Lord Stanley's Pool 2011 - Final Analysis

A Stanley Cup Playoffs with few upsets generally means a very competitive pool, as many entries still have all their players through two or three rounds. This, in contrast to last year, was the story in the pool in 2011. We saw many lead changes, and entire groups of entries coming from lower in the standings to invade the top 10 each round. Few people stayed at the top for long and there were surprises in the end.

Boston's victory and Tim Thomas's final shutout gave Dennis Clayton a five-point victory, ten points ahead of third, yet it was closer than that margin would make it seem. A slightly different outcome (or a Vancouver win) would have altered the standings significantly. Congratulations to Dennis on reaching the money in Lord Stanley's Pool for the second time; in 2008 he finished second.

Siyeon Lee finished second, five points back of the lead and five ahead of third, rising on account of the Bruins victory. Starting at 166th after round one and 75th after round two, Siyeon made a big move up to sixth in round three before making her first appearance in the top five on the final day.

The drama unfolded in the race for the third and final money position. Since we don't anticipate a shutout, it was looking more likely that several others were challenging for third, but Thomas' five extra points helped pad Avery Spedding's RESP and gave Andrew Ryan his second Lord Stanley's Pool money finish (he won the whole thing back in 2001 when the prizes were not quite as large). Andrew had been riding high for some time and was likely to finish third in the event of a Vancouver win, but Avery's 10 point Boston bonus gave her the lift she needed to jump from 11th into the third place tie.

However a single goal from any Vancouver player - a meaningless puck in the net such as in the 8-2 game 3 loss - would have put Dan Leggieri (with a little help from Patrice Bergeron) into a third place tie with Ryan Courville. Russell Bobbie also deserves mention coming from a ways back and vaulting into fifth, only one point out of the money. Had things been different - a Canuck comeback, for example, Dan would have edged out Dwight Butler for the top money spot with Dwight second and Andrew third. Congratulations to all of the top entries.

You really had to be on top of your game if you wanted to have a chance in the pool this year. Unlike last year when just picking three Chicago players likely made you a contender, this season all of the top entries were loaded with both Vancouver and Boston players, and many had Tampa Bay or San Jose players to boot. There's no question Roberto Luongo or Tim Thomas needed to be your goalie, you needed three players from each of the finalists, and then you needed a lot of luck with the remaining players and the right combination. Consider that all of the money winners had Thomas, both Henrik and Daniel Sedin, and Ryan Kesler, and that nine of the top ten (only excluding the pool champion) had Dan Boyle, and you see how specific your picks needed to be if you wanted to end on top.

Only one player returns from last year's dream team, and he didn't make it to the finals either year. Dan Boyle is establishing himself as a top post-season defender, offensively at least, despite his team's difficulties advancing farther. Of the rest of the dream team, only Martin St. Louis was on a past one, back in 2004. (If we include Shoot for Gold pools, Daniel Sedin and Vincent Lecavalier both made it once before.) The rarest pick to make it was Patrice Bergeon, on 10 entries; six of this year's players were picked at least 40 times.

Goalie
Tim Thomas, Bos, 36 pts. (48 picks)
Defense
Dan Boyle, San, 16 pts. (69 picks)
Christian Ehrhoff, Van, 12 pts. (41 picks)
Forwards
David Krejci, Bos, 23 pts. (24 picks)
Henrik Sedin, Van, 22 pts. (127 picks)
Patrice Bergeron, Bos, 20 pts. (10 picks)
Martin St. Louis, Tam, 20 pts. (42 picks)
Daniel Sedin, Van, 20 pts. (151 picks)
Vincent Lecavalier, Tam, 19 pts. (12 picks)
Team: Boston, 10
Dream Team Score: 198 points
Winning Score: 179 points

Of the top 20 in the final results, 14 of them were in the bottom half of the pool after round 1, and only one was in the top 50. Ruth Beder started in 7th after round 1, rising to top top after round 3 (and a contender for the second straight year) but settled for 18th. Everyone else made the long journey up the standings as teams like Boston started to collect enough offence. The most impressive rise was Siyeon Lee's start at 166th after round 1 to finish second; others from as far down as 183rd climbed into the top 20. On the other hand, the pool leader after round 1 fell to 173rd in the end, and another in the top three fell to 189th.

Hindsight is always the best sight but then we wouldn't have a pool to play in. Good thing two poolies seemed to have no trouble honing in a couple of great picks: Andrea De Petrillo was the only one to pick Alex Burrows while Sasha Bloedow was the only entry to take Michael Ryder. Both of those players collected a respectable 17 points, giving Andrea and Sasha this year's Hindsight Award. The top player nobody picked is Brad Marchand, a Boston rookie who shined in the final game 7 but who was contributing all along, finishing with 19 points, and Tampa Bay's Teddy Purcell had 17 points as well.