
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Brent Burns had a relatively slow round one, but poured it on in the second round. |
Editor's note: If you haven't already, check out the Round 1 Analysis first, as it tells the story of the pool. Then, return here for this smaller (and more contestant-focused) update.
With relatively little left to start round 2, the focus turned to the pool survivors and who would take advantage to position themselves for the run to the Lord Stanley's Pool podium.
After Myeongja Kim shook off Brandon Poitras in first place early in the round, Della Santin held the top spot for a day before Paul Groba, betting on Columbus (and San Jose) and taking advantage of their continued success, took charge of the leaderboard with a five point lead. Paul held the lead for nine days during the bulk of round 2 before Boston eliminated the Blue Jackets on May 6 and Tuukka Rask's shutout lifted Della into the top spot.
Della now looks to solidify her lead with six players from Boston and San Jose, and the projection (below) shows this to be extremely likely - expecting a 12-point margin by the end of the round. Unless Carolina and St. Louis both breeze their way into the finals, Della may be locked in for the top prize.
Only eight poolies have six players left, giving this group a distinct advantage.
Here are the contenders with six-players left and a chance to place on the podium. See the projections below for more.
Della Santin - 1st, R3 Projection: 1, BOS to win, BOS, SAN 3 each, Rask in net
Myeongja Kim - 3rd, R3 Projection: 4, BOS to win, BOS, STL 3 each
Shawn Robichaud - 4th, R3 Projection: t2, (TAM to win), BOS, SAN 3 each, Rask in net
David Schamma - 5th, R3 Projection: t2, BOS to win, BOS, SAN 3 each, Rask in net
S Ripsman - 8th, R3 Projection: 6, (NAS to win), BOS, SAN 3 each
Adam Marrus - 16th, R3 Projection: 6, (TAM to win), SAN, STL 3 each, Binnington in net
After a 1-8 round 1, I continued going with the "favourites" in round 2, with much better results. I was wrong on the Islanders, but correct on the other three putting me at 4-9 after round 2. For the conference finals I'm picking Boston and St. Louis. Yes San Jose's looking good, but St. Louis is a better story so I'm sticking with that!
The Round 1 hindsight awards were not enough, as new surprises surfaced in Round 2. While Mikko Rantanen continued his play and ended with 14 points for his two pickers, Colorado goalie Philipp Grubauer had 13 points for Andrew Robichaud before elimination. Mats Zuccarello of Dallas came on strong with 11 points for Stephanie Robichaud before his team bit the dust. Top unpicked players: Petr Mrazek continues to lead the pool with 15 points and Timo Meier is alive and strong with 13.
Stephanie Robichaud and Della Santin were the hottest poolies in round two, with Stephanie jumping from 204th to 57th and Della collecting 35 points to move into first place in the pool. Della, Shawn Robichaud, and David Schamma's 35 round 2 points are the second-lowest-ever round 2 high, beating only the inaugural 1998 pool's 27. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:
| Hot |
Pos. Gain (R1, R2) |
|
Hot |
Rd2 Pts. |
| Stephanie Robichaud |
147 (204,57) |
|
Della Santin |
35 |
| Alfonso Acosta |
143 (276,133) |
|
Shawn Robichaud |
35 |
| Jamie Sarner |
139 (250,111) |
|
David Schamma |
35 |
| Mouli Ramani |
138 (285,147) |
|
Paul Groba |
34 |
| John Thompson |
133 (216,83) |
|
Ryan McLennan |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Not |
Pos. Loss (R1, R2) |
|
Not |
Rd2 Pts. |
| Todd Foster |
93 (75,168) |
|
139 tied with: |
0 |
| Dave Michael |
93 (75,168) |
|
|
|
| Siyeon Lee |
92 (81,173) |
|
|
|
| Timmy Day |
92 (81,173) |
|
|
|
| 5 tied at: |
91 |
|
|
|
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
14 |
2 |
| Tomas Hertl |
SAN |
14 |
16 |
| Logan Couture |
SAN |
14 |
25 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
14 |
69 |
| Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
13 |
9 |
| Mark Stone |
VGK |
12 |
23 |
| Jaden Schwartz |
STL |
11 |
0 |
| Mats Zuccarello |
DAL |
11 |
1 |
| Max Pacioretty |
VGK |
11 |
2 |
| Artemi Panarin |
COB |
11 |
2 |
| Tyler Seguin |
DAL |
11 |
14 |
| David Pastrnak |
BOS |
11 |
36 |
|
| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Brent Burns |
SAN |
14 |
68 |
| Erik Karlsson |
SAN |
12 |
19 |
| Jaccob Slavin |
CAR |
11 |
0 |
| Alex Pietrangelo |
STL |
11 |
25 |
| Seth Jones |
COL |
9 |
0 |
| John Klingberg |
DAL |
6 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Petr Mrazek |
CAR |
15 |
0 |
| Philipp Grubauer |
COL |
13 |
1 |
| Tuukka Rask |
BOS |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Teams |
| IN |
Picks |
Cups |
| Boston |
184 |
23 |
| San Jose |
149 |
8 |
| St. Louis |
130 |
6 |
| Carolina |
19 |
1 |
|
| OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
| Dallas |
49 |
3 |
| NY Islanders |
29 |
3 |
| Colorado |
23 |
1 |
| Columbus |
8 |
1 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after
round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you
have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 0
1 and 2. So Marc-Andre Fleury would need another 2 shutouts and 4 wins.
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