
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
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Martin Jones took over the spotlight with two more shutouts in Round 3 and is now the top pick in the pool. |
Round three was a tale of two goalies. One would lift a team and a pool entry's fortunes, and the other would be felled spelling the end to an impressive two-year run.
Martin Jones' two shutouts lifted the San Jose Sharks into to their first ever Stanley Cup final, and caused a significant change in the standings. Though he was picked only three times, it was enough to carry Jessica Thompson into the pool lead, jumping there early in the round from ninth. Jessica is now an odds-on favourite to finish in the top three (the money spots) for an incredible third year in a row. The shutouts also helped Matthew Pledger into the top ten from 27th after round two.
While Jones surged into the lead for pool points, the previous leader Ben Bishop injured his leg in game one and never returned. This ended an impressive run that began in 2015, when the Lightning went to the Cup final and Bishop was hands down the top player. As for why Tampa Bay received far fewer picks this year after their success last year, including Bishop, we don't know, but they certainly gave their value, between Bishop, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov.
Despite having only 93 picks to Pittsburgh's 239, all of the top ten in the pool have three San Jose players, typically Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns, and Joe Thornton although two people (as mentioned above) have goalie Martin Jones and one person has scoring leader Logan Couture. In contrast, only five of the top ten have Penguins picks. And as it goes in this pool, for those five entries it is the Penguins picks that will solidify their top spots or carry them up a few positions in the final round.
As we often see in the final round, most of the contenders have some of the same players, so the difference-makers are fewer than it appears. This year we will see a challenging battle between Dan Salerno, who managed to tie for first at the end of round three after hovering in third since the start, and the aforementioned Jessica Thompson and her goalie. A Sharks win would give Jessica the victory with the Cup bonus, but otherwise it will be an epic battle between Joe Thornton and Evgeni Malkin for Dan against Martin Jones and Phil Kessel for Jessica. A San Jose shutout could be a tipping point. Hugh MacPhie is in great position to claim third, with Thornton and Kessel as his difference-makers.
In the case of a Pittsburgh win, the battle noted above will be the critical thing to watch. Dan vs Jessica for first and second, with Hugh likely passing round two leader Silvio Memme for third. Matthew Pledger will look for a Martin Jones shutout to help bridge a five-point gap between him and Hugh for third. Unfortunately there are no Penguins pickers within range if they win - the top entry is Brett Kirkpatrick who starts in 16th and should crack the top ten but maybe not the top five.
If San Jose wins, it is nearly a lock for Jessica, while Hugh could easily jump into second place leaving Dan in third. Since Silvio and Brad Moulton can't make an gains, the only challenger could be Matthew who would need a couple of Jones shutouts to challenge for the podium.
Good luck to all!
Pittsburgh win | |
| | San Jose win | |
Dan Salerno | 140 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Malkin, Letang | |
Jessica Thompson | 140 (+10) | Jones, Pavelski, Burns, Kessel, Crosby, Letang |
Jessica Thompson | 140 | Jones, Pavelski, Burns, Kessel, Crosby, Letang | |
Hugh MacPhie | 134 (+10) | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang |
Silvio Memme | 136 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton | |
Dan Salerno | 140 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Malkin, Letang |
Hugh MacPhie | 134 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang | |
Silvio Memme | 136 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton |
Brad Moulton | 130 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton | |
Brad Moulton | 130 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton |
Matthew Pledger | 129 | Jones, Pavelski, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang | |
Matthew Pledger | 129 | Jones, Pavelski, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang |
Sean Smith | 127 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton | |
Sean Smith | 127 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton |
Brett Kirkpatrick | 123 (+10) | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang, Fleury | |
Fred McCutcheon | 123 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang |
Fred McCutcheon | 123 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang | |
Molly McNulty | 123 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton |
Molly McNulty | 123 | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton | |
Colin Kennedy | 112 (+10) | Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Fleury |
Hot |
Pos. Gain (R2,R3) |
|
Hot |
Rd3 Pts. |
Steve Sealy |
74 (159,84) |
|
Matthew Pledger |
43 |
Dave Michael |
57 (197,140) |
|
Jessica Thompson |
41 |
Donna Thompson |
55 (159,104) |
|
Hugh MacPhie |
34 |
Shawn Glassford |
52 (149,97) |
|
Dan Salerno |
34 |
Andy Hotson |
50 (130,80) |
|
Colin Kennedy |
34 |
|
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|
|
Not |
Pos. Loss (R2,R3) |
|
Not |
Rd3 Pts. |
Pierre Maxime Gravelle |
38 (71,109) |
|
96 People with: |
0 |
Steve Vinette |
36 (78,114) |
|
|
|
Zack O'Gorman |
36 (82,118) |
|
|
|
Ethan Craig, Maria De Marco, Austin Nielson, Owen Thompson |
34 (88,122) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Top Players |
Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Logan Couture |
SAN |
24 |
1 |
Joe Pavelski |
SAN |
22 |
26 |
Nikita Kucherov |
TAM |
19 |
7 |
Joe Thornton |
SAN |
18 |
24 |
Phil Kessel |
PIT |
18 |
33 |
Tyler Johnson |
TAM |
17 |
4 |
Nick Bonino |
PIT |
15 |
1 |
Robby Fabbri |
STL |
15 |
1 |
Evgeni Malkin |
PIT |
15 |
12 |
Vladimir Tarasenko |
STL |
15 |
52 |
Sidney Crosby |
PIT |
15 |
97 |
Jamie Benn |
DAL |
15 |
102 |
|
Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Brent Burns |
SAN |
20 |
36 |
Victor Hedman |
TAM |
14 |
9 |
John Carlson |
WAS |
12 |
35 |
Marc-Edouard Vlasic |
SAN |
11 |
0 |
Kevin Shattenkirk |
STL |
11 |
34 |
Alex Pietrangelo |
STL |
10 |
6 |
Kris Letang |
PIT |
10 |
76 |
Roman Josi |
NAS |
9 |
6 |
Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
Martin Jones |
SAN |
27 |
3 |
Ben Bishop |
TAM |
18 |
6 |
Braden Holtby |
WAS |
17 |
125 |
Matt Murray |
PIT |
16 |
0 |
|
Teams |
IN |
Picks |
Cups |
Pittsburgh |
239 |
14 |
San Jose |
93 |
5 |
|
OUT |
Picks |
Cups |
St Louis |
126 |
10 |
Tampa Bay |
32 |
0 |
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Going 1-1 in Round 3 puts me at 8-6 overall and ensures I'll finish above .500 this year. But 9-6 sounds a lot better than 8-7 so I will definitely pick the winner in the final. Pittsburgh! Yes the Sharks are long overdue, and they'll continue to be. Cup #2 for Crosby, which is definitely also long overdue.
Here are the projected scores and rankings for after
round 4, not including the Cup winner bonus. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you
have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first
three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!
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