Lord Stanley's Pool 2018 - Final Analysis

The 2018 Lord Stanley's Pool had high scoring, lots of lead changes, and a wide open field. With the favourites marching through round one and playing strong into round 2, the pool took a turn as the top teams went down in round 2 and then round 3, leaving a small group of poolies to make up lost ground in the final weeks.

The cinderella run of the Vegas Golden Knights in their expansion year overshadowed a strong playoff by the Winnipeg Jets although both teams would have impact players. Nashville's round 2 elimination and Tampa Bay's lack of scoring despite going into the conference finals meant players from those teams underperformed compared to Pittsburgh, Boston, and of course the Cup champion Washington Capitals.

High scoring combined with plenty of shutouts resulted in a record high score for pool champion Joy Smith. Joy was one of only a few poolies with nine players after round 2 and six after round 3. She made the projected charge up the standings in the conference finals and took over the rest of the way, not worrying about the 10 bonus points she missed out on by picking Vegas to win.

Barbara Ellen Kennedy (2nd) and King James (Jacob) (3rd) had a similar rise in round 3, with young Jacob hitting the top three and Barbara the top 10 before Barbara was able to inch ahead in the final game by one point. Both took Washington to lift themselves onto the podium.

Rounding out the top 5 were Ryan Chirnomas, who was on track for 2nd place but for picking Vegas to win - instead of his D.C.-area home team as he would normally do - and Tom Sheahan, tied for 4th with 180 points. Proving once again that you don't need to be in the top half of the pool in the opening round, Tom climbed from 217th in April to finish on the leaderboard just out of the money.

Honourable mention to Scott Poitras, the only entry who stayed in the top 10 all four rounds, peaking at 1st after round 2 and finishing 8th.

Key to the pool
Each of the podium finishers took different paths to the top, but the key to the pool this year relied heavily on having three Washington players (and perhaps their Cup pick) as well as Marc-Andre Fleury as your goalie. That combination would put you within range depending on your complimentary picks. Filling those out with others from Vegas, Winnipeg, and even Pittsburgh or Boston were solid decisions, but not Tampa Bay even though they got to the conference finals. Multiple options but of course only a handful of people made these picks.

Dream Team
The best picks possible under the rules of the pool, the Dream Team is the combination of players you would have picked if you came back from the future with the sports almanac. Sidney Crosby is the only returning player from last year's team. Despite his team being eliminated in round 2, Crosby is on his third consecutive dream team and seventh overall, both records (fourth consecutive and eighth total including Shoot for Gold). Alex Ovechkin is on his second Lord Stanley dream team (last time 2009), the only other repeat winner. Jake Guentzel was good enough to make the team last year, but with three Penguin forwards having more points, had to be cut; he had another 21-point playoff giving him 42 points and only one pick over two seasons.

See all dream teams here.

2017 Dream Team
Forwards
Evgeni Kuznetsov, WAS, 32 (31 picks)
Alex Ovechkin, WAS, 27 (65 picks)
Reilly Smith, VGK, 22 (1 picks)
3 of:
  Jake Guentzel, PIT, 21 (0 picks)
  Jonathan Marchessault, VGK, 21 (31 picks)
  Blake Wheeler, WPG, 21 (131 picks)
  Sidney Crosby, PIT, 21 (177 picks)
Defense
John Carlson, WAS, 20 (40 picks)
Dustin Byfuglien, WPG 16 (43 pick)
Goalie
Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK, 34 (24 pick)
Team: Washington, 10
Dream Team Score: 224 points
Winning Score: 193 points

This year's pool records
There were a bunch of near misses of pool records this year. A 20-point night by Neil Poitras was only the second time someone had more than 18, but was one back of the record 21 set two years ago. Evgeny Kuznetsov's 32 points was second only to Evgeny Malkin's 36 in 2009 among all skaters. Scott Poitras and Joey Speciale tied the high score after round 2 with 135 points, while Joy Smith was one short of the round 3-record 171. But as noted above, Joy set the new all-time high, 193 points, and the same round-4 high (excluding Cup bonus). This year also saw the highest Dream Team score (224) as well as the most entries (350) in this ever-growing pool.

One more curse comes to an end
Like the Red Sox and Cubs in baseball, there are playoff curses in hockey and one of the most legendary were the Washington Capitals. No major D.C. team had won a championship since the NFL's Redskins in 1992, and in the case of the Capitals, despite numerous oustanding regular seasons and high expectations, they had no championships and only one finals appearance since their inception in 1974. Three times they went into the playoffs first overall in the NHL, only to lose in the first or second round. 43 seasons, one finals appearance (swept).

With that history in mind, and season after season of poolies betting on them - and their goalies, Olaf Kolzig and Braden Holtby - to win it all, it seems that the collective wisdom had finally sunk in. Their top seed meant nothing, and they were only the seventh-ranked team this year based on picks. Holtby was not picked even once. So what better year than this to prove everyone wrong? With the world distracted by the improbable run by Vegas, the Caps came in under the radar and finally won the top prize.

Fleury had something to prove
Holtby wasn't the only goalie with something to prove in these playoffs. Marc-Andre Fleury has three Stanley Cups but never got the respect of top goalies. In 2008 and 2009 he led the Penguins to the finals both years, winning once, but didn't receive top billing in the pool until 2012 and 2013, years when the Pens bowed out early. After no picks in 2015, he had a small number in '16 but took a back seat to Matt Murray as Pittsburgh won the Cup. In '16 Fleury again got no love (and no picks), but filled in for Murray until round 3 - putting him in the top three goalies last year. So this year on the expansion Golden Knights, Fleury was on a mission - and 24 poolies benefitted while he posted his best ever playoff with four shutouts and 34 points.

Hindsight awards
Special mention always goes to those who had the foresight to pick top-performing players who nobody else did. These are the "hindsight" awards because they are the picks everyone else would have picked in hindsight. Travis Bergen picks up the award this year for being the only one to choose Vegas' top forward Reilly Smith (22 points). Honourable mention to three people who picked T.J. Oshie (21 pts) - Ron Ego, Nathan Coole, and Farmer Lapenna. The best players that no one took: Braden Holtby (24 pts) and Jake Guentzel (21).