frank Pileggi	100	50	0	0	0.0%	CHI
50	33	Todd Nemisz	100	50	0	0	0.0%	BOS
33	39	Ava McAdam-Beder	99	52	2	5	9.6%	LAK
2	40	Mitch Wexler	98	61	3	24	39.3%	BOS
8	40	Laura Tackaberry	98	57	3	16	28.1%	LAK
61	40	Tim Sowden	98	49	0	0	0.0%	BOS
61	40	Luke McEachnie	98	49	0	0	0.0%	BOS
61	40	Ryan Chirnomas	98	49	0	0	0.0%	ANA
61	40	Kristoff Porebski	98	49	0	0	0.0%	ANA
61	40	Peter Seemann	98	49	0	0	0.0%	MTL
33	47	Mike Newbauer	96	52	3	8	15.4%	STL
37	47	Larry Coole	96	51	1	6	11.8%	BOS
72	47	Ruth Beder	96	48	0	0	0.0%	CHI
72	47	Jay Dart	96	48	0	0	0.0%	CHI
72	47	Aron Slipacoff	96	48	0	0	0.0%	BOS
72	47	Tyler Robinson	96	48	0	0	0.0%	PIT
72	47	Harper Christie-Allard	96	48	0	0	0.0%	CHI
72	47	Pette Chappell	96	48	0	0	0.0%	BOS
72	47	Siyeon Lee	96	48	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	56	Emma and Andrew Fielding	95	51	3	7	13.7%	DET
28	57	Adam Bloedow	94	53	3	12	22.6%	BOS
37	57	Andrew Rudy	94	51	2	8	15.7%	ANA
33	57	Jason Feltz	94	52	1	10	19.2%	BOS
50	57	Blair Miller	94	50	1	6	12.0%	BOS
50	57	Pasqi Porco	94	50	1	6	12.0%	BOS
50	57	Lindsey Baldwin	94	50	1	6	12.0%	BOS
72	57	Sharon Boitson	94	48	1	2	4.2%	MTL
85	57	Edward Levens	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Patrick Gill	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Graham Haines	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Neil Poitras	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Ryan Slack	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Mike Melanson	94	47	0	0	0.0%	CHI
85	57	Brad Nemisz	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
85	57	Nolan Sarner	94	47	0	0	0.0%	LAK
85	57	Andrew Robichaud	94	47	0	0	0.0%	BOS
28	73	John Thompson	93	53	2	13	24.5%	BOS
37	74	Matthew Warner	92	51	2	10	19.6%	BOS
61	74	Eric Flint	92	49	1	6	12.2%	ANA
100	74	Ryan McLennan	92	46	0	0	0.0%	LAK
100	74	Craig Endicott	92	46	0	0	0.0%	BOS
37	78	Della Santin	90	51	2	12	23.5%	BOS
61	78	Nick Mechar	90	49	2	8	16.3%	BOS
72	78	Krista Bensette	90	48	1	6	12.5%	BOS
85	78	Mathew Seemann	90	47	1	4	8.5%	BOS
110	78	Randy Stewart	90	45	1	0	0.0%	BOS
110	78	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	90	45	0	0	0.0%	CHI
110	78	Mark Brewster	90	45	0	0	0.0%	BOS
110	78	Colin McSweeney	90	45	0	0	0.0%	BOS
110	78	Jordan Ford	90	45	0	0	0.0%	BOS
110	78	Shane Davey	90	45	0	0	0.0%	BOS
50	88	Alvin Gainforth	89	50	2	11	22.0%	BOS
85	89	Mouli Ramani	88	47	1	6	12.8%	MTL
100	89	Barrett Boitson	88	46	1	4	8.7%	BOS
121	89	Elena Noble	88	44	0	0	0.0%	BOS
50	92	Vince Pileggi	87	50	3	13	26.0%	PIT
50	92	Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff	87	50	3	13	26.0%	SJS
85	92	David Schamma	87	47	3	7	14.9%	STL
61	92	Les Endes	87	49	2	11	22.4%	CHI
85	96	Brad Moulton	86	47	3	8	17.0%	PIT
37	96	Pierre Allard	86	51	2	16	31.4%	BOS
135	96	Stephen Kennedy	86	43	0	0	0.0%	MTL
135	96	Shane Kozlowich	86	43	0	0	0.0%	PIT
135	96	Steve Sealy	86	43	0	0	0.0%	LAK
50	101	Harris Beder	85	50	3	15	30.0%	ANA
121	101	Molly McNulty	85	44	1	3	6.8%	BOS
72	103	Martha Gill	84	48	3	12	25.0%	CHI
121	103	Tim O'Gorman	84	44	2	4	9.1%	ANA
110	103	Amy van Steendelaar	84	45	1	6	13.3%	BOS
147	103	Ryan Dempsey	84	42	0	0	0.0%	BOS
147	103	David Loop	84	42	0	0	0.0%	LAK
147	103	Evan Hoey	84	42	0	0	0.0%	PIT
147	103	Fred Slade	84	42	0	0	0.0%	MTL
50	110	Ruth Haaima	83	50	3	17	34.0%	BOS
72	110	Shane Firth	83	48	3	13	27.1%	BOS
100	110	Chris McCluskey	83	46	3	9	19.6%	DET
100	110	Roger Rooney	83	46	2	9	19.6%	BOS
61	114	Shawn Robichaud	82	49	3	16	32.7%	BOS
100	114	Andy Hotson	82	46	3	10	21.7%	BOS
110	114	Stephanie Robichaud	82	45	2	8	17.8%	CHI
121	114	Sophie Wexler	82	44	1	6	13.6%	BOS
157	114	Marie Loop	82	41	0	0	0.0%	BOS
157	114	Connor Brewster	82	41	0	0	0.0%	ANA
37	120	David Lester	81	51	4	21	41.2%	BOS
85	120	Matteo de Brienne	81	47	4	13	27.7%	CHI
100	122	Lanny Cardow	80	46	3	12	26.1%	BOS
168	122	Andrew Hart	80	40	0	0	0.0%	CHI
168	122	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	80	40	0	0	0.0%	ANA
110	125	Christopher Mossey	79	45	3	11	24.4%	BOS
100	125	Brad MacDonald	79	46	2	13	28.3%	BOS
121	125	Vince DiNucci	79	44	2	9	20.5%	SJS
121	125	Colin Sutherland	79	44	2	9	20.5%	BOS
121	125	Thomas Jarman	79	44	2	9	20.5%	SJS
61	130	Brett Kirkpatrick	78	49	3	20	40.8%	BOS
135	130	Kristie Baran	78	43	2	8	18.6%	PIT
173	130	Kyle Hogg	78	39	0	0	0.0%	BOS
173	130	Michael Sheahan	78	39	0	0	0.0%	MTL
135	134	Chris Smith	77	43	3	9	20.9%	BOS
100	135	David Minuk	76	46	4	16	34.8%	BOS
135	135	Janine Pileggi	76	43	4	10	23.3%	BOS
135	135	Vincent Galante	76	43	2	10	23.3%	SJS
157	135	Ian Winsor	76	41	2	6	14.6%	PIT
157	135	Rob Phillips	76	41	2	6	14.6%	BOS
179	135	Sanjay Talwar	76	38	0	0	0.0%	ANA
121	141	Dave Spedding	75	44	3	13	29.5%	BOS
121	141	Joy Smith	75	44	3	13	29.5%	PIT
121	141	Jake Poitras	75	44	3	13	29.5%	BOS
121	141	S Ripsman	75	44	3	13	29.5%	BOS
147	141	John Orsini	75	42	3	9	21.4%	SJS
157	141	Donna Thompson	75	41	3	7	17.1%	LAK
157	141	Mike De Petrillo	75	41	3	7	17.1%	BOS
173	141	Doug Graham	75	39	1	3	7.7%	ANA
85	149	Keith Chappell	74	47	5	20	42.6%	COL
135	149	Mark Norman	74	43	3	12	27.9%	BOS
135	149	Frank DiGirolomo	74	43	3	12	27.9%	SJS
135	149	Aaron Pretto	74	43	3	12	27.9%	BOS
157	149	Scott Munnoch	74	41	3	8	19.5%	ANA
168	149	Paul Groba	74	40	3	6	15.0%	LAK
168	149	Duncan Campbell	74	40	3	6	15.0%	CHI
100	156	Jordan Reznick	73	46	4	19	41.3%	SJS
157	156	Brendan Hoey	73	41	2	9	22.0%	NYR
135	158	Carl Pledger	71	43	3	15	34.9%	BOS
121	159	David Hart	70	44	6	18	40.9%	LAK
192	159	Becke Gainforth	70	35	0	0	0.0%	NYR
72	161	George Smith	69	48	5	27	56.3%	BOS
135	161	Ron Wener	69	43	3	17	39.5%	PIT
157	161	Silvio Memme	69	41	3	13	31.7%	BOS
179	161	Brenden Kennedy	69	38	3	7	18.4%	STL
147	165	Sean Sargent	68	42	3	16	38.1%	NYR
147	165	Dave Michael	68	42	3	16	38.1%	SJS
179	165	Richard Gretzinger	68	38	3	8	21.1%	SJS
173	165	Tim Smith	68	39	2	10	25.6%	PIT
197	165	Kevin Pinto	68	34	0	0	0.0%	ANA
197	165	Jack Brownlee	68	34	0	0	0.0%	ANA
197	165	Peta Allard	68	34	0	0	0.0%	CHI
121	172	Colin Laird	67	44	5	21	47.7%	COL
147	172	Fraser Macdonald	67	42	3	17	40.5%	BOS
147	172	Brad Hotson	67	42	3	17	40.5%	BOS
184	172	Paul Smits	67	37	3	7	18.9%	BOS
179	172	Ken Wilcox	67	38	2	9	23.7%	BOS
187	172	Kovi Smolack	67	36	2	5	13.9%	BOS
72	178	Zack O'Gorman	66	48	6	30	62.5%	SJS
157	178	Mel McNulty	66	41	3	16	39.0%	SJS
110	180	Jeff Snow	65	45	5	25	55.6%	SJS
121	180	Dustin Hall	65	44	4	23	52.3%	BOS
157	180	Mike Siegler	65	41	3	17	41.5%	CHI
184	180	Matthew Taylor	65	37	3	9	24.3%	STL
173	184	Sam Fielding	64	39	4	14	35.9%	PHI
197	184	Gabe Pretto	64	34	3	4	11.8%	ANA
61	186	Todd Beaman	63	49	6	35	71.4%	NYR
147	186	Ron Ego	63	42	5	21	50.0%	PHI
187	186	Samara McAdam	63	36	3	9	25.0%	SJS
173	189	Andrea De Petrillo	62	39	3	16	41.0%	SJS
197	189	Brandon Poitras	62	34	3	6	17.6%	BOS
192	189	Ted Kennedy	62	35	2	8	22.9%	ANA
179	192	Dave Quist	61	38	5	15	39.5%	BOS
197	192	Shannon Brewster	61	34	3	7	20.6%	STL
110	194	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	60	45	6	30	66.7%	DET
184	194	Trish Robichaud	60	37	3	14	37.8%	CHI
192	194	Joel Borgida	60	35	3	10	28.6%	COL
210	194	Paula Santin	60	30	0	0	0.0%	MTL
187	198	Stacy Martin	59	36	3	13	36.1%	COL
192	199	Kevin Boomer	58	35	3	12	34.3%	SJS
192	199	Andrew Ryan	58	35	3	12	34.3%	SJS
203	201	Mike van Steendelaar	57	33	4	9	27.3%	LAK
206	201	Avery Spedding	57	32	3	7	21.9%	STL
208	203	Laura Speciale	56	31	3	6	19.4%	STL
187	204	Lee Beech	54	36	6	18	50.0%	BOS
168	204	Douglas Wilkinson	54	40	5	26	65.0%	BOS
187	206	Sohee Kim	53	36	6	19	52.8%	CHI
206	207	Pascal de Brienne	51	32	3	13	40.6%	BOS
208	208	Aaron Beder	49	31	3	13	41.9%	SJS
211	209	Colin Kennedy	48	29	4	10	34.5%	SJS
203	210	Stefano Pileggi	44	33	6	22	66.7%	SJS
213	211	Norrin Ripsman	42	24	3	6	25.0%	STL
212	212	Eli Hammerman	40	26	3	12	46.2%	PHI
203	213	Desmond Desrosier	33	33	9	33	100.0%	SJS
214	214	Steve Feltz	29	22	8	15	68.2%	STL