
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Mark Scheifele, the leading scorer among remaining players, set an NHL record with seven goals on the road against Nashville. |
A high-octane first half of the pool will give way to big changes in the second half. Lots of scoring, plenty of shutouts, and little bit of face licking led to record-tying pool totals. But with Boston's big numbers and the two top teams (Nashville and Pittsburgh) all eliminated, the top 50 have few players remaining.
The big questions will be how long it takes for the rest of the pool to catch up, and whether there will be enough offence and enough games remaining for them to do it.
Scott Poitras and Joey Speciale were tied for the lead with 135 points - tying the record-high score after two rounds set in 2009. Stephen Weir, two points back in third, had 70 points in Round 2, the second highest ever (record 78 R2 points also set in 2009). But both Scott and Stephen have only three players reaining, while Joey has been wiped out.
In the Top 50 only five poolies have more than six players remaining - three with seven players, one with eight and one with nine. Five of the top ten and nine of the top 50 have no players left.
A look at the projections below shows that there is indeed a lot of room for upward movement. An entirely new top 10 is projected by the end of round 3, with an entry as low as 64th (Robert Struthers) within range of the leaderboard. Joy Smith, the top entry with a full nine, has the inside track to lead while King James (Jacob) projects second, followed by Ted and Barbara Kennedy and Larry Coole rounding out the top five if all players continue at their current pace. See the projections below.
Congrats to the following five people who still have a full deck of nine players remaining, plus a few with 8 or 7:
Joy Smith - 32nd, R3 Projection: 1, VGK to win, WAS, TAM 3 each, Fleury in net
Robert Struthers - 64th, R3 Projection: 6, WPG to win, WAS, TAM 3 each
Ryan Dempsey - 202nd, R3 Projection: 62, TAM to win, WPG, VGK 3 each
Rahul Gangolli - 211th, R3 Projection: 63, TAM to win, WPG, VGK 3 each
Fred Brown - 211th, R3 Projection: 63, TAM to win, WAS, VGK 3 each
8 players:
Barbara Ellen Kennedy - 43rd, R3 Projection: 4, WAS to win, 3 WPG, 2 VGK
7 players:
King James (Jacob) - 15th, R3 Projection: 2, WAS to win, 2 VGK, 2 WAS, Fleury in net
Larry Coole - 27th, R3 Projection: 4, TAM to win, 2 WPG, 2 VGK, Fleury in net
Ryan Chirnomas - 48th, R3 Projection: 6, VGK to win, 3 WAS, 1 WPG, Fleury in net
Tom Sheahan - 56th, R3 Projection: 11, WAS to win, 3 WPG, 1 TAM
Jacqui Snow - 59th, R3 Projection: 18, WAS to win, 3 VGK, 1 TAM, Fleury in net
Tim Bailey - 70th, R3 Projection: 20, TAM to win, 2 WPG, 2 WAS
Steve Kerlin - 122nd, R3 Projection: 22, WAS to win, 2 TAM, 1 WPG, 1 VGK, Fleury in net
The question was asked what was the biggest deficit after round 2 that was overcome to land in the final top three. A look back in the standings reveals the answer came just last year. In 2017 Matt Steeves was 27 points behind the leader after round 2, and came back to win. The lowest round 2 standing to come back was Dennis Clayton in 2011, 67th place to first. In terms of the podium finishes, last year Jessica Thompson - who had numerous late-round comebacks in her four year dynasty - was 38 points back in 89th after round 2 and rallied to finish second, the biggest podium comeback in both points and standing.
To re-enforce why the top of the standings are so vulnerable, consider this. All of the top five scorers have been eliminated, and most of the top 10 defensemen (other than Dustin Byfuglien and John Carlson in first and third).
Like many people I was wrong in picking Pittsburgh to defeat Washington for the millionth year in a row. So that was my only mistake so far this year... 11-1 is much better than my usual mediocre showing! For round three I'm going to predict the stopping of the unstoppable Vegas train, and I'm sticking with Tampa because that was my pick (honesty is the best policy!), even though the Caps have embarrassed them the first two games. Winnipeg vs Tampa in the final, see you there.
Fred Slade and Stephen Weir were the hottest poolies in round two, with Fred jumping from 217th to 39th and Stephen topping the list with 70 points to move into third place in the pool. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:
| Hot |
Pos. Gain (R1, R2) |
|
Hot |
Rd2 Pts. |
| Fred Slade |
178 (217,39) |
|
Stephen Weir |
70 |
| Cody Cabral |
164 (228,64) |
|
Al Champsi |
69 |
| Tom Sheahan |
161 (217,56) |
|
Dan Meister |
68 |
| Eli Hammerman |
158 (217,59) |
|
Fred Slade |
68 |
| Angelo DiCintio |
152 (254,102) |
|
King James (Jacob) |
67 |
|
|
|
Shawn Robichaud |
67 |
| Not |
Pos. Loss (R1, R2) |
|
Not |
Rd2 Pts. |
| Erin McSweeney |
205 (57,262) |
|
Yoon Sup Lee |
0 |
| Sara Morris Colter |
149 (168,317) |
|
Crystal Smalldon |
10 |
| Bruce Bird |
134 (26,160) |
|
David Lester |
15 |
| Sam Kronis |
133 (33,166) |
|
Frank Pileggi |
15 |
| Mouli Ramani |
129 (144,273) |
|
Sara Morris Colter |
16 |
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Jake Guentzel |
PIT |
21 |
0 |
| Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
21 |
177 |
| David Pastrnak |
BOS |
20 |
36 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
17 |
81 |
| Patrice Bergeron |
BOS |
16 |
35 |
| Mark Scheifele |
WPG |
16 |
51 |
| Filip Forsberg |
NAS |
16 |
145 |
| Alex Ovechkin |
WAS |
15 |
65 |
| Blake Wheeler |
WPG |
15 |
131 |
| Paul Stastny |
WPG |
14 |
1 |
| Ryan Johansen |
NAS |
14 |
19 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov |
WAS |
14 |
31 |
|
| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Dustin Byfuglien |
WPG |
13 |
43 |
| Torey Krug |
BOS |
12 |
34 |
| John Carlson |
WAS |
11 |
40 |
| Kris Letang |
PIT |
11 |
47 |
| P.K. Subban |
NAS |
9 |
157 |
| Matthias Ekholm |
NAS |
8 |
0 |
| Justin Schultz |
PIT |
8 |
1 |
| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Marc-Andre Fleury |
VGK |
28 |
24 |
| Connor Hellebuyck |
WPG |
18 |
49 |
| Pekka Rinne |
NAS |
17 |
151 |
| Martin Jones |
SAN |
16 |
3 |
| Matt Murray |
PIT |
16 |
24 |
|
| Teams |
| IN |
Picks |
Cups |
| Tampa Bay |
452 |
50 |
| Winnipeg |
376 |
40 |
| Washington |
164 |
12 |
| Vegas |
141 |
10 |
|
| OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
| Nashville |
601 |
114 |
| Pittsburgh |
550 |
49 |
| Boston |
222 |
28 |
| San Jose |
100 |
4 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after
round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you
have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 0
1 and 2. So Marc-Andre Fleury would need another 2 shutouts and 4 wins.
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