
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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| Stuart Skinner's shutout had the biggest impact on the leaderboard in round 1. |
The big surprise in Round 1 was perhaps that there were no surprises. All of the higher-seeded teams won their rounds, and the only pool-favoured team to lose was Toronto, with 182 player picks and 28 Cup picks by the long-suffering Leafs fans in this pool.
After the huge losses in round 1 last year (51.5% of picks eliminated), we have had one of the most successful first rounds in the pool's history for player picks. Only 15.7% of picks were eliminated, the second-lowest ever - 2011's 14.7% was the lowest, the year Boston beat Vancouver in the Cam Neely Cup Final.
Only one entry was completely wiped out, with 10 people losing 6 picks being the next-biggest loss. There were 176 unscathed entries, or 50.4% of the pool. Well done everyone!
Kerrieann Holland had an impressive 77 points to lead after round 1, but with Tampa's elimination, is left with just 6 players. Her one-point lead may not last long. Coming on strong just one point behind Kerrieann are Mike Osborn, Pierre Allard, and John Thompson, the OAT trio, who have the same nine players and will be differentiated only by which team (of Edmonton, Colorado, or Florida) might win the Cup. Where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same as round one? Check out the projection below.
The two top offensive teams, Edmonton and Colorado, look to continue their offensive barrage and being two of the three top-picked teams, they will maintain their hold on the upper echelons of the pool. Nearly all of the top 50 have three Oilers and three Avs, so the real difference-makers will likely be the Eastern Conference team that comes through to the finals. Florida seems most dominant for now, but the Rangers and Carolina could have their say.
While this was not the biggest year for busts, there was still one big enough to be worthy of this award. Connor Hellebuyck, widely viewed as the best goalie in the league and the likely Vezina trophy winner, allowed at least 5 goals every game against the Avalanche, and you're not going to win many series doing that. His 1 point for 36 pickers is this year's biggest bust.
Biggest busts over the years: 2024 - Hellebuyck; 2023 - Lindholm; 2022 - Huberdeau; 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. Kudos to Corbin Tojeira who was the only one to pick Valeri Nichushkin of the Avalanche (7 pts thus far). The best player nobody took was Nichushkin's teammate, Artturi Lehkonen (8 pts).
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 84 picks; Kucherov, Tam, 44; Marner, Tor, 38; Hellebuyck, Wpg, 36; Scheifele, Wpg, 33.
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Connor McDavid |
EDM |
12 |
257 |
| Leon Draisaitl |
EDM |
10 |
188 |
| Carter Verhaeghe |
FLA |
9 |
8 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
9 |
78 |
| Matthew Tkachuk |
FLA |
9 |
95 |
| Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
9 |
151 |
| Artturi Lehkonen |
COL |
8 |
0 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
8 |
30 |
| Zach Hyman |
EDM |
8 |
37 |
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| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Evan Bouchard |
EDM |
9 |
125 |
| Cale Makar |
COL |
9 |
133 |
| Victor Hedman |
TAM |
7 |
23 |
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| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Stuart Skinner |
EDM |
9 |
29 |
| Arturs Silovs |
VAN |
7 |
0 |
| Adin Hill |
VGK |
6 |
0 |
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| Teams |
| Edmonton | 643 | 58 |
| NY Rangers | 471 | 64 |
| Colorado | 385 | 35 |
| Dallas | 293 | 47 |
| Carolina | 282 | 39 |
| Florida | 277 | 30 |
| Vancouver | 184 | 12 |
| Boston | 114 | 9 |
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| Toronto | 182 | 28 |
| Winnipeg | 122 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 97 | 8 |
| Vegas | 52 | 3 |
| Nashville | 32 | 1 |
| Los Angeles | 5 | 1 |
| Washington | 2 | 0 |
| NY Islanders | 0 | 0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Stuart Skinner would get another four wins and a shutout.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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