Opening Analysis

The 2016 playoffs look to be about redemption. From the President's Trophy winner Washington Capitals to the San Jose Sharks and others, this year's contest might finally see a championship for one of the teams with a much maligned playoff history. Washington, which leads the pool with 513 player picks and 92 Cup picks, has been here before, leading in 2010 before letting down the masses. Will this year be different?

This year's Caps have 66 percent of their possible picks, less than the 75% in 2010 but with 35% of the Cup picks, they are more favoured to take the top prize than last time.

A cluster of five other teams complete a stronger top six than ever before. Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas, Anaheim and Pittsburgh all have more than 30% of their possible player picks, the first time the sixth place team was that strong. LA has 40 Cup picks, Anaheim 31 and Chicago 29. Chicago and LA have of course won Cups recently and Pittsburgh in the recent past, but it's been longer for Anaheim and Dallas.

Following them are three teams in the middle of the pack also looking for redemption. St. Louis, San Jose, and Florida each have playoff demons to battle and could play spoiler against the teams above.

Ovechkin leads the pool for the third time, and hopes to prove himself in the playoffs for the first.

Ovie sets the pace for the third time
Alex Ovechkin leads the entire pool in picks for the third time - the first player ever to achieve this league-wide or among forwards. Including international pools, it is Ovie's fourth time leading. (Among defense only, Nicklas Lidstrom has led six times while among just goaltenders, Martin Brodeur has led three times plus three more internationally.)

And while Ovechkin's 62% pick rate is lower than in 2009 and 2010 (considerably lower than his 79.7% in '10), the stakes may never have been higher than this year after a 56-win regular season and many past playoff failures. It's time to see some playoff dominance from the league's most exciting goal scorer.

Seventeen forwards were picked by at least 10% of the pool, from rookie Artemi Panarin (Chi) to oldtimer Jaromir Jagr (Fla), former Leafs and Senators (Phil Kessel (Pit), Jason Spezza (Dal)) along with some usual suspects (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews (Chi), Sidney Crosby (Pit)).

Holtby sets the pace for most goalie picks
Braden Holtby set a new high for goalie picks with 125, with a pick rate of 48% - behind only Tuukka Rask in 2014 (57%) and Martin Brodeur (67.5% in 2001). This is an impressive achievement for Holtby and underscores the expectations for Washington this year. Holtby similarly has the third-highest margin ahead of second place.

The second place pick is Jonathan Quick, who like Holtby has risen in the ranks every postseason appearance. Quick has stalled at #2 for the second straight year, however, and has the misfortune of being second place behind the most-ever-picked goalies in Holtby (2016) and Rask (2014).

Doughty gets his due
Drew Doughty has long been heralded as a top defenseman and now gets his due as the top-picked D-man in the pool with 85 selections, 33%. But it is a competitive field. It's Doughty's third time in the top five on D; second-place Kris Letang (76 picks) is in the top five for the fourth time and Duncan Keith (45) his fifth. John Klingberg (Dal, 63 picks) is third among defenseman in his first trip to the post-season.

Matchups to watch
Two series will have the unfortunate outcome of knocking out a fair amount of picks. Chicago (305 picks) vs St. Louis (126) will have the biggest impact with LA (281) vs San Jose (93) also making a difference in the pool going forward. On the other hand, few will care about Tampa Bay vs Detroit (63 picks between them).

This hurts
Injuries can happen at any time, but poolies are wise to check the injury list before making picks. Several players sitting out the end of the season were picked in the pool including Steven Stamkos, picked 5 times (including by yours truly, doh!), Marc-Andre Fleury, picked 13 times, and significantly, Tyler Seguin, picked 50 times. Seguin seems the closest to returning... here's hoping for a quick recovery.

Series predictions
No daring predictions this time, I'm taking all the favourites - this assumes Chicago to the the favourite over St Louis based on their pool picks though they're lower in the standings.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Florida, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Dallas, Chicago.

Common Player Card:
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.

F:
Alexander Ovechkin, Was (163 picks)
Patrick Kane, Chi (123)
Jamie Benn, Dal (102)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (97)
Evgeni Kuznetsov, Was (97)
Anze Kopitar, Los (89) / Corey Perry, Ana (89)
D:
Drew Doughty, Los (85)
Kris Letang, Pit (76)
G:
Braden Holtby, Was (125)


Last year:
F:
Rick Nash, NYR (148 picks)
Steven Stamkos, Tam (138)
Ryan Getzlaf, Ana (117)
Vladimir Tarasenko, StL (116)
Jonathan Toews, Chi (116)
Patrick Kane, Chi (87)
D:
PK Subban, Mon (88)
Duncan Keith, Chi (76)
G:
Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (100)


Team Stats:

Team	Player picks	Cup picks
Washington	513	92
Chicago	305	29
Los Angeles	281	40
Dallas	264	22
Anaheim	252	31
Pittsburgh	239	14
St. Louis	126	10
Florida	106	4
San Jose	93	5
NY Rangers	48	7
Tampa Bay	32	0
Detroit	31	3
NY Islanders	23	0
Nashville	20	2
Philadelphia	16	2
Minnesota	0	0