Lord Stanley's Pool 2011 - Round 2 Analysis

While this year's round two may not have been as historic as last year's, there was plenty of action in the pool and some interesting results. In the East, we saw two sweeps, and perennial choker Washington managed to lose again (more on this below), eliminating the second most popular team. Moreover the people who picked Washington, while not expecting them to win it all (to the same extent as San Jose or Boston) didn't get the benefit of very much offence.

In the West, perennial choker San Jose managed to avoid a second round choke for the second straight year. Last year's trauma was a Dan Boyle goal on his own team - in overtime, which they did manage to overcome. This year they blew the 3-0 series lead and almost managed to fail in game 7 before surviving. A second straight Conference Finals appearance should help dispel the "choker" tag but the manner in which they're doing it still causes people to wonder.

So with most of the favourites still intact the pool is going strong with may picks remaining, but it appears that only the people who took Tampa Bay players instead of Washington's will get any particular advantage from their upset.

Roberto Luongo is the to player in the pool after two rounds.

Roberto Luongo is the top player in the pool after two rounds.

Record number of picks in Western final
The Vancouver/San Jose series, with the first and third favourite teams, have 710 active picks, by far the most in any series in Lord Stanley's Pool history. But with 363 of those picks locked in with Daniel Sedin (151), Henrik Sedin (127), and Roberto Luongo (85), the difference makers will be players like Ryan Kesler (43 picks), Joe Thornton (51), or in the East, players like Vincent Lecavalier (12) or Patrice Bergeron (10) - if he comes back from his concussion.

Washington's epic failures continue
Washington's playoff failures are legendary, and they continue today. This year they have concluded a repeat of their stretch from 1984 to 1986 when they had three straight 100-point seasons and lost in rounds 2, 1, and 2. In 22 playoff appearances, Washington has only made it past round two twice, and never during their seven 100+ point seasons.

Goaltending battle still relevant
Usually at this point of the pool some major goaltending fails have knocked out lots of picks. This year the three major goalies for the pool - Roberto Luongo (85 picks), Tim Thomas (48), and Antti Niemi (34) are all still active along with Dwayne Roloson (6). Luongo clearly has had the better playoff with two shutouts to Thomas and Niemi's none (Roloson, one). But all could play kingmaker for a block of poolies with a shutout or two.

Biggest bust - now official
After round 1 Nicklas Backstrom was tagged as the main contender for the Biggest Bust Award, having had only one point for 77 poolies. With so few popular players eliminated in round 1 and those that were, having performed well, we extended the contest into round two and clearly, with only two points total for his hopeful followers, his pick was the biggest bust this year. Well at least it wasn't Ovie.

Biggest busts over the years: 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster; 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Good picking
Twelve pool entries still have a full slate of 9 players, with another eight having 8 players. That makes 10% of the pool with near-perfect picking - well done. Look for Ruth Beder, a contender last year, and Ryan Courville to move to the front of the pack, with Aaron Pretto, Mike De Petrillo, and Dan Leggieri not far behind.

The maximum number of players anyone can take into the finals is six, so all of these people will lose picks after round three, but they are also guaranteed to have players active in the final round.

Meanwhile kudos go to others who picked rare players that are performing well. In three of these six cases, it may have helped put them into contention. Marco Pazzano was the only one to pick Logan Couture (12 points); Steve Downie (12 points) was selected by contender Ryan Courville and by David Lester; Ryane Clowe (13 points) was chosen by contenders Ruth Beder and Aaron Pretto as well as by Dryden Craig.

Mitch's predictions
I called the TB upset over the Caps along with two other series wins (Bos, Van) but didn't manage the second round sweep as Detroit couldn't complete its last comeback. Nevertheless I'm still batting .750, 9 for 12 this year which is much better than I normally do. Too bad my pool standing is not quite as stellar. For the semis I'm going with Boston and Vancouver to set up the Cam Neely final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Gabe Pretto	125 (151,26)	John McClelland	52
Russell Bobbie	115 (157,42)	Randy Stewart	51
Randy Stewart	109 (118,9)	Mike De Petrillo	50
Avery Spedding	109 (141,32)	Gabe Pretto	48
Frank Pileggi	109 (141,32)	Ryan Courville	48
Dwight Butler	109 (151,42)	Aaron Pretto	48

Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Brendan Browne	176 (15,191)	Sohee Kim	5
David Schamma	168 (23,191)	Brendan Browne	6
Brad Hotson	165 (3,168)	David Schamma	7
Kevin Boomer	127 (44,171)	Steve Vinette	8
Einar Gainforth-Beech	121 (50,171)	Brad Hotson	10

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Pavel Datsyuk DET 15 42

Ryan Kesler VAN 15 43

Joel Ward NAS 13 0

Ryane Clowe SAN 13 3

Martin St.Louis TAM 13 43

Logan Couture SAN 12 1

Steve Downie TAM 12 2
Patrice Bergeron BOS 12 10

Vincent Lecavalier TAM 12 12

Claude Giroux PHI 12 37

Defense Team Pts Picks

Dan Boyle SAN 11 69

Christian Ehrhoff VAN 9 41

Nicklas Lidstrom DET 8 68

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Roberto Luongo VAN 18 85

Ryan Miller BUF 14 6

Dwayne Roloson TAM 13 6

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Vancouver 452 102

San Jose 258 35

Boston 203 23

Tampa Bay 103 4

OUT Picks Cups

Washington 274 16

Detroit 159 7

Philadelphia 115 5

Nashville 10 0

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2, so Dwayne Roloson would get half a shutout, while Couture and Clowe would continue to outplay Chara and Lucic.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

7 2 1 Ruth Beder 96 9 VAN 144
58 5 2 Ryan Courville 94 9 BOS 141
58 5 3 Aaron Pretto 94 8 VAN 136
106 9 4 Mike De Petrillo 92 8 SJS 134
88 15 5 Dan Leggieri 90 8 VAN 130
88 2 6 John McClelland 96 6 VAN 127
5 1 7 Sanjay Talwar 98 5 VAN 126
32 5 7 Jason Feltz 94 6 VAN 126
151 42 7 Dwight Butler 84 9 VAN 126
36 42 7 Desmond Desrosier 84 9 VAN 126
118 9 11 Randy Stewart 92 6 VAN 125
44 18 12 Sam Fielding 89 6 VAN 124
23 8 13 Ted Kennedy 93 6 TBL 123
15 9 13 Harris Beder 92 6 SJS 123
76 20 13 Mike Osburn 88 7 VAN 123
141 32 16 Frank Pileggi 85 8 VAN 122
141 32 16 Avery Spedding 85 8 BOS 122
11 20 18 Kristie Baran 88 6 VAN 121
133 42 18 Samara McAdam 84 8 VAN 121
2 18 20 Alvin Gainforth 89 5 ANA 120
118 67 20 Dennis Clayton 80 9 BOS 120
166 67 20 Norrin Ripsman 80 9 SJS 120
141 67 20 Andrew Ryan 80 9 VAN 120
58 67 20 Shannon Brewster 80 9 VAN 120
44 32 25 Rachelle Gaudet 85 6 VAN 118
76 32 25 David Minuk 85 6 VAN 118
36 42 25 David Lester 84 7 SJS 118
166 75 25 Siyeon Lee 79 9 BOS 118
23 2 29 Ashleigh Harrington 96 3 VAN 117
23 9 29 Jay Dart 92 4 DET 117
151 26 29 Gabe Pretto 86 6 BOS 117
76 42 29 Glenn Zyzanski 84 6 WSH 117
5 20 33 Hank Shannon 88 5 VAN 116
133 26 33 Peter Holland 86 6 SJS 116
44 15 35 Juan Arango 90 5 WSH 115
58 50 35 Brad Moulton 83 6 VAN 115
58 50 35 Shadd Dales 83 6 VAN 115
58 50 35 Martha Gill 83 6 VAN 115
58 50 35 Keith Chappell 83 6 VAN 115
58 50 35 Ray Amarsi 83 6 VAN 115
11 25 41 Michael Patton 87 5 VAN 114
118 32 41 Luke McEachnie 85 5 VAN 114
32 32 41 Deric Chow 85 5 VAN 114
44 9 44 Saeho Son 92 3 VAN 113
15 32 44 John White 85 5 VAN 113
166 75 44 Roger Brouard 79 8 BOS 113
157 83 44 Aron Slipacoff 78 8 VAN 113
36 32 48 Peter Hogg 85 5 VAN 112
36 32 48 Mark Coatsworth 85 5 VAN 112
106 67 48 Nina Lozano 80 6 VAN 112
174 108 48 Patrick Mitchell 75 9 SJS 112
32 42 52 Peter Kazan 84 5 VAN 111
76 67 52 Graham Haines 80 6 VAN 111
50 26 54 Ryan Chirnomas 86 4 VAN 110
15 32 54 Brandon Kubis 85 4 VAN 110
157 42 56 Russell Bobbie 84 6 BOS 109
58 15 57 Allan Crisford 90 3 VAN 108
50 20 57 Maurice Levesque 88 4 VAN 108
50 57 57 Janine Pileggi 82 5 WSH 108
50 83 57 Kevin Hinch 78 6 ANA 108
88 108 57 Dryden Craig 75 6 VAN 108
118 130 57 Stan Jong 72 9 TBL 108
88 26 63 Fraser Macdonald 86 3 VAN 107
15 20 64 Pette Chappell 88 3 VAN 106
141 50 64 Steven Hawley 83 5 VAN 106
58 59 64 Mike van Steendelaar 81 5 VAN 106
44 67 64 Sean Hammond 80 6 VAN 106
118 98 64 Becke Gainforth 76 6 VAN 106
58 75 69 Della Santin 79 5 SJS 105
133 75 69 Mitch Wexler 79 6 VAN 105
106 90 69 Ian Winsor 77 6 VAN 105
76 90 69 Stuart Klein 77 6 SJS 105
88 98 69 Jim Durley 76 6 VAN 105
118 98 69 Hoover Jong 76 6 VAN 105
133 98 69 Shawn Robichaud 76 6 VAN 105
23 98 69 Brian Upper 76 6 VAN 105
157 143 69 David Loop 70 9 VAN 105
23 14 78 Jordana Wexler 91 2 DET 104
118 26 78 Karen Savoie 86 3 VAN 104
23 26 78 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 86 3 WSH 104
7 50 78 Samuel Wexler 83 3 VAN 104
50 67 78 Alexander Bondarenko 80 4 WSH 104
50 98 78 Max Porebski 76 5 VAN 104
102 75 78 Pierre Gainforth-Beech 79 6 BOS 104
32 83 78 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 78 6 PHI 104
183 98 78 Peter Pappas 76 6 BOS 104
58 90 87 Lindsay Adams 77 6 SJS 103
183 121 87 Stephen Craig 74 6 SJS 103
88 42 89 Ronny Sirizzotti 84 3 VAN 102
11 59 89 Trevor Stiles 81 4 VAN 102
58 75 89 Blair Miller 79 5 PHI 102
183 90 89 Scott Strachan 77 6 BOS 102
183 90 89 Chris Smith 77 6 VAN 102
183 90 89 Sean Smith 77 6 VAN 102
11 83 95 Shaun Dolter 78 5 VAN 101
183 83 95 Dan Sullivan 78 6 DET 101
7 59 97 Duncan Campbell 81 4 VAN 100
76 90 97 Kristoff Porebski 77 4 VAN 100
195 121 97 Noah Bloedow 74 5 VAN 100
106 59 100 George Smith 81 3 VAN 99
88 59 100 Ryan Slack 81 3 VAN 99
36 59 100 John Upper 81 3 ANA 99
106 59 100 Ryan Ferguson 81 3 VAN 99
141 121 100 Campbell Clark-Smith 74 5 VAN 99
166 135 100 David Burke 71 6 VAN 99
195 143 100 Richard Gretzinger 70 7 VAN 99
1 59 107 Laurena Clark 81 3 ANA 98
151 83 107 Steve Gill 78 4 VAN 98
76 108 107 Oliver Porebski 75 4 VAN 98
15 75 110 Brendan Hoey 79 3 VAN 97
36 75 110 Darcy Lavery 79 3 VAN 97
106 135 110 Lee Beech 71 6 BOS 97
151 143 110 Mouli Ramani 70 6 SJS 97
133 83 114 Ryan Thompson 78 3 VAN 96
76 108 114 Bill Bettridge 75 4 VAN 96
76 127 114 Kristen Walsh 73 5 BOS 96
157 108 114 David Van Kula 75 6 DET 96
58 135 114 Mel McNulty 71 6 SJS 96
118 143 114 Todd Beaman 70 6 SJS 96
118 143 114 Jerry Daleez 70 6 SJS 96
174 143 114 Dave Spedding 70 6 WSH 96
3 98 122 David Valenti 76 4 MTL 95
201 108 122 Colin Kennedy 75 5 BOS 95
23 127 122 Andrea De Petrillo 73 5 VAN 95
15 130 122 Marilyn Beaulieu 72 5 TBL 95
118 155 122 Steve Sealy 69 5 VAN 95
133 135 122 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 71 6 SJS 95
106 143 122 Mike Melanson 70 6 SJS 95
76 57 129 Al Champsi 82 2 DET 94
58 98 129 Brenden Kennedy 76 4 VAN 94
88 143 129 Patrick Provost 70 6 ANA 94
88 143 129 Jeff Wener 70 6 VAN 94
157 143 129 Douglas Wilkinson 70 6 WSH 94
174 155 129 Blair Phillips 69 6 VAN 94
183 155 129 Jaime Caeiro 69 6 SJS 94
174 155 129 Russell Reed 69 6 VAN 94
195 165 129 Shane Kozlowich 67 7 SJS 94
151 108 138 Ron Wener 75 3 VAN 93
58 108 138 Gabriel Strachan 75 3 VAN 93
36 108 138 Denis Melanson 75 3 VAN 93
7 108 138 Mike Newbauer 75 3 VAN 93
133 108 138 Ryan McLennan 75 4 SJS 93
141 127 138 Matt Seiler 73 4 DET 93
88 130 138 Adam Bloedow 72 4 VAN 93
76 135 138 Jordan Groesch 71 5 BOS 93
157 135 138 Jerry Rynda 71 6 BOS 93
183 108 147 Karla Webster Gill 75 3 VAN 92
15 121 147 Andrew Hamilton 74 3 VAN 92
50 121 147 Shane Davey 74 3 WSH 92
174 168 147 George Crothers 66 6 SJS 92
102 155 151 Marco Pazzano 69 6 SJS 91
102 163 151 Ethan Craig 68 6 BUF 91
201 168 151 Abraham McAllister 66 6 WSH 91
166 176 151 Dan Salerno 64 6 SJS 91
36 108 155 Mark Brewster 75 2 WSH 90
166 98 155 Judah Gould 76 3 WSH 90
106 90 157 Aaron Allard 77 3 SJS 89
118 130 157 Kyle Seeback 72 3 VAN 89
23 135 157 Kara Spedding 71 3 VAN 89
157 143 157 Paul Baran 70 4 VAN 89
76 155 157 Marko Groesch 69 4 VAN 89
201 155 157 Jonas Struthers 69 5 VAN 89
141 176 157 Sean Sargent 64 6 BOS 89
183 186 157 Whitney Johnson 61 6 VAN 89
102 130 165 Ava McAdam-Beder 72 4 SJS 88
88 171 165 Sophie Wexler 65 6 TBL 88
195 187 165 Kevin Hoey 60 6 VAN 88
58 155 168 Jeff Drisdelle 69 3 VAN 87
133 171 168 Jeff Hammond 65 6 VAN 87
141 171 170 George Roman 65 5 SJS 86
141 165 171 Joy Smith 67 5 SJS 85
106 176 171 Sascha Bloedow 64 5 BOS 85
166 176 171 Sharon Boitson 64 6 ANA 85
183 182 171 Barrett Boitson 63 6 VAN 85
88 121 175 Jason Roy 74 2 VAN 83
58 165 175 Terry Hoey 67 4 PHI 83
118 176 175 Bill Hammond 64 4 VAN 83
183 183 175 Jim Dart 62 6 SJS 83
166 135 179 Rob Phillips 71 3 BOS 82
141 143 179 Azra Champsi 70 3 SJS 82
183 176 181 Brett Kirkpatrick 64 4 SJS 81
50 171 182 Einar Gainforth-Beech 65 3 BUF 80
3 168 183 Brad Hotson 66 3 BUF 78
106 183 184 Vincent Galante 62 3 SJS 77
204 163 185 Evan Hoey 68 3 BOS 76
118 183 185 Andy Hotson 62 4 SJS 76
44 171 187 Kevin Boomer 65 2 PIT 74
88 188 187 Eli Hammerman 59 4 PHI 74
106 188 189 Patrick Gill 59 3 SJS 71
106 188 189 Martin Lefebvre 59 3 SJS 71
174 194 191 Stefano Pileggi 57 3 WSH 69
151 196 192 Kyle Hogg 56 3 SJS 68
23 191 193 David Schamma 58 3 BUF 67
199 191 194 Shane Firth 58 2 DET 66
199 197 194 Tracy Smith 55 3 BOS 66
157 200 194 Jeff Jacobs 53 3 WSH 66
174 200 194 Claudio Colavecchia 53 4 SJS 66
118 199 198 Steve Feltz 54 2 BOS 60
15 191 199 Brendan Browne 58 0 WSH 58
157 197 199 Alicia Kay 55 1 PIT 58
88 194 201 Bo Chen 57 0 WSH 57
174 202 202 Tim Smith 48 2 BOS 54
205 205 203 Jim Boudrot 35 3 BOS 47
118 203 204 Sohee Kim 46 0 WSH 46
174 204 205 Steve Vinette 43 0 PHI 43