
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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Braden Holtby proved his worth with two shutouts in round one. |
For those who missed it: also see the Opening Analysis.
After a few years of relatively quiet opening rounds, we are back to a year of upsets. Three of the top four favourites - Chicago, Los Angeles, and Anaheim - made early exits leaving just Dallas and Pittsburgh to challenge Washington in the top six. With either the Caps or Pens to be out next, we will see further depletion of the ranks.
In total, 44% of the pool is out of play - the 5th highest round one elimination rate in the 18 years of the pool, and for just the second time, over 1,000 picks were knocked out in the opening round, along with over 100 Cup picks.
Some big names were knocked out including Patrick Kane (123 picks) and leading defenseman Drew Doughty (85 picks), while Washington goalie Braden Holtby, the leading goaltender with 125 picks, proved himself an essential pick 15 points including two shutouts and an assist.
Congratulations to Connor Brewster on his first round lead with 73 points, after a record-setting round where he led from day two (none of his players played on day one). Connor smashed the single-day pool record of 18 points with 21 on April 14, and for good measure he matched the former record of 18 on the final night to put book-ends on a dominant round. Andrew MacIntyre sits in second with 67 points, six behind, while Dan Salerno and Robin Martin are in third with 64. However, Andrew and Robin have both lost two players, while other close competitors have lost three, giving Connor some extra breathing room.
Of the close competitors with a full slate, both Dan and Becke Gainforth (5th) stand to lose at least three players from either the Caps or Pens while Vince Galante, in 8th, will lose at least one. Down the list, Hugh MacPhie will also lose three.
All this means that if the cards are dealt his way, Connor will expand his lead significantly into round three. On the other hand... if Washington and the Islanders are knocked out (see my predictions below), all bets are off.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
The first round leader has 73 points, the second-highest ever. The record 78 was set in 2010, but every other year the first-round leader had between 53 and 63 points. Connor Brewster cleared the rest of the pack by an easy 10 points - similar to his lead on the rest of the pool. He did this own, not because of a high-scoring year.
There were 24 unscathed entries this year (9% of the total entries), the lowest since 2012. Five entries were completely wiped out in round 1 this year, the second-highest ever recorded and top five as a percentage.
Drew Doughty is awarded the Biggest Bust this year after leading defensemen with 85 picks and getting just a single point. He may be a great defenseman, but in this pool - with his team knocked out in the first round and him only collecting the one tally - a lot more was expected.
Biggest busts over the years: 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year we have a few picks in this category that will continue into round 2. Logan Couture (San) was picked only by Myeongja Kim, and has a respectable 6 points to help Myeongja reach 5th place. Meanwhile Dallas goalie Kari Lehtonen has 8 points for Paula Santin and Jean Glassford and appears to be cementing his starting goalie status for round 2.
Major players on their way out: Kane, Chi, 123 picks; Perry, Ana, 89; Kopitar, Los, 89; Doughty, Los, 85; Getzlaf, Ana, 85; Quick, Los, 50; Toews, Chi, 50; Keith, Chi, 45; Panarin, Chi, 38; Jagr, Fla, 37; Vatanen, Ana, 35; Carter, Los, 30.
I know not to bet on Washington or San Jose - ever. I still picked the Caps to win round 1, but their luck will end when Pittsburgh delivers the pool's big blow in round 2. I bet on the Sharks to lose round 1 but this time I am picking them to make it just one more round (they'll lost to Dallas next round). I was a pool 4/8 in round 1, here's hoping I even up my record with these picks: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Jose.
Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Jamie Benn |
DAL |
10 |
102 |
John Tavares |
NYI |
9 |
15 |
Jason Spezza |
DAL |
9 |
28 |
Reilly Smith |
FLA |
8 |
0 |
Nikita Kucherov |
TAM |
8 |
7 |
Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
8 |
97 |
Jason Pominville |
MIN |
7 |
0 |
Jaden Schwartz |
STL |
7 |
3 |
Tyler Johnson |
TAM |
7 |
4 |
Evgeni Malkin |
PIT |
7 |
12 |
Artemi Panarin |
CHI |
7 |
38 |
Nicklas Backstrom |
WAS |
7 |
80 |
Patrick Kane |
CHI |
7 |
123 |
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Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Brent Burns |
SAN |
8 |
36 |
Alex Pietrangelo |
STL |
6 |
6 |
John Carlson |
WAS |
6 |
35 |
Jared Spurgeon |
MIN |
5 |
0 |
Jake Muzzin |
LOS |
5 |
2 |
Shea Weber |
NAS |
5 |
5 |
Duncan Keith |
CHI |
5 |
45 |
Kris Letang |
PIT |
5 |
76 |
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Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Braden Holtby |
WAS |
15 |
125 |
Brian Elliott |
STL |
9 |
5 |
Ben Bishop |
TAM |
9 |
6 |
Matt Murray |
PIT |
8 |
0 |
Kari Lehtonen |
DAL |
8 |
2 |
Frederik Andersen |
ANA |
8 |
2 |
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Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
Washington |
513 |
92 |
Dallas |
264 |
22 |
Pittsburgh |
239 |
14 |
St. Louis |
126 |
10 |
San Jose |
93 |
5 |
Tampa Bay |
32 |
0 |
NY Islanders |
23 |
0 |
Nashville |
20 |
2 |
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OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
Chicago |
305 |
29 |
Los Angeles |
281 |
40 |
Anaheim |
252 |
31 |
Florida |
106 |
4 |
NY Rangers |
48 |
7 |
Detroit |
31 |
3 |
Philadelphia |
16 |
2 |
Minnesota |
0 |
0 |
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Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round
2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Braden Holtby would get another two shutouts while Evgeny Kuznetsov would only get one point.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
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