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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Braden Holtby
Braden Holtby proved his worth with two shutouts in round one.

Round 1 Analysis
For those who missed it: also see the Opening Analysis.
After a few years of relatively quiet opening rounds, we are back to a year of upsets. Three of the top four favourites - Chicago, Los Angeles, and Anaheim - made early exits leaving just Dallas and Pittsburgh to challenge Washington in the top six. With either the Caps or Pens to be out next, we will see further depletion of the ranks.

In total, 44% of the pool is out of play - the 5th highest round one elimination rate in the 18 years of the pool, and for just the second time, over 1,000 picks were knocked out in the opening round, along with over 100 Cup picks.

Some big names were knocked out including Patrick Kane (123 picks) and leading defenseman Drew Doughty (85 picks), while Washington goalie Braden Holtby, the leading goaltender with 125 picks, proved himself an essential pick 15 points including two shutouts and an assist.

First round leader dominant
Congratulations to Connor Brewster on his first round lead with 73 points, after a record-setting round where he led from day two (none of his players played on day one). Connor smashed the single-day pool record of 18 points with 21 on April 14, and for good measure he matched the former record of 18 on the final night to put book-ends on a dominant round. Andrew MacIntyre sits in second with 67 points, six behind, while Dan Salerno and Robin Martin are in third with 64. However, Andrew and Robin have both lost two players, while other close competitors have lost three, giving Connor some extra breathing room.

Of the close competitors with a full slate, both Dan and Becke Gainforth (5th) stand to lose at least three players from either the Caps or Pens while Vince Galante, in 8th, will lose at least one. Down the list, Hugh MacPhie will also lose three.

All this means that if the cards are dealt his way, Connor will expand his lead significantly into round three. On the other hand... if Washington and the Islanders are knocked out (see my predictions below), all bets are off.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Near-record-high points
The first round leader has 73 points, the second-highest ever. The record 78 was set in 2010, but every other year the first-round leader had between 53 and 63 points. Connor Brewster cleared the rest of the pack by an easy 10 points - similar to his lead on the rest of the pool. He did this own, not because of a high-scoring year.

Unscathed or wiped out
There were 24 unscathed entries this year (9% of the total entries), the lowest since 2012. Five entries were completely wiped out in round 1 this year, the second-highest ever recorded and top five as a percentage.

Biggest Bust award
Drew Doughty is awarded the Biggest Bust this year after leading defensemen with 85 picks and getting just a single point. He may be a great defenseman, but in this pool - with his team knocked out in the first round and him only collecting the one tally - a lot more was expected.

Biggest busts over the years: 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight award
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year we have a few picks in this category that will continue into round 2. Logan Couture (San) was picked only by Myeongja Kim, and has a respectable 6 points to help Myeongja reach 5th place. Meanwhile Dallas goalie Kari Lehtonen has 8 points for Paula Santin and Jean Glassford and appears to be cementing his starting goalie status for round 2.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Kane, Chi, 123 picks; Perry, Ana, 89; Kopitar, Los, 89; Doughty, Los, 85; Getzlaf, Ana, 85; Quick, Los, 50; Toews, Chi, 50; Keith, Chi, 45; Panarin, Chi, 38; Jagr, Fla, 37; Vatanen, Ana, 35; Carter, Los, 30.

Round 2 predictions
I know not to bet on Washington or San Jose - ever. I still picked the Caps to win round 1, but their luck will end when Pittsburgh delivers the pool's big blow in round 2. I bet on the Sharks to lose round 1 but this time I am picking them to make it just one more round (they'll lost to Dallas next round). I was a pool 4/8 in round 1, here's hoping I even up my record with these picks: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Jose.

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Jamie Benn DAL 10 102
John Tavares NYI 9 15
Jason Spezza DAL 9 28
Reilly Smith FLA 8 0
Nikita Kucherov TAM 8 7
Sidney Crosby PIT 8 97
Jason Pominville MIN 7 0
Jaden Schwartz STL 7 3
Tyler Johnson TAM 7 4
Evgeni Malkin PIT 7 12
Artemi Panarin CHI 7 38
Nicklas Backstrom WAS 7 80
Patrick Kane CHI 7 123
Defense Team Pts Picks
Brent Burns SAN 8 36
Alex Pietrangelo STL 6 6
John Carlson WAS 6 35
Jared Spurgeon MIN 5 0
Jake Muzzin LOS 5 2
Shea Weber NAS 5 5
Duncan Keith CHI 5 45
Kris Letang PIT 5 76
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Braden Holtby WAS 15 125
Brian Elliott STL 9 5
Ben Bishop TAM 9 6
Matt Murray PIT 8 0
Kari Lehtonen DAL 8 2
Frederik Andersen ANA 8 2
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups 
Washington 513 92
Dallas 264 22
Pittsburgh 239 14
St. Louis 126 10
San Jose 93 5
Tampa Bay 32 0
NY Islanders 23 0
Nashville 20 2
OUT Picks Cups
Chicago 305 29
Los Angeles 281 40
Anaheim 252 31
Florida 106 4
NY Rangers 48 7
Detroit 31 3
Philadelphia 16 2
Minnesota 0 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Braden Holtby would get another two shutouts while Evgeny Kuznetsov would only get one point.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
11Connor Brewster14673000.0%DAL
32Dan Salerno12864000.0%WSH
53Becke Gainforth12663000.0%WSH
94Vincent Galante12462000.0%DAL
25Andrew MacIntyre1186731623.9%WSH
195Shane Davey11859000.0%WSH
147Aaron Rowe-Jardine11560158.3%STL
308Silvio Memme11457000.0%WSH
308Jordan Ungerman11457000.0%WSH
308Hugh MacPhie11457000.0%SJS
308Mark Brewster11457000.0%NSH
312Robin Martin1126431625.0%WSH
3812Joel Kronis11256000.0%WSH
3812Jessica Thompson11256000.0%SJS
3812Lanny Cardow11256000.0%WSH
3816Jeff Brinston11156111.8%WSH
517Desmond Desrosier1106331625.4%WSH
1017Jacqui Snow1106131219.7%ANA
2519Fred McCutcheon109581712.1%WSH
1920Bruce Bird1085931016.9%WSH
1020Manuel LeBlanc1086121423.0%WSH
5520Alan Eng10854000.0%STL
5520Ethan Craig10854000.0%WSH
524Todd Beaman1076331930.2%WSH
1424Blair Phillips1076031321.7%ANA
3826Mohan Krishnamoorthy106562610.7%WSH
1427Stanley Tepner1056041525.0%WSH
3827David Loop105563712.5%WSH
1927Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff1055921322.0%NSH
1030Thomas Cheyne Matheson1046141829.5%WSH
2530Shane Firth1045841220.7%WSH
7630Molly McNulty10452000.0%DAL
3833Gavin Bailey103562916.1%WSH
3833Paula Santin103562916.1%DAL
535Chris Bulpit1026342438.1%WSH
8335Terry Hoey10251000.0%WSH
8335Jamie Sarner10251000.0%WSH
8335Sean Smith10251000.0%WSH
1039Glenn Zyzanski1016142134.4%WSH
3039Matthew Warner1015731322.8%WSH
6039Tim Smith10153159.4%WSH
1442Scott Munnoch1006042033.3%PIT
9042Brad Moulton10050000.0%WSH
1444Davin Suen986052236.7%CHI
3844Ron Wener985641425.0%WSH
1944Randy Stewart985932033.9%WSH
10644Brett Kirkpatrick9849000.0%PIT
3048Stephanie Robichaud975741729.8%DAL
3848Andrew Robichaud975631526.8%WSH
6048Shawn Robichaud97532917.0%DAL
6048Joel Greenstein97532917.0%STL
3852Pierre Maxime Gravelle965631628.6%DAL
11252Don Colangelo9648000.0%WSH
1954Steve Vinette955952339.0%CHI
5054Sam Fielding955541527.3%WSH
5054Pasqi Porco955531527.3%CHI
5554Samara McAdam955431324.1%ANA
6054Aaron Pretto955331120.8%WSH
6059Gareth Neilson945331222.6%ANA
6059Nigel Fowler945331222.6%PIT
9059Graham Haines94503612.0%WSH
9059Todd Foster94503612.0%LAK
6059Lindsey Baldwin945321222.6%WSH
5064Drew Battison935541730.9%CHI
5564Scott Poitras935431527.8%WSH
6064Andrew Ryan935331324.5%ANA
6064John Thompson935331324.5%STL
6064Owen Thompson935331324.5%DAL
6064Maria De Marco935331324.5%ANA
9064George Smith93503714.0%WSH
6071David Valenti925341426.4%LAK
7671Fraser Macdonald925231223.1%WSH
7671Martin Lefebvre925231223.1%WSH
12171Jonas Struthers9247124.3%DAL
1975Andrew Rudy915952745.8%CHI
2575Oren Meldung915852543.1%ANA
5075Neil Poitras915541934.5%WSH
9075Kevin Pinto91503918.0%ANA
5079Josh Epstein905552036.4%WSH
3879Laura Tackaberry905642239.3%WSH
6079Douglas Wilkinson905341630.2%WSH
10679Andrea De Petrillo90493816.3%ANA
13879Matthew Pledger9045000.0%DAL
7684Sal Scarfone895241528.8%ANA
8384Ian Winsor895131325.5%WSH
8384Fred Slade895131325.5%ANA
11287Ron Ego88483816.7%STL
6088Christopher Mossey875341935.8%WSH
9088Mark Norman875031326.0%PIT
11288Corey Jocelyn87482918.8%DAL
9091Leo Gaudet865041428.0%LAK
13191Scott Lee86463613.0%WSH
13891Patrick Gill8645348.9%LAK
2594Pierre Allard855863153.4%ANA
2594Laura Speciale855863153.4%CHI
6094David Stemmler855352139.6%LAK
7694Colin McSweeney855231936.5%CHI
13194Samuel Wexler85461715.2%DAL
3099Avery Spedding845763052.6%WSH
13899Erin McClement84453613.3%DAL
30101Austin Neilson835763154.4%WSH
60102Michael Sheahan825352445.3%WSH
83102Cooper Levens825152039.2%WSH
112102Kovi Smolack824841429.2%WSH
138102Adam Bloedow82454817.8%DAL
90102Sean Sargent825031836.0%WSH
151102Russell Reed82443613.6%WSH
151102Erin Jones82443613.6%LAK
151102Tim Sowden82443613.6%LAK
106110Alexander Bondarenko814941734.7%WSH
121110Vince DiNucci814731327.7%ANA
121110Jay Dart814731327.7%WSH
121110David Schamma814731327.7%WSH
55114Joey Speciale805462851.9%CHI
138114Brandon Kubis804541022.2%ANA
106114Ryan Thompson804931836.7%SJS
131114Shannon Brewster804631226.1%STL
171114Oliver Porebski8041224.9%DAL
184114Colin Kennedy8040000.0%SJS
76120Stephen Craig795262548.1%WSH
83120Mitch Wexler795142345.1%PIT
106122Paul Markowski784952040.8%ANA
138122Ryan Chirnomas784531226.7%WSH
121124Mike Melanson774751736.2%WSH
90125Matt MacDougall765062448.0%WSH
90125Brian Secord765062448.0%WSH
171125Mel McNulty76413614.6%DAL
202125Stuart MacIntyre7638000.0%SJS
131129Aron Slipacoff754631737.0%WSH
151129Sonia Speciale754431329.5%ANA
159129Evan Hoey754331125.6%PIT
171129Paul Martin75413717.1%WSH
171129Andy Hotson75413717.1%PIT
171129Brandon Poitras75413717.1%WSH
171129Peter Tanner75413717.1%PIT
90136Luke Borda745062652.0%WSH
121136Ryan Slack744762042.6%WSH
138136Della Santin744541635.6%CHI
138136Julian Vardy744541635.6%ANA
184136Jean Glassford74404615.0%DAL
171136Aaron Beder74413819.5%LAK
184136Jeff Wener74403615.0%WSH
184136Matthew Brenner74403615.0%WSH
76144Brock Vandrick735263159.6%WSH
131144Joel Borgida734661941.3%WSH
90144Luke McEachnie735052754.0%PIT
138144Marco Pazzano734551737.8%WSH
171144Keith Chappell73414922.0%PIT
171144Claude Gaudet73414922.0%LAK
90150Paula Brinston725062856.0%WSH
90150John Upper725062856.0%WSH
90150Tom Sheahan725062856.0%WSH
131150Trish Robichaud724642043.5%CHI
184150Vince Pileggi72403820.0%LAK
184150Chris Smith72403820.0%FLA
195150Ruth Haaima72393615.4%WSH
121157David Lester714752348.9%ANA
163157Brad Hotson714241331.0%DAL
163157Peter Jay714241331.0%WSH
151157Zack O'Gorman714431738.6%CHI
195157Carl Pledger71393717.9%LAK
90162Lee Beech705063060.0%CHI
112162Mike De Petrillo704862654.2%WSH
151162Ryan Chin704431840.9%CHI
208162Norrin Ripsman70373410.8%LAK
208162Eli Hammerman70372410.8%STL
106167Paul Baran694972959.2%WSH
112167Kevin Hinch694862756.3%WSH
112167Frank Pileggi694862756.3%WSH
151167Shawn Glassford694451943.2%LAK
112171Tim Billingsley684872858.3%CHI
112171Kento Onishi684862858.3%ANA
121171Edward Levens684762655.3%WSH
121171Brendan Roozen684752655.3%ANA
171171Angela Yanyk684151434.1%LAK
208171Harris Beder68373616.2%LAK
221171Gwen Clark-Smith6835325.7%DAL
138178Martha Gill674542351.1%ANA
171178Milton Howe674141536.6%WSH
184178Michael Varriano674041332.5%LAK
163178Sarah Wardell674231740.5%WSH
184178Denise Allard674031332.5%ANA
138183Gabe Pretto664562453.3%CHI
121184Aaron Allard654762961.7%CHI
138184Allan Boynton654562555.6%LAK
163184Alvin Gainforth654261945.2%WSH
171184Bryan Hill654151741.5%ANA
195184Chiara Cerzosimo653931333.3%PIT
214184Domenic DeMarco65363719.4%WSH
234184Siyeon Lee6533313.0%DAL
138191Joy Smith644562657.8%LAK
159191Larry Coole644362251.2%WSH
159191Richard Crowe644362251.2%WSH
151191Dave Poitras644452454.5%ANA
163191Judy Kruger644242047.6%WSH
202191Jeff Ware643831231.6%CHI
163197Kristoff Porebski634262150.0%LAK
184197Jeff Fox634041742.5%CHI
208197Allan Curtis633731129.7%PIT
214200Nolan Sarner623641027.8%LAK
221200Steve Sealy62354822.9%PIT
234200Jordan Katz62333412.1%LAK
163203Harper Christie-Allard614262354.8%CHI
195203Patrick Mitchell613961743.6%NYR
214203Dave Michael613651130.6%LAK
221203Richard Gretzinger61355925.7%WSH
230203Amelia Thompson61343720.6%DAL
230203Donna Thompson61343720.6%STL
214209Ryan McLennan603661233.3%LAK
221209Ava McAdam-Beder603541028.6%LAK
234209Mike Siegler60333618.2%LAK
131212Campbell Clark-Smith594663371.7%ANA
171212Stacy Martin594162356.1%ANA
221212Jim Dart593551131.4%PIT
184215Kevin Boomer584062255.0%LAK
195215Ruth Beder583962051.3%ANA
241215David Hart58323618.8%LAK
159218Dryden Craig574362967.4%CHI
195218Sherri Rowe573962153.8%ANA
208220Tracy Smith563761848.6%ANA
241220Laurena Clark56324825.0%LAK
163222Sophie Wexler554272969.0%FLA
241223Michael Lau543241031.3%STL
245223Stephen Weir54313825.8%STL
250223James Smith5428327.1%DET
202226Brad EJ Hotson533862360.5%DAL
184227Al Champsi524062870.0%ANA
195227Nathan Slack523962666.7%CHI
241229Ted Kennedy513271340.6%LAK
202229Blair Miller513862565.8%LAK
202229Dennis Clayton513862565.8%LAK
208232Peta Allard503762464.9%LAK
214233Rob Phillips493662363.9%CHI
221233Diego DeMarco493562160.0%LAK
214235Hung Dang483662466.7%CHI
221235Linda Veryzer483562262.9%LAK
230237Dave Spedding473462161.8%LAK
202238Noah Bloedow453883181.6%FLA
234238Duncan Campbell453352163.6%CHI
234240Nolan Coole443372266.7%NYR
221241Aaron Curtis433572777.1%CHI
249241James Yanyk432971551.7%LAK
251243David Van Kula422761244.4%CHI
256243Emma and Andrew Fielding42256832.0%PHI
214245Elena Noble413683186.1%NYR
251245Paul Groba412761348.1%LAK
251247Aidan Hoey402761451.9%NYR
230248Rachelle Gaudet393482985.3%DET
245248Sanjay Talwar393182374.2%FLA
245248Brendan Hoey393172374.2%NYR
256251Judah Gould372561352.0%LAK
221252Thomas Smith3535935100.0%ANA
251253Andrew Mckenzie342762074.1%LAK
234254Marie Loop3333933100.0%LAK
234254Jordan Reznick3333933100.0%NYR
248256Brenden Kennedy3030930100.0%PHI
256256Andrew Johnstone302572080.0%CHI
260258Mike van Steendelaar292171361.9%CHI
251259Sohee Kim2727927100.0%NYR
259259Stacey Hartley272281777.3%CHI
261261Hanna-Marea Kennedy221671062.5%DET







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