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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Martin Jones took over the spotlight with two more shutouts in Round 3 and is now the top pick in the pool.
Martin Jones took over the spotlight with two more shutouts in Round 3 and is now the top pick in the pool.

Round 3 Analysis
Round three was a tale of two goalies. One would lift a team and a pool entry's fortunes, and the other would be felled spelling the end to an impressive two-year run.

Martin Jones' two shutouts lifted the San Jose Sharks into to their first ever Stanley Cup final, and caused a significant change in the standings. Though he was picked only three times, it was enough to carry Jessica Thompson into the pool lead, jumping there early in the round from ninth. Jessica is now an odds-on favourite to finish in the top three (the money spots) for an incredible third year in a row. The shutouts also helped Matthew Pledger into the top ten from 27th after round two.

While Jones surged into the lead for pool points, the previous leader Ben Bishop injured his leg in game one and never returned. This ended an impressive run that began in 2015, when the Lightning went to the Cup final and Bishop was hands down the top player. As for why Tampa Bay received far fewer picks this year after their success last year, including Bishop, we don't know, but they certainly gave their value, between Bishop, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov.

Sharks picks dominating the leaderboard
Despite having only 93 picks to Pittsburgh's 239, all of the top ten in the pool have three San Jose players, typically Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns, and Joe Thornton although two people (as mentioned above) have goalie Martin Jones and one person has scoring leader Logan Couture. In contrast, only five of the top ten have Penguins picks. And as it goes in this pool, for those five entries it is the Penguins picks that will solidify their top spots or carry them up a few positions in the final round.

The contenders
As we often see in the final round, most of the contenders have some of the same players, so the difference-makers are fewer than it appears. This year we will see a challenging battle between Dan Salerno, who managed to tie for first at the end of round three after hovering in third since the start, and the aforementioned Jessica Thompson and her goalie. A Sharks win would give Jessica the victory with the Cup bonus, but otherwise it will be an epic battle between Joe Thornton and Evgeni Malkin for Dan against Martin Jones and Phil Kessel for Jessica. A San Jose shutout could be a tipping point. Hugh MacPhie is in great position to claim third, with Thornton and Kessel as his difference-makers.

In the case of a Pittsburgh win, the battle noted above will be the critical thing to watch. Dan vs Jessica for first and second, with Hugh likely passing round two leader Silvio Memme for third. Matthew Pledger will look for a Martin Jones shutout to help bridge a five-point gap between him and Hugh for third. Unfortunately there are no Penguins pickers within range if they win - the top entry is Brett Kirkpatrick who starts in 16th and should crack the top ten but maybe not the top five.

If San Jose wins, it is nearly a lock for Jessica, while Hugh could easily jump into second place leaving Dan in third. Since Silvio and Brad Moulton can't make an gains, the only challenger could be Matthew who would need a couple of Jones shutouts to challenge for the podium.

Good luck to all!

Pittsburgh win San Jose win
Dan Salerno140Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Malkin, Letang  Jessica Thompson140 (+10)Jones, Pavelski, Burns, Kessel, Crosby, Letang
Jessica Thompson140Jones, Pavelski, Burns, Kessel, Crosby, Letang  Hugh MacPhie134 (+10)Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang
Silvio Memme136Pavelski, Burns, Thornton  Dan Salerno140Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Malkin, Letang
Hugh MacPhie134Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang  Silvio Memme136Pavelski, Burns, Thornton
Brad Moulton130Pavelski, Burns, Thornton  Brad Moulton130Pavelski, Burns, Thornton
Matthew Pledger129Jones, Pavelski, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang  Matthew Pledger129Jones, Pavelski, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Letang
Sean Smith127Pavelski, Burns, Thornton  Sean Smith127Pavelski, Burns, Thornton
Brett Kirkpatrick123 (+10)Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang, Fleury  Fred McCutcheon123Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang
Fred McCutcheon123Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Crosby, Letang  Molly McNulty123Pavelski, Burns, Thornton
Molly McNulty123Pavelski, Burns, Thornton  Colin Kennedy112 (+10)Pavelski, Burns, Thornton, Kessel, Crosby, Fleury

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Hot Pos. Gain (R2,R3)   Hot Rd3 Pts.
Steve Sealy 74 (159,84)   Matthew Pledger 43
Dave Michael 57 (197,140)   Jessica Thompson 41
Donna Thompson 55 (159,104)   Hugh MacPhie 34
Shawn Glassford 52 (149,97)   Dan Salerno 34
Andy Hotson 50 (130,80)   Colin Kennedy 34
 
Not Pos. Loss (R2,R3)   Not Rd3 Pts.
Pierre Maxime Gravelle 38 (71,109)   96 People with: 0
Steve Vinette 36 (78,114)  
Zack O'Gorman 36 (82,118)  
Ethan Craig, Maria De Marco, Austin Nielson, Owen Thompson 34 (88,122)  
 
 

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Logan Couture SAN 24 1
Joe Pavelski SAN 22 26
Nikita Kucherov TAM 19 7
Joe Thornton SAN 18 24
Phil Kessel PIT 18 33
Tyler Johnson TAM 17 4
Nick Bonino PIT 15 1
Robby Fabbri STL 15 1
Evgeni Malkin PIT 15 12
Vladimir Tarasenko STL 15 52
Sidney Crosby PIT 15 97
Jamie Benn DAL 15 102
Defense Team Pts Picks
Brent Burns SAN 20 36
Victor Hedman TAM 14 9
John Carlson WAS 12 35
Marc-Edouard Vlasic SAN 11 0
Kevin Shattenkirk STL 11 34
Alex Pietrangelo STL 10 6
Kris Letang PIT 10 76
Roman Josi NAS 9 6
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Martin Jones SAN 27 3
Ben Bishop TAM 18 6
Braden Holtby WAS 17 125
Matt Murray PIT 16 0
Teams
IN Picks Cups
Pittsburgh 239 14
San Jose 93 5
OUT Picks Cups
St Louis 126 10
Tampa Bay 32 0

Mitch's prediction
Going 1-1 in Round 3 puts me at 8-6 overall and ensures I'll finish above .500 this year. But 9-6 sounds a lot better than 8-7 so I will definitely pick the winner in the final. Pittsburgh! Yes the Sharks are long overdue, and they'll continue to be. Cup #2 for Crosby, which is definitely also long overdue.

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4, not including the Cup winner bonus. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. Of course, if you have no players left, you will definitely have the same score as you have now!

(R1)
(R2)
(R3)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd4 Projection
38911Jessica Thompson1406SJS177
3312Dan Salerno1406WSH173
30843Hugh MacPhie1346SJS168
1382764Matthew Pledger1296DAL165
30135Silvio Memme1363WSH156
251686Fred McCutcheon1235WSH151
90457Brad Moulton1303WSH150
83678Sean Smith1273WSH147
56109Desmond Desrosier1223WSH144
764810Molly McNulty1233DAL143
184601710Colin Kennedy1126SJS143
60111012Tim Smith1223WSH142
106301613Brett Kirkpatrick1136PIT141
5111314Todd Beaman1193WSH139
30111314Jordan Ungerman1193WSH139
121216Connor Brewster1212DAL135
9141516Vincent Galante1163DAL135
106321716Ryan Thompson1123SJS135
83202019Terry Hoey1103WSH130
83202019Jamie Sarner1103WSH130
202362221Stuart MacIntyre1093SJS129
90302522Graham Haines1063WSH126
38171923Lanny Cardow1112WSH125
55202324Alan Eng1073STL120
55363125Scott Poitras1003WSH118
38172326Joel Kronis1072WSH117
5172727Becke Gainforth1033WSH116
19252928Shane Davey1013WSH115
38503229Paula Santin993DAL114
1492530Aaron Rowe-Jardine1061STL109
90653530Mark Norman953PIT109
2152832Andrew MacIntyre1021WSH108
50463832Pasqi Porco933CHI108
60273334Joel Greenstein972STL105
60884135Nigel Fowler913PIT104
60714435Lindsey Baldwin893WSH104
19203337Randy Stewart971WSH103
3253537Robin Martin952WSH103
50323539Drew Battison951CHI102
121604239Jonas Struthers902DAL102
14684439Scott Munnoch893PIT102
171885139Peter Tanner883PIT102
112202943Don Colangelo1010WSH101
30273843Mark Brewster932NSH101
38364045Mohan Krishnamoorthy922WSH100
5544445Chris Bulpit892WSH100
76825645Fraser Macdonald863WSH100
1381106148Julian Vardy853ANA99
138785649Ryan Chirnomas862WSH98
106785649Alexander Bondarenko862WSH98
83956349Mitch Wexler843PIT98
131956349Samuel Wexler843DAL98
90956349Kevin Pinto843ANA98
10424454Manuel LeBlanc892WSH97
1061027254Andrea De Petrillo833ANA97
10505556Thomas Cheyne Matheson872WSH95
38826357Ron Wener842WSH94
76826357Colin McSweeney843CHI94
19365159Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff881NSH93
38687259Laura Tackaberry832WSH93
1711308059Andy Hotson803PIT93
2211598559Steve Sealy793PIT93
1381258559Patrick Gill793LAK93
14465664Davin Suen861CHI92
55716364Samara McAdam842ANA92
38656364Gavin Bailey842WSH92
1711168064Milton Howe802WSH92
30716368Stephanie Robichaud841DAL91
1511379768Erin Jones773LAK91
1511499768Shawn Glassford773LAK91
1511379768Tim Sowden773LAK91
60464272Gareth Neilson900ANA90
10506172Jacqui Snow851ANA90
60324474John Thompson890STL89
60324474Andrew Ryan890ANA89
90424474Todd Foster890LAK89
76365177Martin Lefebvre880WSH88
83365177Fred Slade880ANA88
25888579Oren Meldung792ANA87
18413710479Jeff Fox762CHI87
23015910479Donna Thompson763STL87
13815811479Erin McClement743DAL87
60545683Aaron Pretto860WSH86
1511219283Ryan Chin783CHI86
17117412885Keith Chappell713PIT85
112546386Ron Ego840STL84
60829286Shawn Robichaud781DAL84
18418013386Vince Pileggi703LAK84
151957289Sonia Speciale830ANA83
12112510989David Lester752ANA83
6011610989Christopher Mossey752WSH83
9018013389Lee Beech703CHI83
19518614089Carl Pledger693LAK83
21419714089Dave Michael693LAK83
13818614089Joy Smith693LAK83
19427596Bruce Bird820WSH82
14427596Stanley Tepner820WSH82
19514911496Chiara Cerzosimo743PIT82
138687799Martha Gill810ANA81
14467799Blair Phillips810ANA81
76607799Sal Scarfone810ANA81
6010210499David Stemmler761LAK81
17113711899Aaron Beder732LAK81
17113711899Claude Gaudet732LAK81
11219214899Kento Onishi683ANA81
1217180106Vince DiNucci800ANA80
1217180106David Schamma800WSH80
105080106Glenn Zyzanski800WSH80
197197106Andrew Rudy771CHI80
60102109106David Valenti751LAK80
50102109106Josh Epstein751WSH80
163202157106Harper Christie-Allard663CHI80
385485113Andrew Robichaud790WSH79
1317885113Shannon Brewster790STL79
385485113Jeff Brinston790WSH79
385485113David Loop790WSH79
106110114113Paul Markowski741ANA79
214167128113Nolan Sarner712LAK79
221205158113Gwen Clark-Smith653DAL79
256092120Shane Firth780WSH78
15111092120Dave Poitras780ANA78
306092120Matthew Warner780WSH78
608297123Douglas Wilkinson770WSH77
2089597123Norrin Ripsman770LAK77
506597123Sam Fielding770WSH77
83121122123Ian Winsor721WSH77
208137122123Harris Beder721LAK77
90149140123Leo Gaudet692LAK77
195211172123Ruth Beder633ANA77
234211172123Siyeon Lee633DAL77
131102104131Scott Lee760WSH76
195110104131Ruth Haaima760WSH76
184197158131Denise Allard653ANA76
234219176131Jordan Katz623LAK76
3871109135Pierre Maxime Gravelle750DAL75
60130133135Michael Sheahan701WSH75
163159153135Peter Jay672WSH75
90159153135Luke McEachnie673PIT75
208226183135Tracy Smith613ANA75
1978114140Steve Vinette740CHI74
221211176140Jim Dart623PIT74
195219183140Sherri Rowe613ANA74
234116118143Mike Siegler730LAK73
15182118143Zack O'Gorman730CHI73
184159153143Jean Glassford671DAL73
138174158143Brandon Kubis652ANA73
3088122147Austin Neilson720WSH72
6088122147Maria De Marco720ANA72
5588122147Ethan Craig720WSH72
6088122147Owen Thompson720DAL72
112121140147Corey Jocelyn691DAL72
159180167147Evan Hoey643PIT72
195226183147Nathan Slack613CHI72
214121128154Domenic DeMarco710WSH71
2595128154Pierre Allard710ANA71
2595128154Laura Speciale710CHI71
30102133157Avery Spedding700WSH70
90102133157George Smith700WSH70
121102133157Brendan Roozen700ANA70
138125133157Adam Bloedow700DAL70
230226192157Amelia Thompson593DAL70
221231201157Diego DeMarco583LAK70
184149140163Matthew Brenner690WSH69
90110140163Sean Sargent690WSH69
55110140163Joey Speciale690CHI69
241219183163Michael Lau612STL69
221197183163Ava McAdam-Beder612LAK69
214235201163Rob Phillips583CHI69
171125148169Angela Yanyk680LAK68
138125148169Marco Pazzano680WSH68
50116148169Neil Poitras680WSH68
131116148169Aron Slipacoff680WSH68
208192153173Eli Hammerman670STL67
184205192173Kevin Boomer592LAK67
234236212173Duncan Campbell563CHI67
184186183176Michael Varriano611LAK66
131209201176Campbell Clark-Smith583ANA66
90130158178Brian Secord650WSH65
171130158178Oliver Porebski650DAL65
76130158178Stephen Craig650WSH65
90130158178Luke Borda650WSH65
90130158178Matt MacDougall650WSH65
163159158178Judy Kruger650WSH65
121137167184Aaron Allard640CHI64
131137167184Trish Robichaud640CHI64
90137167184John Upper640WSH64
112137167184Kovi Smolack640WSH64
171147172188Mel McNulty630DAL63
121147172188Jay Dart630WSH63
208226216188Allan Curtis553PIT63
112149176191Mike De Petrillo620WSH62
83149176191Cooper Levens620WSH62
151149176191Russell Reed620WSH62
76149176191Brock Vandrick620WSH62
163149176191Sarah Wardell620WSH62
163231219191Sophie Wexler542FLA62
245192189197Stephen Weir600STL60
121159189197Ryan Slack600WSH60
171159189197Brandon Poitras600WSH60
121167192200Mike Melanson590WSH59
184167192200Chris Smith590FLA59
90167192200Tom Sheahan590WSH59
251238192200Paul Groba590LAK59
131167192200Joel Borgida590WSH59
138167192200Allan Boynton590LAK59
90167192200Paula Brinston590WSH59
106174201207Paul Baran580WSH58
221219201207Aaron Curtis580CHI58
112174201207Kevin Hinch580WSH58
171174201207Stacy Martin580ANA58
112174201207Frank Pileggi580WSH58
171180209212Paul Martin570WSH57
121180209212Edward Levens570WSH57
112180209212Tim Billingsley570CHI57
138186212215Della Santin560CHI56
184186212215Jeff Wener560WSH56
202186212215Jeff Ware560CHI56
138192216218Gabe Pretto550CHI55
163192216218Kristoff Porebski550LAK55
184197219220Al Champsi540ANA54
159197219220Dryden Craig540CHI54
221236232220Linda Veryzer491LAK54
250246240220James Smith463DET54
159202222224Richard Crowe530WSH53
159202222224Larry Coole530WSH53
171205224226Bryan Hill520ANA52
214205224226Ryan McLennan520LAK52
163209226228Brad Hotson510DAL51
202245240228Noah Bloedow461FLA51
202211227230Dennis Clayton500LAK50
214211227230Hung Dang500CHI50
202211227230Brad EJ Hotson500DAL50
241211227230David Hart500LAK50
202211227230Blair Miller500LAK50
195219232235Patrick Mitchell490NYR49
221231232235Richard Gretzinger490WSH49
163219232235Alvin Gainforth490WSH49
208219232235Peta Allard490LAK49
241226237239Laurena Clark480LAK48
256241237239Emma and Andrew Fielding480PHI48
251238237239Andrew Mckenzie480LAK48
230234240242Dave Spedding460LAK46
234241243243Nolan Coole440NYR44
214238244244Elena Noble430NYR43
245252250244Sanjay Talwar381FLA43
230243245246Rachelle Gaudet410DET41
241243245246Ted Kennedy410LAK41
256246247248Judah Gould390LAK39
245246247248Brendan Hoey390NYR39
251246247248David Van Kula390CHI39
249250251251James Yanyk360LAK36
221251252252Thomas Smith350ANA35
234252253253Jordan Reznick330NYR33
251252253253Aidan Hoey330NYR33
234252253253Marie Loop330LAK33
256256256256Andrew Johnstone320CHI32
260256256256Mike van Steendelaar320CHI32
248258258258Brenden Kennedy300PHI30
259259259259Stacey Hartley290CHI29
251260260260Sohee Kim270NYR27
261261261261Hanna-Marea Kennedy230DET23







Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.