
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Mark Stone put on quite a show in round 1, until he too was eliminated. |
Editor's note: Read these round 1 notes first. Then after, catch up with the smaller (and more contestant-focused) round 2 update.
I've used a lot of superlatives, both good and bad, over 21 years of Lord Stanley's Pool. But there aren't any words to describe what happened in 2019. The numbers speak for themselves, so let's get to some.
Perhaps the most jarring is the number of people completely wiped out of picks. In 2012, previously the outlier of first-round upsets, had 11.2% of entries lose all nine picks in round one. No other year had more than 4.5% and all but one other year were under 2%. This year, 39.8% of entries are wiped out. In 2012 there were 26 entries wiped out, with no other year over five (two or fewer in 16 of 21 pools). This year, 139 entries are wiped out.
There is simply no comparison to what's happened this year in the pool or, likely, in NHL history.
It was so bad that it knocked out our servers and prevented access to the data for 18 days! (Yes, that's a joke but seriously, thank you to everyone for your patience and support during that time, and especially the half of the pool who made an effort to help in rebuilding the data.)
81% of all picks in the pool (2,550 of 3,141), and 87% of Cup picks (304 of 349) are one and done. This destroys the previous highs (64.5% of picks in 2012, 72% of Cup picks in 2003) and is only the third time for each that we are over 50%.
All of the top six teams were eliminated, including all four division winners. That the top team, Tampa Bay, was the heaviest favourite in pool history, made it that much more incredible. Tampa had 26.1% of all player picks (of a max. 33.3%) and 58.5% of Cup picks, both new records. Calgary (11th) and Washington (17th) were also in the top 20 for most picks lost in round one, out of the 336 teams in pool history.
Along with that went all of the top-picked players: The entire common player card is out, something never approached in previous years. The 2012 outlier saw the top three forwards, top three defense and third-ranked goalie knocked out; this year we had all of the top 8 forwards (11 of the top 12), top 2 defence (6 of the top 8), and top 4 goalies (6 of the top 7) eliminated.
So let's revisit and update our Worst First-Round Upsets chart from 2012:
| Player Picks Lost R1, One Team | Cup Picks Lost R1, One Team |
| Year | Tot.Picks | Team | Lost | Percentage (max 33.33) |
| 2019 | 3141 | Tampa Bay | 819 | 26.07 |
| 2010 | 1773 | Washington | 444 | 25.04 |
| 2012 | 2097 | Pittsburgh | 491 | 23.41 |
| 2003 | 603 | Detroit | 133 | 22.06 |
| 2003 | 603 | Colorado | 131 | 21.72 |
| 2006 | 936 | Detroit | 194 | 20.73 |
| 2009 | 1665 | San Jose | 302 | 18.14 |
| 2000 | 297 | St. Louis | 52 | 17.51 |
| 2012 | 2097 | Vancouver | 356 | 16.97 |
| 1998 | 144 | New Jersey | 22 | 15.28 |
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| Year | Entries | Team | Lost | Percentage |
| 2019 | 349 | Tampa Bay | 204 | 58.45 |
| 2012 | 233 | Pittsburgh | 101 | 43.35 |
| 2010 | 197 | Washington | 61 | 30.96 |
| 2009 | 185 | San Jose | 55 | 29.73 |
| 2017 | 273 | Chicago | 72 | 26.37 |
| 2006 | 104 | Detroit | 27 | 25.96 |
| 2003 | 67 | Detroit | 17 | 25.37 |
| 2003 | 67 | Colorado | 16 | 23.88 |
| 2003 | 67 | Toronto | 15 | 22.39 |
| 1998 | 16 | New Jersey | 3 | 18.75 |
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Worst first-round upsets in pool history (top 10)
| Player Picks Lost R1, Year | Cup Picks Lost R1, Year |
| Year | Entries | Tot.Picks | Lost | Percentage |
| 2019 | 349 | 3141 | 2550 | 81.18 |
| 2012 | 233 | 2097 | 1352 | 64.47 |
| 2003 | 67 | 603 | 353 | 58.54 |
| 1998 | 16 | 144 | 72 | 50.00 |
| 2006 | 104 | 936 | 444 | 47.44 |
| 2016 | 261 | 2349 | 1039 | 44.23 |
| 2017 | 273 | 2457 | 1059 | 43.10 |
| 2010 | 197 | 1773 | 685 | 38.64 |
| 2002 | 39 | 351 | 110 | 31.34 |
| 2000 | 33 | 297 | 90 | 30.30 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 2001 | 40 | 360 | 64 | 17.78 |
| 2018 | 350 | 3150 | 544 | 17.27 |
| 2011 | 205 | 1845 | 271 | 14.69 |
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| Year | Entries | Lost | Percentage |
| 2019 | 349 | 304 | 84.11 |
| 2003 | 67 | 48 | 71.64 |
| 2012 | 233 | 161 | 69.10 |
| 2016 | 261 | 116 | 44.44 |
| 2006 | 104 | 46 | 44.23 |
| 2010 | 197 | 84 | 42.64 |
| 2017 | 273 | 104 | 38.10 |
| 2009 | 185 | 65 | 35.14 |
| 1998 | 16 | 5 | 31.25 |
| 2000 | 33 | 7 | 21.21 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 1999 | 18 | 2 | 11.11 |
| 2011 | 205 | 13 | 6.34 |
| 2001 | 40 | 1 | 2.50 |
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First round performance by year (top 10 worst, top 3 best)
So best of luck to the small segment of the pool now in the running, those who picked Boston, San Jose and St. Louis in particular, and the few who presciently picked Carolina, Colorado, or Columbus. And for the rest of us, hopefully you will stick around to see what happens.
Much was made of Chicago's titanic failure two years ago, one of the worst flameouts of top-ranked teams, and which featured the lowest productivity rate (1.37 pts/pick) of any team whose picks make up at least 10% of the pool. Tampa Bay, as I'm sure you've figure out by now, has lowered the bar (1.26).
They aren't the only new entries to this futility list. Our other conference leader, Calgary, is the third worst behind Tampa and '17 Chicago, and shouldn't be forgotten. (Notably, Pittsburgh, though having fewer than the 10% of picks threshhold, clocked in at 1.28.)
| Most Points/Pick | Fewest Points/Pick |
| Year | Team | Picks | Entries | % of Pool | Pts/Pick |
| 2009 | Pittsburgh | 176 | 185 | 10.6 | 29.04 |
| 2001 | New Jersey | 98 | 40 | 27.2 | 23.64 |
| 2010 | Chicago | 283 | 197 | 16 | 23.26 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 353 | 189 | 20.8 | 22.48 |
| 2011 | Vancouver | 452 | 205 | 24.5 | 22.45 |
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| Year | Team | Picks | Entries | % of Pool | Pts/Pick |
| 2019 | Tampa Bay | 819 | 349 | 26.1 | 1.26 |
| 2017 | Chicago | 578 | 273 | 23.5 | 1.37 |
| 2019 | Calgary | 526 | 349 | 16.8 | 1.70 |
| 2003 | Detroit | 133 | 67 | 22.1 | 1.90 |
| 2016 | Los Angeles | 281 | 261 | 12 | 2.18 |
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Best and worst team performances, points per pick (min 10% of pool - of max 33.3%)
If it weren't for Tampa Bay's scorers finally finding the mesh in Game 4, they were on track for being the worst team ever, regardless of the number of picks. The 2002 Flyers scored two goals in their first-round series against Ottawa (a five-game series), earning them the biggest bust award as a team, and a legendarily bad 0.3 points per pick. Yet, up to game 3, the Lightning were far, far worse. Because of the sheer number of picks relying on Kucherov, Stamkos, and Point (not to mention Hedman and Vasilevskiy) and their having 0 total until game 3, the team's points per pick was sitting at... 0.009 (rounded up). They forwards had 5 points in game 4, multiplied by hundreds of picks, and they ended at their "respectable" 1.26.
Congratulations to the top contestants in round one for picking wisely and surviving the carnage. Nobody was unscathed, in fact only two poolies - Shawn Robichaud and Alfonso Acosta, lost only two players. Everyone else lost at least three. Only 7 of the top 30 have more than three players remaining.
Leading the pool after round 1 is Myeongjia Kim, with 58 points and six players left from Boston and St.Louis. Myeongia is tied with co-leader Brandon Poitras, who has three remaining, while Domenic DeMarco and Mike Johnson are one point behind but won't likely challenge. Mike Siegler, with six from Boston and Dallas, and Della Santin, with six from Boston and San Jose, are three points back and are the true challengers. Della is projected to lead after round 2 by three points over Mike with Myeongjia in third, while Shawn Robichaud and Paul Groba (the only poolie who picked Columbus to win) are expected to round out the top 5.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
As noted in the opening paragraph of this report, nothing can compare with what happened this year. Unscathed? No one. Wiped out completely? 40% of entries. 'Nuff said.
There were so many busts to choose from this year, and it was very close to being a 2002-like "entire Tampa roster". Kucherov would have been the natural choice with an astounding 274 picks, but he collected two points in game four. The "winner" of this award with 0 points for 187 contestants in the critical goaltending slot: Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Biggest busts over the years: 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year there was a really big opening but few people capitalized... with so many picking those fateful favourites. So even bigger than normal kudos to Frank Varriano and Mel McNulty for picking Mikko Rantanen (Col, 9 points) who will continue into round 2. Better in round 1 with 11 points but knocked out in Game 7 was Max Pacioretty (VGK, 11 pts), picked only by Ruth Haaima and Mohan Krishnamoorthy. The best players nobody took are defenseman Jaccob Slavin and goaltender Petr Mrazek, (both Carolina, 9 picks). Mrazek leads all goalies and Slavin is tied atop the defense list.
Major players on their way out: All of them!! This year it will be easier to list the major players remaining: Marchand, Bos, 69 picks; Burns, San, 68; Tarasenko, StL, 44; O'Reilly, StL, 36; Pastrnak, Bos, 36; Bergeron, Bos, 35; Pietrangelo, StL, 25; Couture, San, 25; Karlsson, San, 19; Krug, Bos, 19; Binnington, StL, 18. Not much to spread over 349 entries.
Famous last words. In my Round 1 series predictions I wrote that "this may be the year the heavy favourite coasts through," and I wrote even after Tampa's game 1 meltdown. And so it went for all but one of my predictions. 1 for 8 !! Even my one underdog pick (Vegas) lost. I was thinking about picking the Avs over Calgary, but then changed it (yes, I'm stretching for good things to say). Ok here are my genuine Round 2 picks. I am sticking with the favourites... the new ones, anyway. Boston, Islanders, St. Louis and San Jose.
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Mark Stone |
VGK |
12 |
23 |
| Max Pacioretty |
VGK |
11 |
2 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
9 |
2 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
9 |
69 |
| Alex Ovechkin |
WAS |
9 |
156 |
| Paul Stastny |
VGK |
8 |
4 |
| Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
8 |
9 |
| Tomas Hertl |
SAN |
8 |
16 |
| Logan Couture |
SAN |
8 |
25 |
| Nicklas Backstrom |
WAS |
8 |
50 |
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| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Jaccob Slavin |
CAR |
9 |
0 |
| Erik Karlsson |
SAN |
9 |
19 |
| Shea Theodore |
VGK |
8 |
9 |
| Dustin Byfuglien |
WPG |
8 |
0 |
| Dougie Hamilton |
CAR |
6 |
5 |
| John Klingberg |
DAL |
6 |
10 |
| Alex Pietrangelo |
STL |
6 |
25 |
| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Petr Mrazek |
CAR |
9 |
0 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury |
VGK |
8 |
19 |
| Braden Holtby |
WAS |
8 |
26 |
| Mike Smith |
CGY |
7 |
4 |
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| Teams |
| IN |
Picks |
Cups |
| Boston |
184 |
23 |
| San Jose |
149 |
8 |
| St. Louis |
130 |
6 |
| Dallas |
49 |
3 |
| NY Islanders |
29 |
3 |
| Colorado |
23 |
1 |
| Carolina |
19 |
1 |
| Columbus |
8 |
1 |
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| OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
| Tampa Bay |
819 |
204 |
| Calgary |
526 |
30 |
| Washington |
387 |
17 |
| Winnipeg |
212 |
14 |
| Nashville |
209 |
13 |
| Pittsburgh |
207 |
10 |
| Toronto |
105 |
9 |
| Vegas |
85 |
6 |
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Now that you've come this far (and after checking the projections below), catch up with the smaller (and more contestant-focused) round 2 update.
Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Mikko Rantanen of the Penguins would get another 9 points, while Brent Burns would again underperform with 4 points to Erik Karlsson's 9.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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