
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
 |
| Roope Hintz quietly put up huge numbers, with 12 points in 6 games. |
A quiet first round turned on its head when two of the three giants were slayed in game 7. Boston (645 picks) and Colorado (581)'s exits knocked out 40% of the pool's picks in one night, leaving just Edmonton (748) among top teams. The Rangers' exit (264 picks) leaves Toronto (286) the top difference-maker, followed by Dallas (173).
The Oilers' saturation via McDavid and Draisaitl leave them essentially moot, but their Round 2 series against Vegas (67 picks) has the most picks at stake. Meanwhile the leaders of the "Didn't Pick McDavid" division are ranked 77th, and 31 of the 37 no-Connor entries are in the bottom half of the pool.
Marie Loop is only the second contestant to reach 80 points in round one (record 85 set last year) and established a cushion that has held through round one. With a full squad of nine (Tor/Edm/Dal) remaining, Marie stands to increase the lead. While Jeff Wener, last year's champ, and Tony Bruno currently hold second and third, it is Anthony Bruno who looks to keep pace while Angela West hopes to make noise (until her loss of three from either Florida or Toronto). Coming up the ranks we may see Stacy Martin and Ronald Fawnstein if Carolina turns on their offence. Where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same as round one? Check out the projection below.
Boston and Colorado's double whammy was a big hit to the pool, but nowhere near the devastation of 2019. That year, all of the top six teams were eliminated - 81% of the pool - and Tampa Bay, the heaviest favourite in pool history, was swept. Revisit the historic devastation here!
This year's 51.5% of players eliminated ranks fourth all-time.
| R1 Picks Lost, Pool | R1 Picks Lost, Team |
| Year | Entries | Picks Lost | Perc | Cup Picks Lost | Perc |
| 2019 | 349 | 2550 | 81.2 | 304 | 87.1 |
| 2012 | 2097 | 1352 | 64.5 | 161 | 69.1 |
| 2003 | 603 | 353 | 58.5 | 48 | 71.6 |
| 2023 | 341 | 1582 | 51.5 | 199 | 58.4 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 2022 | 332 | 592 | 19.8 | 304 | 87.1 |
| 2001 | 40 | 64 | 17.8 | 161 | 69.1 |
| 2018 | 350 | 544 | 17.3 | 48 | 71.6 |
| 2011 | 205 | 271 | 14.7 | 199 | 58.4 |
|
| Year | Entries | Team | Players Lost | Percentage | Cups Lost | Percentage |
| 2019 | 349 | Tampa Bay | 819 | 26.1 | 204 | 58.5 |
| 2010 | 197 | Washington | 444 | 25.0 | 61 | 31.0 |
| 2017 | 273 | Chicago | 578 | 23.5 | 72 | 26.4 |
| 2012 | 233 | Pittsburgh | 491 | 23.4 | 101 | 43.3 |
| 2003 | 67 | Detroit | 133 | 22.1 | 17 | 25.4 |
| 2003 | 67 | Colorado | 131 | 21.7 | 16 | 23.9 |
| 2023 | 341 | Boston | 645 | 21.0 | 147 | 43.1 |
| 2006 | 104 | Detroit | 194 | 20.7 | 27 | 26.0 |
| 2023 | 341 | Colorado | 581 | 18.9 | 23 | 6.7 |
| 2009 | 185 | San Jose | 302 | 18.1 | 55 | 18.1 |
|
Performance by year (top 4; bottom 4); Worst first-round upsets in pool history (top 10)
Hampus Lindholm is the clear-cut biggest bust for 2023, with no points for his 49 owners. After a 53-point regular season, Lindholm was expected to do something in the playoffs this year.
Biggest busts over the years: 2023 - Lindholm; 2022 - Huberdeau; 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Major players on their way out: Pastrnak, Bos, 229 picks; MacKinnon, Col, 207; Rantanen, Col, 128; Marchand, Bos, 112; Makar, Col, 195; Ullmark, Bos, 147; Fox, NYR, 90; McAvoy, Bos, 58; Zibanejad, NYR, 58; Panarin, NYR, 58; Shesterkin, NYR, 46; Georgiev, Col, 32.
With upsets galore in round 1, Round 2 shows the brutal nature of the divisional playoff picture. I did not see round 1 coming including the big one FINALLY the leafs slaying their demons and getting over their fear of the second round. On top of that the best NHL regular season point getters of all time Boston Bruins going out blowing a massive 3-1 series lead. The Reigning Stanley Cup Champions Colorado Avalanche also going in seven and the New York Rangers waiting a massive trade deadline essentially throwing away many future pieces. The unsung hero in The Rangers series essentially bailed out a slow start from the Devils: Akira Schmid leading 14 Pool points and 2 shutouts including a massive 4-0 blanking in Game 7. I would look for more upsets to come continuing to ride the Devils over the Hurricanes, and Edmonton over Vegas, On top of seeing favourites Toronto and Dallas moving on. Despite getting eliminated I believe Mathew Tkachuk will continue to play a massive role in a series that goes deep against Toronto. As well I don’t believe Connor Mcdavid has hit his playoff stride, I would expect both of them to come up big in their series. Only 25 people have 9 players left including Pool Leader Marie Loop, The dominance that she has shown will likely continue riding a hot Dallas team and Roope Hintz who was the first round leading forward scorer.
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Roope Hintz |
DAL |
12 |
6 |
| Matthew Tkachuk |
FLA |
11 |
8 |
| Mitchell Marner |
TOR |
11 |
100 |
| Leon Draisaitl |
EDM |
11 |
264 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi |
BOS |
10 |
3 |
| Brad Marchand |
BOS |
10 |
112 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
10 |
128 |
| Connor McDavid |
EDM |
10 |
304 |
| Chris Kreider |
NYR |
9 |
5 |
| Auston Matthews |
TOR |
9 |
91 |
|
| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Evan Bouchard |
EDM |
10 |
26 |
| Devon Toews |
COL |
9 |
10 |
| Brandon Montour |
FLA |
8 |
6 |
| Dmitry Orlov |
BOS |
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Akira Schmid |
NJD |
14 |
0 |
| Jake Oettinger |
DAL |
9 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Teams |
| Edmonton | 748 | 63 |
| Toronto | 286 | 53 |
| Dallas | 173 | 11 |
| New Jersey | 97 | 3 |
| Carolina | 92 | 9 |
| Vegas | 64 | 2 |
| Florida | 21 | 1 |
| Seattle | 6 | 0 |
|
| Boston | 645 | 147 |
| Colorado | 581 | 23 |
| NY Rangers | 264 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay | 56 | 3 |
| Los Angeles | 12 | 1 |
| Winnipeg | 11 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 0 |
| NY Islanders | 5 | 0 |
|
Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Roope Hintz would get another 12 points, while Jake Oettinger would again get four wins and a shutout.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
|