Lord Stanley's Pool 2016 - Round 2 Analysis

Round 2 continued where the first round left off, knocking out heavily-favoured teams and with them, the hopes of most of the participants in the pool. 79% of this year's player picks (4th-most all-time after round 2) and 89% of Cup picks (3rd-most) are now on the sidelines, similar to 2012, when 83% of players and 82% of Cup picks were on the sidelines.

And though I'm kicking them when they're down, it's worth stating: the Washington Capitals have put us in this position before. 2010's Caps, one of the most heavily-picked teams in pool history with 25% of player picks (of a possible 33%) and 31% of Cups but falling in round 1, compares similarly to this year's 22%/35%. Other big team failures include the 2012 Penguins and 2014 Bruins (both had over 100 Cup picks), the 2004 Maple Leafs (50% of Cup picks, most ever knocked out in the early rounds), and the 1999, 2000 and 2003 Red Wings.

This year's Capitals were found on 192 of the pool's 261 entries, including 150 people who had three Caps players. Dallas' 264 picks were found across 112 entries (66 had three). Very few poolies were spared this round, and none whom were spared Round 1's carnage.

The higher they fly...
Connor Brewster seemed safely out front, with a strong roster and the look of a pool victor, but all that changed in a hurry. Despite having led by as much as eight points and staying consistently out front since a record-breaking opening day, Connor was overtaken by Silvio Memme on the penultimate night of the round. To make matters worse, Connor lost seven players and will only find himself falling from here.

Silvio leads after two rounds with 110 points, three points over Connor's 107, with Dan Salerno in third with 106. Brad Moulton and Molly McNulty round out the top five with 102 each. Only three people remain from the top ten from round one, with Brad's climb from 90th the biggest step up into the leaderboard.

No one enters round three unscathed. Colin Kennedy is the only poolie with seven players remaining (and that includes Marc-Andre Fleury, who hasn't played to this point). Thirteen entries have six players left and another nine have five. The contenders for the pool victory should be found among these people.

Sharks nearly irrelevant to outcome
Of those with five or more players remaining, nine of the thirteen in the pool's top 50 have the same three Sharks: Burns, Pavelski and Thornton, making their performance nearly irrelevant - it will not change the standings. Jessica Thompson has Martin Jones instead of Thornton, while Joel Kronis, Alan Eng, and Joel Greenstein have no Sharks. So the outcome of the pool will depend on who is scoring for the Penguins and Blues, and (for the above three) whether the Pens and Blues can outscore those Sharks.

Hindsight Award, Part 2
This year we see three players among the NHL scoring leaders who were picked by but one poolie. Myeongja Kim's pick of Logan Couture - the league leader with 17 points - was as inspired as they come, helping her into the top ten in the standings. Also notable, rookie Robby Fabbri's 13 points has him in the top five scorers, a big help to Mike Siegler, while David Backes has 12 points for Fred Slade.

Mitch's predictions
It never fails, betting on the Capitals to lose - especially in the second round - is an easy one. I was wrong about Dallas, but 3/4 in round 2 puts me at 7-5 overall this year. This round though they are not the favourites, I will still call for the other chokers, San Jose, to lose, leading to a Pittsburgh-St. Louis final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Stuart MacIntyre and Silvio Memme were the hottest poolies in round two, with Stuart jumping from 202nd to 36th and Silvio topping the list with 53 points to move into first place in the pool. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Stuart MacIntyre	166 (202,36)	Silvio Memme	53
Colin Kennedy	124 (184,60)	Brad Moulton	52
Mike Siegler	118 (234,116)	Molly McNulty	50
Norrin Ripsman	113 (208,95)	Sean Smith	50
Matthew Pledger	111 (138,27)	Tim Smith, Stuart MacIntyre	45
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Lee Beech	90 (90,180)	5 poolies with	0
Kento Onishi	80 (112,192)
Campbell Clark-Smith	78 (131,209)
Tom Sheahan, Paula Brinston	77 (90,167)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Logan Couture SAN 17 1

Jamie Benn DAL 15 102

Colin Wilson NAS 13 0

Robby Fabbri STL 13 1

Tyler Johnson TAM 13 4

Joe Pavelski SAN 13 26

Jason Spezza DAL 13 28

Vladimir Tarasenko STL 13 52

4 players with 12

Defense Team Pts Picks

Brent Burns SAN 15 36

John Carlson WAS 12 35

Kevin Shattenkirk STL 10 34

Roman Josi NAS 9 6

Victor Hedman TAM 9 9

Marc-Edouard Vlasic SAN 8 0

Kris Letang PIT 8 76

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Ben Bishop TAM 18 6

Braden Holtby WAS 17 125

Martin Jones SAN 13 3

Brian Elliott STL 13 5

Matt Murray PIT 12 0

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Pittsburgh 239 14

St. Louis 126 10

San Jose 93 5

Tampa Bay 32 0

OUT Picks Cups

Washington 513 92

Dallas 264 22

NY Islanders 23 0

Nashville 20 2

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2. So all four goalies should get four wins, right?

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

30 1 1 Silvio Memme 110 6 WSH 145
3 3 2 Dan Salerno 106 6 WSH 139
90 4 3 Brad Moulton 102 6 WSH 137
83 6 4 Sean Smith 101 6 WSH 136
30 8 5 Hugh MacPhie 100 6 SJS 134
38 9 5 Jessica Thompson 99 6 SJS 134
60 11 7 Tim Smith 98 5 WSH 129
5 6 8 Desmond Desrosier 101 3 WSH 123
25 16 8 Fred McCutcheon 95 5 WSH 123
1 2 10 Connor Brewster 107 2 DAL 121
76 4 10 Molly McNulty 102 3 DAL 121
138 27 12 Matthew Pledger 86 6 DAL 119
14 9 13 Aaron Rowe-Jardine 99 4 STL 118
55 20 13 Alan Eng 89 6 STL 118
5 11 15 Todd Beaman 98 3 WSH 117
30 11 15 Jordan Ungerman 98 3 WSH 117
9 14 17 Vincent Galante 97 3 DAL 116
38 17 17 Joel Kronis 90 5 WSH 116
202 36 17 Stuart MacIntyre 83 6 SJS 116
184 60 20 Colin Kennedy 78 7 SJS 115
60 27 21 Joel Greenstein 86 5 STL 113
106 30 21 Brett Kirkpatrick 85 6 PIT 113
38 17 23 Lanny Cardow 90 3 WSH 110
90 65 24 Mark Norman 77 6 PIT 109
2 15 25 Andrew MacIntyre 96 2 WSH 108
83 20 25 Terry Hoey 89 3 WSH 108
83 20 25 Jamie Sarner 89 3 WSH 108
19 20 25 Randy Stewart 89 3 WSH 108
112 20 25 Don Colangelo 89 3 WSH 108
90 30 30 Graham Haines 85 3 WSH 104
106 32 30 Ryan Thompson 84 3 SJS 104
5 17 32 Becke Gainforth 90 3 WSH 103
19 25 32 Shane Davey 88 3 WSH 103
38 50 34 Paula Santin 80 4 DAL 102
60 88 34 Nigel Fowler 72 6 PIT 102
55 36 36 Scott Poitras 83 3 WSH 101
90 42 37 Todd Foster 82 3 LAK 100
60 32 38 Andrew Ryan 84 3 ANA 99
60 32 38 John Thompson 84 3 STL 99
83 36 40 Fred Slade 83 3 ANA 98
38 36 40 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 83 3 WSH 98
76 36 40 Martin Lefebvre 83 3 WSH 98
171 88 40 Peter Tanner 72 5 PIT 98
3 25 44 Robin Martin 88 2 WSH 97
50 32 44 Drew Battison 84 2 CHI 97
50 46 44 Pasqi Porco 81 3 CHI 97
30 27 47 Mark Brewster 86 2 NSH 95
60 46 47 Gareth Neilson 81 3 ANA 95
83 95 47 Mitch Wexler 71 5 PIT 95
138 110 47 Julian Vardy 69 5 ANA 95
112 54 51 Ron Ego 79 3 STL 94
60 54 52 Aaron Pretto 79 3 WSH 93
10 42 53 Manuel LeBlanc 82 2 WSH 91
5 54 53 Chris Bulpit 79 2 WSH 91
121 60 53 Jonas Struthers 78 2 DAL 91
60 71 53 Lindsey Baldwin 75 3 WSH 91
55 71 57 Samara McAdam 75 3 ANA 90
121 71 57 Vince DiNucci 75 3 ANA 90
121 71 57 David Schamma 75 3 WSH 90
151 95 57 Sonia Speciale 71 3 ANA 90
10 50 61 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 80 2 WSH 89
76 60 61 Sal Scarfone 78 2 ANA 89
138 68 61 Martha Gill 76 2 ANA 89
14 68 61 Scott Munnoch 76 3 PIT 89
131 78 61 Shannon Brewster 74 3 STL 89
19 36 66 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 83 1 NSH 88
14 46 66 Davin Suen 81 1 CHI 88
76 82 66 Fraser Macdonald 73 3 WSH 88
208 95 66 Norrin Ripsman 71 3 LAK 88
38 68 70 Laura Tackaberry 76 2 WSH 87
106 78 70 Alexander Bondarenko 74 2 WSH 87
138 78 70 Ryan Chirnomas 74 2 WSH 87
131 102 70 Scott Lee 70 3 WSH 87
38 65 74 Gavin Bailey 77 2 WSH 86
131 95 74 Samuel Wexler 71 3 DAL 86
90 95 74 Kevin Pinto 71 3 ANA 86
234 116 74 Mike Siegler 68 3 LAK 86
221 159 74 Steve Sealy 60 5 PIT 86
195 149 74 Chiara Cerzosimo 62 6 PIT 86
230 159 74 Donna Thompson 60 6 STL 86
10 50 81 Jacqui Snow 80 1 ANA 85
106 102 81 Andrea De Petrillo 70 3 ANA 85
195 110 81 Ruth Haaima 69 3 WSH 85
214 121 81 Domenic DeMarco 67 3 WSH 85
151 149 85 Shawn Glassford 62 4 LAK 83
214 167 85 Nolan Sarner 59 5 LAK 83
14 42 87 Stanley Tepner 82 0 WSH 82
19 42 87 Bruce Bird 82 0 WSH 82
38 82 87 Ron Wener 73 2 WSH 82
76 82 87 Colin McSweeney 73 3 CHI 82
14 46 91 Blair Phillips 81 0 ANA 81
30 71 91 Stephanie Robichaud 75 1 DAL 81
60 82 91 Douglas Wilkinson 73 2 WSH 81
25 88 91 Oren Meldung 72 2 ANA 81
171 116 91 Milton Howe 68 2 WSH 81
121 125 91 David Lester 66 3 ANA 81
138 125 91 Patrick Gill 66 3 LAK 81
10 50 98 Glenn Zyzanski 80 0 WSH 80
60 82 98 Shawn Robichaud 73 1 DAL 80
60 102 98 David Stemmler 70 2 LAK 80
151 110 98 Dave Poitras 69 2 ANA 80
208 137 98 Harris Beder 64 3 LAK 80
38 54 103 Jeff Brinston 79 0 WSH 79
38 54 103 Andrew Robichaud 79 0 WSH 79
38 54 103 David Loop 79 0 WSH 79
19 71 103 Andrew Rudy 75 1 CHI 79
121 102 103 Brendan Roozen 70 1 ANA 79
151 137 103 Erin Jones 64 3 LAK 79
151 137 103 Tim Sowden 64 3 LAK 79
171 137 103 Claude Gaudet 64 3 LAK 79
171 137 103 Aaron Beder 64 3 LAK 79
30 60 112 Matthew Warner 78 0 WSH 78
25 60 112 Shane Firth 78 0 WSH 78
50 65 114 Sam Fielding 77 0 WSH 77
60 116 114 Christopher Mossey 68 2 WSH 77
171 130 114 Andy Hotson 65 3 PIT 77
38 71 117 Pierre Maxime Gravelle 75 0 DAL 75
50 102 117 Josh Epstein 70 1 WSH 75
60 102 117 David Valenti 70 1 LAK 75
214 197 117 Dave Michael 54 4 LAK 75
19 78 121 Steve Vinette 74 0 CHI 74
106 110 121 Paul Markowski 69 1 ANA 74
184 137 121 Jeff Fox 64 2 CHI 74
151 121 121 Ryan Chin 67 3 CHI 74
138 158 121 Erin McClement 61 3 DAL 74
151 82 126 Zack O'Gorman 73 0 CHI 73
171 174 126 Keith Chappell 58 3 PIT 73
55 88 128 Ethan Craig 72 0 WSH 72
60 88 128 Maria De Marco 72 0 ANA 72
30 88 128 Austin Neilson 72 0 WSH 72
60 88 128 Owen Thompson 72 0 DAL 72
83 121 128 Ian Winsor 67 1 WSH 72
171 125 128 Angela Yanyk 66 1 LAK 72
138 125 128 Marco Pazzano 66 1 WSH 72
138 125 128 Adam Bloedow 66 1 DAL 72
184 180 128 Vince Pileggi 57 3 LAK 72
25 95 137 Laura Speciale 71 0 CHI 71
25 95 137 Pierre Allard 71 0 ANA 71
112 121 137 Corey Jocelyn 67 1 DAL 71
90 149 137 Leo Gaudet 62 2 LAK 71
195 186 137 Carl Pledger 56 3 LAK 71
138 186 137 Joy Smith 56 3 LAK 71
208 192 137 Eli Hammerman 55 4 STL 71
90 102 144 George Smith 70 0 WSH 70
30 102 144 Avery Spedding 70 0 WSH 70
60 130 144 Michael Sheahan 65 1 WSH 70
90 180 144 Lee Beech 57 3 CHI 70
245 192 144 Stephen Weir 55 3 STL 70
55 110 149 Joey Speciale 69 0 CHI 69
90 110 149 Sean Sargent 69 0 WSH 69
163 159 149 Peter Jay 60 2 WSH 69
90 159 149 Luke McEachnie 60 3 PIT 69
221 211 149 Jim Dart 50 4 PIT 69
131 116 154 Aron Slipacoff 68 0 WSH 68
50 116 154 Neil Poitras 68 0 WSH 68
184 149 154 Matthew Brenner 62 1 WSH 68
112 192 154 Kento Onishi 55 3 ANA 68
163 202 154 Harper Christie-Allard 53 3 CHI 68
241 219 154 Michael Lau 49 5 STL 68
138 174 160 Brandon Kubis 58 2 ANA 67
221 205 160 Gwen Clark-Smith 52 3 DAL 67
159 180 162 Evan Hoey 57 3 PIT 66
90 130 163 Matt MacDougall 65 0 WSH 65
76 130 163 Stephen Craig 65 0 WSH 65
90 130 163 Luke Borda 65 0 WSH 65
171 130 163 Oliver Porebski 65 0 DAL 65
90 130 163 Brian Secord 65 0 WSH 65
184 159 163 Jean Glassford 60 1 DAL 65
184 197 163 Denise Allard 54 3 ANA 65
234 211 163 Siyeon Lee 50 3 DAL 65
195 211 163 Ruth Beder 50 3 ANA 65
131 137 172 Trish Robichaud 64 0 CHI 64
112 137 172 Kovi Smolack 64 0 WSH 64
90 137 172 John Upper 64 0 WSH 64
121 137 172 Aaron Allard 64 0 CHI 64
163 159 172 Judy Kruger 60 2 WSH 64
234 219 172 Jordan Katz 49 4 LAK 64
171 147 178 Mel McNulty 63 0 DAL 63
121 147 178 Jay Dart 63 0 WSH 63
221 197 178 Ava McAdam-Beder 54 2 LAK 63
195 219 178 Sherri Rowe 49 3 ANA 63
208 226 178 Tracy Smith 48 3 ANA 63
151 149 183 Russell Reed 62 0 WSH 62
163 149 183 Sarah Wardell 62 0 WSH 62
76 149 183 Brock Vandrick 62 0 WSH 62
112 149 183 Mike De Petrillo 62 0 WSH 62
83 149 183 Cooper Levens 62 0 WSH 62
184 186 188 Michael Varriano 56 1 LAK 61
184 205 188 Kevin Boomer 52 2 LAK 61
171 159 190 Brandon Poitras 60 0 WSH 60
121 159 190 Ryan Slack 60 0 WSH 60
221 219 190 Aaron Curtis 49 2 CHI 60
131 209 190 Campbell Clark-Smith 51 3 ANA 60
221 231 190 Diego DeMarco 47 3 LAK 60
131 167 195 Joel Borgida 59 0 WSH 59
138 167 195 Allan Boynton 59 0 LAK 59
90 167 195 Paula Brinston 59 0 WSH 59
90 167 195 Tom Sheahan 59 0 WSH 59
184 167 195 Chris Smith 59 0 FLA 59
121 167 195 Mike Melanson 59 0 WSH 59
230 226 195 Amelia Thompson 48 3 DAL 59
195 226 195 Nathan Slack 48 3 CHI 59
256 241 195 Emma and Andrew Fielding 42 3 PHI 59
112 174 204 Kevin Hinch 58 0 WSH 58
112 174 204 Frank Pileggi 58 0 WSH 58
106 174 204 Paul Baran 58 0 WSH 58
171 174 204 Stacy Martin 58 0 ANA 58
251 238 204 Paul Groba 43 3 LAK 58
171 180 209 Paul Martin 57 0 WSH 57
121 180 209 Edward Levens 57 0 WSH 57
112 180 209 Tim Billingsley 57 0 CHI 57
208 226 209 Allan Curtis 48 3 PIT 57
138 186 213 Della Santin 56 0 CHI 56
202 186 213 Jeff Ware 56 0 CHI 56
184 186 213 Jeff Wener 56 0 WSH 56
163 231 213 Sophie Wexler 47 2 FLA 56
214 235 213 Rob Phillips 45 3 CHI 56
138 192 218 Gabe Pretto 55 0 CHI 55
163 192 218 Kristoff Porebski 55 0 LAK 55
234 236 218 Duncan Campbell 44 3 CHI 55
184 197 221 Al Champsi 54 0 ANA 54
159 197 221 Dryden Craig 54 0 CHI 54
159 202 223 Richard Crowe 53 0 WSH 53
159 202 223 Larry Coole 53 0 WSH 53
221 231 223 Richard Gretzinger 47 1 WSH 53
171 205 226 Bryan Hill 52 0 ANA 52
214 205 226 Ryan McLennan 52 0 LAK 52
163 209 228 Brad Hotson 51 0 DAL 51
202 211 229 Brad EJ Hotson 50 0 DAL 50
241 211 229 David Hart 50 0 LAK 50
202 211 229 Dennis Clayton 50 0 LAK 50
214 211 229 Hung Dang 50 0 CHI 50
202 211 229 Blair Miller 50 0 LAK 50
195 219 234 Patrick Mitchell 49 0 NYR 49
163 219 234 Alvin Gainforth 49 0 WSH 49
208 219 234 Peta Allard 49 0 LAK 49
221 236 234 Linda Veryzer 44 1 LAK 49
241 226 238 Laurena Clark 48 0 LAK 48
234 241 238 Nolan Coole 42 1 NYR 48
250 246 238 James Smith 39 3 DET 48
251 238 241 Andrew Mckenzie 43 1 LAK 47
230 234 242 Dave Spedding 46 0 LAK 46
202 245 243 Noah Bloedow 40 1 FLA 44
214 238 244 Elena Noble 43 0 NYR 43
230 243 245 Rachelle Gaudet 41 0 DET 41
241 243 245 Ted Kennedy 41 0 LAK 41
256 246 247 Judah Gould 39 0 LAK 39
245 246 247 Brendan Hoey 39 0 NYR 39
251 246 247 David Van Kula 39 0 CHI 39
245 252 250 Sanjay Talwar 33 1 FLA 38
249 250 251 James Yanyk 36 0 LAK 36
221 251 252 Thomas Smith 35 0 ANA 35
234 252 253 Jordan Reznick 33 0 NYR 33
251 252 253 Aidan Hoey 33 0 NYR 33
234 252 253 Marie Loop 33 0 LAK 33
256 256 256 Andrew Johnstone 32 0 CHI 32
260 256 256 Mike van Steendelaar 32 0 CHI 32
248 258 258 Brenden Kennedy 30 0 PHI 30
259 259 259 Stacey Hartley 29 0 CHI 29
251 260 260 Sohee Kim 27 0 NYR 27
261 261 261 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 23 0 DET 23