
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Jake Guentzel may not have been good enough to be picked by anyone, but he is good enough to lead scorers in round 1. |
An opening round with the favourites prevailing meant the second-lowest opening round pool knockout rate ever. 17.3% of picks were eliminated, ahead of 2011's 14.7% but far lower than the usual rate around 30%. By comparison, both 2016 and 2017 had over 43% eliminated.
The only losing team with more picks than its opponent was the Maple Leafs (238 to Boston's 222) but they were the lower seed and objectively should have been the underdog in the pool (but for the Toronto-area homers). The only lower-seeded team to win was San Jose, over Anaheim, but like the pundits' consensus the Sharks had more picks (100 to 64).
In terms of pool impact, Toronto's loss will be felt far less than Boston's would have. Boston leads the pool with 11.4 points per pick while the Leafs averaged a more typical 4.1.
So we continue into Round 2 with most of the rosters intact and get a second set of games with lots of points available.
It seems that that we have been seeing second-mosts and second-leasts so far this year, including Neil Poitras' 20-point night April 14 and the knockout rate as noted above. First-round leader Manny Amaral had the second-highest first-round point total ever with 76, just two shy of the record 78 set in 2010. Manny leads by two points over Colin McSweeney, with the trio of Ted Kennedy, Scott Poitras, and Joey Speciale a point behind Colin, tied for third. With only five points separating first from tenth and few picks eliminated, the second round will likely see more changes on the leaderboard.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below. (HINT: With few picks eliminated, the projections look similar to the round 1 standings.)
Much was made of Chicago's titanic failure last year, one of the worst flameouts of top-ranked teams, and which featured the lowest productivity rate (1.37 pts/pick) of any team whose picks make up at least 10% of the pool. This year's L.A. Kings didn't meet the 10% threshold with only 122 picks (3.9%) and certainly wasn't a top team, but their picks performed worse - an astonishingly bad 0.8 pts/pick - with only three goals scored by the team no points for Drew Doughty or Jonathan Quick.
Only three goals in a four-game series tied last year's Hawks for the third-lowest ever: in 2003 Minnesota scored only one goal against Anaheim but it was the conference finals, and Minny's players turned in a fine performance until then. The 2002 Flyers scored two goals in their first-round series against Ottawa (technically a five-game series), earning them the biggest bust award as a team.
If you ask the 340 out of 350 people in the pool who didn't bet on Vegas to win the Cup, they will say that they "wanted" to pick Vegas, or thought about it. I'm in that boat too! Wanted to pick them but could they get past L.A.'s muscle. Wanted to but went with a more realistic choice. Wanted to but who would take a chance on an expansion team? It's a feel good story for sure, and those 10 people are surely feeling good at the moment. A sweep of LA, with two shutouts and a balanced attack - they are looking pretty good right now. So without further ado: the 10 people who picked them to win. Marcia Chappell, Austin Neilson, Joy Smith, Andrew Mckenzie, Nathan Slack, Ryan Chirnomas, Bradley Hotson Jr, Stephanie Robichaud, Hanna-Marea Kennedy, and Lee Beech.
With the favourites going through to round 2, there were 150 entries unscathed - 43% of the pool, only the second time breaking the 40-mark. The record 53% was set in 2011, when 108 of 205 went untouched. Only one entry was wiped out in round one this year.
With most high picks performing well and their teams advancing, there aren't many busts this year. That said, tho players stand out. Austin Matthews comes close with only 2 points for 89 picks, but it could've been worse (like zero). This year's biggest bust award goes to L.A.'s Drew Doughty with no points for 45 picks. This is Doughty's second time earning this distinction.
Biggest busts over the years: 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year Jake Debrusk (Bos, 7 points) was picked only by Michael Parak and will continue into round 2. Sean Couturier (Phi, 9 pts) was picked by Yoon Ok Lee and Mike van Steendelaar but was eliminated. The best player nobody took is Jake Guentzel (Pit, 13 points), who was the fourth-leading scorer last year when only picked once - and he is tied for the scoring lead after round 1.
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 89 picks; Marner, Tor, 47; Kopitar, Los, 47; Doughty, Los, 45. Of these players, only Mitchell Marner's loss (9 pts) will be felt.
Hooray for me! For the first time since I began making series predictions in the pool analysis, I went 8 for 8! No bold predictions necessary for the feat this year, even Vegas felt right. So let's see if I can keep it going, though more likely my record will come crashing down along with my pool entry. Round 2 predictions: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Vegas.
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Jake Guentzel |
PIT |
13 |
0 |
| David Pastrnak |
BOS |
13 |
36 |
| Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
13 |
177 |
| Nikita Kucherov |
TAM |
10 |
162 |
| Sean Couturier |
PHI |
9 |
2 |
| Mitchell Marner |
TOR |
9 |
47 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
9 |
81 |
| David Krejci |
BOS |
8 |
3 |
| Nicklas Backstrom |
WAS |
8 |
20 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov |
WAS |
8 |
31 |
| Patrice Bergeron |
BOS |
8 |
35 |
| Alex Ovechkin |
WAS |
8 |
65 |
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| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Torey Krug |
BOS |
9 |
34 |
| John Carlson |
WAS |
9 |
40 |
| Kris Letang |
PIT |
7 |
47 |
| Brian Dumoulin |
PIT |
6 |
0 |
| Mattias Ekholm |
NAS |
6 |
0 |
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| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Marc-Andre Fleury |
VGK |
14 |
24 |
| Matt Murray |
PIT |
14 |
24 |
| Connor Hellebuyck |
WPG |
14 |
49 |
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| Teams |
| IN |
Picks |
Cups |
| Nashville |
601 |
114 |
| Pittsburgh |
550 |
49 |
| Tampa Bay |
452 |
50 |
| Winnipeg |
376 |
40 |
| Boston |
222 |
28 |
| Washington |
164 |
12 |
| Vegas |
141 |
10 |
| San Jose |
100 |
4 |
|
| OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
| Toronto |
238 |
32 |
| Los Angeles |
122 |
7 |
| Anaheim |
64 |
1 |
| Philadelphia |
54 |
0 |
| Columbus |
34 |
2 |
| Minnesota |
14 |
0 |
| New Jersey |
11 |
1 |
| Colorado |
7 |
0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Jake Guentzel of the Penguins would get another 13 points, and Marc-Andre Fleury, not of the Penguins, would get another four wins and two shutouts.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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