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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Jake Guentzel
Jake Guentzel may not have been good enough to be picked by anyone, but he is good enough to lead scorers in round 1.

Round 1 Analysis
An opening round with the favourites prevailing meant the second-lowest opening round pool knockout rate ever. 17.3% of picks were eliminated, ahead of 2011's 14.7% but far lower than the usual rate around 30%. By comparison, both 2016 and 2017 had over 43% eliminated.

The only losing team with more picks than its opponent was the Maple Leafs (238 to Boston's 222) but they were the lower seed and objectively should have been the underdog in the pool (but for the Toronto-area homers). The only lower-seeded team to win was San Jose, over Anaheim, but like the pundits' consensus the Sharks had more picks (100 to 64).

In terms of pool impact, Toronto's loss will be felt far less than Boston's would have. Boston leads the pool with 11.4 points per pick while the Leafs averaged a more typical 4.1.

So we continue into Round 2 with most of the rosters intact and get a second set of games with lots of points available.

First round leader neared record-high
It seems that that we have been seeing second-mosts and second-leasts so far this year, including Neil Poitras' 20-point night April 14 and the knockout rate as noted above. First-round leader Manny Amaral had the second-highest first-round point total ever with 76, just two shy of the record 78 set in 2010. Manny leads by two points over Colin McSweeney, with the trio of Ted Kennedy, Scott Poitras, and Joey Speciale a point behind Colin, tied for third. With only five points separating first from tenth and few picks eliminated, the second round will likely see more changes on the leaderboard.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below. (HINT: With few picks eliminated, the projections look similar to the round 1 standings.)

Kings of futility
Much was made of Chicago's titanic failure last year, one of the worst flameouts of top-ranked teams, and which featured the lowest productivity rate (1.37 pts/pick) of any team whose picks make up at least 10% of the pool. This year's L.A. Kings didn't meet the 10% threshold with only 122 picks (3.9%) and certainly wasn't a top team, but their picks performed worse - an astonishingly bad 0.8 pts/pick - with only three goals scored by the team no points for Drew Doughty or Jonathan Quick.

Only three goals in a four-game series tied last year's Hawks for the third-lowest ever: in 2003 Minnesota scored only one goal against Anaheim but it was the conference finals, and Minny's players turned in a fine performance until then. The 2002 Flyers scored two goals in their first-round series against Ottawa (technically a five-game series), earning them the biggest bust award as a team.

Betting on Vegas
If you ask the 340 out of 350 people in the pool who didn't bet on Vegas to win the Cup, they will say that they "wanted" to pick Vegas, or thought about it. I'm in that boat too! Wanted to pick them but could they get past L.A.'s muscle. Wanted to but went with a more realistic choice. Wanted to but who would take a chance on an expansion team? It's a feel good story for sure, and those 10 people are surely feeling good at the moment. A sweep of LA, with two shutouts and a balanced attack - they are looking pretty good right now. So without further ado: the 10 people who picked them to win. Marcia Chappell, Austin Neilson, Joy Smith, Andrew Mckenzie, Nathan Slack, Ryan Chirnomas, Bradley Hotson Jr, Stephanie Robichaud, Hanna-Marea Kennedy, and Lee Beech.

Unscathed or wiped out
With the favourites going through to round 2, there were 150 entries unscathed - 43% of the pool, only the second time breaking the 40-mark. The record 53% was set in 2011, when 108 of 205 went untouched. Only one entry was wiped out in round one this year.

Biggest Bust award
With most high picks performing well and their teams advancing, there aren't many busts this year. That said, tho players stand out. Austin Matthews comes close with only 2 points for 89 picks, but it could've been worse (like zero). This year's biggest bust award goes to L.A.'s Drew Doughty with no points for 45 picks. This is Doughty's second time earning this distinction.

Biggest busts over the years: 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight award
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year Jake Debrusk (Bos, 7 points) was picked only by Michael Parak and will continue into round 2. Sean Couturier (Phi, 9 pts) was picked by Yoon Ok Lee and Mike van Steendelaar but was eliminated. The best player nobody took is Jake Guentzel (Pit, 13 points), who was the fourth-leading scorer last year when only picked once - and he is tied for the scoring lead after round 1.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 89 picks; Marner, Tor, 47; Kopitar, Los, 47; Doughty, Los, 45. Of these players, only Mitchell Marner's loss (9 pts) will be felt.

Round 2 predictions
Hooray for me! For the first time since I began making series predictions in the pool analysis, I went 8 for 8! No bold predictions necessary for the feat this year, even Vegas felt right. So let's see if I can keep it going, though more likely my record will come crashing down along with my pool entry. Round 2 predictions: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Vegas.

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Jake Guentzel PIT 13 0
David Pastrnak BOS 13 36
Sidney Crosby PIT 13 177
Nikita Kucherov TAM 10 162
Sean Couturier PHI 9 2
Mitchell Marner TOR 9 47
Brad Marchand BOS 9 81
David Krejci BOS 8 3
Nicklas Backstrom WAS 8 20
Evgeny Kuznetsov WAS 8 31
Patrice Bergeron BOS 8 35
Alex Ovechkin WAS 8 65
Defense Team Pts Picks
Torey Krug BOS 9 34
John Carlson WAS 9 40
Kris Letang PIT 7 47
Brian Dumoulin PIT 6 0
Mattias Ekholm NAS 6 0
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Marc-Andre Fleury VGK 14 24
Matt Murray PIT 14 24
Connor Hellebuyck WPG 14 49
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups 
Nashville 601 114
Pittsburgh 550 49
Tampa Bay 452 50
Winnipeg 376 40
Boston 222 28
Washington 164 12
Vegas 141 10
San Jose 100 4
OUT Picks Cups
Toronto 238 32
Los Angeles 122 7
Anaheim 64 1
Philadelphia 54 0
Columbus 34 2
Minnesota 14 0
New Jersey 11 1
Colorado 7 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Jake Guentzel of the Penguins would get another 13 points, and Marc-Andre Fleury, not of the Penguins, would get another four wins and two shutouts.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
11Manny Amaral15276000.0%TBL
22Colin McSweeney14874000.0%PIT
33Ted Kennedy14673000.0%WPG
33Scott Poitras14673000.0%NSH
33Joey Speciale14673000.0%NSH
66Mark Brewster14472100.0%WPG
66Harper Christie-Allard14472000.0%NSH
66Corey Dickson14472000.0%NSH
66Nigel Fowler14472000.0%WPG
1010Brett Kirkpatrick14271000.0%BOS
1111Bryan Hill14070100.0%NSH
1111Erin Jones14070000.0%SJS
1413Nolan Sarner13467000.0%BOS
1514Dave Poitras13266000.0%BOS
1514Doug Frazier13266000.0%WPG
1514Alvin Gainforth13266000.0%NSH
1514John Upper13266000.0%PIT
1318John Mullins13068168.8%WSH
1918Sal Scarfone13065000.0%NSH
1918Jim Mehan13065000.0%NSH
1921Shain Griffin12865123.1%BOS
2221Ron Ego12864000.0%NSH
2221Nick Yu12864000.0%BOS
2221Paul Morrison12864000.0%WPG
2625Stephen Weir12663000.0%NSH
2625Jack Walker12663000.0%NSH
2625Robert Struthers12663000.0%WPG
2625Marcia Chappell12663000.0%VGK
2629Maria De Marco12463223.2%PIT
2629Christopher Mossey12463123.2%WPG
3329Elizabeth Klein12462000.0%NSH
3329Shane Kozlowich12462000.0%WPG
3329Peter Seemann12462000.0%PIT
3329Austin Neilson12462000.0%VGK
3329Dan Cleveland12462000.0%TBL
3329Steve Corda12462000.0%NSH
4037Shannon Lindensmith12261100.0%NSH
4037Kara Rive12261100.0%PIT
4037Paul Lepage12261000.0%PIT
4037Neil Poitras12261000.0%NSH
4037Luke McEachnie12261000.0%NSH
4037Daryl McGee12261000.0%PIT
4037Kevin Boomer12261000.0%NSH
4037Graham Haines12261000.0%NSH
4037Linda Veryzer12261000.0%PIT
4037Lauren Wyman12261000.0%WSH
5147Matthew Warner12060000.0%PIT
5147Andrew Wood12060000.0%BOS
5147Martin Lefebvre12060000.0%BOS
5147David Schamma12060000.0%BOS
5147Brandon Poitras12060000.0%NSH
3352Sam Kronis11962258.1%PIT
5153Chris Boyle11860123.3%PIT
5753Ron Wener11859000.0%BOS
5753Kris Tamchy11859000.0%TBL
5753Joy Smith11859000.0%VGK
5753Jeff Lucas11859000.0%NSH
5753Andrew Mckenzie11859000.0%VGK
5753Tom Nicholl11859000.0%PIT
5753King James (Jacob)11859000.0%WSH
5753JP Faubert11859000.0%NSH
5762Trevor Harding11659223.4%NSH
7062Blair Phillips11658000.0%WPG
7062Jamie Sarner11658000.0%WPG
7062Shawn Robichaud11658000.0%NSH
7062Mike Lapenna11658000.0%TBL
7062Barbara Kennedy11658000.0%WSH
7062Matt Steeves11658000.0%BOS
7062Sophie Wexler11658000.0%PIT
7062Alan Eng11658000.0%TBL
7062Darrin Husack11658000.0%PIT
8672David Valenti11457100.0%NSH
8672Avery Spedding11457000.0%TBL
8672Ryan Slack11457000.0%NSH
8672David Loop11457000.0%NSH
8672Manuela Marinello11457000.0%NSH
8672Dan Meister11457000.0%NSH
8672Michael McShane11457000.0%PIT
8672Andrew Ryan11457000.0%NSH
8672Mary Morrison11457000.0%NSH
8672Steven Hawley11457000.0%TBL
8672Anthony Fernando11457000.0%NSH
8672Aaron Allard11457000.0%NSH
8672Larry Coole11457000.0%TBL
8672Don Colangelo11457000.0%NSH
8672Keith Chappell11457000.0%NSH
8672Al Champsi11457000.0%NSH
8672Douglas Wilkinson11457000.0%NSH
8672Mitch Wexler11457000.0%WPG
5790Molly McNulty11359158.5%PIT
2291Aaron Pretto1126431625.0%WPG
7091Shailyn Griffin11258246.9%BOS
8691Erin Ash11257123.5%NSH
8691Connor Brewster11257123.5%BOS
11091Evan Hoey11256000.0%NSH
11091Greg Jones11256000.0%WPG
11091Aron Slipacoff11256000.0%NSH
11091Jacqui Snow11256000.0%WSH
11091Ethan Craig11256000.0%NSH
11091Mike De Petrillo11256000.0%NSH
11091Vince Pileggi11256000.0%PIT
11091Max Porebski11256000.0%TBL
86103Stacy Martin11157335.3%WPG
86103Shaun Tanna11157135.3%NSH
110103Hugh McShane11156111.8%PIT
26106Bruce Bird1106331625.4%TOR
110106Denise Allard11056323.6%LAK
57106Andrew Cionga110592813.6%SJS
110106Lucas Chua11056123.6%TBL
126106Tim Sowden11055100.0%PIT
126106Peta Allard11055000.0%SJS
126106Azra Champsi11055000.0%NSH
126106Jason MacLellan11055000.0%TBL
126106Blair Miller11055000.0%TBL
126106Mike Johnson11055000.0%WSH
126106Kapil Khatter11055000.0%TBL
126106Andrew Rudy11055000.0%NSH
70118Brad Hotson109583712.1%WPG
126119Silvio Memme10855323.6%WPG
126119Stacey Hartley10855223.6%PIT
126119Andy Hotson10855123.6%NSH
126119Carter Dwornikiewicz10855123.6%BOS
126119Sean Desjardins10855123.6%NSH
144119Dave Bagnell10854100.0%TBL
144119Gavin Bailey10854000.0%NSH
144119Tim Bailey10854000.0%TBL
144119Mitchell Prudence10854000.0%NSH
144119Matthew Pledger10854000.0%NSH
57129Paula Santin1075931118.6%WPG
70129Steve Kerlin107582915.5%WSH
126129Ronnie Weidner10755235.5%NSH
144129Geraldine Comeau10754111.9%PIT
40133George Smith1066131626.2%PIT
86133Neha Jethra106573814.0%PIT
144133Steven Rhodes10654323.7%TOR
144133Paul Groba10654323.7%WPG
144133Gary Brewster10654123.7%NSH
144133Tamara Kronis10654123.7%PIT
156133Stuart MacIntyre10653000.0%WPG
156133Nolan Ash10653000.0%NSH
156133Amelia Thompson10653000.0%PIT
156133Todd Nemisz10653000.0%TBL
126143Ethan Suski10555259.1%PIT
86144Stephen Craig1045731017.5%WSH
70144Michelle Heaphy1045821220.7%NSH
126144Randy Stewart104552610.9%NSH
156144Rachel Sinclair10453223.8%NSH
156144Cooper Levens10453223.8%WPG
156144Edward Levens10453123.8%NSH
156144Kamerni Pillay10453123.8%NSH
168144Tim Smith10452100.0%TBL
168144Jordan Reznick10452000.0%TBL
168144Shawn Morrison10452000.0%NSH
168144Sandra Hennigar10452000.0%NSH
168144Becke Gainforth10452000.0%NSH
168144Djen Choo10452000.0%TBL
57157Erin McSweeney1035931525.4%PIT
110157Emma and Andrew Fielding103563916.1%WPG
168159Anna Kwan10252223.8%NSH
168159David Cummings10252123.8%TBL
168159Mathew Seemann10252123.8%NSH
184159Jeff Wener10251000.0%PIT
184159Samuel Wexler10251000.0%NSH
184159Mohan Krishnamoorthy10251000.0%NSH
184159Dan Salerno10251000.0%PIT
184159Russell Reed10251000.0%PIT
184159Elena Noble10251000.0%WPG
184159Greg Devillers10251000.0%TBL
184159John French10251000.0%BOS
70170Jeff Ware1015831525.9%NSH
70170Matt MacDougall1015831525.9%TOR
110170Mel McNulty1015631119.6%NSH
110170Brian Secord1015621119.6%WPG
110170Marie Sealy1015621119.6%WPG
168170Ryan Chirnomas10152135.8%VGK
168170Allen Hou10152135.8%TBL
168177Jordana Wexler10052247.7%PIT
184177Samuel Bradbury10051123.9%PIT
184177Matt Hartley10051123.9%NSH
197177Dennis Clayton10050000.0%PIT
197177Joel Kronis10050000.0%NSH
197177John Thompson10050000.0%BOS
144183Mouli Ramani985431018.5%PIT
206183Phil Victor9849000.0%PIT
206183Peter Tanner9849000.0%WPG
206183Todd Beaman9849000.0%PIT
206183Todd Foster9849000.0%NSH
206183Sean Sargent9849000.0%NSH
144189Vincent Galante975421120.4%NSH
156189Natalie MacDonell97532917.0%NSH
197189Peter Jay9750236.0%TBL
110192Alex Cleveland965631628.6%NSH
156192Nathan Slack965331018.9%VGK
206192Brie Bento9649224.1%NSH
206192Maria French9649124.1%WPG
217192David Gibbons9648000.0%BOS
217192Tom Sheahan9648000.0%WSH
217192Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff9648000.0%TBL
217192Eli Hammerman9648000.0%NSH
217192Geoff Hebb9648000.0%PIT
217192Fred Slade9648000.0%TBL
217192Glenn Zyzanski9648000.0%TBL
206203Stefano Picone9549236.1%PIT
126204Fraser Macdonald945531629.1%TOR
126204David Hart945531629.1%WPG
156204Sean Smith945331222.6%TOR
197204David Litwin94503612.0%NSH
197204Nolan Coole94502612.0%WSH
228204Joan Coveny9447000.0%WPG
228204Shane Davey9447000.0%NSH
228204Cody Cabral9447000.0%NSH
228204Kento Onishi9447000.0%TBL
228204Amy van Steendelaar9447000.0%TBL
228214Aislyn Ash9347112.1%TBL
168215Greg Baca925221223.1%NSH
206215Jean Greenstein92492612.2%WPG
243215Joel Greenstein9246000.0%TBL
243215Farmer Lapenna9246000.0%WSH
243215Jami Bernier9246000.0%NSH
156220Elliott Silverstein915331528.3%NSH
184220Brad EJ Hotson915131121.6%VGK
228220Della Santin9147336.4%BOS
197223Richard Sookraj905041020.0%TOR
168223Domenic DeMarco905231426.9%TOR
184223Scott Munnoch905121223.5%NSH
254223Angelo DiCintio9045000.0%WPG
254223Kovi Smolack9045000.0%WPG
243228Hugh MacPhie8946336.5%WSH
197228Richard Crowe895021122.0%NSH
254228Adrian Terzo8945112.2%NSH
168231Richard Rikkonen885231630.8%TOR
197231Elan Gershone885021224.0%NSH
228231Dustin Hall88472612.8%NSH
243231Steve Sealy8846248.7%NSH
254231Samara McAdam8845224.4%NSH
254231Dave Quist8845224.4%BOS
254231King James (Josh)8845124.4%TBL
267231Milton Howe8844000.0%NSH
32231Michael Sheahan8844000.0%WSH
267231Ryan Thompson8844000.0%TBL
267231Fred Brown8844000.0%TBL
267231Travis Bergin8844000.0%PIT
184243Janine Pileggi875151529.4%PIT
168244Sara Morris Colter865251834.6%TOR
243244Trish Robichaud86462613.0%NSH
267244Laura Maratta8644124.5%PIT
267244Michael Varriano8644124.5%TBL
280244Fred McCutcheon8643100.0%TBL
280244Kerry McShane8643000.0%TBL
228250Chris Hebb85473919.1%TOR
267250Richard Tattersall8544336.8%NSH
206252David DeVries844931428.6%NSH
206252Laurena Clark844931428.6%TOR
228252Benoit Larocque844731021.3%NSH
280252Jeff Wood8443324.7%NSH
280252Owen Thompson8443324.7%PIT
290252Thomas Cheyne Matheson8442000.0%WPG
290252Jack Budd8442000.0%TBL
254259Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff83453715.6%WPG
243260Ruth Haaima824631021.7%PIT
243260Jeffrey Burke824631021.7%PIT
254260Diego DeMarco82453817.8%NSH
290260Siyeon Lee8242324.8%NSH
290260Norrin Ripsman8242324.8%NSH
267260Brandon Kubis82442613.6%BOS
217266Yoon Ok Lee814831531.3%BOS
228266Kristoff Porebski814731327.7%TOR
217268Patrick O'Keefe804831633.3%NSH
254268Ruth Beder804531022.2%TOR
290268Scott Lee8042349.5%NSH
296268Pierre Allard8041324.9%LAK
296268Stanley Tepner8041324.9%BOS
296268Dave Spedding8041324.9%TBL
303268Brian Bird8040100.0%NSH
303268Mike Griffin8040000.0%BOS
217276Dave Michael794851735.4%TOR
217276Colin Kennedy794841735.4%TOR
267276Harris Beder79444920.5%NSH
228276Isaac Nielsen794731531.9%NSH
228276Parvinder Saini794731531.9%WPG
243276Jono Schneider794631328.3%PIT
254276Mike Siegler794531124.4%WPG
243283Shannon Brewster784631430.4%TBL
280283Stephanie Robichaud78433818.6%VGK
303283Donna Thompson7840325.0%BOS
303283Ben Smith7840125.0%BOS
228287Michael Sinclair774751736.2%TOR
280287Chris Bolger77433920.9%NJD
280287Dolores Salken77433920.9%TOR
290287S Ripsman77423716.7%BOS
316291Michael Lau7638000.0%TBL
243292Rachelle Gaudet754651737.0%WPG
254292Craig Endicott754541533.3%WPG
296292Mark Norman75413717.1%NSH
296292Carl Pledger75413717.1%NSH
311292Desmond Desrosier7539337.7%BOS
280292Brock Vandrick754321125.6%PIT
311292Brian Hoang7539137.7%NSH
228299Jacob Johnson744742042.6%TOR
254299Jonas Struthers744531635.6%TOR
267299Duncan Campbell744431431.8%TOR
320299Rahul Gangolli7437000.0%TBL
267303Frank Iusi734431534.1%TOR
280303Marc Ennis734331330.2%CBJ
303303Jay Dart73403717.5%TBL
267306Jason Collette724431636.4%NSH
267306KC Swink724431636.4%TBL
320306Michael Parak7237325.4%BOS
320306Andrew MacIntyre7237325.4%LAK
303310Brad Moulton71403922.5%TOR
316310Chiara Cerzosimo71383513.2%WPG
320310Sam Fielding7137338.1%NSH
280313Josh Epstein704351637.2%PIT
316314Judah Gould69383718.4%NSH
326314Kevin Pinto6936338.3%TBL
328316Laura Tackaberry6835125.7%TBL
303317John Walsh674041332.5%PIT
316317Andrew Robichaud67383923.7%TOR
328317Rob Phillips6735338.6%NSH
320320Lee Beech66373821.6%VGK
331320Jessica Thompson6634325.9%TBL
333320Ryan Dempsey6633000.0%TBL
254323Shawn Glassford654552555.6%NSH
311323Richard Gretzinger653941333.3%TOR
296325Frank Pileggi644161843.9%TOR
320326Hugh Freedman633731129.7%NSH
333326Ava McAdam-Beder6333339.1%TBL
303328Marie Loop624061845.0%WPG
335328Aaron Beder6232226.3%TBL
311330Leif Malling613951743.6%WPG
326330Stefano Pileggi613641130.6%TOR
296332Hanna-Marea Kennedy594162356.1%VGK
311333Chris Hill563962256.4%NSH
331334Gareth Neilson553461338.2%ANA
339334Adam Bloedow55304516.7%BOS
343336Zack O'Gorman5428127.1%NSH
336337Alex Foroozandeh53315929.0%TOR
344338Crystal Smalldon50275414.8%TBL
341338Luke Borda50293827.6%TOR
341338Dryden Craig50293827.6%NSH
336341Rica French483131445.2%TOR
336342Tommy Juranka463151651.6%TOR
344343Drew Michael45274933.3%SJS
339344Laura Speciale433061756.7%LAK
348345Chris Smith41253936.0%TOR
347346Mike van Steendelaar382651453.8%LAK
349347Brenden Kennedy362461250.0%LAK
350347Ryan McLennan36226836.4%LAK
328349Yoon Sup Lee3535935100.0%CBJ
344350David Lester332772177.8%TOR







Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.