|
 |
| |

Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
A relatively tame first round has passed without major upsets or high scoring. Anaheim (150 picks) was the only favourite to be knocked out, while teams like Washington have not turned on the offensive jets. The pool therefore remains extremely close and is open to a lot of possibilities. So even if you're trailing the pack, you still have a chance.
 |
Ryan Miller led the pool after posting two shutouts, but was then knocked out. |
Congratulations to Laurena Clark on climbing to the top spot for the final day of round one, and the permanent "1" in her first round record. Unfortunately she and some of her fellow leaderboarders got there on the strength of Anaheim's offensive outburst and will suffer from their elimination. Laurena lost three players and the others in the top four lost more.
Looking good are Sanjay Talwar, Ruth Beder, and Trevor Stiles, the top poolies without any losses and within striking distance of the leaders in a few games' time.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
The most notable trend in the first round stats is the unusual circumstance where the top players in the first round at every position were knocked out - and this in a year with so few first round upsets. Both of the top two goalies, all of the top three defensemen, and the top forward were eliminated. Ryan Miller of Buffalo had 14 points (including two shutouts) and led all players; Chris Crawford had ten points in net for Chicago. Buffalo and Chicago also provided the top defensemen in Marc-Andre Gragnani, Tyler Myers, and Duncan Keith. Meanwhile Mike Cammalleri, who led all skaters with 10 points, is out as well.
Look for key players to step it up in the next round.
The offence wasn't a highlight in the first round, other than Anaheim and Tampa Bay, but shutouts were back in vogue in round one. With three on the first night and two more the next, temporary five-point advantages for some goaltenders ended up being cancelled out as the round wore on. In the end only Ryan Miller had more than one shutout and he's toast despite that.
The biggest bust is usually determined in the first round because when major players fail to show up in the playoffs, their team usually loses. This year our two contenders for the award are still alive into round two. Expect either Nicklas Backstrom (77 picks, 1 point) or Zdeno Chara (55 picks, 1 point) to claim the award as soon as next round, should their team lose. Unless they turn it around in a hurry.
Biggest busts over the years: 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. The Hindsight Award this year - at least after round one - goes to Bo Chen for being the only one to pick Chris Crawford, who collected 10 points. Unfortunately Crawford, along with defenseman Tyler Myers (six points, picked by Brad Hotson), were both eliminated leaving no true darkhorse picks at this stage. Stay tuned in round two for new heroes to emerge.
In round one I had the right idea not picking many upsets, and got 4/4 in the East, but in the west I got the wrong upset for 6/8 overall. For round two, I'm taking Vancouver, Detroit in the "upset" over San Jose, Boston, and Tampa Bay over perennial second round losers Washington..
Major players on their way out: Perry, ANA, 63 picks; Visnovsky, ANA, 38; Getzlaf, ANA, 27; Selanne, ANA, 14; Letang, Pit, 13; Vanek, Buf, 10.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Michael Cammalleri |
MON |
10 |
8 |
Claude Giroux |
PHI |
9 |
37 |
Martin St.Louis |
TAM |
8 |
42 |
Corey Perry |
ANA |
8 |
63 |
Patrice Bergeron |
BOS |
7 |
10 |
Ryane Clowe |
SAN |
7 |
3 |
Daniel Briere |
PHI |
7 |
31 |
Saku Koivu |
ANA |
7 |
0 |
Teemu Selanne |
ANA |
7 |
14 |
Simon Gagne |
TAM |
7 |
0 |
Daniel Sedin |
VAN |
7 |
151 |
Steve Downie |
TAM |
7 |
2 |
|
Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Marc-Andre Gragnani |
BUF |
7 |
0 |
Tyler Myers |
BUF |
6 |
1 |
Duncan Keith |
CHI |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Ryan Miller |
BUF |
14 |
6 |
Corey Crawford |
CHI |
10 |
1 |
Dwayne Roloson |
TAM |
9 |
6 |
Roberto Luongo |
VAN |
9 |
85 |
Michal Neuvirth |
WAS |
9 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
Vancouver |
452 |
102 |
Washington |
274 |
16 |
San Jose |
258 |
35 |
Boston |
203 |
23 |
Detroit |
159 |
7 |
Philadelphia |
115 |
5 |
Tampa Bay |
103 |
4 |
Nashville |
10 |
0 |
|
OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
Anaheim |
150 |
6 |
Pittsburgh |
28 |
2 |
Buffalo |
24 |
4 |
Montreal |
24 |
1 |
Chicago |
18 |
0 |
Phoenix |
12 |
0 |
NY Rangers |
9 |
0 |
Los Angeles |
6 |
0 |
|
Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, so Nicklas Backstrom and Zdeno Chara would continue to suck, while Roberto Luongo would get another 9 points.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
|
Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.
|
|