Round 3 Analysis

The Sedin on the left... er, the right... leads the league in playoff scoring. Both will need to be at their best for Vancouver to win the Cup, although their performance won't affect the outcome of the pool.

This year's finals between Vancouver and Boston have arrived without the upset drama of last year, as most series were won by favourites. With the only real upsets being Washington and Anaheim, we have had a competitive pool with the leaders continuing to change right until the finals. We are looking at an exciting and unpredictable finish!

The contenders
There are quite a few different scenarios for pool winners, and although a couple poolies are likely the favourites, there is enough room for movement that we might not know until the final game is played. The most important factor will be the team that wins - and the 10 point bonus that goes with picking it.

The two teams with the most Cup picks in each conference have made it through: Vancouver (102) and Boston (23). No matter who wins, there will be plenty of bonus points awarded; a Vancouver victory would set a record for the most correct Cup picks in pool history (previous being Colorado's 38 picks of 40 entries in 2001).

Deemed mostly irrelevant this series, since most of the contenders (see below) have all of them, are Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler, and Tim Thomas. Although many of these people picked Vancouver to win, picking Thomas (who is even with Roberto Luongo at 22 points) allowed them to pick three Canuck forwards, and the Sedins and Kesler's success lifted these people to the top.

If Vancouver wins: Current leader Ruth Beder will have a tough time holding on, leading by only three points and having only Christian Ehrhoff to fend off players like Kesler, Thomas, Milan Lucic and Tomas Kaberle. She needs a low scoring series but no shutouts for Luongo. Andrew Ryan has the inside track should the Canucks win, with the maximum six players and a buffer below him. Behind Ruth and Andrew, in a block seven to 10 points back of the lead and currently fighting for third, are a group led by Samara McAdam. Here there are two competing groups: the Kesler-Thomas group (Andrew and Samara, Mike Osburn, Frank Pileggi) against the Luongo-David Krejci group (Dwight Butler, Dan Leggieri, Shannon Brewster). Each have various other players who can make the subtle difference between cash and no cash.

If Boston wins: Dennis Clayton, a second-place money winner in 2008, sits in third place but leads the Bruin pack by five points over Siyeon Lee. Dennis is almost assured victory if Boston wins, with the unlikely scenario of Lucic getting 10-12 points in the series being one of the few ways he could be knocked off. An interesting battle for third will have Avery Spedding and Andrew Ryan trying to unseat Ruth Beder on the strength of Kesler, Thomas, et al against Ehrhoff. Andrew will try to get past Avery with Kaberle and Lucic against Zdeno Chara. Also there and with an outside chance is Ryan Courville, who needs Luongo shutouts even with the Canucks losing the series.

Vancouver win				Boston win
Ruth Beder	146 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Ehrhoff		Dennis Clayton	142 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Kaberle,Chara
Andrew Ryan	143 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Kaberle,Lucic		Siyeon Lee	137 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Chara,Lucic
Samara McAdam	138 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Chara		Ruth Beder	146	DSedin,HSedin,Ehrhoff
Dwight Butler	136 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Luongo,Kaberle,Lucic Krejci		Avery Spedding	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Chara
Dan Leggieri	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Luongo,Kaberle,Krejci,Bergeron		Andrew Ryan	143	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Kaberle,Lucic
Mike Osburn	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Lucic,Bergeron		Ryan Courville	133 (+10)	DSedin,Kesler,Luongo,Kaberle,Lucic
Frank Pileggi	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Kesler,Thomas,Chara		Russell Bobbie	129 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Ehrhoff,Thomas,Lucic,Krejci
Shannon Brewster	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Luongo,Chara,Krejci,Bergeron
Myeongja Kim	135 (+10)	DSedin,HSedin,Ehrhoff

Round three scoring record smashed
Andrew Ryan's 63 points in round three smashed the previous record of 46, set a decade ago, while many others also eclipsed the old mark. A high scoring round combined with most picks still being active led to the record being broken so soundly and also to a lot of changes in the standings.

Goalie battle continues to be even
Three goaltending favourites were picked this year and all three made it to the conference finals, and the top two of these - Roberto Luongo, 85 picks, and Tim Thomas, 48 picks - made it through to the finals. With both of them even with 22 points - leading the league - it appears that either of them were a good choice. The final question to be answered is whether one of them will be the difference-maker in the final pool result, or will the pick be more important by allowing an additional forward from the opposing team - such as Kesler or Bergeron?

Mitch's prediction
I suppose it's easier when the favourites win, but I've maintained by good record this year, now at 11 for 14 after picking both winners in round 3. To complete the run I'm going with Vancouver (naturally!) and hope for a final score of 80%. And of course, I'm betting on the Cup returning to Canada along with the NHL in Winnipeg and a majority Conservative government. :)

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
David Loop	115 (143,28)		Andrew Ryan	63
Abraham McAllister	96 (168,72)		Dennis Clayton	62
Jaime Caeiro	89 (155,66)		Norrin Ripsman	58
Jeff Hammond	77 (171,94)		Siyeon Lee	58
Sean Sargent	74 (176,102)		Shannon Brewster	55
Stan Jong	74 (130,56)
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
Jordana Wexler	135 (14,149)		4 People with:	0
Fraser Macdonald	112 (26,138)		Jordana Wexler	6
Laurena Clark	107 (59,166)		Alicia Kay	7
Altaf Champsi	105 (57,162)		Stefano Pileggi	9
Samuel Wexler	104 (50,154)		Laurena Clark	11

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Henrik Sedin VAN 21 127 Martin St.Louis TAM 20 42 Vincent Lecavalier TAM 19 12 Ryan Kesler VAN 18 43 Teddy Purcell TAM 17 0 Nathan Horton BOS 17 5 David Krejci BOS 17 24 Joe Thornton SAN 17 52 Daniel Sedin VAN 16 151 Ryane Clowe SAN 15 3 Patrice Bergeron BOS 15 10 Pavel Datsyuk DET 15 42	Defense Team Pts Picks Dan Boyle SAN 16 69 Christian Ehrhoff VAN 11 41 Ian White SAN 9 0 Kevin Bieksa VAN 9 1 Alexander Edler VAN 9 2 Goalies Team Pts Picks Tim Thomas BOS 22 48 Roberto Luongo VAN 22 85 Dwayne Roloson TAM 15 6 Ryan Miller BUF 14 6
Teams
IN Picks Cups Vancouver 452 102 Boston 203 23	OUT Picks Cups San Jose 258 35 Tampa Bay 103 4

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd4 Projection
141	67	2	1	Andrew Ryan	143	6	VAN	174
118	67	3	2	Dennis Clayton	142	6	BOS	172
166	67	4	3	Norrin Ripsman	138	6	SJS	171
88	15	9	4	Dan Leggieri	135	6	VAN	168
76	20	9	4	Mike Osburn	135	6	VAN	168
166	75	6	6	Siyeon Lee	137	6	BOS	167
151	42	7	6	Dwight Butler	136	6	VAN	167
133	42	4	8	Samara McAdam	138	5	VAN	165
7	2	1	9	Ruth Beder	146	3	VAN	162
141	32	9	9	Frank Pileggi	135	5	VAN	162
141	32	9	9	Avery Spedding	135	5	BOS	162
157	83	16	9	Aron Slipacoff	132	6	VAN	162
157	42	17	13	Russell Bobbie	129	6	BOS	161
88	2	17	13	John McClelland	129	6	VAN	161
58	67	9	15	Shannon Brewster	135	5	VAN	159
58	5	15	16	Ryan Courville	133	5	BOS	157
166	75	22	16	Roger Brouard	127	6	BOS	157
106	9	7	18	Mike De Petrillo	136	3	SJS	154
183	90	35	18	Chris Smith	122	6	VAN	154
36	42	9	20	Desmond Desrosier	135	3	VAN	151
157	143	28	20	David Loop	123	6	VAN	151
133	75	40	20	Mitch Wexler	120	6	VAN	151
11	20	17	23	Kristie Baran	129	3	VAN	148
5	1	21	24	Sanjay Talwar	128	3	VAN	147
44	15	40	24	Juan Arango	120	5	WSH	147
183	90	54	24	Sean Smith	117	6	VAN	147
183	90	54	24	Scott Strachan	117	6	BOS	147
133	98	56	24	Shawn Robichaud	115	6	VAN	147
141	50	47	29	Steven Hawley	119	5	VAN	146
23	8	17	30	Ted Kennedy	129	3	TBL	145
44	32	24	30	Rachelle Gaudet	126	3	VAN	145
5	20	25	32	Hank Shannon	124	3	VAN	143
201	168	72	32	Abraham McAllister	111	6	WSH	143
58	5	22	34	Aaron Pretto	127	3	VAN	142
58	50	28	34	Brad Moulton	123	3	VAN	142
58	50	28	34	Martha Gill	123	3	VAN	142
58	50	28	34	Shadd Dales	123	3	VAN	142
58	50	28	34	Ray Amarsi	123	3	VAN	142
58	50	28	34	Keith Chappell	123	3	VAN	142
88	143	72	40	Patrick Provost	111	6	ANA	141
88	143	72	40	Jeff Wener	111	6	VAN	141
106	90	72	40	Ian Winsor	111	6	VAN	141
32	5	25	43	Jason Feltz	124	3	VAN	140
11	25	37	43	Michael Patton	121	3	VAN	140
15	32	37	43	John White	121	3	VAN	140
23	9	37	43	Jay Dart	121	3	DET	140
118	9	40	43	Randy Stewart	120	4	VAN	140
151	26	72	43	Gabe Pretto	111	6	BOS	140
183	98	84	43	Peter Pappas	110	6	BOS	140
106	67	40	50	Nina Lozano	120	3	VAN	139
36	32	40	50	Mark Coatsworth	120	3	VAN	139
76	42	40	50	Glenn Zyzanski	120	3	WSH	139
174	155	89	50	Russell Reed	109	6	VAN	139
174	155	89	50	Blair Phillips	109	6	VAN	139
44	18	40	55	Sam Fielding	120	3	VAN	138
76	32	47	55	David Minuk	119	3	VAN	138
36	32	47	55	Peter Hogg	119	3	VAN	138
157	135	84	55	Jerry Rynda	110	6	BOS	138
32	42	51	59	Peter Kazan	118	3	VAN	137
118	32	51	59	Luke McEachnie	118	3	VAN	137
32	32	51	59	Deric Chow	118	3	VAN	137
133	171	94	59	Jeff Hammond	108	6	VAN	137
36	42	25	63	David Lester	124	2	SJS	136
102	75	89	63	Pierre Gainforth-Beech	109	6	BOS	136
141	176	102	63	Sean Sargent	106	6	BOS	136
183	83	35	66	Dan Sullivan	122	3	DET	135
174	108	89	66	Patrick Mitchell	109	6	SJS	135
76	67	56	68	Graham Haines	115	3	VAN	134
23	98	56	68	Brian Upper	115	3	VAN	134
15	32	62	70	Brandon Kubis	114	3	VAN	133
88	98	66	70	Jim Durley	112	4	VAN	133
201	155	99	70	Jonas Struthers	107	5	VAN	133
118	98	64	73	Becke Gainforth	113	3	VAN	132
118	98	72	73	Hoover Jong	111	4	VAN	132
50	20	72	73	Maurice Levesque	111	4	VAN	132
76	127	72	73	Kristen Walsh	111	4	BOS	132
76	90	56	77	Stuart Klein	115	3	SJS	131
2	18	56	77	Alvin Gainforth	115	3	ANA	131
58	15	66	77	Allan Crisford	112	3	VAN	131
141	127	66	77	Matt Seiler	112	3	DET	131
50	98	66	77	Max Porebski	112	3	VAN	131
50	83	72	77	Kevin Hinch	111	3	ANA	131
76	135	84	77	Jordan Groesch	110	4	BOS	131
141	121	108	77	Campbell Clark-Smith	104	5	VAN	131
102	163	108	77	Ethan Craig	104	6	BUF	131
88	108	72	86	Dryden Craig	111	3	VAN	130
118	155	124	86	Steve Sealy	102	5	VAN	130
195	143	116	86	Richard Gretzinger	103	6	VAN	130
183	182	124	86	Barrett Boitson	102	6	VAN	130
44	67	64	90	Sean Hammond	113	3	VAN	129
11	59	84	90	Trevor Stiles	110	3	VAN	129
15	20	84	90	Pette Chappell	110	3	VAN	129
106	135	62	93	Lee Beech	114	3	BOS	128
11	83	66	93	Shaun Dolter	112	3	VAN	128
183	155	66	93	Jaime Caeiro	112	3	SJS	128
58	90	72	96	Lindsay Adams	111	3	SJS	127
23	2	89	96	Ashleigh Harrington	109	3	VAN	127
23	26	94	96	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	108	3	WSH	127
118	26	94	96	Karen Savoie	108	3	VAN	127
50	67	94	96	Alexander Bondarenko	108	3	WSH	127
166	135	116	96	David Burke	103	5	VAN	127
195	165	116	102	Shane Kozlowich	103	5	SJS	126
118	130	56	103	Stan Jong	115	3	TBL	125
88	42	102	103	Ronny Sirizzotti	106	3	VAN	125
15	9	28	105	Harris Beder	123	0	SJS	123
201	108	94	105	Colin Kennedy	108	3	BOS	123
44	9	105	105	Saeho Son	105	3	VAN	123
76	108	108	105	Bill Bettridge	104	3	VAN	123
157	143	105	105	Douglas Wilkinson	105	4	WSH	123
133	135	99	110	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	107	3	SJS	122
183	121	108	110	Stephen Craig	104	3	SJS	122
36	59	116	110	John Upper	103	3	ANA	122
106	59	116	110	Ryan Ferguson	103	3	VAN	122
106	59	116	110	George Smith	103	3	VAN	122
88	59	116	110	Ryan Slack	103	3	VAN	122
151	83	129	110	Steve Gill	101	4	VAN	122
58	59	138	110	Mike van Steendelaar	99	5	VAN	122
58	75	105	118	Blair Miller	105	3	PHI	121
23	127	129	118	Andrea De Petrillo	101	4	VAN	121
118	143	108	120	Jerry Daleez	104	3	SJS	120
118	143	108	120	Todd Beaman	104	3	SJS	120
50	26	108	120	Ryan Chirnomas	104	3	VAN	120
151	143	124	120	Mouli Ramani	102	3	SJS	120
36	75	129	120	Darcy Lavery	101	3	VAN	120
15	75	129	120	Brendan Hoey	101	3	VAN	120
88	130	144	120	Adam Bloedow	98	4	VAN	120
133	26	47	127	Peter Holland	119	0	SJS	119
50	57	99	127	Janine Pileggi	107	2	WSH	119
133	83	136	127	Ryan Thompson	100	3	VAN	119
7	59	116	130	Duncan Campbell	103	3	VAN	118
3	98	124	130	David Valenti	102	3	MTL	118
76	155	154	130	Marko Groesch	96	4	VAN	118
88	171	102	133	Sophie Wexler	106	3	TBL	117
88	26	138	133	Fraser Macdonald	99	3	VAN	117
32	83	72	135	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	111	1	PHI	116
58	98	136	135	Brenden Kennedy	100	3	VAN	116
151	108	149	135	Ron Wener	97	3	VAN	116
36	108	149	135	Denis Melanson	97	3	VAN	116
7	108	149	135	Mike Newbauer	97	3	VAN	116
102	155	108	140	Marco Pazzano	104	3	SJS	115
174	143	129	140	Dave Spedding	101	3	WSH	115
183	186	138	140	Whitney Johnson	99	3	VAN	115
106	176	138	140	Sascha Bloedow	99	3	BOS	115
174	168	138	140	George Crothers	99	3	SJS	115
15	121	154	140	Andrew Hamilton	96	3	VAN	115
195	121	166	140	Noah Bloedow	92	5	VAN	115
195	187	144	147	Kevin Hoey	98	3	VAN	114
183	108	154	147	Karla Webster Gill	96	3	VAN	114
7	50	154	147	Samuel Wexler	96	3	VAN	114
166	176	149	150	Dan Salerno	97	3	SJS	112
166	135	154	150	Rob Phillips	96	3	BOS	112
23	135	162	150	Kara Spedding	93	3	VAN	112
76	108	138	153	Oliver Porebski	99	2	VAN	111
157	108	129	153	David Van Kula	101	3	DET	111
118	130	162	153	Kyle Seeback	93	3	VAN	111
76	90	160	156	Kristoff Porebski	95	3	VAN	110
58	155	171	156	Jeff Drisdelle	91	3	VAN	110
58	75	124	158	Della Santin	102	1	SJS	108
102	130	129	158	Ava McAdam-Beder	101	1	SJS	108
23	14	149	158	Jordana Wexler	97	2	DET	108
118	176	154	158	Bill Hammond	96	2	VAN	108
157	143	174	158	Paul Baran	89	4	VAN	108
141	165	144	163	Joy Smith	98	2	SJS	107
1	59	166	163	Laurena Clark	92	3	ANA	107
88	121	166	165	Jason Roy	92	2	VAN	104
88	188	171	166	Eli Hammerman	91	2	PHI	103
58	108	177	166	Gabriel Strachan	87	3	VAN	103
106	143	166	168	Mike Melanson	92	2	SJS	101
15	130	144	169	Marilyn Beaulieu	98	1	TBL	100
76	57	162	169	Al Champsi	93	1	DET	100
50	121	176	171	Shane Davey	88	2	WSH	99
166	176	174	171	Sharon Boitson	89	3	ANA	99
204	163	177	171	Evan Hoey	87	3	BOS	99
58	135	144	174	Mel McNulty	98	0	SJS	98
183	183	177	175	Jim Dart	87	3	SJS	97
44	171	183	176	Kevin Boomer	83	2	PIT	95
166	98	161	177	Judah Gould	94	0	WSH	94
133	108	162	178	Ryan McLennan	93	0	SJS	93
36	108	180	178	Mark Brewster	86	1	WSH	93
141	171	166	180	George Roman	92	0	SJS	92
106	90	171	181	Aaron Allard	91	0	SJS	91
183	176	180	181	Brett Kirkpatrick	86	1	SJS	91
199	197	186	181	Tracy Smith	77	3	BOS	91
58	165	183	184	Terry Hoey	83	1	PHI	86
141	143	182	185	Azra Champsi	84	0	SJS	84
157	200	191	185	Jeff Jacobs	73	2	WSH	84
3	168	185	187	Brad Hotson	82	0	BUF	82
118	199	195	187	Steve Feltz	72	2	BOS	82
174	200	191	189	Claudio Colavecchia	73	2	SJS	81
118	183	186	190	Andy Hotson	77	1	SJS	78
50	171	186	191	Einar Gainforth-Beech	77	0	BUF	77
174	202	198	192	Tim Smith	66	2	BOS	76
23	191	189	193	David Schamma	75	0	BUF	75
106	183	190	194	Vincent Galante	74	0	SJS	74
106	188	191	195	Patrick Gill	73	0	SJS	73
106	188	191	195	Martin Lefebvre	73	0	SJS	73
151	196	196	197	Kyle Hogg	70	0	SJS	70
199	191	196	197	Shane Firth	70	0	DET	70
205	205	203	199	Jim Boudrot	53	3	BOS	67
174	194	198	200	Stefano Pileggi	66	0	WSH	66
157	197	200	201	Alicia Kay	62	0	PIT	62
15	191	201	202	Brendan Browne	58	0	WSH	58
88	194	202	203	Bo Chen	57	0	WSH	57
118	203	204	204	Sohee Kim	46	0	WSH	46
174	204	205	205	Steve Vinette	43	0	PHI	43